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October 2008 NPD Article (Gamasutra)

J

jvm

Gamasutra.
It's that time again. Here is my article about the latest sales figures.

Things of possible interest to sales-agers: ASP for Xbox 360 appears constant, PS3 ASP now very close to $400, October software unit sales per current gen console, YTD software sales per current gen console, estimated top 5 games by unit sales, estimated top 5 games by revenue.

Direct link to Gamasutra article about October 2008 NPD.

(Also of interest may be today's post on Gamasutra by my colleague, Jesse Divnich: The Divnich Tapes: Sony Most Affected By Economic Turbulence. As you may know, he'll have several posts this week about different aspects of sales.)

Here's a graph from my article:
ytd-software-sales.png


As always, constructive criticism is welcome. If I made an error, kindly let me know and I'll get it fixed ASAP. Thanks, guys.

About the top 20: Because there was a lot of confusion over the top 20 we got on Friday, and GameSpot's post over the weekend, I am not including it in the article. I am still working with NPD to get things straightened out. Hopefully you'll know when things work out.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December and all of 2007
November 2007
October 2007
 
Great stuff, its amazing to see the Guitar Hero year-to-year dropoff, I think its a combo of Rock Band cutting in more and maybe some oversaturation.
 
Well done

Enjoyed this month's installment- brought some clarity.
 
GitarooMan said:
Great stuff, its amazing to see the Guitar Hero year-to-year dropoff, I think its a combo of Rock Band cutting in more and maybe some oversaturation.
Click to expand...

There's also the problem of no frickin' band bundles. I was out holiday shopping yesterday and it's impossible to get a GHWT full band bundle while RB2 band bundles are everywhere. Activision really dropped the ball on the hardware supply. They also need to try to increase the number of retailers with demo stations though I'd imagine they are getting a lot of pushback from stores that feel that just one full band demo station (RB2) is taking up too much room as it is.
 
Good job.

Aside from the insane Wii HW numbers, Guitar Hero's drop was the story from this months NPD, imo:

gh3-vs-ghwt-2.png



It's still too early to say whether brand fatigue and the high pricepoint are the main reasons (GH will definitely enjoy strong holiday sales), but if the drop continues compared to holiday 2007, these will surely have been factors.


Also interesting to see how the Wii is decidedly pulling away in software sales, dominating HW and SW by significant margins.
 
beermonkey@tehbias said:
There's also the problem of no frickin' band bundles. I was out holiday shopping yesterday and it's impossible to get a GHWT full band bundle while RB2 band bundles are everywhere. Activision really dropped the ball on the hardware supply. They also need to try to increase the number of retailers with demo stations though I'd imagine they are getting a lot of pushback from stores that feel that just one full band demo station (RB2) is taking up too much room as it is.
Click to expand...

Demo stations may not play out that well for them since the drums seem to be unreliable - every GHWT demo station I've seen has had a broken drum set (either a pad doesn't respond, or worse, someone has snapped one of the cymbals off)
 
top-5-ytd-units-2008.png


=O

Wii Play and Wii Fit will surpass the 360 version of GTA4; still, combining the PS3 version (5 million in total?) it will be very difficult to dethrone that game. (unless Nintendo can ship enough Wii Fits...)
 
manueldelalas said:
Wii Play and Wii Fit will surpass the 360 version of GTA4; still, combining the PS3 version (5 million in total?) it will be very difficult to dethrone that game. (unless Nintendo can ship enough Wii Fits...)
Click to expand...


I think its possible for Wii Fit and Mario Kart.
 
manueldelalas said:
top-5-ytd-units-2008.png


=O

Wii Play and Wii Fit will surpass the 360 version of GTA4; still, combining the PS3 version (5 million in total?) it will be very difficult to dethrone that game. (unless Nintendo can ship enough Wii Fits...)
Click to expand...
Mario Kart :bow - best game on the list.
 
Not for your article, but the Jesse Divnich one ...

