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April 2008 NPD Analysis (next-gen.biz)

AniHawk

Member
Kilrogg said:
This made me curious. Where did you get that from?

There was a thread from years back when the price was announced. I don't know if it was that specific thread or another made around the same time that talked about why the Wii wasn't $200.
 

fernoca

Member
Mantorok said:
Fun......? Effort......? I can name only a handful of 3rd party offerings that contain that.

They are making money there is no doubt about that, but they are making it by porting crap over to the system, which is dissapointing to say the least.
That's what norinrad21 was saying..
So far, Wii third parties are not spending:
-Effort
-Time
-Resources
-Money
Yet, when it comes to "the third-party situation", everyone from fanboys to analysts are like "lol third-parties are not selling on Wii"...when even the ones that actually sold (Guitar Hero III, Resident Evil 4, Umbrella Chrnociles, etc) range from either ports..with wiimote added onto it, to experimental low budget games..just to "test waters"....and the few quite diffeent ones (No More Heroes, Zack and Wiki) were basically not advertised at all and just released as if they just released some other game..

As I said in a previous thread, is like developers have no problems spending dozens to hundreds of millions on a 360/PS3 game, yet when it comes to spend less than half that money on the Wii..it's suddenly a risk..then don't spend any effort or time on it and then for some reason think it's going to sell amazingly great.
 

Haunted

Member
Kilrogg said:
This made me curious. Where did you get that from?
It's from an article about the Wii launch iirc. I can't recall where it's from exactly, but I distinctly remember reading that Nintendo wanted to launch at 200$ and retailers pressured them not to release at that price.
 

beef3483

Member
Mantorok said:
Wii continues to dominate but any serious gamer would be starved of games if it's the only console they owned.

Looking at the comment about 3rd party sales not being too great on Wii, this is something they have always been struggling with, however, I seriously believe that if the Wii was around 75-80% as powerful as the 360 then we would see more ports of 360/PS3 titles. Nintendo could've still gone for the whole "casual gamer" ploy and sold the system just as well, but because it lacks under the hood it isn't really being taken seriously as a core gaming device, which is a shame, here's hoping Wii2 changes all of that...

When you think about it the Wii is capable of selling as many as the PS2 has, but when you compare the libraries you have to ask yourself about whether sales really matter that much, because you wouldn't think (from a library perspective) that it was this generations top selling console.

Bullshit. I'm a serious gamer, with only a Wii, and I'm doing just fine.
 

fernoca

Member
beef3483 said:
Bullshit. I'm a serious gamer, with only a Wii, and I'm doing just fine.
Shhh...Me too*

*It seems as also having a Nintendo DS, is "being multiconsole"; evidence that one can't live with a Wii only.
 

radjago

Member
beermonkey@tehbias said:
We like to talk about how 360 and PS3 have already saturated their market that is interested at the current price points. We also really need to consider that the cost of entry into the high-def gaming era is not as recession-resistant as some like to think. The economy could be affecting HD console purchases as much as saturation is.
I'd like to see some numbers on PS2 software sales vs PS3 software sales this month, GTA excluded.
 

llonesmiz

Member
skinnyrattler said:
I knew something was off: Math Training on the way.

april-2008-npd-next-gen_html_6ea9d1c.png


NPD shows this chart and denotes 'thousands' for the numbers. Well, you multiply the numbers, 1850 for GTA4 360 by a thousand, or 3 zeros, then you get 1.85 million. In your graph, GTA 4 total, sold close to 6 million. Your number '600' multiplied by a thousand, or 3 zeros, would mean 600K. You are off by a factor of 10. You should have used either 'in units of 10 thousands' on the y axis or add an extra zero on the numbers on the yaxis..

*brought to you by the United States of North America Education Department for Edutainment and School Shootings and Chicks in Hot skirts.

*forwarded to Europe with the title: 'Suck it Yurop with your funny accents'
GTA(360)+GTA(PS3)=2850000 units

[GTA(360)+GTA(PS3)]/5 days=570000 units/day

So a daily rate of a little under 600k seems correct..
 

