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jvm · May 18, 2008

This month's article is up this afternoon at next-gen.biz. (A little earlier than usual, by request of the editor.)

Several things of interest to you guys, perhaps. The NPD Group was gracious enough to give me some historical data on GTA sales. Here's on example of what one can get from those numbers:

Other bits that might be of interest:

One could also ask: What percentage of people who owned a PS2 when each GTA game launched actually purchased that game during its first month on the market? The answers are: 6% for GTA3, 12% for Vice City, and 8% for San Andreas.

For GTA4, we would ask what percentage of people who owned a PS3 or Xbox 360 also purchased the game during its first month on the market? The answer is very impressive: 20% of system owners bought the game. That is, 1 out of every 5 owners of a PS3 or Xbox 360 also has a copy of GTA4. If GTA4 sales remain strong during the next couple of months, we can expect that attach rate to rise.

By looking just at hardware sales and known software sales figures from the top 10, we can establish a minimum that consumers spent on the Wii in April 2008: $280 million. We estimate that at least $100 million more can be attributed to the Wii (from third party software and accessories), putting it close to $400 million, or nearly 1/3 of all videogame dollars spent during the month of April. Add in sales of Nintendo DS hardware (over $50 million) and Pokemon software (over $14 million) along with all other Nintendo DS software and Nintendo could easily have sold in excess of $500 million, nearing a majority of the videogame market for the month. (For the record, we have requested figures directly in the past, but the NPD Group does not supply this data to the press.)

As the graph above reveals, the industry is breaking the records set just a year ago. Already the first four months of 2008 have surpassed the first five months of 2007. Looking further back, more revenue was generated in the first four months of 2008 than was generated in the first eight months of 2005.

Have at it. I'll be back later to see what kind of flames I've accumulated. (Out for dinner with the wife and kids...) Please note errors (nicely, if possible) and I'll try to have them corrected pronto.

Trivia: This is the end of my first year writing about this kind of stuff. I started with May 2007 figures on Gamasutra (published in June 2007). Has been a fun time, if taxing.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December and all of 2007
November 2007
October 2007

avatar299 · May 18, 2008

If the wii failed, would the industry be scared?

iosef · May 18, 2008

Shouldn't that y-axis be "thousands," not "millions?"

reilo · May 18, 2008

GTA4 SOLD NEARLY 600MILLION COPIES?!

Either you mean dollars or units [then it should be thousands]. Indicate which.

jvm · May 18, 2008

iosef said:
Shouldn't that y-axis be "thousands," not "millions?"

:lol
Yes. I'll send a fixed graph. Thanks!

Correction submitted to ng.biz. Graph in OP fixed.

ds0gt · May 18, 2008

iosef said:
Shouldn't that y-axis be "thousands," not "millions?"

i think they mean dollars, as in 500 million dollars

OldJadedGamer · May 18, 2008

What I don't understand is that Sony last year planned to sell 11 million systems in the fiscal year and this year they plan to sell 10 million but with a ton of huge games being out and at a lower price then it was last year then they predicted sales.

And I agree with this:

A look at the monthly sales figures for the PS3, however, reveals that when the rate drops low enough Sony is forced to make adjustments. Sony first adjusted in July 2007, after system sales had dropped for several months straight. After a short bump, PS3 sales began to decline again going into the Holiday 2007 period, and Sony reduced the top price of its system to $500 and introduced its $400 model. Now system sales are declining again, and if they continue through May, a summer price drop seems Sony's only option.

Sony won't dictate when the price drops, the market will. I'm still waiting on getting mine and if the price drops again that's an instant sell for me.

nli10 · May 18, 2008

Good article, well worth the read.

It's interesting to see how GTA has changed over the years, seems there is a mighty crossover between those that want GTA in the first month and the HD console crowd.

Iced_Eagle · May 18, 2008

Excellent read, thanks!

titiklabingapat · May 18, 2008

im stupid.

