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September 2008 NPD Article (Gamasutra)

J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Time for some graphs and comments on the latest sales figures, courtesy of NPD.

Direct link to Gamasutra article about September 2008 NPD.

Things of possible interest to sales-agers: estimated ASP for Xbox 360 in September ($275), updated LTD tie ratios, full top 20 (sans units for 11-20, but with Pachter helping bracket 11 - 18), and some comments on just what analysts are predicting for October.

Here's a graph:
iwjebn.png


As always, constructive criticism is welcome. If I made an error, kindly let me know and I'll get it fixed ASAP. (Will not be back for a few hours, so patience.) Thanks, guys.

(Side note: My column will be with Gamasutra for the foreseeable future. Folks here for a while may remember it started there in June 2007 with May 2007 NPD results. Later it moved to Next-Gen.biz, now known as Edge-Online. This is the first full NPD article back at Gamasutra, although I did two pieces for them on specific sales figures right after the August figures were released.)

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December and all of 2007
November 2007
October 2007
 
G

Gaborn

Member
tie_ratios_medium.png


Is it just me or is that devastating for Sony? My understanding was that slower selling consoles have an easier time building up their tie ratio because "new" users are added at a slower rate (meaning they don't have to buy 4-5 games to keep a tie ratio from decreasing). Forget the price of the PS3, Sony has to be horrified with this result. Similarly faster selling consoles usually don't have a high tie ratio because there are so many new users it's so difficult to maintain a consistently high number of games sold.
 
C

Captain Smoker

Member
Thx jvm. :)

Imo the most interesting part:

Software LTD USA:
360: 91.000.000 [27.000.000] - LTD Tie Ratio: 8,1
WII: 69.000.000 [34.500.000] - LTD Tie Ratio: 5,5
PS3: 29.000.000 [15.000.000] - LTD Tie Ratio: 5,3
Click to expand...
*numbers in brackets = YTD 2008
 
Y

yoopoo

Banned
So Wii has sold most software in 08, with 360 in overall lead.

Over 91 million units of software have been sold on the Xbox 360, with 27 million units of that software being sold so far in 2008. For the Wii, around 69 million units of software have been sold with just over half of those sales from this year.

More than 29 million units of PlayStation 3 software have been sold, and well over 15 million of those were sold during 2008. (Since the Xbox 360 launched a year prior to the Wii and the PS3, we may also compare their figures to Xbox 360 software sales in September 2007; at that time 44.5 million units of Xbox 360 software had been sold.)
Click to expand...

software_rates_period.png
 
Y

yoopoo

Banned
Gaborn said:
tie_ratios_medium.png


Is it just me or is that devastating for Sony? My understanding was that slower selling consoles have an easier time building up their tie ratio because "new" users are added at a slower rate (meaning they don't have to buy 4-5 games to keep a tie ratio from decreasing). Forget the price of the PS3, Sony has to be horrified with this result. Similarly faster selling consoles usually don't have a high tie ratio because there are so many new users it's so difficult to maintain a consistently high number of games sold.
Click to expand...

Even more impressive for Wii, considering:

She goes on to explain: “As a system gets further along in its lifecycle and perhaps hardware sales start to diminish, the tie ratio tends to go up because software sales are the bigger draw."

"If a hardware system is doing gangbuster sales, then the tie ratio can go down even if there are lots of overall sales.”
Click to expand...
 
G

Gaborn

Member
yoopoo said:
Even more impressive for Wii, considering:
Click to expand...

Yep. And, incidentally, as amazing as the 360's tie ratio is, we really shouldn't be surprised, it's hardware sales have been relatively slow for a while, but it's also had a year's head start on the Wii/PS3 so it's had an existing userbase longer, meaning they're more inclined (because of the length of time) to add to their game collection.
 
I

itxaka

Defeatist
Gaborn said:
tie_ratios_medium.png


Is it just me or is that devastating for Sony? My understanding was that slower selling consoles have an easier time building up their tie ratio because "new" users are added at a slower rate (meaning they don't have to buy 4-5 games to keep a tie ratio from decreasing). Forget the price of the PS3, Sony has to be horrified with this result. Similarly faster selling consoles usually don't have a high tie ratio because there are so many new users it's so difficult to maintain a consistently high number of games sold.
Click to expand...


wow. 8.1 for the 360? 5.5 for wii with the huge hardware sales?