JEHUTYj

Banned
But the PS2 userbase was big enough to keep selling a lot over a long period of time. Unless PS360 sales pick up this impossible for GTA4.

And GTA:SA did not drop 70% it's 2nd week and then 40% it's 3rd week in the UK.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
llonesmiz said:
GTA(360)+GTA(PS3)=2850000 units

[GTA(360)+GTA(PS3)]/5 days=570000 units/day

So a daily rate of a little under 600k seems correct..
You get the gold star. No so, the other poster. ;^)
 
yeah it's daily rate. which is stupid if you ask me. cause it totally depends on which day of the month it was launched on. If it was launched on the first day of the tracking period, it would be the lowest selling. The last day, the highest selling.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
LizardKing said:
yeah it's daily rate. which is stupid if you ask me. cause it totally depends on which day of the month it was launched on. If it was launched on the first day of the tracking period, it would be the lowest selling. The last day, the highest selling.
For three of the games -- VC, SA, and GTA4 -- the times are 7, 5, and 5 days. Those aren't exactly time periods which allow for huge differences. The outlier is GTA3, which was 13 days (IIRC, don't have exact figures in front of me).
 

HK-47

Oh, bitch bitch bitch.
Phife Dawg said:
You can still buy an XBox or a GC as well - it doesn't make a whole lot of sense though. Whether or not a console is still a valuable plattform after 10 years on the market is more up to the market than the manufacturer.


It would favour third parties a lot more. Nintendo is after all one of the biggest software publishers worldwide, regardless of plattform. No way can either Sony or MS compete with them.

What would be more interesting is a graph that would depict percentages across all plattforms worldwide. That way we would see how much weight each publisher has in relation to each other. Not a lot of people would like to see that kind of graph though :lol .

Yeah but new PS2s are still getting shipped. I dont see GC or Xbox on the NPDs. Its obvious what he was saying, dont do that dance
 

fernoca

Member
At the same time, the previous GTA/PS2 games were just 1 SKU (originally), while 'IV' was 4 SKUs (2 on the 360 and 2 on the PS3)..

Shouldn't it be fair to combine the first day sales of all GTA PS2 with all the GTA Xbox games, since every place is combining the 360/PS3 sales?? I know the Xbox versions were released much later, but San Andreas was released on October 26, 2004 and still managed to get 2.05 million on just the PS2 and between 5 days of sales.. (average of 410,000 per day)..

So it should be more like:
IV 360: 310,000 daily
IV PS3: 200,000 daily

Is still kinda impressive, but heck, Zelda: Twilight Princess sold 1,052,100 on December 2006 (making it the best seller of that month), yet everyone saw/analyze them individually...
 

Vinci

Danish
fernoca said:
... and the few quite diffeent ones (No More Heroes, Zack and Wiki) were basically not advertised at all and just released as if they just released some other game.

This is the stupidest thing possible and it continues to happen. Then 3rd parties scratch their heads, have a sudden blink of egoistic realization, and go, "Fucking Nintendo." The Wii is not the sort of system where you can come out with a game, particularly one as unique as Zack & Wiki, and expect it to sell if a) Wii owners have no fucking clue your game exists, let alone when it's released, and b) You've done nothing to show them how the game functions or how they could see themselves having fun with it. Games like Wii Sports need little help in this latter department because we can all visualize how to swing a damn baseball bat or tennis club, but games that are doing unique things unto themselves need to provide something that allows people to go, "Hey, I could do that -- and it looks fun!"

