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Theres Nothing Xbox Can Do to Close Gap Between PS4, Says Pachter
- Thread starter Cow Goes Moo
- Start date
Sorc3r3r
Member
Yep.
Capitalising on the 360 was the only chance for MS to have their brand on par with PS on the world's market.
Should have been the moment to release a box to lock down the audience they gained, pushing on the strengths that made the 360 a success.
But MS fucked up badly and i think that there will never be another 360 for them.
30.2m as of mid Nov for PS4, unknown for XB1 but estimated around 15-16m (both WW, to consumers).
ThomasAnderson
Member
To quote the great Rocky Balboa, "I ain't hear no bell."
We're not even half way through this generation, anything can happen. Lets not crown a champ midway through a season.
We're not even half way through this generation, anything can happen. Lets not crown a champ midway through a season.
ISee
Member
Sony sold around 30.2 millions through to costumers at the end of November. Microsoft doesn't give official numbers, but something around 17 millions probably.
edit:
and beaten
To be honest. I might not be over in the us and uk. The rest of the world... *ding*, *ding*, *ding*.
I'm sorry dude. MS has already been KOd. They even lost their chance to get a decent lead in the US. It's over.
Shirkelton
Neo Member
Not really, the PS3 had a lot of fallback territories and in-built playstation brand loyalty across the world that Sony was able to leverage. Xbox doesn't really have that outside of the U.K., U.S. and Australia. There's nowhere for Xbox to turn to in order to make up the numbers.
In Brazil Xbox also has a very powerful presence.
On-topic: I feel that if the console was handled by Phil from the beggining Xbox could be winning the generation EASILY.
The thing with backwards compatibility is that its not too important, but its a plus to keep you on the same ecosystem, if phil was lead and did that before, a lot of people who jumped ship wouldn't have done so. Backwards compatibility is not as important right now because people value where their friends play more than that, and many people have friends who jumped ship.
AdventureRacing
Member
I feel like things will only get worse for MS. Right now the xbone is still ahead of the 360 but I don't think it will be long before it starts falling well behind worldwide. Meanwhile the PS4 continues to widen the gap.
I can see more and more devs particularly smaller ones going exclusive to the PS4. It's the easy option as it gives you a big userbase worldwide and you only have to worry about one platform. The big games aren't going anywhere but as More devs flock to the PS4 and more people want to buy the console their friends have I feel like things will snow ball a bit.
I'm curious to see what MS plans for the future of the Xbox, they have a tought time ahead IMO. The 360 was their big opening and they fucked up completely this gen.
I can see more and more devs particularly smaller ones going exclusive to the PS4. It's the easy option as it gives you a big userbase worldwide and you only have to worry about one platform. The big games aren't going anywhere but as More devs flock to the PS4 and more people want to buy the console their friends have I feel like things will snow ball a bit.
I'm curious to see what MS plans for the future of the Xbox, they have a tought time ahead IMO. The 360 was their big opening and they fucked up completely this gen.
Why just indie devs and not the big devs?
Aren't the indies more likely to want more sales to survive?
Tivor Tontomo
Member
I have no clue why he thinks they can't close the U.S. gap when Sony has not yet found away to break whatever rubberband is holding them from splitting apart.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
Uh, how did they lose their chance to win the U.S.? Until Sony actually does something to break the rubberband and end up solidly in first instead of fast gap closing with slow gap openings, then uh, there's still a pretty good chance.
Woo-Fu
Banned
Maybe if Microsoft implemented more powerful clouds.
Demonstrably weaker hardware at a higher price with the used game fiasco hanging over all of it, almost hard to imagine a worse way to start this generation for Microsoft. Fixing the pricing and the marketing is one thing, making up for weaker hardware when you have a competitor that you can be directly compared to is not so easy.
Demonstrably weaker hardware at a higher price with the used game fiasco hanging over all of it, almost hard to imagine a worse way to start this generation for Microsoft. Fixing the pricing and the marketing is one thing, making up for weaker hardware when you have a competitor that you can be directly compared to is not so easy.
Memorabilia
Member
This doomsday stuff is pretty funny. MS is doing fine all things considered.