Azelover · May 18, 2008

avatar299 said:
If the wii failed, would the industry be scared?

If the DS(Wii as an extension) failed you mean. Yes, very much so.

Phife Dawg · May 19, 2008

Interesting read, esp. concerning GTA's sales. It will be interesting to see how GTA sells in the long run.

The only thing they could do in addition to their current strategy is help more third parties break into the top 10.

But why? As you said before in the article the Top 10 doesn't paint the whole picture and from Nintendo's graph we know that the ratio of first to third party sales was 60% third parties and 40% first party for the latter half of 2007.

Beer Monkey · May 19, 2008

OldJadedGamer said:
What I don't understand is that Sony last year planned to sell 11 million systems in the fiscal year and this year they plan to sell 10 million but with a ton of huge games being out and at a lower price then it was last year then they predicted sales.

It's that pesky old reality coming into play, and the system vendors accepting it. $399 PS3 systems and $349 360 systems are priced out of the mainstream. Historically most consoles have sold at $199 or less. $249 may be the new $199 (actually, with inflation, it literally is), but $399 and $349 are not.

CorwinB · May 19, 2008

Nice insight as usual. A small thing, though : page 3, you are comparing the results of Pokemon Mystery Dungeon to the results of Pokemon Pearl & Diamond, without mentioning that Mystery Dungeon games are spin-off.

favouriteflavour · May 19, 2008

beermonkey@tehbias said:
It's that pesky old reality coming into play, and the system vendors accepting it. $399 PS3 systems and $349 360 systems are priced out of the mainstream. Historically most consoles have sold at $199 or less. $249 may be the new $199 (actually, with inflation, it literally is), but $399 and $349 are not.

I think that microsoft and sony are no longer in a rush to lower system costs to coerce new buyers. Instead I believe that they will let this gen run a year or two longer than they originally planned. The games on th PS3 and 360 are going to look better than wii games either way so this is a viable option.

Luckyman · May 19, 2008

Regardless, the pressure is now on Microsoft to drop its prices.

Now system sales are declining again, and if they continue through May, a summer price drop seems Sony's only option.

lulz

If PS3 and 360 sell at the same rate from here on we wont see pricedrops in a long time..

heliosRAzi · May 19, 2008

favouriteflavour said:
I think that microsoft and sony are no longer in a rush to lower system costs to coerce new buyers. Instead I believe that they will let this gen run a year or two longer than they originally planned. The games on th PS3 and 360 are going to look better than wii games either way so this is a viable option.

So the PS360 will last twelve years? Gotcha

favouriteflavour · May 19, 2008

heliosRAzi said:
So the PS360 will last twelve years? Gotcha

That 10 year is inclusive of time sold alongside the next system. Like how you can still buy a PS2 now.

milanbaros · May 19, 2008

I'm too lazy to read the article but that graph appears very misleading. If GTA4 had been realesed on the first day of NPD recording and San Andreas on the last would the graph show SA destroying GTA4 daily sales? How can you do first monthly sales when the game hasn't even been out a month?

pswii60 · May 19, 2008

Phife Dawg said:
Interesting read, esp. concerning GTA's sales. It will be interesting to see how GTA sells in the long run.

But why? As you said before in the article the Top 10 doesn't paint the whole picture and from Nintendo's graph we know that the ratio of first to third party sales was 60% third parties and 40% first party for the latter half of 2007.

I'd like to see this graph for 360 and PS3.

Phife Dawg · May 19, 2008

favouriteflavour said:
That 10 year is inclusive of time sold alongside the next system. Like how you can still buy a PS2 now.

You can still buy an XBox or a GC as well - it doesn't make a whole lot of sense though. Whether or not a console is still a valuable plattform after 10 years on the market is more up to the market than the manufacturer.

pswii60 said:
I'd like to see this graph for 360 and PS3.

It would favour third parties a lot more. Nintendo is after all one of the biggest software publishers worldwide, regardless of plattform. No way can either Sony or MS compete with them.

