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[Rancid Mildew]

*shrug* you never know, haha.

This reminds me of that time when some people thought that the hype from GDC and Gamer's Day 2007 would cause a noticeable spike in PS3 sales globally. If that didn't work, the announcement of a MGS4 bundle won't do anything.

 

[Phife Dawg]

Why?

A game which sells as few copies as We Love Golf suddenly becomes a million seller in Japan because it's bundled? Why would that be?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

The Wii has already been grounded once this generation. It still has very high sales, but it actually comes down with a lack of new content.

The DS didn't for a long ass time.

Wii's late-2007 lull was smaller than DS's early-2005 lull. I've capped these images at 50K so we can easily see when they dipped below.

DS 2005, Famitsu
Wii 2007, Famitsu

Of course, early 2005 was before DS became really huge to begin with.

Has Nintendo EVER officially bundled 3rd party games with their hardware? I personally can't recall that, myself.

Sure. Both FF Crystal Chronicles games have come in bundles with "crystal white" hardware, for instance. Really, seems like most of the DS FFs have had some special edition hardware.

 

[Jocchan]

Has Nintendo EVER officially bundled 3rd party games with their hardware? I personally can't recall that, myself.

I don't know about Japan, but they did indeed bundle Gamecubes with MGS The Twin Snakes and RE4 (I got the latter).

 

[Rolf NB]

So anyone ready to discuss what happened to the PS3 yet, or will we seriously spend the next ten pages with refusal to acknowledge that something has happened?

Are there still any backwards-compatible machines left on the Japanese market? Because that's the theory, notwithstanding the also dwindling PS2 sales: it's not so much that the PS3 is falling off a surprising cliff now, but rather that its good performance in January was not a new, high base level, but rather a temporary bubble, caused by high demand for the old SKU with PS2 BC while supplies lasted. And that's over now. Or something.

 

[Lobster]

A game which sells as few copies as We Love Golf suddenly becomes a million seller in Japan because it's bundled? Why would that be?

Err not now obviously..

I meant from launch.

 

[Pureauthor]

So anyone ready to discuss what happened to the PS3 yet, or will we seriously spend the next ten pages with refusal to acknowledge that [i]something has[/i] happened?

Are there still any backwards-compatible machines left on the Japanese market? Because that's the theory, notwithstanding the also dwindling PS2 sales: it's not so much that the PS3 is falling off a surprising cliff now, but rather that its good performance in January was not a new, high base level, but rather a temporary bubble, caused by high demand for the old SKU with PS2 BC while supplies lasted. And that's over now. Or something.[/QUOTE]

What, exactly, do you mean by 'something'? That it's failing even worse in '08 than it ever did in the start of '07 in weekly sales?

Also, I just wanted to mention that I'm glad the Layton games are hanging on the charts.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Man, Yakuza 3 PS3 bundle is just 10.000 units, just like Gundam Musou, Bladestorm, Shin Sangoku Musou 6 or Devil May Cry 4 ones. The only one which had more than those was Minna no Golf 5.


Btw, Monster Hunter Portable 2 is ~75,000 units away from being the best seller ever on a 2nd position console (currently held by Mario Kart 64). If MHP2G is just an expansion (as in you don't get MHP2 in it) plus adding a likely The Best! budget re-release, it could look good for Capcom to have a 2m seller again.

 

[Koren]

Sure. Both FF Crystal Chronicles games have come in bundles with "crystal white" hardware, for instance. Really, seems like most of the DS FFs have had some special edition hardware.

In Europe, we also got a (really nice) green GC for Tales of Symphonia. There was also a cool red one for Gundam in Japan, and IIRC a silver one for Resident Evil I think.

There was also plently of GBA bundles with third party games, including S-E Seiken, FFTA and Kingdom Hearts.

 

[Mr. Pointy]

Could you imagine what would happen if Nintendo did a limited edition Wii in a different colour?

 

[test_account]

Err not now obviously..

I meant from launch.

You mean the launch of We Love Golf or the launch of Wii?

 

[Phife Dawg]

Err not now obviously..

I meant from launch.

Yes, I know. Or do you mean a forced bundle in the sense that it would be the only Wii SKU available? That would've worked for making WLG a million seller but it's batshit insane as well.