Phil and company have done an admirable job recovering in the 3 markets you mentioned. They've circled the wagons and are doing well selling to their strengths. Abandoning weak markets makes sense in the short run. There will be plenty of opportunity to make a harder global push next gen... when they have a better console that isn't hamstrung by design by committee (Kinect = higher cost and less powerful hardware) and the horrible launch. We have to assume that, like Sony transitioning from PS3 to PS4, MS won't make the same mistakes twice.
On a personal note, I was among the large and vocal critics who were pretty angry at how badly Mattrick and co. shit on the 360's legacy and pissed away a lot of Xbox's good-will. During the lead up period before launch I would have bought a Xbone just to toss it off a bridge. But they've done a lot to bring many of us disgruntled 360 owners back into the fold. I like the PS4 hardware a bit more...both in terms of design and capability... but I've really grown to prefer the user interface, online/social connectivity, and overall experience on Xbone. MS has come out swinging with all kinds of killer promo deals. And the Elite console and controller I recently upgraded to are simply awesome.
Ultimately, I think both companies are better when they're in second place. And both tend to make arrogant missteps when in the lead. MS is in try-hard mode right now which is good for everyone because Sony has to counter with better deals of their own. Win, win.
30yearsofhurt
Member
Why does Phil Spencer get a pass mark though?
Wasn't he part of the leadership group that came up with the original xbone plan?
I think it's a little naive to just blame Ballmer and Mattrick.
MS's best chance to take over the US was this year. With price parity and Sony's position to drop price again whenever they want, makes next year almost impossible for MS to shorten the lead, let along taking it.
Sony's 2016 is just too strong.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
He had nothing to do with the plan other than do his job and advertise the plan just like Nelson.
According to him, he did not agree with some of the policies that were put in place.
Tatsumi Oga
Banned
It's a shame though. Didn't MS do really good with 360 worldwide? Well..except for Japan? Is this complete turnaround all due to MS fucking up with their first plans (DRM etc.)? It can't possibly be all thanks to Sony's marketing.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
You don't make any sense. First this year isn't over. To this year the gap before the holidays was even less than last year.
Second MS also has a strong 201, what makes you think, IN The U.S., Sony will have a strong 2016, over MS, based onw hat? personal opinion can't predict outcome, and you also need to remember there won't be a drought in 2016 either.
the only way Sony could signify a blow and win is if they break the rubber band. Another year of a fast decline in the gap and a very slow (but this time without a drought) growth of the gap with some months won, won't be enough to say Sony will be in the lead. Not once has the PS4 even led by 2 million units in the U.S. yet if not mistaken. Let alone the 4-5 they would need to establish a commanding lead.
They've not even stepped in the ring.
Memorabilia
Member
Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but from what I understand Phil's former job didn't entail strategic decision making but rather implementing how to promote what others decided to design. Mattrick was more in a position to sign off on major baseline strategic and design ideas. The ginormous, humorous, tone-deaf fuck up that was the Xbone launch can rightly be laid at Mattrick's feet. Phil took over and the strategy changed. I'm sure there was some crossover, but the smarmy, used car salesman element that Mattrick brought to the table is gone and the change in tone with Phil heading things is pretty obvious.
Tivor Tontomo
Member
What turn around? This gen is barely any different than last, jsut the contraction of the market made the numbers lower.
MS is losing in the same places they lost before, the only difference was two things, one was the year headstart, which was good with the cheaper price, and the fact the market had hit its peak. Seeing the 1.6 million 360 compared to 12 million wiis and 10 million PS3's is basically the same as the 50,000 Xbox One's, the almost 3 million Wii U's and the 2 million PS4's. Just the numbers looked higher on papaer so guys wrongfully think MS did much better.
The only area MS had issues with was America, and that was mostly because of Price, the DRM thing didn't really do much otherwise the launch would have been meh at best. I mean it probbaly helped but not by much. The same thing with the UK, the lack of a cheaper SKU, if not the main SKU being cheap, long-term, hurt the Xbox One sales a few months after launch. Sales didn't really start picking up again until July after the price cut, and then Xbox One blew out the PS4 during the holidays of that same year.
Every other country sans UK, is exactly the same as it was before, just the numbers aren't as big as before mostly do to how the market was. It has zero to do with Sony's or MS's policies outside a small percentage.