What would be more interesting is a graph that would depict percentages across all plattforms worldwide. That way we would see how much weight each publisher has in relation to each other. Not a lot of people would like to see that kind of graph though :lol .

favouriteflavour · May 19, 2008

Phife Dawg said:
You can still buy an XBox or a GC as well - it doesn't make a whole lot of sense though. Whether or not a console is still a valuable plattform after 10 years on the market is more up to the market than the manufacturer.

It would favour third parties a lot more. Nintendo is after all one of the biggest software publishers worldwide, regardless of plattform. No way can either Sony or MS compete with them.

What would be more interesting is a graph that would depict percentages across all plattforms worldwide. That way we would see how much weight each publisher has in relation to each other. Not a lot of people would like to see that kind of graph though :lol .

I imagine they forecast that the PS3 would be a viable option after the PS4 is released. remember that 10 year plan was before the PS3 underperformed spectacularly.

TwiztidElf · May 19, 2008

LCGeek · May 19, 2008

Phife Dawg said:
What would be more interesting is a graph that would depict percentages across all plattforms worldwide. That way we would see how much weight each publisher has in relation to each other. Not a lot of people would like to see that kind of graph though :lol .

I'm one of the few that do. Lets examine how the big publishers amongst themselves practice what they claim nintendo does does to them. If you look at the EA's or activisions of the industry vs the rest you'd see who the true profit hogs they are. You don't because it's easier for them to make themselves look like a minority vs a manufacturer.

Neomoto · May 19, 2008

TwiztidElf said:
http://i30.tinypic.com/igdezd.jpg

Your point is? How many total crap games are in that "100" number? The bulk of that 60% is likely to come from the "top x" best selling 3rd party games, like Guitar Hero III, Mario & Sonic etc. Just for reference, in the month April alone the 4 Wii games in the top 10 accounted for 2 million unit sales. You can see how very big that "60%" will get once you have the total software sold in the "latter half of 2007".

And who cares how much Nintendo software sells? They are the biggest developer in the entire world. Their software sales dwarfs competition for over 20 years, doesn't matter what the platform. Their revenue AND profits are bigger than all the other big guys in the industry put together. Their games are system sellers that bring in the vast majority of it's 25 million userbase. What Nintendo does is giving others means to make some serious money because because of them the Wii is what the Wii is (also they have Virtual Console and WiiWare options). People should realize that it's useless trying to "blame" Nintendo for it's sales. Especially considering the less than piss poor quality output of games by third parties on the system.

test_account · May 19, 2008

Phife Dawg said:
You can still buy an XBox or a GC as well - it doesn't make a whole lot of sense though. Whether or not a console is still a valuable plattform after 10 years on the market is more up to the market than the manufacturer.

Does MS and Nintendo still produce Xbox and GC or are the once that are being sold in the stores old stocks?

Neomoto said:
The bulk of that 60% is likely to come from the "top x" best selling 3rd party games, like Guitar Hero III, Mario & Sonic etc.

I know you say "likely", but do we have any numbers for this? I do agree that Guitar Hero 3 and Mario & Sonic etc. probly makes up a big chunck of those 60%, but i wonder how many % those 60% would have been if it wasnt for all the so-called shovelware games. I do belive that the big amount of so-called shovelware is one reason that its currectly on 60%, but without any solid numbers its just a guess from my side and i might be wrong.

Haunted · May 19, 2008

LCGeek said:
I'm one of the few that do. Lets examine how the big publishers amongst themselves practice what they claim nintendo does does to them. If you look at the EA's or activisions of the industry vs the rest you'd see who the true profit hogs they are. You don't because it's easier for them to make themselves look like a minority vs a manufacturer.

So damn true.

Soule · May 19, 2008

test_account said:
Does MS and Nintendo still produce Xbox and GC or are the once that are being sold in the stores old stocks?