Setting up a bar for the PS3 in November 2008 based on the increase for the PS3 in November 2007 is just asking for it to fail. There's no $100 less version out for this November, after all.


On your article,

I really like the Guitar Hero Top 10 graph. I hadn't realized it had been so omnipresent over the last two years. Guitar Hero DS 2 and GH:WT seasonal increase will probably bring it back for the November Top 10. :lol

The ASP for the 360 really shows the strong impact of the Arcade compared to the Elite. If the Pro is selling 50% of the 360 total, then the Arcade is outselling the Elite 3:1. :D

Phife Dawg said:
How did you estimate the amount of software sales on Wii?
Click to expand...

Ditto. :)
 
Yea, Divinch should have definitely noted the price cut, but he does say they see it coming in significantly less than the theoretical representation.

Depending on how well GTA IV performs over the holidays and just looking at some of the preliminary data I could certainly see Gears 2 topping 3.2 million in sales for the two month period. Would have liked to see some more third party comparisons, but pretty good read nonetheless.
 
If the Software Numbers are true, then despite the fact that it's very likely that the Wii will have larger LTD sales compared to the PS3 + 360 in the near future, the PS3 + 360 software sales are still much larger.
 
Private Hoffman said:
If the Software Numbers are true, then despite the fact that it's very likely that the Wii will have larger LTD sales compared to the PS3 + 360 in the near future, the PS3 + 360 software sales are still much larger.
Click to expand...

Still the interest of any publisher are the future software sales, not the past ones...
 
donny2112 said:
Not for your article, but the Jesse Divnich one ...

Setting up a bar for the PS3 in November 2008 based on the increase for the PS3 in November 2007 is just asking for it to fail. There's no $100 less version out for this November, after all.
Click to expand...
Yeah, in fact isn't Sony pushing a new $500 model? I have this fear that they'll ship lots of the $500 model and undersupply the $400 model and try to get people to jump for the higher one because it's more commonly in stock.

I really like the Guitar Hero Top 10 graph. I hadn't realized it had been so omnipresent over the last two years. Guitar Hero DS 2 and GH:WT seasonal increase will probably bring it back for the November Top 10. :lol

The ASP for the 360 really shows the strong impact of the Arcade compared to the Elite. If the Pro is selling 50% of the 360 total, then the Arcade is outselling the Elite 3:1. :D
Click to expand...
Yep, by the time we get to spring I think you'll be able to say something like "some GH game in the top 10 for 26 of the last 30 months".

Nice trick on the 360 estimate...I like it! I wish we knew the real mix. (Much as I've always wanted to see figures for how well regular, plus, and premium gasoline sell relative to each other. I once saw a little gauge under the edge of a gas pump lid and it seemed to indicate 10-to-1 for cheap-to-expensive...)

Ditto. :)
Click to expand...
Know total software $ for Sony systems, software units for Xbox 360, software $ for Xbox 360, Microsoft did not advertise it had leading software units (high probability that Wii did), a rough estimate of NDS software $. Did not want to push that number too hard, which is why I focused on the Xbox 360/PS3 comparison. But, hey, I should know you guys will zero in on the weakest data point. That's why I love it here.

For whatever it's worth, I think this shows I was fairly close, but low. GameDaily article.
 
manueldelalas said:
Still the interest of any publisher are the future software sales, not the past ones...
Click to expand...
And on top of that, future profit rather than just revenue.

PS3/360 titles are priced higher, but they also cost a lot more to make than Wii titles (even if they're both by big teams), especially when comparison Wii to a title made for both 360 and Wii.
 
jvm said:
Yeah, in fact isn't Sony pushing a new $500 model? I have this fear that they'll ship lots of the $500 model and undersupply the $400 model and try to get people to jump for the higher one because it's more commonly in stock.
Click to expand...

While they did this with the 20 gig, they did not do this with the 40 gig so it's up in the air.
 
