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The Official 2009 NPD Prediction Thread

C

Cheesemeister

Member
This prediction thread covers the grand total of all console hardware sales as given in the NPD reports from January through December 2009. This is the only thread that I will run the parser on.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 4 p.m. EST on Saturday, January 31st. That's fifteen days from today and one day before January's NPD prediction thread goes up. Format use is absolutely required.

Do not use decimal points or "m"/"million" in your predictions. If you predict over 1 million for a system, you can use 1000K or more to get to your prediction. Be careful to use the appropriate number of place values so you don't over or understate your predictions by a factor of 10. People who have such outliers will be disqualified.

Format:

[360]
[NDS]
[PS2]
[PS3]
[PSP]
[WII]

Good

[360] 5500K
[360] 5500000
[360] 5,500,000

Bad

[360] 5.500.000
[360] 5.5 million
[360] 5.5m
[360] - 5.5 m
360 - 5 million

2008 Results

NPD said:
[WII] 10,170,989
[NDS] 9,951,108
[360] 4,735,403
[PSP] 3,828,746
[PS3] 3,544,966
[PS2] 2,503,231
Click to expand...

2007 Results

NPD said:
[NDS] 8,500k
[WII] 6,290k
[360] 4,620k
[PS2] 3,970k
[PSP] 3,820k
[PS3] 2,560k
Click to expand...

Potentially significant releases for 2009
(No guarantee these'll come out in 2009. Also, this list is not meant to be comprehensive.)

360 - Alan Wake, Bioshock 2, FFXIII, Forza 3, Halo Wars, RE5
NDS - DSi hardware, Blue Dragon+, DQ IX, DQV, GTA Chinatown Wars, Mario & Luigi RPG 3, Rhythm Heaven
PS2 - $99 price drop
PS3 - Bioshock 2, FFXIII, vs. XIII, GOW III, GT5, Killzone 2, RE5, Uncharted 2
PSP - Dissidia, LocoRoco 2, Patapon 2, Resistance Retribution, The Third Birthday
WII - Fatal Frame IV, Monster Hunter 3 (Tri), Punch-Out!!, S&P 2, The Conduit, Wii Sports Resort

2008 NPD Prediction Thread
2007 NPD Prediction Thread
2006 NPD Prediction Thread
 
[WII] 12000000
[NDS] 9000000
[360] 5500000
[PSP] 3600000
[PS3] 3000000
[PS2] 1800000

Edit Notes:

The Wii will have more supply this year, but continue to be supply constrained.

The DS just had it's best year. It will continue to be a staple purchase, but will be be slightly dampened by the higher price of the DSi.

The 360 will benefit from it's lower pricetag all year round. Another price drop could boost it further.

The PSP will continue to sell, but as a way for people to pirate games. Every so often a release will come around that people buy, but not often.

The PS3 just had it's best year. Any future exclusives will be unlikely to provide much of a bump, and Microsoft will make sure that everyone knows that FFXIII is available on the 360.

The PS2 will continue to sell as a staple system. Some people will replace systems, and others will see it as a great opportunity for budget gaming.
 
Thanks cheese.

[WII] 12,100,000
[NDS] 8,850,000
[360] 4,450,000
[PSP] 4,900,000
[PS3] 3,800,000
[PS2] 1,700,000

That's it. I do think we kinda saw a spike this year. Next one should be more reasonable. But, man what a tough year to predict...
 
Cheese, you should probably include the DSi in the "significant releases" section.

I'll get numbers in here, but I predict I will not do nearly as well as my 2008 predictions.
 
[WII] 9,500,000
[NDS] 10,000,000
[360] 6,300,000
[PSP] 4,550,000
[PS3] 3,500,000
[PS2] 1,125,000

Wii is not going to sell more than 2008: we had Mario Kart Wii and Brawl, Wii Fit and a lot of killer app in 2008. 2009 does not seem to have THIS bigger (it will, but not on the Mario Kart or Brawl level).

The DS will increase with the relase of the DSi and new functionalities.

The 360 will increase on Japan and Europe. Getting more RPGs and a lot of good games.

The PSP will increase with the relase of Birth by Sleep and Agito (maybe?) and Dissidia being relased on NA/EU.

The PS3 is not going to sell much if a price cut is not introduced immediatly, and with the economy being fucked up lately, it's harder and harder seing people spending 349$ with ease.

The PS2 will start to go down and down till his permanent death, which will occur in 2010.
 