I know you say "likely", but do we have any numbers for this? I do agree that Guitar Hero 3 and Mario & Sonic etc. probly makes up a big chunck of those 60%, but i wonder how many % those 60% would have been if it wasnt for all the so-called shovelware games. I do belive that the big amount of so-called shovelware is one reason that its currectly on 60%, but without any solid numbers its just a guess from my side and i might be wrong.

I'm with you on this one, it'd be nice to have some solid numbers to know for sure tho.

Mithos Yggdrasill · May 19, 2008

Some Highlights (from the NPD thread):

Next-Gen.biz said:
Matt Matthews offers up in-depth analysis of this month's NPD stats. Here you'll find new perspective on the launch of GTA IV, in a historical framework. Also, detailed insight into the strange twists and turns in the hardware race. If you only read one feature this month, make sure it's this one...
Expectations ran high Thursday as the NPD Group released its figures for April 2008 videogame sales. Both Sony and Microsoft representatives had spoken publicly about increases in hardware sales alongside the release of Grand Theft Auto 4. The actual figures were shockingly low: neither the Xbox 360 nor the PlayStation 3 had sold more than 190,000 units during the April period.

Even more amazing, the Nintendo Wii had sold in excess of 700,000 systems for the month. As we tour the April 2008 numbers for hardware and software, we'll cover the overall console race, possible price drops, historical perspective on the launch figures for Grand Theft Auto 4, and try to estimate how much of the market value we can attribute to each of the big three Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony.

The Microsoft Outlook

While Microsoft indicated it saw an increase in Xbox 360 sales alongside the launch of GTA4, sales for the month were lower than many expected. Some analysts have indicated that the expected bump in hardware sales will appear in the May sales figures. Regardless, the pressure is now on Microsoft to drop its prices.

Looking back, Microsoft chose to maintain the launch pricing of the Xbox 360 from November 2005 until August 2007. Apparently this resistance to price cutting helped push the Xbox project into the black, as had been previously promised. However, given the jump in sales after the price drop, Microsoft may have held its own platform back and lost significant ground to the Nintendo Wii in the meantime.

Microsoft probably should have cut the price of the Xbox 360 in February of this year. With a surefire product like GTA4 imminent, such a price cut would have spurred sales and set the stage for a very strong April. Remember that by the time Vice City launched on the PS2, that console was selling for only $200. However, if we take Microsoft's claim of hardware shortages earlier this year at face value, then it is entirely possible that an earlier price drop would simply have exacerbated its uncomfortable position. That is, it would have been in the embarrassing situation of dropping prices while not being able to offer the system to consumers.

Microsoft still has a strong software portfolio, and both Madden NFL 09 and Gears of War 2 should sell very well in the second half of the year. Provided its supply issues have been worked out, Microsoft should drop its hardware prices by $50 across the board. In doing so, it will undercut the Nintendo Wii while also putting downward pressure on the PlayStation 3.

The Sony Outlook

Just last week Sony executives appeared to signal that a price drop was not in the cards for the PlayStation 3. In particular, Nobuyuki Oneda (Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer) said that Sony expected to ship around 10 million PS3 systems in the coming year (a very modest year-on-year increase) and that they did not think they would need to adjust prices to reach that shipment target. The motive here is profitability, perhaps at the expense of marketshare.

A look at the monthly sales figures for the PS3, however, reveals that when the rate drops low enough Sony is forced to make adjustments. Sony first adjusted in July 2007, after system sales had dropped for several months straight. After a short bump, PS3 sales began to decline again going into the Holiday 2007 period, and Sony reduced the top price of its system to $500 and introduced its $400 model. Now system sales are declining again, and if they continue through May, a summer price drop seems Sony's only option.

It does have the alternative of adding value to the PS3, and for once this doesn't mean packing a game in with the system. Sony has announced that it will begin to introduce a video service in the near future, perhaps as early as this summer. If the PlayStation 3 can position itself as a video-on-demand player with quality content, an inexpensive Blu-Ray player, as well as a machine that plays Grand Theft Auto 4, then Sony could well have a winning combination. This adjustment, however, will not attract consumers who simply do not (or cannot) spend $400 on an entertainment device, regardless of the features.

