Zombie James
Banned
PSP > DS again? Umm, why?
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Media Create Sales 2/18 - 2/24
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
bcn-ron said:
I actually wanted to take you up on this, rather than point out how much of a schmuck twat you are in this post. Rather, I'll post the following for you to digest as you will:
Code:
WEEKLY SALES 01-01-08 - 02-25-08
360 Wii PS3
18,235 195,331 69,944
9,035 93,708 25,531
7041 86,395 21105
7,365 83,754 19,996
6,130 65,740 18,727
4,811 78,550 23,431
5,210 63,618 20,676
4,183 78,506 19,315
[B]62,010 745,602 218,725 <-- TOTALS[/B]
Code:
WEEKLY SALES 12-31-08 - 02-24-08
360 Wii PS3
9,763 207,797 64,183
4,690 84,530 38,907
4,552 81,638 38,117
4,296 74,544 34,363
6,060 94,473 41,796
3,615 81,737 23,985
2,198 78,583 17,637
2,001 63,504 14,060
[B]37,175 766,806 273,048 <--- TOTALS[/B]
Code:
2008 TOTALS PERCENTAGE OF 2007 TOTALS
360 Wii PS3
59.95% 102.84% 124.84%Wow. The PS3 is really 25% up on the year!!! It's also down 25% the past two weeks!! WHATEVER COULD IT MEAN? Look closer, and don't let your own math fool you. What would a 25% increase year on year for the first two months mean for the Wii? That would be a 187k unit increase, or over 8 weeks an additional 23k units per week. That would be ridiculous! But the Wii didn't hit anywhere close to that, but it did see a 3% increase year on year. Still, an incredible feat. (it sold 775k in January and February of 2007)
What does a 25% increase year on year for the PS3 mean? And why do you think it is significant? The PS3 sold 218k units in January and February of 2007. That would be a 54k increase, around 7k unit increase per week. Not as big of a deal as you thought, huh?
Let's put it this way. Wii's 2.84% increase amounts to an 18k unit increase. The PS3's 25% increase amounts to a 54k unit increase. Somehow a 3% increase for the Wii equals one third of PS3's 25% increase. It doesn't seem fair honestly. So what was the point of your aside? Oh, that's right. I was pulling two weeks out of the year because of "my bias." Numbers don't lie brother. Year on year, both consoles are tracking REMARKABLY CLOSE to last years numbers. The PS3 is tracking SLIGHTLY higher, but I contend that the past 3 weeks 99% match for both the Wii and the PS3 shows something far different:
That I was exactly fucking right, and the Sony is up shit creek without a paddle. 25% up for the year, 25% down for the week. Nobody cares, because it's extremely shortsighted. My point stands and you have been rebuffed:
Panther-God-Damned-Lotus said:
The Hermit
Member
Whoa, never had seen Panther pissed before... scary.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
CHART FRENZY RESUME
Zombie James
Banned
You have awesome graphs & charts, PantherLotus. Why not do the same thing for NPD and worldwide numbers?
Tyrone Slothrop
Banned
i cant wait for DQIX to come out so i can see if the DS has plateued or not
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
_leech_ said:
1. While I find the poster with whom I just humiliated entertaining, the ability to do that within 4-5 posts is important. Even though that I can appreciate his point (what's your definition of extremely close? is 7k units per week not close?), I don't have the patience for the pure idiocy that exists in the NPD threads. At least this guy is trying.
2. Not enough data. I have 65 weeks of data accumulated from Media Create for this generation. I can see ups, downs, and even the most minor of dips and bumps that make these discussions far more interesting. It's the same reason I like fantasy baseball more than fantasy football. Somebody that does his homework in baseball will be rewarded over time with over 160 chance to get it right. In football, you only get 14 or so shots (including the last couple weeks for playoffs).
3. The way NPD was taken away from neoGaf, then mr. sonycowboy (as bad as any drohne or drinky at one point) promoted out of nowhere, and then an extreme drop in actual data released...it all went down funny to me. I'd rather choose not to be a part of that and participate with that data in other ways in other places.
4. Not enough attention. If you didn't know, I'm a bit of an attention whore and I live for every moment that my work gets noticed. NPD simply doesn't reward for at all. Here, I feel like I really contribute and my stuff is appreciated.
Thanks a lot though. Every time somebody notices my work, it makes me feel like I'm not wasting my time.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
^ yes, i am a sony fan. and my opinions on the situation are my own and would prefer not to share them.
I agree with this. Simply pointing out that Sony should want to track 250%-300% ahead of last year, not "25%!!"
More thoughts I think I think:
1. MGS = 2*Gundabump.
2. Wii will match last year's LTD 100%, +/- 5%.
3. Sony will will pick up speed as next year-end approaches, closing around 150% of last year's LTD.
4. Sony needs to get to $299. NOW.
Lightning said:
I agree with this. Simply pointing out that Sony should want to track 250%-300% ahead of last year, not "25%!!"
More thoughts I think I think:
1. MGS = 2*Gundabump.
2. Wii will match last year's LTD 100%, +/- 5%.
3. Sony will will pick up speed as next year-end approaches, closing around 150% of last year's LTD.
4. Sony needs to get to $299. NOW.
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
PantherLotus said:
i dont see how sony getting to 299 will somehow magically be good for them. its just a number. sure its cheaper, and less than what it is now, but seriously, why not just suggest they get to "99 NOW" instead?