[NDS] 11,200,000
[WII] 11,150,000
[360] 5,300,000
[PS3] 4,100,000
[PSP] 3,100,000
[PS2] 2,685,000

DS: the DSi will make it a winner.
Wii: most people who wanted one will have gotten one by now. Supply issues were still extant in some of 2008; the software hits won't be as big this year, so it will stabilize a little bit, though still dominating.
360: price cut will not just be shown through the holiday season but year round. Lots of holiday games that people missed out on plus a nice lineup will increase its sales a bit.
PS3: I'll be bold and predict the price cut happens eventually. It'll be nice, but it's kind of too little, too late.
PSP: so little software. The Iphone has so many games coming out. I'll be bold here and say PSP sales will decrease.
PS2: I'll be bold again and say a new trend is arising; people are on a budget and with a system this cheap and this large a catalog of games AND with the occasional new hit (Persona 4) AND the price drop, the PS2 will have a slight resurgence. People with only a Wii or people who have no console or people who want a new console might come here.
 
Cheesemeister said:
Rushed? You were disqualified for missing the deadline!
Click to expand...
:lol

Dunno how it will impact hardware, but Halo 3 ODST might bear a mention alonside Halo Wars.

This year is going to be tough. Nintendo's Wii supply is a big question mark. I'm not sure how to balance the 360 Arcade hitting $200 against the other SKUs, the economy and the tendency for 360 sales to be really stagnant until the holidays. And the only way PS3 sales will uptick is with a solid $100 cut, and it's anyone's guess there.

I'll get my submission in tonight. Going to be an even mix of analysis and dart throwing. It's going to be a crazy year. It might make 2008 seem tame by comparison.
 
The path to prognostilogical™ paradise is perilous.

Take this.

8ab308d6.png


The first question I asked.
 
[360] 4400K
[NDS] 9050K
[PS2] 1700K
[PS3] 3500K
[PSP] 3400K
[WII] 9200K

2009 isn't easier than 2008. My prediction:

360 in its fourth year, sales will slow down a bit, but price drop(s) will keep the console in reasonable sales level. Recession hurts the premium market (pro and elite).

PS3 can totally kick my ass with significant price drops and/or a overall improved redesign (that allows a price drop), but so far it doesn't seem to have many things to improve the sales (wait for Killzone? Really???). Recession hurts the sales.

PS2 is dying, slowly. The reason why I give it 1700k sales is because of a possible price drop anytime in 2009.

PSP doesn't have anything special except a small chance of a price drop. It's unlikely unless the sales go significantly down. Don't know if a new redesign can boost sales.

Now the DS in its fifth year. It could break some sales record, and there is a new redesign coming. On the other hand, Nintendo won't drop the price except the sales go down very quickly, and I think they are happier with 8 to 9 million handhelds sold without a price drop than 9 to 10 million with decreased hardware revenue.

Same can be said for the Wii, though I'm not sure how I should count the possibility of new colours.

There are a lot of insecurities (recession, price strategy, unknown release schedule), therefore my predictions are once again pretty conservative. Basically, Nintendo can push the numbers easily over 10 million for each hardware and make me look worse than last in the last year's prediction, if they want it.
 
[WII] 13,500,000
[NDS] 10,000,000
[360] 4,500,000
[PSP] 3,400,000
[PS3] 5,300,000
[PS2] 1,400,000
 
[360] 4,900,000
[NDS] 12,000,000
[PS2] 2,000,000
[PS3] 3,700,000
[PSP] 3,500,000
[WII] 13,000,000



360 - More big exclusives announced throughout year to drive sales. Price drop in fall if PS3 price drop happens.
NDS - DSi drives huge sales
PS2 -Drops to $99 but sales lower as more people can afford a 360/Wii
PS3 - Price drop can really change this, no price drop = worse sales than 2008. Price drop = better sales than 2008.
PSP - Can't keep up with DSi
WII - Not as many huge hitters but they finally meet demand and release new colors which = sold out once again
 
Yazus said:
Wii is not going to sell more than 2008: we had Mario Kart Wii and Brawl, Wii Fit and a lot of killer app in 2008. 2009 does not seem to have THIS bigger (it will, but not on the Mario Kart or Brawl level).
Click to expand...
As long as supply is greater than demand and supply keeps growing, the potential is there. If supply ceases being greater than demand, having the thing's first price cut should remedy the situation. PS2's peak year came from a sales burst when it dropped to $200; I wonder if Wii will be the same.
kodt said:
Just seems silly that you would have such strict regulations when there is no reward.
Click to expand...
The rules on what entries should look like is so that his parser can automatically pick up everyone's entries correctly. The time deadline... well, it's got to end some time.
 
kodt said:
Just seems silly that you would have such strict regulations when there is no reward.
Click to expand...
If you don't play, you can't win. Also. If you don't play now, you'll always be known as that guy who walked into the thread to complain about other posters making predictions about how the next year would play out.
 