If the PSP and PlayStation 2 were still providing a strong foundation for Sony, then the PS3 might still have time to find its footing. However, April marks two months of decreasing weekly sales rates for all three of its hardware platforms. It is unclear how much longer Sony can rely on impressive sounding PlayStation brand sales figures after each month's NPD figures are released.

The Nintendo Outlook

What to say about Nintendo that we haven't already said? Wii hardware sales have increased in tandem with increasing supply and Nintendo games are regularly taking several spots in the top 10 software chart. As noted last month, they are supplying their own big games on a regular basis and setting the standard for how to make successful software. The only thing they could do in addition to their current strategy is help more third parties break into the top 10.

The only question we have at this point is whether we will continue to see monthly declines in Nintendo DS hardware sales. Would Nintendo be more likely at this point to refresh the Nintendo DS hardware as it did in mid-2006, drop the price of the existing system, or look toward a new handheld?

With such robust hardware and software sales, it will be interesting to watch how well-received Wii Fit is during May. Expect a lot of discussion to be generated should Wii Fit make the top 10 software chart in May.

_____________________________________________________________________________

Marketshare Estimates: Nintendo on Top

Recently we have been interested in what share of the market can be attributed to each of the big three (Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony). In January and February of this year, Microsoft's press releases gave monthly consumer spending data on the Xbox 360 (including software and accessories), as well as cumulative LTD consumer spending on the Xbox 360. In March and April, however, only the LTD figures appeared in Microsoft's press materials. Here is a possible explanation for the missing monthly spend figures: consumers are now spending more per month on the Nintendo Wii than they are on the Xbox 360.

By looking just at hardware sales and known software sales figures from the top 10, we can establish a minimum that consumers spent on the Wii in April 2008: $280 million. We estimate that at least $100 million more can be attributed to the Wii (from third party software and accessories), putting it close to $400 million, or nearly 1/3 of all videogame dollars spent during the month of April. Add in sales of Nintendo DS hardware (over $50 million) and Pokemon software (over $14 million) along with all other Nintendo DS software and Nintendo could easily have sold in excess of $500 million, nearing a majority of the videogame market for the month. (For the record, we have requested figures directly in the past, but the NPD Group does not supply this data to the press.)

We can get at the Nintendo figure another way: subtracting Microsoft's and Sony's marketshares from the total value of the market in April. According to Sony's press release last week, the PlayStation brand accounted for $387 million of sales for the month. Moreover, Microsoft's press releases have indicated that consumers had spent $9.4 billion on the Xbox 360 through the end of March and $9.7 billion on the Xbox 360 through the end of April. So the maximum value of the Xbox 360 market in April was $390 million. The remainder is over $450 million, and that should all belong to Nintendo.

Either way, it appears that Nintendo accounted for around $450 to $500 million of the videogame industry's revenue in April 2008. We will try to keep track of these figures in future months to see how these figures change.

I posted this in the NPD thread, just to underline the discussion at the end overall.

Direct Link to the Website

Vagabundo · May 19, 2008

Neomoto said:
And who cares how much Nintendo software sells? They are the biggest developer in the entire world. Their software sales dwarfs competition for over 20 years, doesn't matter what the platform. Their revenue AND profits are bigger than all the other big guys in the industry put together. Their games are system sellers that bring in the vast majority of it's 25 million userbase. What Nintendo does is giving others means to make some serious money because because of them the Wii is what the Wii is (also they have Virtual Console and WiiWare options). People should realize that it's useless trying to "blame" Nintendo for it's sales. Especially considering the less than piss poor quality output of games by third parties on the system.

To Summerise:

NINTENDO SMASH!!!!

test_account · May 19, 2008

Soule said:
I'm with you on this one, it'd be nice to have some solid numbers to know for sure tho.

