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(Software) October 2008 NPD Predictions - Guitar Hero IV, Little Big Planet

D

donny2112

Member
We're predicting for five games that I'm reasonably sure will be in the Top 10.

Games/Format:

[360 Fable 2]
[360 Guitar Hero IV]
[PS2 Guitar Hero IV]
[PS3 Little Big Planet]
[WII Guitar Hero IV]
[Total SW $ in millions]

Guitar Hero IV numbers will be for the combination of all standalone games and bundles per system.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Friday, November 9th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

Code: 
Good                     Bad
[360 Fable 2] 200K       [360 Fable 2] 200 thousand
[360 Fable 2] 200,000    [360 Fable 2] 200.000
[360 Fable 2] 200000     [360 Fable 2] - 200,000
The Hardware Prediction thread is here.

NPD Coverage: October 5 - November 1 (4 weeks, September was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: November 13th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Code: 
                              Aug 2008   Sep 2008

[Total SW $ in millions]           551        616

Days available in tracking period (new releases):
360 Fable 2 - 12 days
360/PS2/WII Guitar Hero IV - 7 days
PS3 Little Big Planet - 5 days
 
[360 Guitar Hero IV] 475k
[PS2 Guitar Hero IV] 350k
[PS3 Little Big Planet] 220k
[WII Guitar Hero IV] 435k
[WII Wii Fit] 225k

I think that GH will do better initially on 360 but the Wii will give better legs.

Edit:

[Total SW in millions]840
 
[360 Guitar Hero IV]822k
[PS2 Guitar Hero IV]325k
[PS3 Little Big Planet]260k
[WII Guitar Hero IV]666k
[360 Fable 2]900k
[Total SW $ in millions] 888
 
donny2112 said:
We're predicting for five games that I'm reasonably sure will be in the Top 10.
Click to expand...

Fable 2 and Fallout 3 will probably outsell four if not all five of those. Very strange choices.
 
The lack of Fable II and Fallout 3 in addition to the inclusion of three different versions of Guitar Hero is a bit odd.
 
Yeah, I don't wanna complain, but I stopped posting my predictions in these software threads because there's only been like one or two games listed in each thread. August it could've been called "predict Madden sales", September was "Force Unleashed sales" and now this thread is more like a Guitar Hero sales prediction rather than software overall...

Fable 2, Fallout 3, Dead Space, and Saints Row 2 all came out this month too. Sure they probably won't all hit top 10 but it'd be more interesting to predict for more games IMO.
 
VALIS said:
Fable 2 and Fallout 3 will probably outsell four if not all five of those. Very strange choices.
Click to expand...

Would Fallout 3 be likely to have enough sales on one of the three platforms it released on to be in the Top 10? I really don't know. I did think about adding the 360 version, but I felt the top three Guitar Hero III LTD platforms would have a better chance of definitely appearing in the Top 10. Little Big Planet is because it's LBP. Even if by some strange occurrence it fails to make the Top 10, I'm pretty sure we'll still get its sales from Sony PR or some special request to NPD by the press.

If you think there were a lot of good/better choices for October's Top 10 to predict for, you can imagine the trouble trying to pick five games in the Top 10 for November/December will be. :lol

Sean said:
Fable 2, Fallout 3, Dead Space, and Saints Row 2 all came out this month too. Sure they probably won't all hit top 10 but it'd be more interesting to predict for more games IMO.
Click to expand...

Interest has to take a back seat to viability, though. We don't get special numbers from NPD, anymore, so if we want to have a functioning software prediction thread with actual results, we have to pick games that we're likely to get the data on. That results in a lot of "safe" choices instead of necessarily the most interesting ones.
 
donny2112 said:
If you think there were a lot of good/better choices for October's Top 10 to predict for, you can imagine the trouble trying to pick five games in the Top 10 for November/December will be. :lol
Click to expand...
if i had to guess right now

gears 2
COD 5 360
COD 5 Ps3
resistance 2
guitar hero wii
 
SIP YEK NOD said:
if i had to guess right now

gears 2
COD 5 360
COD 5 Ps3
resistance 2
guitar hero wii
Click to expand...

