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December 2008 NPD Prediction Results (Hardware)

D

donny2112

Member
December 2008 NPD Prediction Results

1. Jokeropia - 881,000
2. starship - 966,000
3. Rekwest - 1,026,000
4. bmf - 1,039,000
5. daegan - 1,054,000
6. JoshuaJSlone - 1,064,000
7. Minsc - 1,106,000
8. SPEA - 1,127,000
9. donny2112 - 1,136,000
10. gollumsluvslave - 1,154,000
11. jett - 1,191,000
12. SIP YEK NOD - 1,216,000
13. Atreides - 1,236,000
14. apujanata - 1,286,000
14. Saiyar - 1,286,000
16. Chumly - 1,311,000
17. No_Style - 1,336,000
18. doicare - 1,344,000
19. LOCK - 1,356,000
19. Jesse2040 - 1,356,000
21. Frillen - 1,374,000
22. Antares - 1,386,000
22. SuperBanjo - 1,386,000
24. rostocker - 1,392,000
25. Kenka - 1,416,000
26. cedric69 - 1,436,000
27. RattleHead_ - 1,449,000
28. Brakara - 1,454,000
28. Gamecocks625 - 1,454,000
30. Alcibiades - 1,461,000
31. scottnak - 1,463,000
32. MikeE21286 - 1,466,000
33. Private Hoffman - 1,476,000
34. Brak - 1,477,000
35. Justin - 1,486,000
36. lowlylowlycook - 1,491,000
36. RBH - 1,491,000
38. Nirolak - 1,496,000
39. Thunder Monkey - 1,506,000
40. Accident - 1,526,000
41. Strike - 1,531,000
42. TheKurgan - 1,534,000
43. lawblob - 1,536,000
44. Hammer24 - 1,546,000
45. llonesmiz - 1,551,000
45. YuriLowell - 1,551,000
47. 1cesc - 1,553,000
48. Spiegel - 1,562,000
49. sionyboy - 1,564,000
50. B E N K E - 1,566,000
51. w3stfa11 - 1,586,000
52. jibblypop - 1,592,000
53. GhaleonEB - 1,602,000
54. Windu - 1,613,800
55. BLaZiN PRopHeT - 1,616,000
56. Vinci - 1,621,000
57. andy_lhc - 1,626,000
57. danwarb - 1,626,000
59. Shig - 1,636,000
60. boontje - 1,639,000
61. fabs115 - 1,641,000
62. jamesinclair - 1,641,778
63. John Dunbar - 1,679,000
63. Paracelsus - 1,679,000
65. Opiate - 1,684,000
66. Omikaru - 1,694,000
67. Jonsoncao - 1,704,000
67. ScythD - 1,704,000
69. Gaborn - 1,714,000
70. Fantastical - 1,716,000
70. rikitikitik - 1,716,000
72. bcn-ron - 1,720,000
73. GC|Simon - 1,726,000
73. Osuwari - 1,726,000
75. Linkup - 1,731,000
76. Bankoiia - 1,734,000
77. duk - 1,746,000
78. Flakster99 - 1,751,000
79. pseudocaesar - 1,764,000
80. RobertM - 1,772,000
81. kefka2030 - 1,778,230
82. Bananakin - 1,784,000
83. Jackano - 1,786,000
83. Knastluder - 1,786,000
85. Shurs - 1,814,000
86. botticus - 1,816,000
87. StefanTheMongol - 1,819,000
88. markatisu - 1,836,000
88. Yo Gotti - 1,836,000
90. archnemesis - 1,846,000
91. Frankfurter - 1,851,000
