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(Hardware) Official April NPD Prediction Thread - closes Friday May 9

D

donny2112

Member
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 4 p.m. EST on Friday, May 9th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

Format:

[360]
[NDS]
[PS2]
[PS3]
[PSP]
[WII]

Examples:

Code: 
Good              Bad
[PS2] 123K        [PS2] 123.5K
[PS2] 123,000     [PS2] 123.000
[PS2] 123000      [PS2] - 123000
[PS2] 123456      [PS2] one-hundred and twenty-three thousand

The Official Software Prediction thread is here.


NPD Release: May 15th @ 4:00 p.m. EST (thread posted around 6:30 p.m. EST)
NPD Coverage: April 6 - May 3 (4 weeks, March was 5 weeks)


March 2008 Results (5-week month) - thanks to NPD and sonycowboy

sonycowboy said:
NPD said:
HW Sales

Hardware Mar-08
PlayStation 2 216K
PlayStation 3 257K
PlayStation Portable 297K
Xbox 360 262K
Nintendo DS 698K
Wii 721K

SW Sales
Top-Selling VG Software - March 2008

Platform Title Publisher Release Date March Units
WII SUPER SMASH BROS: BRAWL NINTENDO OF AMERICA Mar-08 2.7M
360 *TOM CLANCY'S RAINBOW SIX: VEGAS 2 UBISOFT Mar-08 752.3K
360 ARMY OF TWO ELECTRONIC ARTS Mar-08 606.1K
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE NINTENDO OF AMERICA Feb-07 409.8K
PSP GOD OF WAR: CHAINS OF OLYMPUS SONY Mar-08 340.5K
PSP CRISIS CORE: FINAL FANTASY VII SQUARE ENIX INC Mar-08 301.6K
WII GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK ACTIVISION Oct-07 264.1K
360 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K8 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE Mar-08 237.1K
360 *CALL OF DUTY 4: MODERN WARFARE ACTIVISION Nov-07 237K
PS3 ARMY OF TWO ELECTRONIC ARTS Mar-08 224.9K
Click to expand...
Click to expand...


Potentially significant releases from April 6 - May 3:

360 - GTAIV (4/29)
NDS - Pokemon MD: Explorers Darkness/Time (4/20)
PS2 -
PS3 - GT5:prologue (4/15), GTAIV (4/29)
PSP -
WII - Mario Kart Wii (4/27)


Results for Previous Months (thanks to llonesmiz for the Points' links)

January - Units / Points
February - Units / Points
March - Units / Points


Relevant Sales Press Release(s)

Microsoft says hardware sales up 54% week-on-week with GTAIV's release.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Choke on the Magic said:
I've never tried, but here it goes.


PlayStation 2 230k
PlayStation 3 325k
PlayStation Portable 290K
Xbox 360 330k
Nintendo DS 750K
Wii 790K
Click to expand...

BLaZiN PRopHeT said:
PlayStation 2 150K
PlayStation 3 315K
PlayStation Portable 240K
Xbox 360 340K
Nintendo DS 426K
Wii 512K
Click to expand...

If you don't use the format (see the OP), then your prediction will not be counted.
 
T

titiklabingapat

Member
[WII] 698k - the two week major release from Toys R Us(100 per store in some cases!!) in preparation for Mario Kart pretty much seals the deal. Headlines will be "GTA IV smashes records but combined 360/PS3 might fails to outsell the Wii, gaming doomed as Wii Fit looms".

Expected decrease with the 5-4 week month transition but I've never seen so much supply of Wiis, even back during the holidays.

[360] 317k - April was a 5 week month so there is an expected decrease, but is somewhat negated by GTA IV. But the game only had one week of sales so the effect is a bit tempered, but expect the boost to last longer.

[PS3] 283k - Same.

[NDS] 541k
[PSP] 234k
[PS2] 174k
 
A

AniHawk

Member
I'm not sure how big an impact GTA will have for less than a week on hardware sales.

Take the weekly average from March, and multiply it by 3. You get the first three weeks of sales for the month at about 155k for both PS3 and 360. For either to sell over 300k, the weekly average would basically have to triple in five days. More than that would be absolutely crazy.
 
C

Casey120

Banned
[360] 370k
[NDS] 560k
[PS2] 110k
[PS3] 310k
[PSP] 230k
[WII] 490k


PS2 must die now , please die , it's not healthy anymore ... die ...DIeeeee you Zombie MotherFucker ...
 
T

Thunder Monkey

Banned
AniHawk said:
I'm not sure how big an impact GTA will have for less than a week on hardware sales.

Take the weekly average from March, and multiply it by 3. You get the first three weeks of sales for the month at about 155k for both PS3 and 360. For either to sell over 300k, the weekly average would basically have to triple in five days. More than that would be absolutely crazy.
Click to expand...
I thought about that as well.

But what the hey, I can forfeit this months standing for some hope of an even larger month then last.
 
R

Rolf NB

Member
AniHawk said:
I'm not sure how big an impact GTA will have for less than a week on hardware sales.

Take the weekly average from March, and multiply it by 3. You get the first three weeks of sales for the month at about 155k for both PS3 and 360. For either to sell over 300k, the weekly average would basically have to triple in five days. More than that would be absolutely crazy.
Click to expand...
Sounds crazy from that angle for sure. But if you try to guess how many copies GTA IV sold, and then pick a reasonable percentage of conversion to hardware sales, it's not so completely out of reach.

edit: for the sake of argument, 150k consoles "extra" caused by GTA IV with a (IMO conservative) 5% conversion rate would mean 3 million copies of GTA IV would have to sell for that. These figures are probably off, but it's a ballpark that GTA IV might have reached.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
bcn-ron said:
Sounds crazy from that angle for sure. But if you try to guess how many copies GTA IV sold, and then pick a reasonable percentage of conversion to hardware sales, it's not so completely out of reach.

edit: for the sake of argument, 150k consoles "extra" caused by GTA IV with a (IMO conservative) 5% conversion rate would mean 3 million copies of GTA IV would have to sell for that. These figures are probably off, but it's a ballpark that GTA IV might have reached.
Click to expand...

3m GTAs in 5 days? I guess it's possible. The combined userbase isn't really close to what was there for SA. I know VC sold a lot though. III was a bit of a climb. When I worked at Gamestop, there were a lot of people disappointed to find it wasn't coming out for PS2, so maybe they traded up.
 
V

valkillmore

Member
Popping my prediction cherry.

[360] 305k
[NDS] 780K
[PS2] 200k
[PS3] 310k
[PSP] 230K
[WII] 740K

I think the release of GTA4 will see a good bump for Xbox 360 but a better bump for PS3.

Wii is Wii. DS is DS.

PS2 sees a drop off due to uneducated shoppers being all what the fuck I need a new system for GTA4? BuuuuuuullshITTTT! I had a few this week at my store.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
aztrex said:
Popping my prediction cherry.

[360] 305k
[NDS] 780K
[PS2] 200k
[PS3] 310k
[PSP] 230K
[WII] 740K

I think the release of GTA4 will see a good bump for Xbox 360 but a better bump for PS3.

Wii is Wii. DS is DS.

PS2 sees a drop off due to uneducated shoppers being all what the fuck I need a new system for GTA4? BuuuuuuullshITTTT! I had a few this week at my store.
Click to expand...

I can see there finally being enough supply for the Wii in the States, but what makes the jump for the DS from 140k/week to 195k/week? Pokemon?
 
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