 

[Sir Alemeth]

Could you imagine what would happen if Nintendo did a limited edition Wii in a different colour?

Wait for it...it's inevitable.

 

[Vitet]

WTF@PS3 sales slowing down so much after having such a strong January. Its YTD is 25% higher than at the same point last year, but its weekly sales are 27% lower. That despite it having so many more games, and a much better price. It makes no sense.

edit: this might be Japan's reaction to the removal of backwards-compatibility. The recent good performance could have been a bubble caused by the selling-off of backwards-compatible models. The problem with that theory is that the sales of PS2 hardware are even weaker.

Ps3 is a fad

 

[C.T.]

In Europe, we also got a (really nice) green GC for Tales of Symphonia. There was also a cool red one for Gundam in Japan, and IIRC a silver one for Resident Evil I think.

There was also plently of GBA bundles with third party games, including S-E Seiken, FFTA and Kingdom Hearts.

That was a france only bundle.

 

[Lobster]

Yes, I know. Or do you mean a forced bundle in the sense that it would be the only Wii SKU available? That would've worked for making WLG a million seller but it's batshit insane as well.

Just a limited edition bundle. It would've raised awareness of the game by a lot. Especially with the name "We Love Golf"

I guess we got different views on this though..

 

[test_account]

Just a limited edition bundle. It would've raised awareness of the game by a lot. Especially with the name "We Love Golf"

I guess we got different views on this though..

I guess you mean from the launch of We Love Golf. It would indeed have sold more and people might have been more aware of the title, true that, but i doubt it would be close to a million. Maybe around 100k, also depending on how many bundles that were made

 

[Parl]

nice graph

That illustrates it very clearly. In 2007, PS3 managed to hold steady in Feb, but has been dropping like a rock this year. March looks grim (ignoring possible significant releases and stuff).

Had PS3 trended exactly like it did last year, despite lower total sales thus far, it'd be in a better situation. In other words, PS3 seems to be doing worse than it was doing last year, but that's only based on current trending. We'll have to see if PS3 magically rises to 2007 levels or higher within the following weeks.

:lol

The same difference you seem to be taking so seriously.

7k per week * 8 weeks = 56k units. The difference between last year and this year. Not sure what you're not getting, other than you have a difference of opinion about what "extremely close" means.

I mean, what are you even debating here? Closeness? If you can't see it, you never will. The truth is smacking you in the face like a cosmic 2x4, and I'm swingin it. If it doesn't wake you up with some clarity, I'll just have to get a bigger stick.

Hmm, I think much of this disagreement has been down to misunderstandings of what the term "extremely close" has been used to measure.

The total sales for the year are close, with 2008 being in front, in fact. Of course, 57k sales is insignificant, so it's just a trivial point. What's more important is sales in the longer term, and the shape of the sales trends suggests lower future sales in the short term than in 2007.

For instance...

If Console A sold 100k, then 80k, then 60k, then 40k, you can be like "fuck yeah, 280k consoles in 4 weeks".

If Console B sells 40k, then 50k, then 60k, then 70k, you can be like "220k sales. Good, but it's worse than Console A".


However, Console B shows a growing console and A shows a falling console, which, to me, is a much more significant point than Console A's 60k better sales in those 4 weeks, just as PS3's 2008's declining sales trend is more significant to me than its 57k extra sales thus far this year. So if somebody makes a projection based on these 4 weeks of sales for Console A and B, and claims than Console A will sell better than B because of its 280k over 220k, it'd be very, very odd (well, maybe not odd for GAF). Projections can't really based on that. Projections are based on the trajectory and considerations that will affect that trajectory in the future.

 

[Baron Doggystyle von Woof]

Man, ps3 better start selling. I will buy one when it's cheaper + DS3 controller.

 

[botticus]

So anyone ready to discuss what happened to the PS3 yet, or will we seriously spend the next ten pages with refusal to acknowledge that something has happened?

Are there still any backwards-compatible machines left on the Japanese market? Because that's the theory, notwithstanding the also dwindling PS2 sales: it's not so much that the PS3 is falling off a surprising cliff now, but rather that its good performance in January was not a new, high base level, but rather a temporary bubble, caused by high demand for the old SKU with PS2 BC while supplies lasted. And that's over now. Or something.