92. jj984jj - 1,854,000
93. Wii-za - 1,859,000
94. Arsenic - 1,864,000
95. D.Lo - 1,866,000
95. Sadist - 1,866,000
97. Pachter - 1,884,000
98. Orgen - 1,885,000
99. ChrisGoldstein - 1,886,000
100. PS3GamerKyle - 1,904,000
101. zsidane - 1,906,000
102. jeremy1456 - 1,911,000
103. JaCy - 1,926,000
104. Jon - 1,927,000
105. scorpian007 - 1,934,000
106. OldJadedGamer - 1,936,000
106. Sindou_Hikaru20 - 1,936,000
108. CitizenCope - 1,951,000
109. sinnergy - 1,956,000
110. D4Danger - 1,986,000
111. Hunter D - 2,006,000
112. Corum - 2,016,000
113. PantherLotus - 2,031,000
114. billy.sea - 2,034,000
115. Sir Fragula - 2,036,000
115. skedar897 - 2,036,000
117. HiResDes - 2,044,000
118. Wes - 2,064,000
119. Syringe - 2,066,000
120. DayShallCome - 2,079,000
121. LiquidMetal14 - 2,088,000
122. dyls - 2,096,000
123. BladedExpert - 2,104,000
124. jey_16 - 2,114,000
125. akilshohen - 2,116,000
126. HocusPocus - 2,136,000
127. Foil - 2,151,000
128. Bo130 - 2,164,000
128. Vustadumas - 2,164,000
130. bigGIRLSblouse - 2,196,000
131. Ydahs - 2,208,000
132. Psychotext - 2,218,000
133. choodi - 2,224,000
134. AniHawk - 2,226,000
135. Hcoregamer00 - 2,246,000
135. Wyndstryker - 2,246,000
137. kiruyama - 2,264,000
138. h3ro - 2,286,000
138. JavyOO7 - 2,286,000
138. SuperDowns - 2,286,000
141. MrVargas - 2,296,000
142. Steeven - 2,314,000
143. timetokill - 2,330,000
144. Yes Boss! - 2,346,000
145. shykyoichi - 2,374,000
146. Gamemaster_ca_2003 - 2,384,000
147. Snaku - 2,386,000
148. kmfdmpig - 2,406,000
149. SilverLunar - 2,436,000
149. Xisiqomelir - 2,436,000
151. Zhuk - 2,466,000
152. ThatHurt - 2,474,510
153. jvm - 2,519,000
154. Hyllian - 2,526,000
155. goomba - 2,534,000
156. manueldelalas - 2,606,000
156. MIMIC - 2,606,000
158. EvilMario - 2,616,000
159. bjaelke - 2,644,000
160. Insane Metal - 2,686,000
161. flipping_heck - 2,712,000
162. The Interrobanger - 2,726,000
163. QuickSilverD - 2,764,000
164. Keavy_Rain - 2,836,000
165. DuMaurier - 2,866,000
166. Sleeker - 2,894,000
167. AlucarD.eq - 2,896,000
168. Scott32020 - 2,906,000
169. domokunrox - 2,934,000
170. 2 Minutes Turkish - 2,936,000
171. perfectchaos007 - 2,945,000
172. N.A - 2,986,000
173. TJ Spyke - 3,061,000
174. FateBreaker - 3,106,000
175. AzureJericho - 3,136,000
176. Gadfly - 3,294,000
177. NemesisPrime - 3,506,000
178. Wilsongt - 3,546,000
179. MotherFan - 4,662,800
180. besiktas1 - 6,566,000
181. Pachinko - 7,026,000
182. Cooter - 7,734,000