Would CoD:WaW and Resistance 2 cannibalize sales on the PS3, though? What about CoD:WaW and Gears 2 on the 360? There's also Banjo-Kazooie as a wildcard, though it probably has a pretty slim chance of actually making the Top 10.

Would Animal Crossing Wii make a better choice than Guitar Hero IV Wii?

All five of those games will sell "well," I'm sure, but selling "well" or even "phenomenally" isn't enough to guarantee a Top 10 showing in December, for example.

Edit:
Just to be clear, I'm open to criticism of the game choices. I'm just trying to share the kinds of things that go through my mind when trying to pick games. :lol
 
looking at last years november/december, COD 360 was #1 both months, halo 3 for 360 charted both months despite being a september release, and guitar hero 3 had 2 skus in each month.

#5 is the only wildcard, and i think R2 is a pretty safe bet to chart both months being The big game for sonys audience this christmas.


as for october, Fable has a chance at #1, and is a lock for top 10. Saints row 2 for 360 debuted at 3rd and moved to second in the PAL charts, and with the delay there is potential for LBP not to chart at all.
 
Fable 2 is selling out everywhere. Not including it is a big mistake. Might be the top selling game of the month for a single sku.
 
LOL try Fable II. If it does less than 700k I would be highly surprised. Heh, the site which must not be named has it over a million first week WW with a super majority of that in NA.

donny2112 said:
Would Fallout 3 be likely to have enough sales on one of the three platforms it released on to be in the Top 10? I really don't know. I did think about adding the 360 version, but I felt the top three Guitar Hero III LTD platforms would have a better chance of definitely appearing in the Top 10. Little Big Planet is because it's LBP. Even if by some strange occurrence it fails to make the Top 10, I'm pretty sure we'll still get its sales from Sony PR or some special request to NPD by the press.

If you think there were a lot of good/better choices for October's Top 10 to predict for, you can imagine the trouble trying to pick five games in the Top 10 for November/December will be. :lol



Interest has to take a back seat to viability, though. We don't get special numbers from NPD, anymore, so if we want to have a functioning software prediction thread with actual results, we have to pick games that we're likely to get the data on. That results in a lot of "safe" choices instead of necessarily the most interesting ones.
Click to expand...


I'm not even sure how one could even assume LBP as a safe choice over F2 for the month given the delayed release, and in light of the remaining SKUs for October. Top 10 probably. Top 5 is another question altogether.
 
donny2112 said:
Would Fallout 3 be likely to have enough sales on one of the three platforms it released on to be in the Top 10? I really don't know. I did think about adding the 360 version, but I felt the top three Guitar Hero III LTD platforms would have a better chance of definitely appearing in the Top 10. Little Big Planet is because it's LBP. Even if by some strange occurrence it fails to make the Top 10, I'm pretty sure we'll still get its sales from Sony PR or some special request to NPD by the press.
If you think there were a lot of good/better choices for October's Top 10 to predict for, you can imagine the trouble trying to pick five games in the Top 10 for November/December will be. :lol



Interest has to take a back seat to viability, though. We don't get special numbers from NPD, anymore, so if we want to have a functioning software prediction thread with actual results, we have to pick games that we're likely to get the data on. That results in a lot of "safe" choices instead of necessarily the most interesting ones.
Click to expand...

LBP is going to set the charts on FIRE! It's going to be really hard for LBP to *not* come in at #1 this month. But if any game can knock it off the top spot its GH.

sites_1785_files_tank%20fire.jpg
 
WarLox said:

LBP is going to set the charts on FIRE! It's going to be really hard for LBP to *not* come in at #1 this month. But if any game can knock it off the top spot its GH.
Click to expand...

I highly doubt that.
 
WarLox said:
fixed :lol
Click to expand...
Can someone explain that meme to me?