Gaming is sure a mainstream thing now, those numbers are awesome.


It actually reflects my situation rigth now perfectly. 5 games for the wii, 5 for the ps3 and 8 for the 360
 
T

ThatObviousUser

ὁ αἴσχιστος παῖς εἶ
Can someone post the current PS2/Xbox/GCN LTD software tie-ratio for comparison?
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
I might have access to console-specific ASPs, but they may not be public. I will look.

On tie ratio for the Wii, I said this: "Our estimate of the tie ratio for the Nintendo Wii in June 2008 was around 5.5, and we believe that the tie ratio for Nintendo's platform may have held roughly constant since that time."

I believe it is possible that the Wii's tie ratio has held constant, or even gone down briefly, for a period this year. That might very well have been why Ms. Frazier wrote what she wrote, but I was not in a position to press the point on that.
 
P

Pristine_Condition

Member
Gaborn said:
tie_ratios_medium.png


Is it just me or is that devastating for Sony? My understanding was that slower selling consoles have an easier time building up their tie ratio because "new" users are added at a slower rate (meaning they don't have to buy 4-5 games to keep a tie ratio from decreasing). Forget the price of the PS3, Sony has to be horrified with this result. Similarly faster selling consoles usually don't have a high tie ratio because there are so many new users it's so difficult to maintain a consistently high number of games sold.
Click to expand...

It really depends. Presumably, with a lot of big titles on PSN, straight-up tie comparisons like this are at least somewhat lacking. Certainly more lacking than in any prior gen. With major games on the PS3 platform like Warhawk, GT5:p, Wipeout HD, SOCOM:C, Burnout Paradise, and Ratchet and Clank: Q4B, and Siren all potentially not counted if a customer decides to get them via the PSN Store, who knows what the numbers are really like? I know I personally have three of those major titles, purchased via the online store.

Nobody knows what impact sales from the three online stores are having on the bottom lines of the three platform holders. So the old-school tie ratio count and graphs are a seriously outdated way of looking at things. Especially for Sony, which has more major, premium-grade content on it's online store.

The only thing you can really gather from the chart is just what a monster the 360 is in terms of mobilizing the hardcore gamer to pick up packaged titles. It really shows the power of a hardcore, and connected, community in moving product. Wow.
 
J

Jokeropia

Member
Pristine_Condition said:
Especially for Sony, which has more major, premium-grade content on it's online store.
Click to expand...
Without any hard numbers, you're just basing this on your personal opinion which makes it completely useless as an argument.
 
T

ThatObviousUser

ὁ αἴσχιστος παῖς εἶ
Aaron Strife said:
I don't have exact numbers.

PS2 was about 10-11.

GC was 9-10.

MS never released software numbers.
Click to expand...

Ah. I would assume that's normal, for them to be high at the end of its life.
 
M

miyamotofreak

Banned
I think Sony is growing healthy in the software area. By the end of the holidays it's 2008 column will be significantly larger than it's launch+2007. The 360 sales are also boosted by a large amount of discounted titles though the PS3 is certainly catching up with the Greatest Hits line.
 
P

Pristine_Condition

Member
Jokeropia said:
Without any hard numbers, you're just basing this on your personal opinion which makes it completely useless.
Click to expand...

My point is based on facts, not opinion. The facts are that no one knows what these kinds of titles are doing in the online marketplace, so the old-school tie ratio chart is lacking, for all platforms.

That was really my only point.

I like how you trimmed and edited my post completely to try to obscure what I was actually trying to say though. You picked the one-and-only-sentence you could use to fit your agenda. Good job. :lol
 
J

Jokeropia

Member
Pristine_Condition said:
My point is based on facts, not opinion. The facts are that no one knows what these kinds of titles are doing in the online marketplace, so the old-school tie ratio chart is lacking.

