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April 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Darth Smurf X
Member
[PS4] 260K
[XB1] 190K
[3DS] 170K
[WIU] 60K
[XB1] 190K
[3DS] 170K
[WIU] 60K
Welfare
Member
What happened in 2009 to make the PS2 sell that much? Was that when it dropped to $99?
edit: yep http://blog.us.playstation.com/2009/03/31/playstation-2-will-be-available-for-under-100/
edit: yep http://blog.us.playstation.com/2009/03/31/playstation-2-will-be-available-for-under-100/
Welfare
Member
Price cut to $99
Oh fudge.
Well I can't bothered to correct it so you're just going to have to make do for now.
slavesnyder
Member
You know, ZhugeEX, you really do the graphs for us.
So, when do you expect the gap to reach and surpass the old maximum? End of August?
Also it's good to have all April numbers in one box. Makes the prediction game not easier, but I get the feeling that I have more info to base my blind guesses on.
Darth Smurf X
Member
I'm gonna be WAAAY off.
Hahahaha! I love that reference
I think it's a tough question. End of August sounds about right but I wonder just how big Halo will be. The launch of Halo 3 saw 3.3m units sold in the first month and 520k Xbox 360's sold, double the previous September.
ODST didn't boost hardware YOY, game sales were also around 1.5m
Reach boosted hardware sales again YOY and sold 3.3m.
4 didn't do much for hardware as it was a November release and late in the gen.
Depends on how well the Batman PS4 will do in June in my opinion. Wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't surpass the old maximum anytime this year if the gap doesn't hit 1 million with June's sales.
__________
I hate saying this cliche line (haha) but it's going to be very interesting. You have many 360 owners making the jump and then there will also be some PS4 owners getting an XB1 for Halo too.
What happens after Batman?
slavesnyder
Member
Halo5 is October, or? So, until then PS4 should widen and widen the gap and establish a new high. After that, when the real season starts, Xbox will try to narrow it again, but this will be 1 step forward after 2 steps back I guess.
Holy bundle, Batman, you are right. This also.
Of course there are so many uncertainties. Add the pricedrop in the room, battlefield and the rumoured COD marketing deal. But this is exactly what I asked. What do you think?
If if all goes against Microsoft, the gap will widen even more then it was last year, and when Halo5 comes around there will be a PS4 price drop (what a nice timing this would be). And they would maybe flatline the delta for a month or two, but not gain any ground.
Microsoft Chad
Banned
Holy crap the Xbox one in December and November looking at that graph holy skippers.
Also confirming my doubts of any console reaching over 250k this month. April is just too slow a month.
Also confirming my doubts of any console reaching over 250k this month. April is just too slow a month.
August is usually a pretty low month for console sales (under 250K). I could see MS introducing a price drop and/or cheaper SKU before the launch of Halo 5 in the Fall; Might help them get October to December for NPD (alongside Halo 5).
Another one! What are they going to do in November with Black Friday and all that? Lower it again?
Correct. But I'm saying that once the gap is back up to where it is, then what happens next? Will we see a repeat like last year where Xbox One sales shoot up in the holiday season. Or will PS4 be able to match/exceed.
If Sony drops the price it should exceed Xbone sales, otherwise it will be behind it. How much depends on how crazy MS feels they want to be.
Are you sure about that? After MCC? You say it quite often.
Yes, I'm pretty sure.
Based on?
I mean, I'm sure there's some. The question is if it's a relevant, significant portion that does it. I would need to see some surveys or data before asserting something like this with any certainty.
slavesnyder
Member
Also, how much panic the will be in Redmond and how much Microsoft is willing to invest in the xbox division.
Halo as THE big title is not allowed to fail. We will see a monster marketing campaign. But if they feel it is necessary to drop the price or bundle their biggest game for free in order to gain some terrain back this is depressing.
slavesnyder
Member
I would say so, too. I guess many former xbox users do not miss the xbox until halo comes around. so, they might grap it when it's cheap, but keep it as their second console.