I think it will be something like:

[360 Fable 2] 575k
[360 Guitar Hero IV] 275k
[WII Wii Fit] 250k
[PS2 Guitar Hero IV] 200k
[WII Guitar Hero IV] 175k
[PS3 Little Big Planet] 150k

The people who wanted to spend $200 on plastic instruments probably already bought Rock Band, and LBP will have a small debut but long legs. Fable 2 is going to be the top seller for October.
 
You really have to question the wisdom of not including Fable 2, I think it will out sell Lbp 4 or 5 times, last time I saw my friends list all light up playing the same game was Halo 3.

Also why include wii fit when you are essentially guess what was shipped rather than sold?
 
I find that using the USA rankings on mygamercard.net helps out a lot actually determining a title's probable sales since you can compare games to other games.

For October new releases, these are how many gamertags have played the game:

Fable 2 - 152,914.... now The Force Unleased sits at 131,949 and Madden 09 at 175,913. Now Madden has sold around 1.2 million since it came out and The Force Unleased did
600k in Sept and we have no data for what it did in Oct yet so... I would peg Fable 2 at around 950k

I was only really interested in what Fable 2 did this month but I'll post what the other new releases did too... Maybe someone can keep track of all this data and we could kind of have a better idea of how many copies certain titles sold based on comparative data from mygamercard.net

Fallout 3 - 65,503
Saint's Row 2 - 63,779
Dead Space - 50,982
Guitar Hero: World Tour - 34,579.... for shits and giggles Rock Band 2 is at 122,919
Far Cry 2 - 29,445
NBA 2K9 - 27,770
Silent Hill: Homecoming - 17,179
Midnight Club: LA - 14,003
FIFA 09 - 13,919
Fracture - 10,452
NBA LIVE 09 - 10,024
Spidey: Web of Shadows - 5783
Golden Axe: Beast Rider - 3,664
Blitz II - 3,345
Monopoly - 2,901
Rock Revolution - 1,030

Make of these numbers what you will
 
Rand al Thor 19 said:
I find that using the USA rankings on mygamercard.net helps out a lot actually determining a title's probable sales since you can compare games to other games.

For October new releases, these are how many gamertags have played the game:

Fable 2 - 152,914.... now The Force Unleased sits at 131,949 and Madden 09 at 175,913. Now Madden has sold around 1.2 million since it came out and The Force Unleased did
600k in Sept and we have no data for what it did in Oct yet so... I would peg Fable 2 at around 950k

I was only really interested in what Fable 2 did this month but I'll post what the other new releases did too... Maybe someone can keep track of all this data and we could kind of have a better idea of how many copies certain titles sold based on comparative data from mygamercard.net

Fallout 3 - 65,503
Saint's Row 2 - 63,779
Dead Space - 50,982
Guitar Hero: World Tour - 34,579.... for shits and giggles Rock Band 2 is at 122,919
Far Cry 2 - 29,445
NBA 2K9 - 27,770
Silent Hill: Homecoming - 17,179
Midnight Club: LA - 14,003
FIFA 09 - 13,919
Fracture - 10,452
NBA LIVE 09 - 10,024
Spidey: Web of Shadows - 5783
Golden Axe: Beast Rider - 3,664
Blitz II - 3,345
Monopoly - 2,901
Rock Revolution - 1,030

Make of these numbers what you will
Click to expand...


Interesting.

On the PS3 side, I can confirm that one of the most played levels in LBP is actually one that gives you some easy trophies, and it's been played about 90,000 times so far. Game hasn't released in Europe yet either, and then level is unlikely to be played more than once.

The delay will definitely have an impact on sales for the month, since there won't be many days of tracking, but my guess is LBP would be somewhere around 200k.
 
I'd actually be semi-surprised if LBP hits the top ten this month. Delay + apparently supply issues post-reprint = ??
 
gofreak said:
I'd actually be semi-surprised if LBP hits the top ten this month. Delay + apparently supply issues post-reprint = ??
Click to expand...

+1
There are just too many things working against LBP, showing up in the top 10 will be tough. SonyCowboy please get us the numbers regardless!!
 