Private Hoffman said:
If the Software Numbers are true, then despite the fact that it's very likely that the Wii will have larger LTD sales compared to the PS3 + 360 in the near future, the PS3 + 360 software sales are still much larger.
Click to expand...
So that's where you'll be moving the goalpost come January?:lol
 
Linked Article said:
Notice that Wii Play appears in both lists. Should Wii Play sell in November and December of this year as it did in 2007, it will have appeared in the top 5 for two years in a row with higher sales in the second year.
Click to expand...

Damn, that's some money maker. 2 years in the monthly top 10, and 2 years in the yearly top 5, with stronger sales for year two... impressive.
 
jmv, you should, at least, recognize the release of the 360 Holiday bundles for a reason why its hardware sales increased. Historically, software bundles have been as effective as pricedrops, and sometimes, more so.


Private Hoffman said:
If the Software Numbers are true, then despite the fact that it's very likely that the Wii will have larger LTD sales compared to the PS3 + 360 in the near future, the PS3 + 360 software sales are still much larger.
Click to expand...
If the insane jump in Wii software over Christmas occurs again... Wii might still win on that goalpost.
 
JJConrad said:
jmv, you should, at least, recognize the release of the 360 Holiday bundles for a reason why its hardware sales increased. Historically, software bundles have been as effective as pricedrops, and sometimes, more so.
Click to expand...
A very good point. Thanks for bringing it up!
 
Parl said:
And on top of that, future profit rather than just revenue.

PS3/360 titles are priced higher, but they also cost a lot more to make than Wii titles (even if they're both by big teams), especially when comparison Wii to a title made for both 360 and Wii.
Click to expand...


Soooo.....make more [better] Wii games...?
 
Can I please ask why people are surprised by Guitar Hero's drop?

The game is triple the price is it not? It is down here in Australia, of course it's not going to sell the same. ESPECIALLY now.
 
2 Minutes Turkish said:
Can I please ask why people are surprised by Guitar Hero's drop?

The game is triple the price is it not? It is down here in Australia, of course it's not going to sell the same. ESPECIALLY now.
Click to expand...

It's the same price. There's the band bundle available, of course, but the other prices are the exact same. I think people are just tired of the game.
 
JJConrad said:
If the insane jump in Wii software over Christmas occurs again... Wii might still win on that goalpost.
Click to expand...
That was insane, last year my local stores sold all their Wii games and it took Nintendo about 2 weeks to get supply in again. They would only get a handful of games and Super Mario Galaxy was sold out at European suppliers till January.
 
Parl said:
And on top of that, future profit rather than just revenue.

PS3/360 titles are priced higher, but they also cost a lot more to make than Wii titles (even if they're both by big teams), especially when comparison Wii to a title made for both 360 and Wii.
Click to expand...
Do you have any articles from the past 12 months indicating that the disparity between a big or even mid-range PS360 game is massively more expensive than a Wii title of the same caliber?
 
Trevor360 said:
360 outsold PS3 4-1 in that period during 2007? How do i not remember this
Click to expand...

The PS3 sold sub-100K for a few months in a row last year (reaching as low as 80K, iirc). 2008's been a pretty big improvement.
 
Of All Trades said:
Do you have any articles from the past 12 months indicating that the disparity between a big or even mid-range PS360 game is massively more expensive than a Wii title of the same caliber?
Click to expand...

...you don't believe that's true? o_O
 
jvm said:
Yes. And No. Good enough? :D
Click to expand...


Your talkin' to a Stephen Stephens right here. I thought it was weird, but if Facebook is to be believed there are tons of us out there.
 
Private Hoffman said:
If the Software Numbers are true, then despite the fact that it's very likely that the Wii will have larger LTD sales compared to the PS3 + 360 in the near future, the PS3 + 360 software sales are still much larger.
Click to expand...

Look at how much the gap has already narrowed there sport

In 2007, software sales were 30M 360/PS3, 14M Wii.

In 2008, software sales were 48M 360/PS3, 38M Wii.

"Much larger" ??

I bet that deficit is wiped out my the middle of next year if not earlier.
 