And that's all I said. I obviously don't know exactly how many but I wouldn't be surprised if it helps in a similar fashion to how MGS4 helped previously 360-only owners get a PS3 during its launch month.
___________
Yep, I agree. I think Halo 5 will help push some PS4 owners to get an Xbox One as a secondary "exclusive box".
____________
I don't doubt that it's doing well. Just wondering how well it will do considering it's a bundle releasing during June (a typically low month for console sales). PS4 doing 350K+ that month would be great.
Microsoft Chad
Banned
The limited edition Halo console is confirmed, so it's impossible for them to give away the game for free for about 6 months to a year after launch.
The most they may do is buy 2 get 2 games free or something at like a target.
Any data on how many 360 owners bought a Ps3 for MGS4?
John Bender
Banned
Very bad/low/weak numbers this month.
And we will hear all the "ugh.... weak sales for the market leader..... not good... consoles dying.... if the market leader has these kind of low numbers...blablablabla doomed" stuff again.
[3DS] 135K
[PS4] 195K
[WIU] 52K
[XB1] 175K
And we will hear all the "ugh.... weak sales for the market leader..... not good... consoles dying.... if the market leader has these kind of low numbers...blablablabla doomed" stuff again.
[3DS] 135K
[PS4] 195K
[WIU] 52K
[XB1] 175K
No clear numbers for that but the PS3 almost doubled the 360's sales that month (NPD); 220K vs. 405K if I remember correctly.
They just bought the 360 version like with Final Fantasy.
Soultaker0220
Member
[3DS] 230k
[PS4] 240k
[WIU] 55k
[XB1] 200k
[PS4] 240k
[WIU] 55k
[XB1] 200k
theprodigy
Member
Microsoft Chad
Banned
Lol oops?
Isn't MGS out in September? I know that game is cross-gen, but the marketing and if Sony sell a limited edition console here in the US, that could also cause a big upswing, though I don't know how it would stack up against Destiny.
But I have a feeling that the Batman LE consoles are going to be a major player for June. The hubub about the DLC and Season Pass on here for AK hasn't really translated to concern in store. We've still had people finding out about the LE console and coming in to ask about it, though we have to tell them it was basically gone within the first two days of in store preorders.
It is and the game will do well but hasn't it already been confirmed that the MGSV console will only be in Japan?
Yeah, I definitely think it may be close to a 2:1 month for the PS4 in June. I just can't really predict what the gap would be since June is usually low for console sales. "High" for June would be 300-350K for the PS4 (or more).
pixelation
Member
Honest question dude, i'm not trying to start anything. But i can't help but notice a pattern in your posts in sales related threads. Is XB your preferred gaming brand?, just curious.
Chobel
Member
They're not going to reveal the bundle (for US+EU) this early, at least they'll wait after Batman Arkham Knight bundle is released.
There are more games on the Xbox One that I'm interested in, hence why I got it over the PS4 (still need a few more exclusives to make me want to get a PS4) but I don't see what that has to do with my posts. My monthly predictions have been very similar to what other people have said and they are mostly realistic as they're based on trends from previous years.
If you want, calculate his predictions against the average and against actual data.
I always see these accusations in these threads. Maybe they are fair, maybe they are not -- but we LITERALLY have the data to say if people are biased (in a statistical sense) or not!
pixelation
Member
It's perfectly fine if he prefers the XB brand, i just couldn't help but notice a pattern, not just with his predictions. Again... nothing wrong with that at all, just something that i noticed.
I know no one, personally that fits that description. All the Xbox fans I know already bought an Xbox One, and most of them got it at launch.
This is anecdotal evidence, of course. I bought my Xbox One when the white Sunset Overdrive version came out.
Your username is oddly appropriate.
The majority of my predictions have had the PS4 on top. Only months in which I predicted XB1 winning so far have been last December, November and March 2014.