Rand al Thor 19 said:
I find that using the USA rankings on mygamercard.net helps out a lot actually determining a title's probable sales since you can compare games to other games.

For October new releases, these are how many gamertags have played the game:

Fable 2 - 152,914.... now The Force Unleased sits at 131,949 and Madden 09 at 175,913. Now Madden has sold around 1.2 million since it came out and The Force Unleased did
600k in Sept and we have no data for what it did in Oct yet so... I would peg Fable 2 at around 950k

I was only really interested in what Fable 2 did this month but I'll post what the other new releases did too... Maybe someone can keep track of all this data and we could kind of have a better idea of how many copies certain titles sold based on comparative data from mygamercard.net

Fallout 3 - 65,503
Saint's Row 2 - 63,779
Dead Space - 50,982
Guitar Hero: World Tour - 34,579.... for shits and giggles Rock Band 2 is at 122,919
Far Cry 2 - 29,445
NBA 2K9 - 27,770
Silent Hill: Homecoming - 17,179
Midnight Club: LA - 14,003
FIFA 09 - 13,919
Fracture - 10,452
NBA LIVE 09 - 10,024
Spidey: Web of Shadows - 5783
Golden Axe: Beast Rider - 3,664
Blitz II - 3,345
Monopoly - 2,901
Rock Revolution - 1,030

Make of these numbers what you will
Click to expand...

I used to track some data from mygamercard last year, but with only a top 10 available monthly it became impossible.


Something that I found on my files, every game have a different multiplier, hardcore games have the lowest value and it gets lower every month. Right now you might get some close results multiplying the leaderbords by a number between 5 and 6.

Code: 
Game	Leaderboards	LTD Dec 07   X
Ass Creed 	215000	1870000	    8.6
Call of Duty 4	355000	3040000	    8.5
Halo 3	       ]635000	4820000	    7.5
Guitar Hero 3 	215000	1580000	    7.3
Rock Band 	107000	775000	    7.2
Mass Effect 	155000	875000	    5.6
 
donny2112,

simEx, with input from EEDAR, the prediction firm currently headed by Jesse2040, suggested the following games that are 95% sure to show up on October 2008 NPD Top 10 :
Code: 
Fable 2
Dead Space
Wii Play
Little Big Planet
Fallout 3
Note : The list is not listed in order of sales #. It is just the list as I type it.

For Nov 2008 NPD Top 10, simEx (through EEDAR) have the following :
Code: 
Gears of War 2
Call of Duty : World at War
Call of Duty : World at War
Resistance: Fall of Man 2
Wii Play

I know that Wii Play prediction is most definitely "uninteresting", so feel free to switch that game with any other game you like (GH4 X360 or GH4 Wii, IMO, is a good candidate for Oct 08. I don't think GH4 PS2 is a good candidate, since I think PS3 version will sell more than PS2 version).
 
360 version of Saints Row 2 will probably pop up too. What came out on Wii last month other than Guitar Hero and Wii music? Will Wii music do a repeat of Japan's sales?

[360 Guitar Hero IV] 400k
[PS2 Guitar Hero IV] 200k
[PS3 Little Big Planet] 100k
[WII Guitar Hero IV] 300k
[WII Wii Fit] 75k
[Total SW $ in millions] 10,000,000
 
I understand why donny is weary of including Fallout 3, Saints Row 2 and Dead Space. They will do well, but none of them are guaranteed to be in the top 10. But omitting Fable II is a huge mistake, since it will probably be the #1 title this month.

Personally, I don't see the harm in predicting all those mentioned titles even though we'll not get all the numbers. Just let the predictions for those we get count.
 
Where's Fable 2? It's going to sell atleast 4-5 times more than LBP. And speaking of LBP, I'm not even sure it's going to be in the top 10. I can think of quite a few games that's not on this list that will outsell it, Fallout 3 (360) Saint's Row 2 (360), Wii Play, Mario Kart Wii etc.

But again, having LBP but not Fable is quite hilarious. Fable 2 will most likely be close to 1 Million.
 
