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donny2112 · Nov 1, 2009

We're predicting for five games that I'm reasonably sure will be in the Top 10 for the month.

Games/Format:

[360 Forza 3]
[360 Halo 3: ODST]
[PS3 Uncharted 2]
[WII Wii Fit Plus]
[WII Wii Sports Resort]

[Total SW $ in millions]

Code:

Good                    Bad
[360 Forza 3] 300K      [360 Forza 3] 300 thousand
[360 Forza 3] 300,000   [360 Forza 3] 300.000
[360 Forza 3] 300000    [360 Forza 3] - 300,000

The Hardware Prediction thread is here.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EST on Sunday, November 8th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: October 4-31 (4 weeks, September was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: November 12th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Code:

                         Aug 2009  Sep 2009

[360 Halo 3: ODST]            ---    1,520K
[WII Wii Sports Resort]      754K      443K

[Total SW $ in millions]     470       649

Days available in tracking period (new releases):

360 Forza 3 - 5 days
PS3 Uncharted 2 - 19 days
WII Wii Fit Plus - 28 days

WaltJay · Nov 1, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 550k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 400k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 750k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 900k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 550k

[Total SW $ in millions] 600

Blablurn · Nov 1, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 430k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 470k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 650k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 840k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 650k

[Total SW $ in millions] 700

templeusox · Nov 1, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 250k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 300k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 950k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 865k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 470k

[Total SW $ in millions] 650

szaromir · Nov 1, 2009

I think Borderlands is quite likely to be in Top 10, so we should predict that as well. How big was software market this September and last October (too lazy to look for the numbers)?

GavinGT · Nov 1, 2009

I see Brutal Legend (360) stealing the tenth spot.

UbiSoftologist · Nov 1, 2009

donny2112 said:
We're predicting for five games that I'm reasonably sure will be in the Top 10 for the month.

Games/Format:

[360 Forza 3]
[360 Halo 3: ODST]
[PS3 Uncharted 2]
[WII Wii Fit Plus]
[WII Wii Sports Resort]

[Total SW $ in millions]

I would like to add Borderlands to my prediction list because most online sales charts (Amazon, Gamestop, etc.) have shown that it would probably be a Top-10 title. Here is my sales forecast:

[360 Borderlands] 280K
[360 Forza 3] 250K
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 750K

[PS3 Uncharted 2] 600K
[PS3 Borderlands] 130K

[WII Wii Fit Plus] 400K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 220K

[Total SW$ in millions] 550

shinshero · Nov 1, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 490k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 369k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 745k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 720k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 330k
[360 Borderlands] 310K
[PS3 Borderlands] 185K

[Total SW $ in millions] 620

boontje · Nov 1, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 300k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 275k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 550k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 475k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 425k

[Total SW $ in millions] 575

BruceLeeRoy · Nov 1, 2009

I never actually post in the prediction thread but I wanted to say it is uncanny to me how close some of you guys get with your numbers.

Averon · Nov 1, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 300k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 250k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 620k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 400k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 360k
[360 Borderlands] 240K
[PS3 Borderlands] 200K

AnIco · Nov 1, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 150k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 220k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 600k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 325k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 375k

[Total SW $ in millions] 600

andy_lhc · Nov 2, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 300k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 350k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 460k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 500k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 485k

[Total SW $ in millions] 645

Accident · Nov 2, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 280k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 280k
[PS3 Uncharted 2]500k
[WII Wii Fit Plus]400k
[WII Wii Sports Resort]350k

[Total SW $ in millions] 550

[360 Borderlands] 450K
[PS3 Borderlands] 210K
[360 Brutal Legend] 230K

VegaShinra · Nov 2, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 475k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 425k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 575k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 700k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 475k

[Total SW $ in millions] 625

user_nat · Nov 2, 2009

Forza 3 only has 500k people listed on its leaderboards, and 300k of those were there before the game launched in North America, so I think people may be expecting to much.