That was really my only point.
Click to expand...
I didn't disagree with that. The only part I really disagreed with was the part I quoted (the assumption that it affects PS3 more than the others), that's why it was the only part I quoted.
 
P

Pristine_Condition

Member
Jokeropia said:
I didn't disagree with that. The only part I really disagreed with was the part I quoted (the assumption that it affects PS3 more than the others), that's why it was the only part I quoted.
Click to expand...

So, you don't agree that the PS3 online marketplace has more premium, "bigger" titles, and at higher price points, than any other store at this point?

Hmm. I'm interested as to why you think that statement is so controversial. I thought that was a pretty well-recognized difference in the online space at this point. Certainly the major gaming media seems to point out this difference a lot when they talk about the different online store approaches between the console holders.
 
M

matmanx1

Member
Jokeropia said:
Without any hard numbers, you're just basing this on your personal opinion which makes it completely useless as an argument.
Click to expand...

True, but it's still a good point. We can talk anecdotal evidence all day but in my very connected PSN social circle everyone I know owns at least 1 or 2 of the major PSN titles. It isnt a far stretch of the imagination to believe that (and this goes for the 360 as well since stuff like Braid and the Penny Arcade game are still exclusive and for the Wii with their virtual console) tie ratios for all of the current gen systems are vastly different than what that chart is showing.
 
J

Jokeropia

Member
I don't think the PSN store has anything that provides a reason to assume PS3 owners buy more virtual games than 360 or Wii owners.
 
S

Spiegel

Member
Jokeropia said:
I don't think the PSN store has anything that provides a reason to assume PS3 owners buy more virtual games than 360 or Wii owners.
Click to expand...

That's not the point. The point is that Wii/360 don't have big downloadable games like Wipeout HD, Siren, Q4B, GT5: Prologue, Warhawk and these titles would be retail (or retail-only) games on Wii/360 and they will count for the Tie Ratio
 
V

viciouskillersquirrel

Member
Spiegel said:
That's not the point. The point it's that Wii/360 don't have big downloadable games like Wipeout HD, Siren, Q4B, GT5: Prologue, Warhawk and these titles would be retail games on Wii/360 and they will count for the Tie Ratio
Click to expand...
I think you'd be overstating the effect. I remember some surprisingly low numbers floating around with regards to the number of consoles that had ever gone online at all, let alone bought any games off the store.
 
T

ThatObviousUser

ὁ αἴσχιστος παῖς εἶ
Spiegel said:
That's not the point. The point is that Wii/360 don't have big downloadable games like Wipeout HD, Siren, Q4B, GT5: Prologue, Warhawk and these titles would be retail games on Wii/360 and they will count for the Tie Ratio
Click to expand...

But aren't Wipeout, GT5, and Warhawk also retail titles?
 
B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
matmanx1 said:
True, but it's still a good point. We can talk anecdotal evidence all day but in my very connected PSN social circle everyone I know owns at least 1 or 2 of the major PSN titles. It isnt a far stretch of the imagination to believe that (and this goes for the 360 as well since stuff like Braid and the Penny Arcade game are still exclusive and for the Wii with their virtual console) tie ratios for all of the current gen systems are vastly different than what that chart is showing.
Click to expand...

I think his point is a sound one, though, as there are literally over a hundred titles on XBLA, any combination of which can eat up a Retail Game sized chunk of a 360 user's wallet.
 
C

charlequin

Banned
Pristine_Condition said:
So, you don't agree that the PS3 online marketplace has more premium, "bigger" titles, and at higher price points, than any other store at this point?
Click to expand...

I think it's a spots-in-line-for-the-outhouse kind of situation: whether one console is ahead of another in this area, the overall market for online titles is still so small as to be largely irrelevant compared to retail sales. (Next generation, I expect that to change.)
 
J

Jokeropia

Member
Spiegel said:
That's not the point. The point is that Wii/360 don't have big downloadable games like Wipeout HD, Siren, Q4B, GT5: Prologue, Warhawk and these titles would be retail games on Wii/360 and they will count for the Tie Ratio
Click to expand...
That's speculation, and it doesn't matter anyway since these games are not even on Wii/360 and are not driving up their tie-ratios.