Congratulations, Jokeropia! :D
 
Points Results

Code: 
     December 2008               Last 3 Months                Overall 2008
1.   Jokeropia          134.16   Jokeropia           359.17   doicare             1,284.49
2.   starship           132.69   lowlylowlycook      351.32   starship            1,279.73
3.   Rekwest            129.67   starship            347.72   Jokeropia           1,261.79
4.   bmf                124.95   Frillen             340.18   donny2112           1,249.71
5.   JoshuaJSlone       121.16   apujanata           338.78   botticus            1,239.15
6.   donny2112          119.39   Strike              336.62   llonesmiz           1,231.49
7.   daegan             119.28   donny2112           334.11   DayShallCome        1,220.44
8.   SPEA               118.75   doicare             332.18   JoshuaJSlone        1,214.53
9.   jett               115.3    Gaborn              330.13   dyls                1,212.00
10.  SIP YEK NOD        114.98   Chumly              329.39   Brak                1,207.10
11.  gollumsluvslave    114.36   sionyboy            328.42   rostocker           1,206.20
12.  Atreides           113.58   Yes Boss!           327.44   Strike              1,202.01
13.  Antares            112.44   1cesc               327.39   Pachter             1,201.26
14.  cedric69           110.87   rikitikitik         325.49   danwarb             1,200.17
15.  apujanata          109.63   Jesse2040           324.37   Frillen             1,195.29
16.  Minsc              109.36   RBH                 324.12   SuperBanjo          1,195.01
17.  YuriLowell         107.64   rostocker           320.07   Psychotext          1,186.00
18.  rostocker          106.69   llonesmiz           319.51   rikitikitik         1,183.36
19.  doicare            105.87   Rekwest             319.49   RBH                 1,182.48
20.  Chumly             105.66   Brak                318.79   Brakara             1,179.08
21.  sionyboy           104.28   botticus            318.75   AniHawk             1,175.23
22.  No_Style           104.23   BLaZiN PRopHeT      318.72   scottnak            1,174.76
23.  Accident           104.16   Pachter             317.85   Yes Boss!           1,164.31
24.  Justin             103.86   Thunder Monkey      317.28   Frankfurter         1,157.24
25.  Jesse2040          103.72   bcn-ron             316.49   Chumly              1,156.34
26.  Strike             103.56   Brakara             316.37   Hammer24            1,155.49
27.  1cesc              103.44   RobertM             316.28   Flakster99          1,155.37
28.  andy_lhc           103.09   No_Style            315.88   nextgeneration      1,147.40
29.  Brakara            103.07   SIP YEK NOD         315.28   Spiegel             1,146.51
30.  Saiyar             102.94   scottnak            314.74   SIP YEK NOD         1,142.98
31.  B E N K E          102.91   skedar897           313.89   apujanata           1,126.11
32.  John Dunbar        102.91   timetokill          313.29   Thunder Monkey      1,123.62
33.  Gamecocks625       102.89   danwarb             312.89   choodi              1,119.50
34.  Private Hoffman    102.85   Linkup              312.87   Linkup              1,105.74
35.  rikitikitik        102.56   Hammer24            312.61   Jesse2040           1,099.64
36.  Brak               102.52   JoshuaJSlone        312      blitz64             1,093.15
37.  Kenka              102.52   SuperBanjo          311.56   Osuwari             1,080.45
38.  BLaZiN PRopHeT     102.43   Jonsoncao           310.2    N.A                 1,079.97
39.  SuperBanjo         102.34   DayShallCome        309.92   JJConrad            1,070.68
40.  scottnak           102.29   Osuwari             309.58   archnemesis         1,066.31
41.  Osuwari            102.16   boontje             306.62   Ydahs               1,063.69
42.  Nirolak            102.15   Alcibiades          305.3    Minsc               1,057.22
43.  Opiate             102.11   Ydahs               305.05   Region-FreeWii      1,052.94
44.  RattleHead_        102.09   SPEA                305.01   boontje             1,051.50
45.  LOCK               102.02   N.A                 304.34   andy_lhc            1,043.84
46.  Shig               101.92   jibblypop           301.72   kefka2030           1,032.93
47.  MikeE21286         101.9    dyls                300.19   LiquidMetal14       1,014.16
48.  RBH                101.71   John Dunbar         297.33   BLaZiN PRopHeT        992.64
49.  Gaborn             101.67   Scott32020          297.28   John Dunbar           987.98
50.  Alcibiades         101.54   archnemesis         295.36   jibblypop             985.14

Congratulations to Jokeropia for the monthly and quarterly title (Pachter won December and Q4 last year, FYI)!