EDIT: The Nintendo Channel might actually be very helpful in the promotion of 3rd party games that would ordinarily not get any press or notice. Here's hoping.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Phife Dawg said:
Iirc there was still an increase in reported GC shipment numbers from Nintendo. Dunno if these are old stock or newly produced though.
Really? Do you know when these numbers were last updated?
 

fernoca

Member
Vinci said:
This is the stupidest thing possible and it continues to happen. Then 3rd parties scratch their heads, have a sudden blink of egoistic realization, and go, "Fucking Nintendo." The Wii is not the sort of system where you can come out with a game, particularly one as unique as Zack & Wiki, and expect it to sell if a) Wii owners have no fucking clue your game exists, let alone when it's released, and b) You've done nothing to show them how the game functions or how they could see themselves having fun with it. Games like Wii Sports need little help in this latter department because we can all visualize how to swing a damn baseball bat or tennis club, but games that are doing unique things unto themselves need to provide something that allows people to go, "Hey, I could do that -- and it looks fun!"

EDIT: The Nintendo Channel might actually be very helpful in the promotion of 3rd party games that would ordinarily not get any press or notice. Here's hoping.
Me too...
It's the Nintendo DS situation all over again; with developers like afraid with the touchscreen, mics, seconds screen..failing to realize that they don't have to force or show-horn those into games, that they can still make amzing traditional games with it. Most of the best selling and favorites overall DS games barely used the additional screen/touch screen and use it mostly just as a menu.
 

Tron 2.0

Member
test_account said:
I know you say "likely", but do we have any numbers for this? I do agree that Guitar Hero 3 and Mario & Sonic etc. probly makes up a big chunck of those 60%, but i wonder how many % those 60% would have been if it wasnt for all the so-called shovelware games. I do belive that the big amount of so-called shovelware is one reason that its currectly on 60%, but without any solid numbers its just a guess from my side and i might be wrong.
I do believe you're wrong. Most shovelware titles are lucky to sell 5,000 copies.

This gets mentioned a lot, and ignored equally but we're really only getting a very, very small glimpse at software sales in the NPD threads. It's great that we get the Top 10, but probably the more compelling data is after that.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Tron 2.0 said:
I do believe you're wrong. Most shovelware titles are lucky to sell 5,000 copies.

This gets mentioned a lot, and ignored equally but we're really only getting a very, very small glimpse at software sales in the NPD threads. It's great that we get the Top 10, but probably the more compelling data is after that.
I am under the impression that Wii has alot of showelware titles, and the more titles there are, the bigger chance is there to hit 60% (or how i shall put it). However, i havnt really followed exactly how much showelware Wii actually have so i cant say for sure. And just to clearify, i didnt mean that the mayority of those 60% were showelware sales, i just ment that without the showelware i dont think it would be at 60%.

Not that i really matters much to me though, i just wanted to comment on the guy who posted the 100 3rd party games VS the 5 1st party games, that it does matters (alittle atleast) how many games that are being released. The more games, the higher chance is there for a higher percent in one category if you know what i mean. I wish that all have success with their console games anyway, especially if effort is put into the games :)

I agree, i wish we had more data than just top 10.
 

LOcKY

Member
3rd parties have been trying to find many ways of avoiding developing games for nintendo system for a long long time now.

im sure they are trying them hardest to convince the share holders its a fad and its going to go away.

i personally think most of these developers grew up with Sony and feel they need to support sony regardless.

oh well just a matter of time before share holders start losing confidence because they will sell up and invest in other companies.

Nintendo and dare i say... Sega shares?
 

HK-47

Oh, bitch bitch bitch.
LOcKY said:
3rd parties have been trying to find many ways of avoiding developing games for nintendo system for a long long time now.

im sure they are trying them hardest to convince the share holders its a fad and its going to go away.

i personally think most of these developers grew up with Sony and feel they need to support sony regardless.

oh well just a matter of time before share holders start losing confidence because they will sell up and invest in other companies.

Nintendo and dare i say... Sega shares?

Sega...*looks at their financial report*

No
 

LOcKY

Member
hehe i was only joking on the sega shares...

which reminds me do any of you still have those sega shares they gave out for the dreamcast? or am i talking about another dimension?
 

