TheLaughingStock
Member
That's easy. Robots are coming + massive unemployment = 8% growth over the next decade.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
- Thread starter RustyNails
- Start date
- Status
That's easy. Robots are coming + massive unemployment = 8% growth over the next decade.
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
That second tweet is something a Trumper would say.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
personally hoping for the liberal dream ticket of Mensch/Garland.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
"We hope you don't feel intimidated."
Mr.Shrugglesã
Banned
Poodlestrike
Banned
I mean, no deader than it is right now.
Mueller's actual ability to do anything against this admin is minimal; as things stand, they have immunity by majority. All we can hope for is more political weight around their necks, making it easier to take back the House in 2018 and the Senate/WH in 2020. Firing Mueller adds a LOT of weight, possibly more than letting him investigate would do. Especially since you'd probably see a massive wave of leaks like we got from Comey.
We might lose the opportunity to indict Sessions, Flynn et al on whatever shit they got up to, but odds are good Trump just pardons them and then we're back to square 1 where Republicans refuse to perform oversight on a Republican president.
Emerson
May contain jokes =>
It's not like I've never said this before but I really do think firing Mueller would have to be the end. The Republicans have basically latched onto him just hoping against hope he doesn't come back with anything serious. But they've already praised to heaven and back his integrity and independence and the importance of him being able to do his job.
The Republicans still have to strip health insurance from over 20 million Americans and cut taxes on the very rich. So even if Trump fired Mueller tomorrow, I don't think they'll do a damn thing.
Poodlestrike
Banned
Like being massive, stinking hypocrites ever gave them a moment's pause before.
Emerson
May contain jokes =>
I'm not exactly going to stick my neck out to defend the GOP, but let's recall that 2 Republican Congressmen publicly called for Trump's impeachment after he fired Comey. The pressure built up extremely quickly after that and was only relieved due to Mueller's appointment.
Poodlestrike
Banned
Oh, 2 of them? Wow.
2 whole Republicans.
Two
T w o
They called for it so as to get political cover by supporting a thing they knew would never happen. Nothing more.
Yeah, this is how I've felt about this whole thing all along. Republicans have no shame, and there is no scenario where they decide turning on Trump is better for their chances than deflection. It's also why I keep trying to convince people not to get their hopes up for impeachment/acting like it's only a matter of time, and instead hope for D majorities across the board in 2020.
Emerson
May contain jokes =>
No scenario?
If overall Republican approval ratings of Trump dropped to 50%, you think they'd still stump for him?
No, they wouldn't. Most of them hate him. They're afraid of being voted out. If/when they feel the math supports it they'll turn against him. They're cowards, they're not Trump diehards.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Dont you think there's a good chance that Republicans would see a D/D/D wave coming and get rid of him to limit the damage?
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I don't believe Congress needs to take action if Sessions/Flynn were caught colluding with Russians, no? Isn't that a crime that Congress doesn't have any say in? I thought the only thing Congress could do was start the impeachment.
That said, I have a feeling anything that gets Trump is going to be from Schneiderman in NY. He's investigating the Trump Foundation as well as Eric Trump's charities now, and that would be outside the jurisdiction of Congress.
The scenario you described won't happen. That's what I'm saying. The math won't support turning on him because their base are Trump diehards, and they have and continue to encourage that through media demonization. They can't control the monster they created.
It's a lose-lose for them. They may indeed see the wave coming, but getting rid of him doesn't mitigate the damage, it exacerbates it. If they stick with him they at least hold the base and some of them survive. If they turn on him, they loose that base and gain absolutely nothing. They're left with nothing and nobody is safe.
Autodidact
Banned
Yep. The IC (and NY AG, probably) have set their sights on Flynn. Even if Trump ends Mueller's investigation prematurely, Flynn will still be indicted and charged. Trump may pardon him, but he's gotten in too much shit to make a clean escape. Ditto Sessions, who could also be indicted if the IC has a case against him.