[WII] 13,700,000
[NDS] 12,500,000
[360] 5,200,000
[PSP] 3,500,000
[PS3] 4,500,000
[PS2] 1,500,000

I think I'm being too generous for the PS3 but hopefully we see a redesign and a $300 price by Christmas.

DS is going to be Massive in its fifth year, even better than its fourth. Probably will be its peak year, IMHO.
 
kodt said:
Just seems silly that you would have such strict regulations when there is no reward.
Click to expand...
Not everyone does stuff for a reward.

And there's simple pragmatism in the rules: the tracking to actuals is done via an automated script, so he doesn't have to spend hours tallying stuff up. If you don't follow the format rules, your prediction does not get counted. In the past, ambiguous rules led to people being grouchy about not getting counted. So now everything is spelled out explicitly so they are clear and hard to miss, and it has been this way in every monthly (and annual) NPD prediction thread for a couple of years now.

If he was looking for some reward, I think he'd have cashed in by now.
 
[WII] 10,750,000
[NDS] 11,600,000
[360] 5,000,000
[PSP] 3,000,000
[PS3] 4,000,000
[PS2] 1,500,000

WII - better supply but 2008 was insane already
NDS - DSi
360 - extended effect of the price drop
PSP - consistent but a wee bit less popular
PS3 - assuming sony doesn't drop the price or drops just $50
PS2 - fading out.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
The rules on what entries should look like is so that his parser can automatically pick up everyone's entries correctly. The time deadline... well, it's got to end some time.
Click to expand...

GhaleonEB said:
Not everyone does stuff for a reward.

And there's simple pragmatism in the rules: the tracking to actuals is done via an automated script, so he doesn't have to spend hours tallying stuff up. If you don't follow the format rules, your prediction does not get counted. In the past, ambiguous rules led to people being grouchy about not getting counted. So now everything is spelled out explicitly so they are clear and hard to miss, and it has been this way in every monthly (and annual) NPD prediction thread for a couple of years now.

If he was looking for some reward, I think he'd have cashed in by now.
Click to expand...

It makes perfect sense, I simply asked because he used such strong language I assumed more was at stake and was curious.
 
[WII] 12,100,000
[NDS] 9,700,000
[360] 5,500,000
[PSP] 3,900,000
[PS3] 3,800,000
[PS2] 1,300,000

I 'predict' gains for the Wii, and the 360, holds for the DS, and PSP, and decreases for the PS3, and PS2.
 
[WII] 13,500k
[NDS] 9,500k
[360] 5,500k
[PSP] 3,200k
[PS3] 3,500k
[PS2] 2,000k
 
[WII] 12,500k
[NDS] 10,000k
[360] 4,500k
[PSP] 4,000k
[PS3] 4,000k
[PS2] 1,500k

Few notes:

1) Increased Wii production. DS holding steady, but not increasing it over 2008's highs.

2) 360 featuring flat growth, as Microsoft has predicted despite the competitive pricing. Also, while we haven't seen the software lineup, there doesn't appear to be many studios in the pipeline producing anything with potentially gigantic sales like a Gears or a Halo (not sure if I'd classify Recon as that...)

3) PS3 sales increase thanks to better western software (Killzone 2, Gran Turismo 5 if it releases, Uncharted 2, MAG, etc.) and a price cut to $299. Will be fairly even with the 360 in the US if this happens (pending no major 360 price cuts, which I don't expect). PS3 will see significant gains in Europe and Japan over the 360 next year, however.

4) PSP sales slightly up. I'm expecting better PSP software in the US. I think LittleBigPlanet may come out for it next year, which would be a great fit for the platform.

5) PS2 sales drastically down. I doubt Sony drops the price. Should be PS2's nearly final year on retail shelves.
 
[WII] 20,000,000 (who the fuck knows, really)
[NDS] 11,000,000
[360] 5,800,000
[PSP] 2,000,000
[PS3] 5,500,000 (i think they will cut the price)
[PS2] 1,900,000 (still viable but the lack of AAA software)
 
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