Congratulations to doicare for taking the 2008 Overall title!

winner_is_you.jpg



About 10% of the participants got the ordering correct, including my second time ever. :D

In the on-going saga of JoshuaJSlone vs. Pachter, it looks like Pachter's 3.25 million Wii prediction and JoshuaJSlone's 1.95 million Wii prediction was the deciding factor as JJS pulls ahead at the finish line. :)
 
Analyst Comparison

Since I haven't posted this since June (I think), here's how this works.

* Only 360, NDS, PS3, PSP, and Wii are compared, since simExchange doesn't predict for the PS2.
* Only the percentage correct on each console * 20 points is considered so no bonus for correct order or unit ranking.
* Pachter represents Wedbush Morgan Securities.
* Jesse2040 represents EEDAR.
* simExchange is the simExchange.
* GAF_Agg is everyone who predicted each month not named Jesse2040, Pachter, or simExchange.
* GAF_spec is the Top 20 posters from 2007, and it is a subset of GAF_Agg.

Points Results

Code: 
     December 2008               Last 3 Months                Overall 2008	
1.   GAF_spec           87.93    Jesse2040           264.89   GAF_spec            1,013.46
2.   Jesse2040          85.67    GAF_spec            261.09   GAF_Agg               988.14
3.   simExchange        85.41    Pachter             254.61   Pachter               984.54
4.   GAF_Agg            83.55    GAF_Agg             253.61   simExchange           974.1
5.   Pachter            80.65    simExchange         253.54   Jesse2040*            920.9
* - No January prediction. Second place behind GAF_spec for Feb-08 - Dec-08.


Ana_Compare-2.png
 
Damn you Wii and DS, you need to switch places!

Congrats Jokeropia and doicare.
 
Whew. I thought I blew my shot at a top 25 finish overall with this round.

Settled in a cool 22nd right behind Anihawk. *shakes fist* Next year!!
 
scottnak said:
Whew. I thought I blew my shot at a top 25 finish overall with this round.

Settled in a cool 22nd right behind Anihawk. *shakes fist* Next year!!
Click to expand...

And one slot above me!

Though I missed January so I'm only working off of eleven months. I'm hoping to make it in the top ten next year.
 
Thanks donny for the effort.

I think #2 in December, #3 in the last 3 months and #2 in the Overall 2008 is very good.
Btw, After I saw doicare's Wii prediction I was pretty sure he was way off and I would gain more points but damn, it was not enough to fill the gap between us in the overall 2008 :D
 
Yes Boss! said:
thanks donny!

looking forward to next year!
Click to expand...

Yes, looking forward to this year. So pissed that I didn't submit my predictions in time for December. Oh well...I still came in #28 for the year, so not a total loss. :lol
 
so I'm guessing that Pachter doesn't actually post on GAF and that you guys just use his official statements as his predictions? Would be cool if he did post on GAF.
 
DanteFox said:
so I'm guessing that Pachter doesn't actually post on GAF and that you guys just use his official statements as his predictions? Would be cool if he did post on GAF.
Click to expand...
he does post occasionally, but yes, they use his official statement as his prediction.

edit: beaten
 
Next year I'll have to make sure I enter every month, my previous 3 months were pretty good, but I missed out on a few prediction threads around Spring time. Hey ho.

Donny, thanks for the effort you put into all of this. If I was wearing a hat I'd tip it in your general direction.

DanteFox said:
so I'm guessing that Pachter doesn't actually post on GAF and that you guys just use his official statements as his predictions? Would be cool if he did post on GAF.
Click to expand...

He posts here, look for the user michaelpachter
 
Nintendo killed me this month :lol

My combined miss for Nintendo products: 2,001,000 (Missed Wii by 1183k, DS by 818k)

My combined miss for all other products: 329,000 (Missed PS2 by only 34k!)


Damn you, Nintendo, and your misleading supply problems!!! :D
 
I went for broke in December and ended up screwed by Nintendo once again. :lol

Still, I'm happy enough with top 20 overall for the year.
 
First of all i'd like to thank donny2112 for taking the time to make these threads and work out the results, cheers dude.

In terms of points i had a pretty average month but in terms of predicting each console i was pretty good except for the wii......