As you say, Schneiderman might very well bring state charges against the sons, Kushner, and even Flynn - charges that Trump can't pardon. Mueller's termination would temporarily delay but certainly wouldn't end the proceedings. Something will happen to someone. I only fear that we'll get more Iran/Contra than Watergate, where the President looks shady but ultimately gets off.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Schiff just invited Trump to testify before Congress under oath.
Poodlestrike
Banned
Y'all missing a key point here. Trump die-hards make up a huge portion of the Republican primary electorate. Even in the face of a D/D/D wave, they might think that they've got better odds of holding their seats against primary challenges (and thus, the ever-fruitful incumbent advantage) by sticking by Trump than they do trying to woo anti-Trumpers in the general election by moving against him.
If Trump pardons Sessions, Flynn, etc. then the only real remedy is impeachment.
VendettaRed07
Member
Emerson
May contain jokes =>
Based on the primary math I'm gonna say Trump's base comprises no more than 50% of the Republican voting pool, so it's pretty in line with what I said.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Absolute majority: 289
Sweet Jesus. Has something like this happened before I'm French politics? Dude started his own party and not only won himself but a wave in parliament.
VendettaRed07
Member
Gurgelhals
Member
Absolute majority: 289
There's your strong and stable majority right here.
Edit: FN in the single digits. Yes!
jack_package_200
Banned
Oh Macron you stunning son of a bitch!
Absolute majority: 289
Looks like Macron squeezed all the Orange out of Donald's hand.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
To find the truth about Donald Trump, click here.
Like, um, that second tweet is patently untrue, so by all means stick with that narrative.
Tranqueris
Banned
Schiff should just say that he's inviting him to talk about his bigly electoral college win under oath.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
You mean like his promise to give 450 to every poor 18 year old to spend on "culture"? Lol.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Projections are in the 32-33% range.
Gurgelhals
Member
32% actually.
And the FN lost a third of their voters between the first round of the presidential election and this
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
how did France create a system more broken than the electoral college32% actually.
And the FN lost a third of their voters between the first round of the presidential election and this
It's all runoffs though, no?
Macho Madness
Member
Turnout apparently also way down in France at 48%. Was 57% in 2012.
So Macron's legislature will have won somewhere in the teens percentage wise of the French electorate but have a huge majority.
So Macron's legislature will have won somewhere in the teens percentage wise of the French electorate but have a huge majority.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
sure, but any system where the preferred party of only 32% of the country is projected to get at its lowest 67% of the seats is absurd and far more broken than even our system, where the candidate receiving 2% less of the vote is the winner.
People can talk about the death of the left here but Macron's only getting 12 more points than PS/Melenchon's parties combined but is getting approximately 11x their combined representation.
I mean FPTP is not a super great system but underneath it Corbyn got about 40% of the vote and 40% of the seats.
Today but probably slowly if last year's primary was anything to go by.
Gurgelhals
Member
I don't see a real problem here. Every single member of the national assembly will have been elected with an absolute majority due to the runoff next Sunday. I agree that it is still a bit of an odd system for a legislative election (single-round proportional representation for the win), but it's still infinitely better than the archaic FPTP system of the US and the UK.
I'm not sure why we should all be cheering the death of the left in France. Macron and his party aren't even center-left, they're well to the right of Clinton AFAIK. I mean, obviously I'm glad they won rather than the far right, but it still doesn't exactly feel like an outright victory.
I believe he grew his base within the party after securing the nomination. Weren't the evangelicals the faction propping up Cruz, for example, and now are among the most ardent Trump supporters? In a perceived fight between the democrats and "mainstream media" against their own president, even most republicans who didn't vote for Trump in the primary will defend him. They don't live in the realm of facts or reality, so it doesn't really matter what comes out.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
It's not broken, those candidates have to break 50% in their constituencies. If they don't, they head to runoff next week. French system is better than ours for exactly this reason: it allows for both multiple parties and needing a hard majority.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
only ~32% of French voters in a low turnout election have their first preference as Macron's party, but they will receive an incredible majority of seats that will give them total control over the government. The two left parties will only receive a combined 12% less than Macron's party but will receive about 1/11th the legislative power. That's far more broken than FPTP.
jack_package_200
Banned
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