XiaNaphryz
LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
Because at this point in time, getting down to 99 in the Japan market will cause more problems than solve. 299 wouldn't cause as much.davepoobond said:
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
davepoobond said:
:lol
"it's just a number"
I can't believe you would drop that bomb, in this thread. Is it not like numbers are everything here? C'mon man. It's psychological. They could give them away but it's not the point. That 300 dollar barrier is huge, and we ALL know it.
$299 is the sweet spot for hardcore gaming. It might be too late though. Maybe the PSIII-2?
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
CHART FRENZY COMPLETION
DONNY112 REQUEST IMMEDIATE CHART POST NOW
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
PantherLotus said:
"$299" doesn't even exist in japan. They don't go by 299 Yen, do they? its something magical like 34,000 yen or whatever
XiaNaphryz
LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
Now you're not even trying. Haven't tjhooker and company taught you better?davepoobond said:
PantherLotus said:
Winner! You get an S ranking.
And way to dole out the ownage.
I also want Sony to do well. I had some of my favorite gameing moments with the PS2. And the PS3 has the tech to do some amazing things. But as Panther said, the numbers don't lie. And claiming that the tide is turning or that Sony's current performance is good is mearly wishful thinking.
True, trends can occasionally chage unexpectedly but the expected trend is that Wii will contunue to dominate and PS3 (while possibly doing better than last year) will remain a distant second.
I'm not arguing that that is a good thing, just that that's how things are weather we like it or not.
Open your eyes.
squatingyeti
non-sanctioned troll
PantherLotus said:
I thought I was the only one who remembers this. Maybe everyone else just became fearful after he became a mod. It is strange how he has changed though. He seems fairly balanced now, or he just doesn't let the old side show.
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
XiaNaphryz said:
as if i'm somehow equatable to the likes of them...
They aren't tracking "extremely close". A strong start followed by a sharp fall is not the same kind of tracking as a flat line, even when the sum total ends up close. More importantly, the conclusion that tracking will "continue" to stay close is a false one when tracking hasn't been close to begin with.Fredescu said:
What 7k difference are you talking about anyway?
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
bcn-ron said:
:lol
The same difference you seem to be taking so seriously.
7k per week * 8 weeks = 56k units. The difference between last year and this year. Not sure what you're not getting, other than you have a difference of opinion about what "extremely close" means.
I mean, what are you even debating here? Closeness? If you can't see it, you never will. The truth is smacking you in the face like a cosmic 2x4, and I'm swingin it. If it doesn't wake you up with some clarity, I'll just have to get a bigger stick.
I think that may be fairly unlikely.PantherLotus said:
That'd make it one of the biggest jumps for the system. I think maybe even the biggest.
I'm not quite sure how much of a bump the PS2 got from MGS 2/3, but I know that the games themselves don't usually match Everyone's Golf, Winning Eleven, or Dynasty Warriors.
Also with Dynasty Warriors 6, it got a the 40GB and the White model. I'm not completely sure if it was bundled or not with the game.
I don't think MGS4 would push it anywhere near that much.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Busaiku, perhaps I was being a bit bold on that prediction, which would come out around 100k. I think it will fit somewhere between the gundabump and 100k. I must confess I know little about MGS sales as a series.
Busaiku said:
Did Sony announce an MGS bundle for Japan? If not, I'd think they'd try to release some sort of bundle or revision around that time (new color, whatever) to get some combined momentum going, instead of just relying on the game itself to move systems. Though I don't know how big MGS is in Japan generally.
But it's not 7k every week. That's just an average that ignores the much larger fluctuations between the data points that we both have. The curves look completely different. The PS3 January performance was not "extremely close". January 2008 was much stronger than January 2007 (+40% by my reckoning). The February performance was not "extremely close" either, as Feb 2008 is 11% down from Feb 2007, and the most recent data point is even 27% down from last year. This is all detail information you throw out deliberately so you can hold onto your false "it's extremely close, so it will probably stay extremely close" projection.PantherLotus said:
The PS3's sales are trending downwards right now, and the correct projection would be an even weaker March performance. Tell me for whom I am spinning right now, if you think my biases cloud my ability to analyse the data.
Wow. Look, I understand you being in discomfort when your bullshit spin gets challenged. The most effective cause of action for you would be to stop posting bullshit spin. Getting angry and flailing your arms around like this doesn't help your argument at all.PantherLotus said:
Keep doing your graphs. Stuff the shitty analysis and the insults when someone disagrees with you.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Yeah, those curves look completely different. One looks like a really steep decline, the other looks like a REALLY steep decline. Way to defend your ideas, schmuck! 
Tideas said:nope. MGS4
Wait, why would sales rise next week (or actually, this week) from the MGS4 announcement...wouldn't they rise when it was actually released? It's not like people didn't know it was coming out this year and were just waiting for the release date announcement to get a PS3 or something...
Some people (myself included) thought announcing the MGS4 bundle for the US 4 months in advance might actually hurt PS3 sales in the short term, in that people might hold off on buying one until the MGS4/DS3 bundle comes out, since it seems to be a superior value to current bundles. Though I can kind of see Sony's logic now - maybe announcing it 4 months in advance gives people time to save up and will make those who are on the fence less likely to jump to another console in the meantime.