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April 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 12th

donny2112

Member
ITT, predict for the NPD April 2015 retail period (April 5-May 2, 2015) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, May 12th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: April 5-May 2, 2015 (4 weeks, March was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, May 14th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in April:
Summary
Nuttin' much


Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

March's Results (estimates)
1. PS4 ~ 340K
2. 3DS ~ 265K
3. XB1 ~ 236K
4. WIU ~ 85K

March 2014 NPD thread
April 2014 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 

RexNovis

Banned
Will update with predictions later.

[3DS] 151K
[PS4] 195K
[WIU] 47K
[XB1] 141K

For now wohooo excited for another awesome episode of Sales GAF :D
 

donny2112

Member
Welcome back donny.

Should've put it up on Thursday last week. Thought about it then. Saturday through Monday was a blur. Never even crossed my mind until I was getting on to update the 50 books/50 movies and 52 games threads just now. Then I was like "D'oh!" (x.x)
 

Abdiel

Member
Cross posting from the results thread for last month.

I'll reiterate since we don't have a new prediction thread yet:

Through this entire month, in the districts I've checked (always a wide range to try and compensate for varying customer bases) the ps4 consistently outsold the xb1 quite handily. This is just best buy, but we didn't see the same kind of stock issues that seemed to plague Amazon.

I was kind of surprised, the promotion we had with the email coupon for an extra $50 off any xb1 really didn't get a lot of traction in our local stores.

MKX sold very well indeed though.
And for people speculating about Splatoon from the other thread... Preorders aren't the whole story for a game's success or failure, but they're not looking great at this point.
 

Welfare

Member
Lot of sub 250k predictions for the PS4.

Is there any particular reason for such low predictions this month?

The average drop from March to April is ~40%, mainly due to going from 5 weeks to 4 weeks of tracking and April through July just being slow months overall.

For example your 280k prediction would mean the PS4 did 70k per week (4 weeks), when in March it did 68k per week (5 weeks)
 

RexNovis

Banned

Did Nintendo have some major retail release I'm completely unaware of? That WiiU prediction seems incredibly inflated. March was 17k per week but your April prediction is 24k per week. That would be a 40% increase over weekly sales from March NPD.
 
Here are my completely unrealistic predictions for April 2015 NPD:


[PS4] 300K + a nose
[XB1] 200K
[3DS] 200K
[WIU] 65K

Not sure if Spring Break would affect purchasing habits or not.
 
[3DS] 180K
[PS4] 210K
[WIU] 61k
[XB1] 170K

Playing things a little bit safer this month; after a spot on WiiU and 3DS I completely whiffed on PS4... Still a little higher than average Gaf; team optimistic for the win!!!!^^

Edit: Hmmmm.... a 100K drop for 3DS is not very optimistic Gaf... fine. Have some more^^
 

jjonez18

Member
[3DS] 145k
[PS4] 200k
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 150k

EDIT: Revised numbers and a stab at the software top ten. For the hell of it.

1) MKX - (PS4, XB1)
2) Battlefield Hardline
3) Grand Theft Auto V
4) Call of Duty Advamced Warfare
5) MLB 15 The Show
6) Bloodborne
7) Dark Souls II - ( PS4, XB1, 360, PS3, PC)
5) MineCraft
9) NBA 2k 15
10) Mario Party 10

MKX sells over 1m. Dark Souls II SoTFS fails to beat Bloodborne. MLB charts due to a decent second week. Mario Party showing some leg. Other constants like Minecraft, GTA, CoD, NBA. Battlefield spurred by sales.
 
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