Ye, i would like some solid numbers as well

brain_stew · May 19, 2008

favouriteflavour said:
I think that microsoft and sony are no longer in a rush to lower system costs to coerce new buyers. Instead I believe that they will let this gen run a year or two longer than they originally planned. The games on th PS3 and 360 are going to look better than wii games either way so this is a viable option.

The length of a console is directly proportional to how many units it sells. Look at history if you want evidence of that. The technological prowess has zero bearing on it.

blame space · May 19, 2008

Vagabundo said:
To Summerise:

NINTENDO SMASH!!!!

Pretty much. What else is there to say? Now I just want to see some innovative software come out of them that isn't Wii Fit-esque.

Mantorok · May 19, 2008

Wii continues to dominate but any serious gamer would be starved of games if it's the only console they owned.

Looking at the comment about 3rd party sales not being too great on Wii, this is something they have always been struggling with, however, I seriously believe that if the Wii was around 75-80% as powerful as the 360 then we would see more ports of 360/PS3 titles. Nintendo could've still gone for the whole "casual gamer" ploy and sold the system just as well, but because it lacks under the hood it isn't really being taken seriously as a core gaming device, which is a shame, here's hoping Wii2 changes all of that...

When you think about it the Wii is capable of selling as many as the PS2 has, but when you compare the libraries you have to ask yourself about whether sales really matter that much, because you wouldn't think (from a library perspective) that it was this generations top selling console.

sprsk · May 19, 2008

TwiztidElf said:

I wonder what it would take to get one of these for Microsoft and Sony.

Phife Dawg · May 19, 2008

favouriteflavour said:
I imagine they forecast that the PS3 would be a viable option after the PS4 is released. remember that 10 year plan was before the PS3 underperformed spectacularly.

Like I said, it's not up to Sony to decide these things on their own.

LCGeek said:
I'm one of the few that do. Lets examine how the big publishers amongst themselves practice what they claim nintendo does does to them. If you look at the EA's or activisions of the industry vs the rest you'd see who the true profit hogs they are. You don't because it's easier for them to make themselves look like a minority vs a manufacturer.

Yeah, too bad we'll never have such a graph.

And the way I see it Activision is more of a threat to gaming than Nintendo (although the thought of a gaming company being a threat to gaming is a funny one-just going by GAF's definition of being a threat to gaming). Activision are responsible for yearly rehashes and the same old over and over and over again (not including the ocasional gem-I'm looking at you QW). EA already killed off a lot of great studios too.

test_account said:
Does MS and Nintendo still produce Xbox and GC or are the once that are being sold in the stores old stocks?

I know you say "likely", but do we have any numbers for this? I do agree that Guitar Hero 3 and Mario & Sonic etc. probly makes up a big chunck of those 60%, but i wonder how many % those 60% would have been if it wasnt for all the so-called shovelware games. I do belive that the big amount of so-called shovelware is one reason that its currectly on 60%, but without any solid numbers its just a guess from my side and i might be wrong.

Iirc there was still an increase in reported GC shipment numbers from Nintendo. Dunno if these are old stock or newly produced though.

AniHawk · May 19, 2008

Mantorok said:
Wii continues to dominate but any serious gamer would be starved of games if it's the only console they owned.

Looking at the comment about 3rd party sales not being too great on Wii, this is something they have always been struggling with, however, I seriously believe that if the Wii was around 75-80% as powerful as the 360 then we would see more ports of 360/PS3 titles. Nintendo could've still gone for the whole "casual gamer" ploy and sold the system just as well, but because it lacks under the hood it isn't really being taken seriously as a core gaming device, which is a shame, here's hoping Wii2 changes all of that...

When you think about it the Wii is capable of selling as many as the PS2 has, but when you compare the libraries you have to ask yourself about whether sales really matter that much, because you wouldn't think (from a library perspective) that it was this generations top selling console.