_ _ _ Doicare_ _NPD_ _Num. diff._ _% diff._ _ _Points
[NDS] 2800K / 3040k - 240k diff. = 7.9% diff. / 18.42
[_Wii] 3050K / 2150k - 900k diff. = 29.5% dif. / 14.10
[360] 1400K / 1440k - _40k diff. = 2.8% diff. / 19.44
[PSP] _880K / 1020k - 140k diff. = 13.7% diff. / 17.26
[PS3] _740K / _726K - _14k diff. = 1.9% diff. / 19.62
[PS2] _420K / _410K - _10k diff. = 2.4% diff. / 19.52

(you know i probably still don't get the points system, but donny2112 when i add up my points i get 108.36 instead of 105.87, what am i doing wrong?)

Also a little something i've heard down the grape vine, is this month npd lowered the wii results to make up for overtracking the wii in previous months, just file that little snippet under rumours for now.

So looking back in 2008 it was a great year for doicare. He provided ground breaking research into the ever popular topic of kids influencing wii sales during the school holidays, he further reinforced the moral and ethical standings of gaf posters that have homer simpson avatars, and finailly he took the gaf prediction league by storm and in his first full year of competing in the bloody battle to the death that is known as 'sales numbers' he came out on top. So what's next for doicare in 2009?.....................i'm coming for you Pachter. :D

15qx752.jpg
 
doicare said:
First of all i'd like to thank donny2112 for taking the time to make these threads and work out the results, cheers dude.
Click to expand...

:)

doicare said:
(you know i probably still don't get the points system, but donny2112 when i add up my points i get 108.36 instead of 105.87, what am i doing wrong?)
Click to expand...

Divide the difference by the units it sold in the month instead of by what was predicted.

doicare said:
Also a little something i've heard down the grape vine, is this month npd lowered the wii results to make up for overtracking the wii in previous months, just file that little snippet under rumours for now.
Click to expand...

NPD does go back and correct their LTDs from time to time, but I thought they usually did it ninja-like by just giving out a LTD that happened to not match the monthly totals. It's reasonable that they could've chosen to do it with a monthly value, if it wasn't an extrememly large difference, though. Interesting rumor. :)
 
53. GhaleonEB - 1,602,000

Wii supply constraints are what killed me - and everyone else. But hey, that same issue saved my hide in the overall 2008 prediction. You win some you lose some. :lol

Thanks donny.
 
Woo-hoo, 10th overall for the year. Top 5 next year!

Thanks to Donny and Cheese and everyone else who helps with this stuff.
 
donny2112 said:
22. SuperBanjo - 1,386,000
Click to expand...
Not bad, not bad.

It's amazing how unpredictable those Wii hardware sales are. I saw a lot of people predicting over 3 million, but I thought that Nintendo may have blown most of their load in November (and even then, I was still 500k off). Actually, DS was unpredictable as well (3 million units, damn).
 
Top 10 for me this time round - of course the Wii and supply totally wiped me out.

Almost bang on for a lotof stuff

My predicts (real in brackets)
[360] 1450k (1440k)
[NDS] 2810k (3040k)
[PS2] 525k (410k)
[PS3] 765k (726k)
[PSP] 900k (1020k)
[WII] 2790k (2150k)


360 spot, on, little bit high on PS3. 100k over on PS2, 100k under on PSP.

Wii and DS really hosed it for me tho.
 
FoxHimself said:
How the hell does Pachter get to keep his job? 96 people were better than him last month, and he's the seventh worst for the 2008 predictions. Jeez.
Click to expand...
Hard to believe but his job is more than predicting HW numbers each month.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
This is perhaps putting him on a bit of a pedestal, but nobody cared how good Michael Jordan was at baseball. :lol
Click to expand...
Sure they did. I watched every sports news show air his every strike out.
 
Fuzzy said:
Sure they did. I watched every sports news show air his every strike out.
Click to expand...
Pachter is a software man at heart is what he's getting at though.

Hardware is just a bonus.

I love that he indulges in that game of friendly rivalry with Josh though. :lol
 
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