BakedPigeon said:
Will the LBP recall have an effect on the NPD numbers?
Click to expand...

Also, apologies if this is obvious, but do the copies of LBP that broke the street date before the recall still get counted?
 
Brakara said:
I understand why donny is weary of including Fallout 3, Saints Row 2 and Dead Space. They will do well, but none of them are guaranteed to be in the top 10.
Click to expand...

LBP isn't guaranteed either.
 
Brakara said:
I understand why donny is weary of including Fallout 3, Saints Row 2 and Dead Space. They will do well, but none of them are guaranteed to be in the top 10. But omitting Fable II is a huge mistake, since it will probably be the #1 title this month.
Click to expand...

Fable 2, Saints Row 2, Fallout 3, 360 versions alone probably have better chance of getting a top 10 spot than LBP.
 
[360 Guitar Hero IV] 500k
[PS2 Guitar Hero IV] 300k
[PS3 Little Big Planet] 250k
[WII Guitar Hero IV] 400k
[WII Wii Fit] 400k
[Total SW $ in millions] 775

Btw, some info that Iwata gave about WiiFit sales in the US yesterday in the Nintendo conference call:

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/081031/04.html

"I heard from Reggie Fils-aime, who is the president of Nintendo of America, that lately, a couple dozens people are waiting in front of the Nintendo World Store in New York every morning in order to purchase a Wii Fit as soon as the store opens everyday. One out of three or four of them are allegedly purchasing Wii hardware too. On average, more than 100,000 Wii Fit has been constantly sold every week, and last week, about 150,000 Wii Fit was sold in the U.S. So far, we have been able to sell through all the Wii Fit we could ship to the market, and much like the way Wii Sports has been driving Wii hardware sales, nowadays, Wii Fit appears to also be playing a major role in driving the hardware sales. The U.S. appears to be the market which has most effectively leveraged the software launches of Super Smash Brothers Brawl, Mario Kart Wii and Wii Fit in the three consecutive months of March, April and May this year."
 
Rand al Thor 19 said:
I find that using the USA rankings on mygamercard.net helps out a lot actually determining a title's probable sales since you can compare games to other games.

For October new releases, these are how many gamertags have played the game:

Fable 2 - 152,914.... now The Force Unleased sits at 131,949 and Madden 09 at 175,913. Now Madden has sold around 1.2 million since it came out and The Force Unleased did
600k in Sept and we have no data for what it did in Oct yet so... I would peg Fable 2 at around 950k

I was only really interested in what Fable 2 did this month but I'll post what the other new releases did too... Maybe someone can keep track of all this data and we could kind of have a better idea of how many copies certain titles sold based on comparative data from mygamercard.net

Fallout 3 - 65,503
Saint's Row 2 - 63,779
Dead Space - 50,982
Guitar Hero: World Tour - 34,579.... for shits and giggles Rock Band 2 is at 122,919
Far Cry 2 - 29,445
NBA 2K9 - 27,770
Silent Hill: Homecoming - 17,179
Midnight Club: LA - 14,003
FIFA 09 - 13,919
Fracture - 10,452
NBA LIVE 09 - 10,024
Spidey: Web of Shadows - 5783
Golden Axe: Beast Rider - 3,664
Blitz II - 3,345
Monopoly - 2,901
Rock Revolution - 1,030

Make of these numbers what you will
Click to expand...

Interesting numbers which again only validates Fable II being up there for Ocotber NPD.
 
PirateSean said:
Also, apologies if this is obvious, but do the copies of LBP that broke the street date before the recall still get counted?
Click to expand...

Yes.

test_account said:
Isnt it just 3 days? I thought LBP was released on the 30th of October in USA.
Click to expand...

Released the same day as Fallout 3. Should be 5 days of sales for both.
 
WrikaWrek said:
Fable 2, Saints Row 2, Fallout 3, 360 versions alone probably have better chance of getting a top 10 spot than LBP.
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure we'll get the LBP numbers even if it doesn't chart though. I'm not so sure about SR2 and FO3.
 
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