Nintendo didn't know whether or not the Wii would be successful. This is evidenced by an entire year of raising shipment amounts for the end of the last FY. So for them to go 75%-80% of the PS360's power wouldn't have been practical if the thing wound up being a big failure (they wanted to launch it at $200, but retailers thought it might come across as too cheap, that's why Wii Sports is bundled and the system costs $250). Aside from that, they wanted to keep it small, and more power would've meant a bigger system.

I don't think developers would've given the thing a chance even then. Right now the Wii's at least getting some downgraded ports from the PS360, but about a little over into a year of the Gamecube, Sega Sports stopped supporting the system and so did Eidos. Look at the DS. At the start of that system's lifespan, nobody thought it would be big, even though Nintendo had a deathgrip on the handheld industry. The PSP comes out and receives all the big name titles and exclusives. It takes about a year before third parties manage to put out their first big games, and now the DS's most interesting games in the future are third party games.

Mantorok · May 19, 2008

AniHawk said:
Nintendo didn't know whether or not the Wii would be successful. This is evidenced by an entire year of raising shipment amounts for the end of the last FY. So for them to go 75%-80% of the PS360's power wouldn't have been practical if the thing wound up being a big failure (they wanted to launch it at $200, but retailers thought it might come across as too cheap, that's why Wii Sports is bundled and the system costs $250). Aside from that, they wanted to keep it small, and more power would've meant a bigger system.

I don't think developers would've given the thing a chance even then. Right now the Wii's at least getting some downgraded ports from the PS360, but about a little over into a year of the Gamecube, Sega Sports stopped supporting the system and so did Eidos. Look at the DS. At the start of that system's lifespan, nobody thought it would be big, even though Nintendo had a deathgrip on the handheld industry. The PSP comes out and receives all the big name titles and exclusives. It takes about a year before third parties manage to put out their first big games, and now the DS's most interesting games in the future are third party games.

Well I remember their projections and they were something like 6 million sold worldwide in the first 6 months, I think they knew they were onto something, but I do agree with what you're saying, they had to keep it cheap therefore making hardware sacrifies, in all seriousness though - is there really $200 worth of hardware in the Wii?

I'm not sure what their aspirations are in the console game but if they want to one day be market leader in both hardware/software units then they need to establish how they are going to get 3rd parties more interested, the amount of crap that has been released from 3rd parties is both shocking and insulting IMO.

Hero · May 19, 2008

AniHawk said:
I don't think developers would've given the thing a chance even then. Right now the Wii's at least getting some downgraded ports from the PS360, but about a little over into a year of the Gamecube, Sega Sports stopped supporting the system and so did Eidos. Look at the DS. At the start of that system's lifespan, nobody thought it would be big, even though Nintendo had a deathgrip on the handheld industry. The PSP comes out and receives all the big name titles and exclusives. It takes about a year before third parties manage to put out their first big games, and now the DS's most interesting games in the future are third party games.

Pretty much agree with you upon this one.

Most people don't remember how horrible the DS library was early on. It took some time and some decent titles to get the train started, but it's pretty much unstoppable now.

I would hope that by now most third parties realized that Wii is the 'PS2' of this generation and have green-lighted or at least started developing some new games with effort into them.

jarrod · May 19, 2008

Mantorok said:
Wii continues to dominate but any serious gamer would be starved of games if it's the only console they owned.

Serious gamers should already have a DS to compliment whatever console they own.

That said, there is quite a bit of "core" content on Wii, but it largely skews differently from PS360 (Nintendo franchises, Japanese stuff, retro downloads). What you miss are the big house western multiformat titles and PC hand-me-downs mainly.

Mantorok said:
When you think about it the Wii is capable of selling as many as the PS2 has, but when you compare the libraries you have to ask yourself about whether sales really matter that much, because you wouldn't think (from a library perspective) that it was this generations top selling console.