Oh, and I guess that late launch in tier 2 countries may have had some effect as well, but while those do ad a chunk its not that significant.
Wait, you actually believe that MS will take a lead in the US this year or something? Anyway, time will set you straight.
Btw, I never said anything about Sony taking a commanding lead. I was pointing out that MS lost their chance this year since all info so far points to a much closer scenario for the holidays than last year. For MS to have a slight chance to "win" the geneation, they need to dominate the US, and that's not going to happen.
Yup in Japan, they faked injury and ran away.
Also a couple of interesting news items recently on XB1 sales.
1) regarding microtransactions in Halo 5... everyone was looking at those as a factor in closing that mystical sales gap between units sold and $400 million. Well, that didn't happen. Only $1 million worth of micro transactions according to gamespot
http://www.gamespot.com/articles/halo-5-microtransactions-have-now-generated-at-lea/1100-6432811/
2) Major Nelson is saying XB1 hardware sales for black friday was the 2nd biggest ever, and increased on last year's sales by 22%. I'm no math expert, but didn't they sell a shit ton of XB1's last BF, so if that number is up by 22% in the US they did very, very well. Maybe Sony did better, but it's definitely a tough call right now.
"and U.S. Xbox One console sales at retail were up 22 percent over the same period last year, making it the second biggest Black Friday week in 15 years of Xbox history in the U.S."
http://majornelson.com/2015/12/03/x...-records-windows-10-gaming-continues-to-rise/
AdventureRacing
Member
The bigger devs are already invested in both consoles and have the resources to support both.
LoveCake
Member
The Pach Daddy is BACK!
I did read that the X1 had sold a lot of units this black friday/cyber monday week but the X1 is the same price as the PS4, the more power - same price rule still applies it seems.
The gap could well close later on but how many are going to buy both, there are so many that have gone from X360 to PS4 in the Gen-crossover what can MS do to get them back.
I did read that the X1 had sold a lot of units this black friday/cyber monday week but the X1 is the same price as the PS4, the more power - same price rule still applies it seems.
The gap could well close later on but how many are going to buy both, there are so many that have gone from X360 to PS4 in the Gen-crossover what can MS do to get them back.
If the indies are making games for PS4 and presumably Windows 10 and Xbox version would be worth the effort.
It's not like they are going to lose money.
You cant compare this year to last year as sony is in a much stronger position. Don't think for one second that microsoft will grt a chance to close the gap this year. Sony widened the gap by almost 600k and they will most likely take this month and december as well. Even if microsoft wins this month and the next, they need to sell more then 600k over sony. Do you really think thats a possiblity? Because if so, you might want to spend some more time with salesGAF and educate yourself. Because noone with a finger on the pulse will agree with you. Its simply not realistic.
Phil Spencer was basically head of Microsoft Studios which included games, entertainment etc. so he nurtured, sought out games, deals, tv etc.so he was definitely part of the vision but not the decider like Mattrick etc. As for strategy, yeah it changed under Spencer's watch but it's a no shit sherlock strategy, the next head was doing that whoever it was. Spencer and the rest still stick to customers didn't get the original vision, not it was wrong and he has a few clear knocks against him with indie game parity and cross platform play lies. Time will tell. Mattrick did himself no favours with the Xbox One reveal and launch but I think he was hung out to dry rather than being the sole destroyer. Microsoft had a vision, it was TV, entertainment, NUads with constant online engagement and games then Mattrick delivered it but consumers pushed back hard and they needed to look like things changed so off he went.
They lost all the momentum they created with the 360. Outside of the USA, Canada and UK Xbox is dying and even in those areas Sony is essentially beating them. Unless Sony screws up they ain't going to win this generation.
Even next gen unless they come up with something game changing or Sony screws up their reveal they will be fighting a uphill battle globally.
Even next gen unless they come up with something game changing or Sony screws up their reveal they will be fighting a uphill battle globally.
I think this will be the case in a few years. I think Windows 7 got the majority of gamers on lock for now. I do agree with what you said though and its already happening. While some indie developers have this emotional complex about Xbox, many others will get on with it because that money is too important to lose.
Also the fact that most indie developers never talk about the sales of their games that have an exclusivity deal is worrying.