[360 Forza 3] 275k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 225k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 470k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 630k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 500k

[Total SW $ in millions] 600

Brakara · Nov 2, 2009

user_nat said:
Forza 3 only has 500k people listed on its leaderboards, and 300k of those were there before the game launched in North America, so I think people may be expecting to much.

It was around 265k people on the leaderboards before the US launch, and it had around 510k by the end of Saturday. But the math isn't really that simple, since only, what, 60% has XBL? There's lots of offline players out there.

That being said, I'll be surprised if it sells more than the 360 version of Borderlands as Americans love to pew pew.

Gadfly · Nov 2, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 150k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 100k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 980k

rikitikitik · Nov 2, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 411k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 456k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 439k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 508k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 276k

[Total SW $ in millions] 501

gottalovetheglove · Nov 2, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 310k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 385k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 405k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 650k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 325k

[Total SW $ in millions] 585

Pretty close this month, methinks.

donny2112 · Nov 3, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 225K
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 250K
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 300K
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 500K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 500K

[Total SW $ in millions] 575

Ondore · Nov 4, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 290k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 190k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 410k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 700k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 350k

[Total SW $ in millions] 515

Brakara · Nov 4, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 275k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 250k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 475k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 425k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 350k

[Total SW $ in millions] 525

botticus · Nov 4, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 300k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 350k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 400k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 500k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 360k

[Total SW $ in millions] 550

Hammer24 · Nov 5, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 325K
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 275K
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 455K
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 855K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 455K

[Total SW $ in millions] 625

gillty · Nov 5, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 385k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 350k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 435k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 445k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 510k

[Total SW $ in millions] 600

boontje · Nov 6, 2009

Are people aware Nintendo estimates the first 3 weeks of sales of Wii Fit Plus in the US to be below 400k? It is in one of the slides:

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/091030/07.html

botticus · Nov 6, 2009

boontje said:
Are people aware Nintendo estimates the first 3 weeks of sales of Wii Fit Plus in the US to be below 400k? It is in one of the slides:

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/091030/07.html

Prediction revised. I was going to lowball it initially but the GAF consensus swayed me.

EXGN · Nov 6, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 310K
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 350K
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 685K
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 475K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 375K

[Software] 575 mil

[360 Borderlands] 275K
[PS3 Borderlands] 150K

EDIT: Redid the way I posted

KittyKittyBangBang · Nov 6, 2009

Tough one to judge, a lot of good titles debuted in October

[360 Forza 3] 260K
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 370K
[360 Borderlands] 220K
[360 GH5] 190K

[PS3 Uncharted 2] 570K
[PS3 Borderlands] 130K

[WII Wii Fit Plus] 66K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 500K

[Software] 540 mil

DaveTheSnake · Nov 7, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 155K
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 345K
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 1000K
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 575K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 375K

[Total SW $ in millions] 625

[360 Borderlands] 285K
[PS3 Borderlands] 175K

whizthekid · Nov 7, 2009

[360 Forza 3]200k
[360 Halo 3: ODST]300k
[PS3 Uncharted 2]540k
[WII Wii Fit Plus]425k
[WII Wii Sports Resort]350k

[Total SW $ in millions] 500

catchabad0ne · Nov 7, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 320k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 420k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 570k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 600k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 560k

And If we we are doing Borderlands:

[360 Borderlands] 280K
[PS3 Borderlands] 180K

[Total SW $ in millions] 640

apujanata · Nov 8, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 250K
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 260K
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 450K
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 470K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 440K

[Total SW $ in millions] 590K

RBH · Nov 8, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 325k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 525k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 500k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 475k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 375k

[Total SW $ in millions] 700

NeoUltima · Nov 8, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 315k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 500k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 600k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 500k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 440k

[Total SW $ in millions] 555k

rostocker · Nov 8, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 333K
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 280K
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 400K
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 565K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 390K

[Total SW $ in millions] 580

llonesmiz · Nov 8, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 320K
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 350K
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 370K
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 410K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 370K

[Total SW $ in millions] 560

John Dunbar · Nov 8, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 250,000
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 265,000
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 460,000
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 460,000
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 420,000

[Total SW $ in millions] 585

Hazaro · Nov 8, 2009

I never do these, but hell...