PS2 had an endlessly ridiculed library it's first year on market too... not saying it's the exact same as Wii, but (like PS2) the Wii library's going to look a lot different a few years from now.

AniHawk · May 19, 2008

Mantorok said:
Well I remember their projections and they were something like 6 million sold worldwide in the first 6 months, I think they knew they were onto something,

The first FY for the GC had similar expectations. 4m for two regions (Wii had launched in three regions, averaging 2m each).

is there really $200 worth of hardware in the Wii?

No, and that's the point. The system could be profitable even if it was a failure the same way the Gamecube was. It's the reason they didn't go completely nuts with the DS's power either. If either system failed, it wouldn't take a huge chunk out of their pocket.

I'm not sure what their aspirations are in the console game but if they want to one day be market leader in both hardware/software units then they need to establish how they are going to get 3rd parties more interested, the amount of crap that has been released from 3rd parties is both shocking and insulting IMO.

The third party situation this generation is pretty unique, I think. It probably warrants its own thread, but that would be disrupted and trolled with lists and other bullshit.

Mantorok · May 19, 2008

jarrod said:
PS2 had an endlessly ridiculed library it's first year on market too... not saying it's the exact same as Wii, but (like PS2) the Wii library's going to look a lot different a few years from now.

Good point - I keep forgetting the Wii is only 18 months old (here in UK at least). I guess it may pick up, hopefully we will get some nice announcements during E3.

Redd · May 19, 2008

jarrod said:
PS2 had an endlessly ridiculed library it's first year on market too... not saying it's the exact same as Wii, but (like PS2) the Wii library's going to look a lot different a few years from now.

Agreed, I only had one game Tekken Tag Tournament for a long time. Finally Onimusha Warlords came out and there were hits constantly after that.

norinrad21 · May 19, 2008

Mantorok said:
I'm not sure what their aspirations are in the console game but if they want to one day be market leader in both hardware/software units then they need to establish how they are going to get 3rd parties more interested, the amount of crap that has been released from 3rd parties is both shocking and insulting IMO.

The need to do nothing, if 3rd parties want money which is what they are all in for, they will create fun games with effort in them.

They are lucky Yamauchi's not at the helm or else he would have told them to f**k off.

Neomoto · May 19, 2008

Mantorok said:
I'm not sure what their aspirations are in the console game but if they want to one day be market leader in both hardware/software units then they need to establish how they are going to get 3rd parties more interested.

Nintendo already is market leader in both hardware/software units (x360 is still ahead with absolute software numbers, but Wii crushes 360 total software in the same timespan and is handidly beating it now for over 6 months and counting). Which is quite amazing considering the enormous lack of 3rd party heavy hitters.

But I agree with your point though, especially if they want to continue this for 3+ more years. Nintendo can only do so much on it's own (which is still mindblowingly much), third parties really need to step up and fill the gaps in the library for starters.

CassSept · May 19, 2008

Miyamoto: (laugh)
Iwata: (chuckle)

Mantorok · May 19, 2008

norinrad21 said:
The need to do nothing, if 3rd parties want money which is what they are all in for, they will create fun games with effort in them.

Fun......? Effort......? I can name only a handful of 3rd party offerings that contain that.

They are making money there is no doubt about that, but they are making it by porting crap over to the system, which is dissapointing to say the least.

Kilrogg · May 19, 2008

AniHawk said:
(they wanted to launch it at $200, but retailers thought it might come across as too cheap, that's why Wii Sports is bundled and the system costs $250).

This made me curious. Where did you get that from?

VOOK · May 19, 2008

CassSept said:
Miyamoto: (laugh)
Iwata: (chuckle)

Miyamoto: (farts)

Beer Monkey · May 19, 2008

We like to talk about how 360 and PS3 have already saturated their market that is interested at the current price points. We also really need to consider that the cost of entry into the high-def gaming era is not as recession-resistant as some like to think. The economy could be affecting HD console purchases as much as saturation is.

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