JohnnyFootball
GerAlt-Right. Ciriously.
Yep. Take the route Sony did in 2009. Focus on solid first party games.
Seems like they're doing that and it's a great move.
Ol No Bones
Banned
Lol.
There was no fight, it was over before the generation began.
The difference between Sony and Microsoft is that Sony is much quicker at sensing what is hot and what is not.
Microsoft saw the success of the Wii and thought to catch that public as well with the kinect. Big mistake 1
Sony had a similar plan with their camera but they held some chips close to them and didn't go all in.
Right at the reveal they dropped the camera and adjusted the price.
Genius.
Now Microsoft struggled from that moment on because they couldn't react because the path of kinect was never going to catch on and they were always on the backfoot reacting.
Very easy win for Sony.
The only chance Microsoft has for winning the next gen is if Sony drops the ball, because it is now synonymous with gaming as Nintendo was in the eighties.
Microsoft next time has to come out razor sharp, no more betting on half horses, and steamroll Sony with everything they got. That means looking out for the hot games and investing in tying developers to them. No more throwing silly money like on Minecraft, but push gaming forward and not looking back.
This is the only chance they have.
The difference between Sony and Microsoft is that Sony is much quicker at sensing what is hot and what is not.
Microsoft saw the success of the Wii and thought to catch that public as well with the kinect. Big mistake 1
Sony had a similar plan with their camera but they held some chips close to them and didn't go all in.
Right at the reveal they dropped the camera and adjusted the price.
Genius.
Now Microsoft struggled from that moment on because they couldn't react because the path of kinect was never going to catch on and they were always on the backfoot reacting.
Very easy win for Sony.
The only chance Microsoft has for winning the next gen is if Sony drops the ball, because it is now synonymous with gaming as Nintendo was in the eighties.
Microsoft next time has to come out razor sharp, no more betting on half horses, and steamroll Sony with everything they got. That means looking out for the hot games and investing in tying developers to them. No more throwing silly money like on Minecraft, but push gaming forward and not looking back.
This is the only chance they have.
I was gunna say... Sony was at its best when it was backed into a corner
Sony is still good tho, they just had a bit too much kool aid. They'll be back on form once they sober up.
Sensing what's hot? That cell processor wasn't so hot, that PS now isn't lighting no campfires either, Ps Vita caught no wave expect for Japan and some parts of Asia and PS Vue ain't burning no houses down with success.
ThomasAnderson
Member
It's never too late. This gen has another 4-6 years left.
Bold prediction: Microsoft will have the most consoles sold when it's all said and done. Will bump this thread in a few years.
Edit: Replying to the post above. Think we'll be adding PS VR to that list soon, along with move and ps eye.
Are you speaking of US or worldwide?
ThomasAnderson
Member
Worldwide. Everybody can't be a negative nancy.
DasPenguin
Member
No, but they can be realistic. Xbox would have to sell more than twice what PS4 is selling in the U.S. to do that. There is zero chance in rest of the world. That's not negativity, just common sense.
Well ok... If MS buys exclusivity of all Rockstar games, they might close the gap somewhat in Europe. I don't think even that would push them past Playstation.
Nah, the xb1 is doing a lot worse than the 360, particularly germany and nordic countries.
I think Microsoft is not even bothering until they have sort of a relaunch with a Slim Xbox One. That will set the tone for the rest of the generation and lead them into the next. They have to get that right, cleanse the pallet, new games, new IP, nice back catalogue, solid OS and features, no stupid platform decisions, be more open and friendly to devs, good advertising. All that with a nice redesigned Xbox One for $249/£199/249 that is advertised globally, all they can do and think that would put them in a good place. Sony will be doing the same but I think if they do the right things, can't go wrong with either and they'll both do very well in their later years.
What about Japanese devs? Are they worth less than indie western devs?
AdventureRacing
Member
Japanese devs aren't worth less than western indie devs. Japanese devs have less and less reason to touch the xbone. At least last gen it was important for western sales, now that isn't really even needed.
Visualante2
Member
Free online multiplayer might rock the boat.
sechsterangriff
Member
A broken clock is right twice a day?
Angelus Errare
Banned
MS isn't doing that.
Fried Food
Banned
I don't care who wins. Just make better games