You're on the right track, but the October-January performance was stimulated by a new color, a price drop, and new games. However, none of those factors seem to have had a sustained impact on the PS3 demand. Therefore, we're looking at continuing the descent to lower weekly numbers from where it was before all of those.

 

[Stumpokapow]

In case anyone is curious, a linear regression by least-squares for all data excluding week one of the year because it's a clear outlier generates results of:

Wii trending down by 2194 units per week
PS3 trending down by 4515 units per week

The same equation in 2007 gives you results of:

Wii trending down by 3441 units per week
PS3 trending down by 573 units per week

The January - February drop is to be expected, but it hit the PS3 worse than last year and the Wii not as badly as last year. The PS3 is trending down substantially. It cannot be concluded that the Wii or the PS3 are trending positively or negatively versus last year on an overall scale removed from the context of an expected January-February drop because the variance in sales on a weekly basis is high enough that it's difficult to draw such a conclusion in a statistically accurate way.

If you want to regress the data yourself, you can use SRS, Excel, or Minitab, or do the math by hand:

Spoiler

Slope = (n Sigma(xy) - Sigma(x)Sigma) / (n Sigma(x^2) - Sigma(x)^2)
In this case, x should be your week number and y should be your weekly unit sales.

If you want I can repeat this "analysis" (I hesitate to say the word because analysis is drawing a conclusion based on the facts, and this is really just stating the facts with no analysis at all) in a month. By the end of march, it should be possible to draw a much stronger conclusion because variance will have presumably minimized itself over time.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Based on the latest Famitsu numbers...
Wii comparisons: After 64 weeks, Wii is where GBA was at 62.8 weeks (May 31, 2002), where DS was at 56.7 weeks (December 30, 2005), where PS2 was at 87.8 weeks (November 2, 2001), and where PSP was at 126.7 weeks (May 11, 2007).

Looks like Wii will be passing up GBA soon.

PS3 comparisons: After 67 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 15.6 weeks (June 15, 2000), where PSP was at 44.9 weeks (October 15, 2005), where GCN was at 67.2 weeks (December 23, 2002), and where Wii was at 16.6 weeks (March 21, 2007).

Unless Famitsu's next PS3 number is radically different from Media Create's, it will cross paths with GCN again next week.

Based on the latest Media Create numbers...
DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 48.4 / 51.6, bringing total shares to 72.5 / 27.5. At this week's rates, PSP will catch up to DS in 4224.0 weeks (February 6, 2089). If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 255.0 weeks (January 13, 2013).

PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 18.1 / 81.9, Wii's best share since last spring-summer when it was consistently over 80. This brings total shares to 26.2 / 73.8. If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 246.7 weeks (November 16, 2012).

PSP vs Wii: At this week's rates, Wii catches up to PSP in 291.4 weeks (September 25, 2013).

 

[Parl]

PS3 trending down by 4515 units per week

The same equation in 2007 gives you results of:

PS3 trending down by 573 units per week

The January - February drop is to be expected, but it hit the PS3 worse than last year and the Wii not as badly as last year. The PS3 is trending down substantially. It cannot be concluded that the Wii or the PS3 are trending positively or negatively versus last year on an overall scale removed from the context of an expected January-February drop because the variance in sales on a weekly basis is high enough that it's difficult to draw such a conclusion in a statistically accurate way.

Well, that large difference between 2007 and 2008 is a significant point to take into when projecting, IMHO. Forecasting stuff like this is basically guessing no matter how you approach it, but a more controlled way of guessing would be to take this into consideration.

 

[Rolf NB]

What, exactly, do you mean by 'something'? That it's failing even worse in '08 than it ever did in the start of '07 in weekly sales?

Yes. The numbers we've seen in February debunk the theory that the PS3 had reached a higher, stable level in Japan. That looked plausible throughout January, but it doesn't anymore. The fall is much harsher than the usual seasonal trend, or even the PS3's own trend last year (which was, if anything, a bit too front-loaded due to being shortly after launch).
Either something has caused Japan to temporarily be very skeptical of the PS3, pulling Feb performance below a new elevated level of "normal" sales, or, and that's what I find more likely at the moment, the significantly-greater-than-last-year January performance was the temporary thing caused by strange, unaccounted events, and what we're seeing now is actually the new (hardly improved) normal level of sales for the PS3.