Either all downloadable games count or none count. Maybe a "big" game could count as several "small" games (if you could even find acceptable definitions for these terms), but without any hard numbers, this is also just pointless speculation.
 
V

viciouskillersquirrel

Member
Jokeropia said:
That's speculation, and it doesn't matter anyway since these games are not even on Wii/360 and are not driving up their tie-ratios.

Either all downloadable games count or none count. Maybe a "big" game could count as several "small" games (if you could even find acceptable definitions for these terms), but without any hard numbers, this is also just pointless spin.
Click to expand...
Exactly.
 
B

BishopLamont

Banned
Spiegel said:
That's not the point. The point is that Wii/360 don't have big downloadable games like Wipeout HD, Siren, Q4B, GT5: Prologue, Warhawk and these titles would be retail (or retail-only) games on Wii/360 and they will count for the Tie Ratio
Click to expand...
I doubt games that don't have a big impact in retail would do any better as downloadables, especially when boxed games are still the forefront of the industry. Even if the games do bump the PS3's tie, it's still a disappointing tie-ratio when the PS3 is selling so slow.

Spiegel said:
GT5 and Warhawk yes. But they're on the store too so these sales aren't counted in the tie ratio.
Click to expand...
Why wouldn't the boxed versions be counted towards the tie-ratio?
 
S

Spiegel

Member
Jokeropia said:
That's speculation, and it doesn't matter anyway since these games are not even on Wii/360 and are not driving up their tie-ratios.

Either all downloadable games count or none count. Maybe a "big" game could count as several "small" games (if you could even find acceptable definitions for these terms), but without any hard numbers, this is also just pointless speculation.
Click to expand...

The point is, if Mario Kart, Disaster, Banjo Kazoie: Nuts & bolts or Ninja Gaiden II (i.e Big games like Wipeout, Q4B, Siren) were downloadable-only wouldn't you say that the Wii/360 tie ratio chart is lacking?

I'm not suggesting that the PS3 tie ratio would be different but the thing is that Ps3 is in a special situation (talking about downloadable games).
 
T

ThatObviousUser

ὁ αἴσχιστος παῖς εἶ
How much have Disaster, Banjo Kazoie: Nuts & Bolts and Ninja Gaiden 2 even sold? Mario Kart is a heavy hitter for sure, but the others... umm....
 
S

Spiegel

Member
Andrex said:
How much have Disaster, Banjo Kazoie: Nuts & Bolts and Ninja Gaiden 2 even sold? Mario Kart is a heavy hitter for sure, but the others... umm....
Click to expand...

Jeez don't take things so literally, these only are examples of big budget Wii/360 games. BK and Disaster aren't even out yet in most places
 
G

Gaborn

Member
Spiegel said:
The point is, if Mario Kart, Disaster, Banjo Kazoie: Nuts & bolts or Ninja Gaiden II (i.e Big games like Wipeout, Q4B, Siren) were downloadable-only wouldn't you say that the Wii/360 tie ratio chart is lacking?

I'm not suggesting that the PS3 tie ratio would be different but the thing is that Ps3 is in a special situation (talking about downloadable games).
Click to expand...

There's a very good reason why Sony press releases haven't ever really talked about the success of major titles in DLC though... and that's because they're probably only a tiny portion of their sales success. Because you know if the opposite was true they'd be screaming it in press releases everywhere.
 
S

Spiegel

Member
Gaborn said:
There's a very good reason why Sony press releases haven't ever really talked about the success of major titles in DLC though... and that's because they're probably only a tiny portion of their sales success. Because you know if the opposite was true they'd be screaming it in press releases everywhere.
Click to expand...


That's speculation :p
 
G

Gaborn

Member
Spiegel said:
That's speculation :p
Click to expand...

Of course, the whole discussion about the PSN store is speculation. The fact remains that Sony has to be horrified by their tie ratio for physical media sold.
 
P

Pristine_Condition

Member
charlequin said:
I think it's a spots-in-line-for-the-outhouse kind of situation: whether one console is ahead of another in this area...
Click to expand...