Woo-Fu

Banned
LOcKY said:
i personally think most of these developers grew up with Sony and feel they need to support sony regardless.

Nah, they grew up with Nintendo... and that is why they'd rather develop for Sony hardware.

Do people not know Nintendo's history with relation to 3rd party developers or do they just choose to ignore it when trying to figure out why 3rd party behaves the way it does towards Nintendo?
 
Woo-Fu said:
Nah, they grew up with Nintendo... and that is why they'd rather develop for Sony hardware.

Do people not know Nintendo's history with relation to 3rd party developers or do they just choose to ignore it when trying to figure out why 3rd party behaves the way it does towards Nintendo?

Apparently they are a bunch of pussies who hold grudges longer than Nintendo does and judging by how Nintendo is run, they are immune to 3rd party stupidity :lol
 

Vinci

Danish
Woo-Fu said:
Nah, they grew up with Nintendo... and that is why they'd rather develop for Sony hardware.

Do people not know Nintendo's history with relation to 3rd party developers or do they just choose to ignore it when trying to figure out why 3rd party behaves the way it does towards Nintendo?

But to suggest that Nintendo hasn't changed drastically in demeanor since Iwata took over would be a bit naive. Yes, Nintendo as-helmed-by Yamauchi was a pain in the ass, but that certainly isn't the case now.
 
"That is, 1 out of every 5 owners of a PS3 or Xbox 360 also has a copy of GTA4. If GTA4 sales remain strong during the next couple of months, we can expect that attach rate to rise."

Huh?

If historically, the attach rate of GTA is less than 10%, doesnt this mean sales will collapse?
 

test_account

XP-39C²
jamesinclair said:
"That is, 1 out of every 5 owners of a PS3 or Xbox 360 also has a copy of GTA4. If GTA4 sales remain strong during the next couple of months, we can expect that attach rate to rise."

Huh?

If historically, the attach rate of GTA is less than 10%, doesnt this mean sales will collapse?
There is about 15 million PS3 and Xbox 360 consoles sold combined in the US. There are about 2.85 million copies of GTA 4 sold combined. That is an attach rate about 1 out of 5. NPD for April only contains about 5-7 days of GTA 4 sales if i'm not mistaken. If GTA 4 sells alot in May, the attach rate might get higher, but its hard since console hardware sales on Xbox 360 and PS3 might rise in May as well. But we'll see :)
 

hc2

Junior Member
Vinci said:
But to suggest that Nintendo hasn't changed drastically in demeanor since Iwata took over would be a bit naive. Yes, Nintendo as-helmed-by Yamauchi was a pain in the ass, but that certainly isn't the case now.
I believe EGM had an article a few months back on how Nintendo is a lot less demanding in their quality control for third party games these days. The main thrust of the article was that the Wii was being flooded with crapware.
Right now Microsoft and Nintendo seem to be in good positions with the cost per unit becoming the profit per unit. Sony has to be worried about this- how much money will they spend to keep the console going? And is the break even point closer or farther away now for the PS3 with the 360 undercutting their prices and Nintendo gobbling up people's gaming money with the DS and Wii? Will Sony keep the PS2 going or are they undercutting PS3 sales by keeping the PS2 alive?
 

Vinci

Danish
hc2 said:
I believe EGM had an article a few months back on how Nintendo is a lot less demanding in their quality control for third party games these days. The main thrust of the article was that the Wii was being flooded with crapware.

This might also, perhaps, just maybe, have something to do with the system selling a metric fuckton.
 

hc2

Junior Member
Vinci said:
This might also, perhaps, just maybe, have something to do with the system selling a metric fuckton.
It could.
I am thinking the main points of the article were that publishers were throwing any game they could out there towards the Wii hoping it would stick and make them a little money. And that Nintendo, which used to be very strict about games, has developed a "fuck, who cares" attitude. And that this may hurt the other consoles and the PSN/Live game repertoire.
But who really knows, looks like Live at least is doing well.
 