 

[elostyle]

Man, Nintendo is really dropping the ball on the DS.

 

[Magicpaint]

Man, Nintendo is really dropping the ball on the DS.

Yeah, first party support has been dropping year on year. Very disappointing.

I hope Soma Bringer sells well.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Well, that large difference between 2007 and 2008 is a significant point to take into when projecting, IMHO. Forecasting stuff like this is basically guessing no matter how you approach it, but a more controlled way of guessing would be to take this into consideration.

Hence why I didn't forecast. The information right now is not able to form a statistically valid projection because it is hampered by very high variance. The conclusion we CAN reach is that, again, the January-February drop was better for the Wii this year and worse for the PS3 this year versus last year.

While a proper CI/PI can't be done based on how little data we have, we can make use of exponentially smoothed time series in order to project. Basically what you do with an ESTS is you predict next week based on the last few weeks, with a disproportionate weight to the most recent data.

Spoiler

One smoothing model would be the following: 5/8*this week + 2/8*last week + 1/8*the week before. A longer model would be: 8/16*this week + 4/16*last week + 2/16*the week before + 1/16*the week before that.

I don't propose ESTS in order to generate a statistically valid conclusion, since your error value will still be so substantially high that it's not worth it, but ESTS is certainly a better predictor that a simple moving-window average (IE it's averaged <x> units over the last few weeks, so it'll do <x> units next week!)

 

[Fady K]

Yeah, first party support has been dropping year on year. Very disappointing.

I hope Soma Bringer sells well.

Me too I dont want this to be like the horrible ASH scene all over again...It would be nice for a 100k on first week - or is that pushing it

 

[Stumpokapow]

Me too I dont want this to be like the horrible ASH scene all over again...It would be nice for a 100k on first week - or is that pushing it

100k first week would be pushing it.

I expect Soma Bringer to do around 250k-300k lifetime, and I have the most bullish prediction of anyone who has predicted. 300k lifetime for a Nintendog game would suggest opening week numbers of 60-80k IMO.

 

[slaughterking]

Me too I dont want this to be like the horrible ASH scene all over again...It would be nice for a 100k on first week - or is that pushing it

It certainly is.

But while we're at it. Where are the 1st day numbers? D:

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

First day numbers

PS2 Gundam Musou Special - 76,000 (150k shipped)
NDS Soma Bringer - 37,000 (~50% sell through)
360 Idolmaster Live For You - 30,000 (LE 28k (~75% sell through), Normal Edition just 2k (~20% sell through))

 

[Fady K]

First day numbers

PS2 Gundam Musou Special - 76,000 (150k shipped)
NDS Soma Bringer - 37,000 (~50% sell through)
360 Idolmaster Live For You - 30,000 (LE 28k (~75% sell through), Normal Edition just 2k (~20% sell through))

Um guys...I dont know what to think of Soma's numbers? Good bad :S

Big numbers for a first day 360 game there.

 

[batbeg]

37,000 on first day is pretty good, right?

I mean hell, its pushing BKO ltd numbers there :lol

Spoiler

 

[RBH]

First day numbers

PS2 Gundam Musou Special - 76,000 (150k shipped)
NDS Soma Bringer - 37,000 (~50% sell through)
360 Idolmaster Live For You - 30,000 (LE 28k (~75% sell through), Normal Edition just 2k (~20% sell through))

Nice first day number for Idolmaster.

I'm also not sure whether the Soma Bringer number is decent or not.

 

[BishopLamont]

We have another WE Wii on our hands on a much larger userbase, pretty decent sell through rate, should finish the first shipment in 3 weeks.

 

[Fady K]

Heck, I think ASH sold better on the first day

 

[Magicpaint]

50% sell through on the first day is decent, I guess. Could be a lot better. Seems like it'll probably only manage 50k first week.

 

[Fady K]

50% sell through on the first day is decent, I guess. Could be a lot better. Seems like it'll probably only manage 50k first week.