My point wasn't that one console was "ahead" in this area. Jokeropia hack-edited my post to make it seem like that was my point, but it wasn't.

My whole point was that the old-school tie ratio chart based on only retail sales is outdated, that's all.


charlequin said:
...the overall market for online titles is still so small as to be largely irrelevant compared to retail sales. (Next generation, I expect that to change.)
Click to expand...

We don't really know. We don't have the numbers. So you are speculating here. If Jokeropia was actually being consistent in his anti-speculation crusade here, he would have pointed this out, but I guess his rules only apply when the speculation goes against his philosophy.

I'd expect the market is smaller, certainly, but hardly irrelevant. Otherwise, I doubt we'd see major players in the industry jumping in so early in THIS generation, just to mark their territory for next. iTunes and Steam has shown everyone you can make money NOW, not 5 years from now.

BenjaminBirdie said:
I think his point is a sound one, though, as there are literally over a hundred titles on XBLA, any combination of which can eat up a Retail Game sized chunk of a 360 user's wallet.
Click to expand...

I totally agree. But I think this idea also strengthens my actual, original point that the old-school Tie Ratio chart based only on NPD numbers is quickly becoming more-and-more outdated. It also strengthens my point at the end of my original post in this thread that the 360's outdated, NPD-based tie is an absolute monster.

The only thing I would say about Sony's situation specifically is this: When you start offering titles online (like all three console players are doing) you start shifting some of the consumer's dollars away from retail spaces that are tracked by NPD, ect. When you do what Sony is doing (offering "big" more-expensive titles) in the online marketplace, you take a larger chunk of the individual gamer's budget that may be available for NPD-tracked titles FASTER, and with more impact on that gamer's budget on a month-to-month basis or whatever than you might with multiple, smaller, lower-priced offerings. And when you offer the same titles online that you can get at retail, (like Warhawk, GT5:p, SOCOM:C, Burnout Paradise,) some of those titles that would be purchased at retail and tracked by NPD don't count. That's all. I really don't see how this simple, factual view raises such a hubbub around here.
 
V

Version 3.0

Member
Spiegel said:
The point is, if Mario Kart, Disaster, Banjo Kazoie: Nuts & bolts or Ninja Gaiden II (i.e Big games like Wipeout, Q4B, Siren) were downloadable-only wouldn't you say that the Wii/360 tie ratio chart is lacking?

I'm not suggesting that the PS3 tie ratio would be different but the thing is that Ps3 is in a special situation (talking about downloadable games).
Click to expand...

The PS3 is in a special situation, you're right. But I believe Microsoft and Nintendo's services are considerably more successful in terms of units or dollars. Does anyone have that data handy? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think adding downloadable games would hurt the PS3's tie ratio vs. the others, not help it. And I certainly wouldn't be in favor of counting just the "could've been retail" games; that would be distorting the data.
 
T

timetokill

Banned
Gaborn said:
tie_ratios_medium.png
Click to expand...

Definitely an interesting chart. Microsoft is definitely able to organize and encourage their connected community to buy packaged titles. With Nintendo's breakneck hardware sales pace, their software sales are pretty darn impressive as well. People aren't just buying it for Wii Sports, that's for sure.

Shame we can't see downloadable sales as a part of this. I wonder how the matchup would go between the platforms.

In comparison, my packaged software collection:
360 - 9
Wii - 10
PS3 - 1
 
S

Spiegel

Member
Leondexter said:
The PS3 is in a special situation, you're right. But I believe Microsoft and Nintendo's services are considerably more successful in terms of units or dollars. Does anyone have that data handy? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think adding downloadable games would hurt the PS3's tie ratio vs. the others, not help it. And I certainly wouldn't be in favor of counting just the "could've been retail" games; that would be distorting the data.
Click to expand...

Argh...

The original point (not mine) is that you couldn't add downloadable sales from Wii/360 games like Wipeout, Siren, Q4B,... because Wiiware/XBLA don't have games like these (big budget), these games would be retail titles. And that's why PS3 is in a special situacion.
 
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