BigDug13

Member
beermonkey@tehbias said:
It's that pesky old reality coming into play, and the system vendors accepting it. $399 PS3 systems and $349 360 systems are priced out of the mainstream. Historically most consoles have sold at $199 or less. $249 may be the new $199 (actually, with inflation, it literally is), but $399 and $349 are not.

This is definitely true. I'm really confused by Microsoft's pricing structure at this stage. They've dropped their price by a total of $50, or only 12.5% drop in OVER 2.5 years of being on sale.

While Sony has dropped their price by 16.6% in a year and introduced a non-tard-pack console with only BC missing for 33% less. (US prices only...Japan was even better savings.)

For a "non-high-def disc" system, the 360 isn't very appealing right now for only $50 less than the best bluray player on the market that also plays games. But neither one are appealing compared to a $250 system that comes with a fun game.

Best value right now goes to the PS3 though, but not really because of the gaming aspect. Bluray winning and having every studio supporting it pushes it over the top IMO. The 360's exclusive line-up of games seems to be fading as well, with the PS3 getting most of the top games as well.

I wonder why Microsoft is content with getting beaten in worldwide sales by Sony and getting creamed in worldwide sales by Nintendo. They're now only matching month by month with Sony in the U.S.
 
BigDug13 said:
This is definitely true. I'm really confused by Microsoft's pricing structure at this stage. They've dropped their price by a total of $50, or only 12.5% drop in OVER 2.5 years of being on sale.

While Sony has dropped their price by 16.6% in a year and introduced a non-tard-pack console with only BC missing for 33% less. (US prices only...Japan was even better savings.)

For a "non-high-def disc" system, the 360 isn't very appealing right now for only $50 less than the best bluray player on the market that also plays games. But neither one are appealing compared to a $250 system that comes with a fun game.

Best value right now goes to the PS3 though, but not really because of the gaming aspect. Bluray winning and having every studio supporting it pushes it over the top IMO. The 360's exclusive line-up of games seems to be fading as well, with the PS3 getting most of the top games as well.

I wonder why Microsoft is content with getting beaten in worldwide sales by Sony and getting creamed in worldwide sales by Nintendo. They're now only matching month by month with Sony in the U.S.
Blu-Ray Schmu-Ray.

Blu-Ray is only a value to people who want a Blu-Ray player. Blu-Ray has very little penetration onto console selection, save for the tiny niche that are enthusiastic about games AND BR technology, which the past few years have proved to be statistical noise at best.
 

Opiate

Member
BigDug13 said:
This is definitely true. I'm really confused by Microsoft's pricing structure at this stage. They've dropped their price by a total of $50, or only 12.5% drop in OVER 2.5 years of being on sale.

While Sony has dropped their price by 16.6% in a year and introduced a non-tard-pack console with only BC missing for 33% less. (US prices only...Japan was even better savings.)

For a "non-high-def disc" system, the 360 isn't very appealing right now for only $50 less than the best bluray player on the market that also plays games. But neither one are appealing compared to a $250 system that comes with a fun game.

Best value right now goes to the PS3 though, but not really because of the gaming aspect. Bluray winning and having every studio supporting it pushes it over the top IMO. The 360's exclusive line-up of games seems to be fading as well, with the PS3 getting most of the top games as well.

I wonder why Microsoft is content with getting beaten in worldwide sales by Sony and getting creamed in worldwide sales by Nintendo. They're now only matching month by month with Sony in the U.S.

Because they are now making a profit. While they haven't come out and said so explicitly (Sony has, but MS hasn't), it's apparent that Microsoft is in the painful transitory phases from a marketshare driven gaming segment to a profit driven one.

I think we're about at the end of the days where large corporations will be willing to hemmorhage billions of dollars in order to catch our interest. The free lunches are coming to an end. Despite what some may say about Sony or Microsoft stealing from us or "raping" us (ugh, what an awful metaphor), they've actually done quite the opposite when looking at the bottom line.
 