Private Hoffman said:
If the Software Numbers are true, then despite the fact that it's very likely that the Wii will have larger LTD sales compared to the PS3 + 360 in the near future, the PS3 + 360 software sales are still much larger.
Click to expand...

Is this going to be the new rallying cry now that LTD sales worldwide are long gone and LTD sales in the US are being inexorably overtaken?

jvm said:
Yeah, in fact isn't Sony pushing a new $500 model? I have this fear that they'll ship lots of the $500 model and undersupply the $400 model and try to get people to jump for the higher one because it's more commonly in stock.
Click to expand...

With Microsoft pushing a $200 unit this sounds like complete and utter suicide to me.

Of All Trades said:
Do you have any articles from the past 12 months indicating that the disparity between a big or even mid-range PS360 game is massively more expensive than a Wii title of the same caliber?
Click to expand...

Establishing the exact numerical difference is very difficult, but establishing that the budget difference between the two exists is trivial. We know how budgets have increased between PS2 and the HD systems, and that the Wii's power level and therefore lack of a need for HD textures, ultra-high-poly models, etc. would almost certainly not require a comparable budget to a PS360 title.
 
charlequin said:
Is this going to be the new rallying cry now that LTD sales worldwide are long gone and LTD sales in the US are being inexorably overtaken?
Click to expand...


The next rallying cry will be "Include the P.C too!!"
 
Private Hoffman said:
If the Software Numbers are true, then despite the fact that it's very likely that the Wii will have larger LTD sales compared to the PS3 + 360 in the near future, the PS3 + 360 software sales are still much larger.
Click to expand...
How so? You realize the toal difference is only 10 million. The Wii didn't have 3rd party games like GTA IV, which is counted twice by being on both ps3 and x360 and not Wii. Now of course the fact still stands that PS3 + 360 software sales are larger, but I bet Wii is going to make up some of those millions this holiday season. Pretty impressive considering the amount (or should I say lack) of high profile 3rd party Wii games that have the potential to sell big.

You shouldn't also forget that this is "just" the US. Take in Europe or total worldwide sales and the Wii's story is looking even brighter.

Edit: I totally forgot to mention Wii Sports. Because that one isn't counted. I think it's fair to say Wii Sports does influence things quite a bit, and the shitload of copies it has "sold" is rather significant.
 
Sure Nintendo's 4 big boys amount to 1/3 of the 2008 software pie but there is still 25m other things in homes.

The customer is always right; but it feels so wrong for those looking at the games available since May.
 
Oh wow... I think this explains it

gh3-vs-ghwt.png



Look at the PS2 drop.

I am a prime example.

I bought GH3 for PS2 because I owned the previous 3 games + hardware.

This year, Im conflicted. Should I get WT for PS2, to play with my GH guitars and RB instruments....

Or wait a get a X360 with band kit?

I think there are ALOT of gamers in my situation, that dont want to keep dropping money into the PS2, but dont want to, or cant afford to make the 400$ jump to the next gen consoles + band kit.
 
jamesinclair said:
Im looking at Amazon, and all the GH band bundles are sold out.

Could there possibly have been a supply issue?
Click to expand...
Activision has said there is a supply issue and it seems some might be having trouble getting the full band kits in stores... that would definitely explain some of those numbers.
 
jamesinclair said:
Oh wow... I think this explains it

http://www.gamasutra.com/db_area/images/feature/3854/gh3-vs-ghwt.png


Look at the PS2 drop.

I am a prime example.

I bought GH3 for PS2 because I owned the previous 3 games + hardware.

This year, Im conflicted. Should I get WT for PS2, to play with my GH guitars and RB instruments....

Or wait a get a X360 with band kit?

I think there are ALOT of gamers in my situation, that dont want to keep dropping money into the PS2, but dont want to, or cant afford to make the 400$ jump to the next gen consoles + band kit.
Click to expand...

Yep, I'm in more or less the same situation, although I have to choose between the PS2, Wii, or spring for a 360.
 
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