I wonder if Nintendo marketed the game properly in the first place >_<

 

[botticus]

Heck, I think ASH sold better on the first day

ASH sold 40k first day, 30% sell-through. Raw numbers might have been marginally higher, but expectations were much higher.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

So I finally got my online data updated with the last three weeks of Famitsu software data. While putting new games into old groups and creating new ones, I finally found it inconvenient enough to find which group was which that I made a page to display them. There are few enough that I didn't bother with a search at present time; using the one in your browser should be fine to find a group if it exists.

300k lifetime for a Nintendog game would suggest opening week numbers of 60-80k IMO.

Soma Bringer, not Soma Fetcher.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

So anyone ready to discuss what happened to the PS3 yet, or will we seriously spend the next ten pages with refusal to acknowledge that something has happened?

 

[Stumpokapow]

Soma Bringer, not Soma Fetcher.

You know as well as I do that 25-50% of lifetime sales being first week is fairly reasonable. Given that it's a handheld title, not an established IP, and by Nintendo, add a little bit. Given that it's an RPG, take away a bit.

I fully admit that I'm being bullish on both lifetime sales and legs for this title, but it's not like I'm projecting non-game-esque 2-3% lifetime sales on week one legs.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Perhaps bolding your typo in the quote would've made my last reply make more sense.

 

[botticus]

You know as well as I do that 25-50% of lifetime sales being first week is fairly reasonable. Given that it's a handheld title, not an established IP, and by Nintendo, add a little bit. Given that it's an RPG, take away a bit.

I fully admit that I'm being bullish on both lifetime sales and legs for this title, but it's not like I'm projecting non-game-esque 2-3% lifetime sales on week one legs.

I expect Soma Bringer to do around 250k-300k lifetime, and I have the most bullish prediction of anyone who has predicted. 300k lifetime for a Nintendog game would suggest opening week numbers of 60-80k IMO.

 

[kswiston]

Well to be honest, he's right. PS3 sales are not extremely close between 2007 and 2008. If 7k represents a 3% difference in total sales for the year, than you could say that the numbers are extremely close between years. If 7k represents 25% of sales that's different. You have to take absolute numbers into consideration. If 360 went from selling 2k-6k every week to selling 9k-13k every week it would be a huge improvement over the norm. DS going from 60k to 67k. Not so much.

In the end though, while a 25% increase is significant, it won't change the fact that PS3 is likely to remain a very distant second in the Japanese console race this year.

 

[ksamedi]

Decent Soma Bringer numbers. It will definitly reach 150k.

And by the way, the PS3 has been performing bad for a while now. The December/January numbers were pretty low, it was obvious it would drop back to 10k levels after the major releases dies down.

 

[ethelred]

Basic math time, guys: the lower your total numbers are, the higher percentage swing you'll see on the basis of negligible overall numbers. If you're selling 3,000 and then you sell 6,000, well gosh, that's quite a percentage increase! And yet still ultimately meaningless.

It is, as Donny is wont to say, statistical noise.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Perhaps bolding your typo in the quote would've made my last reply make more sense.

Hahhaa. I assumed you were belittling me by changing Nintendo to Nintendog and implying I had unreasonable expectations for the legs of the game. I saw the typo, I just assumed you had inserted it.

Now I am the one who has egg on his face!

 

[rpgfan16k]

Idolmaster sold 30,000?!?!?!?

Wow :lol

The funny thing is, this is probably one of the best day one sales of a 360 game ever, but the hardware bump is probably almost nonexistent...

 

[kswiston]

Basic math time, guys: the lower your total numbers are, the higher percentage swing you'll see on the basis of negligible overall numbers. If you're selling 3,000 and then you sell 6,000, well gosh, that's quite a percentage increase! And yet still ultimately meaningless.

It is, as Donny is wont to say, statistical noise.

That's only true for individual data points, or small pools of data. The reason why you can't conclude ANYTHING from the 2008 data we have so far is that it's only been 8 or 9 weeks. However, if after 50 weeks, the PS3 was still up by 25%, it wouldn't be statistical noise, even if the actual increase wasn't THAT big (say 10k units a week on average).

I don't see how you could argue that an increase has the same significance regardless of the base number it's adding to. going from 25k a year to 50k a year in wages is a very significant pay increase. Going from 750k to 775k a year is not not nearly as significant, even if the increase is the same in both cases.