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
DeaconKnowledge said:
Blu-Ray Schmu-Ray.

Blu-Ray is only a value to people who want a Blu-Ray player. Blu-Ray has very little penetration onto console selection, save for the tiny niche that are enthusiastic about games AND BR technology, which the past few years have proved to be statistical noise at best.

I say the same shit to everyone that brings this up. Game library trumps all.
 

otake

Doesn't know that "You" is used in both the singular and plural
wii is going to ruin gaming for us. sales for wii play make gta4 fans seem like a niche.

edit- by us I mean most of the gaf crowd.
 

Man God

Non-Canon Member
otake said:
wii is going to ruin gaming for us. sales for wii play make gta4 fans seem like a niche.

edit- by us I mean most of the gaf crowd.


I've got some more shocking news for ya. GTA IV is just about as casual as Wii Play. Shocking, I know. I'll give you some time to get used to it. There, feel better?
 

Culex

Banned
otake said:
wii is going to ruin gaming for us. sales for wii play make gta4 fans seem like a niche.

edit- by us I mean most of the gaf crowd.

Your definiton of "us" is the EXTREME minority of the gaming crowd. The Wii is doing everything that the majority of the gaming crowd wants. Sorry to burst your bubble.
 

HK-47

Oh, bitch bitch bitch.
Man God said:
I've got some more shocking news for ya. GTA IV is just about as casual as Wii Play. Shocking, I know. I'll give you some time to get used to it. There, feel better?

As casual as Wii Play...not quite
 

Ulairi

Banned
otake said:
wii is going to ruin gaming for us. sales for wii play make gta4 fans seem like a niche.

edit- by us I mean most of the gaf crowd.

I just have a Wii as my console and I get along just fine. Between games like Super Mario Galaxy, The Legend of Zelda, Mario Kart, Metroid Prime 3, MLB Powerpros, No more heroes, okami, pro evolution soccer, super paper mario, resident evil 4, uc zack and wiki, virtual console, wii ware, GC back catalog, I'm doing just fine with my games.

I still have to pick up boom blocks and wii fit this week.
 

Man God

Non-Canon Member
HK-47 said:
As casual as Wii Play...not quite

I did say just about.

It's all basically on the same level. Sims, Madden, GTA IV, Mario Kart, Wii Sports, Wii Play. Games that sell a ton and have people who only have a system for one of those games.
 

HK-47

Oh, bitch bitch bitch.
Man God said:
I did say just about.

It's all basically on the same level. Sims, Madden, GTA IV, Mario Kart, Wii Sports, Wii Play. Games that sell a ton and have people who only have a system for one of those games.

Madden and GTA casual are not the same people buying Sims and Wii Fit

hell Wii Play doesnt have a demographic since it a controller pack in
 

BTRA

Banned
otake said:
wii is going to ruin gaming for us. sales for wii play make gta4 fans seem like a niche.

edit- by us I mean most of the gaf crowd.

good. I'd love for the GAF crowed to finally wake up and see that they have always been a niche.
 

Man God

Non-Canon Member
HK-47 said:
Madden and GTA casual are not the same people buying Sims and Wii Fit

hell Wii Play doesnt have a demographic since it a controller pack in

Of course they are on the same level. Gotta add in Animal Crossing, Nintendogs, and Pokemon while I'm at it.

The controller doesn't discount Wii Play; you can still get a controller for ten bucks cheaper so there is a market for people who like fun little games at a good price. It deserves every single sale it got.
 

HK-47

Oh, bitch bitch bitch.
Man God said:
Of course they are on the same level. Gotta add in Animal Crossing, Nintendogs, and Pokemon while I'm at it.

The controller doesn't discount Wii Play; you can still get a controller for ten bucks cheaper so there is a market for people who like fun little games at a good price. It deserves every single sale it got.

And FF, and Mario, and Zelda, and Starcraft, and GT, and Sonic, and Warcraft, and Half-Life and etc etc etc

>_>
 
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