[360 Forza 3] 320K
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 540K
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 530K
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 585K
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 260K

If we we are doing Borderlands:

[360 Borderlands] 480K
[PS3 Borderlands] 130K

[Total SW $ in millions] 645

Road · Nov 8, 2009

[360 Forza 3] 260k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 200k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 500k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 450k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 350k

[Total SW $ in millions] 610

UbiSoftologist · Nov 10, 2009

2 more players joining our prediction game

: Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities and Jesse Divnich of EEDAR.

Mr Pachter's software prediction:

Wii Fit Plus: 400K
Borderlands: 400K
Brutal Legends: 300K
DJ Hero: 150K
Total software sales: $697M

Mr Divnich's software prediction:

Uncharted 2: 601K
Wii Fit Plus: 450K
Wii Sports Resort: 325K
Borderlands (X360): 300K
Halo 3: ODST: 290K
Brutal Legend (X360): 200K
NBA 2K10 (X360): 200K
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games: 200K
Forza Motorsport 3: 190K
original Wii Fit: 175K
Demon's Souls: 100K
Total software sales: $620M

Source: Gamespot (http://www.gamespot.com/news/6239455.html?om_act=convert&om_clk=topstory&tag=topstory;title)

PS: I don't think Demon Souls only sold through 100K in October...My estimate is 180K.

user_nat · Nov 13, 2009

I think it's safe to say.. that pretty much everyone was wrong on everything.

Although it seemed to get better as the thread went.

apujanata · Nov 13, 2009

apujanata said:
[360 Forza 3] 250K -75K off
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 260K - 11K off
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 450K - 87K off
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 470K - 29K off
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 440K - 126K off

[Total SW $ in millions] 590K - unknown ?

Worst prediction : Wii Sports Resort

andy_lhc · Nov 13, 2009

andy_lhc said:
[360 Forza 3] 300k
[360 Halo 3: ODST] 350k
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 460k
[WII Wii Fit Plus] 500k
[WII Wii Sports Resort] 485k

[Total SW $ in millions] 645

360 Forza 3 - off by 125k
360 Halo 3: ODST - off by 79k
PS3 Uncharted 2 - off by 77k
WII Wii Fit Plus - off by 59k
WII Wii Sports Resort - off by 171k

Wii Sports and Forza totally killed my prediction.......

Brakara · Nov 13, 2009

Was way off with UC2 and FM3, but the others weren't too bad.

FM3 100k
UC2 62k
Wii Sport Resorts 36k
Halo 3 21k
Wii Fit Plus 16k

Total: 235k

donny2112 · Nov 14, 2009

October 2009 NPD Software Prediction Results

Code:

     October 2009                Last 3 Months                Overall 2009
1.   AnIco              91.89    Accident            271.56   apujanata           692.88
2.   whizthekid         91.87    boontje             257.4    boontje             677.2
3.   Accident           91.81    rostocker           252.04   llonesmiz           672.5
4.   Brakara            91.69    Brakara             248.01   botticus            660.29
5.   Road               90.97    botticus            241.89   rostocker           657.8
6.   John Dunbar        90.5     apujanata           237.41   GAF Average         657.76
7.   apujanata          88.04    GAF Average         233.5    Brakara             648.25
8.   boontje            86.32    llonesmiz           223.33   RBH                 641.15
9.   donny2112          79.39    rikitikitik         221.24   andy_lhc            627.32
10.  botticus           79.18    donny2112           220.48   donny2112           604
11.  GAF Average        78.71    andy_lhc            216.37   Hammer24            592.31
12.  EXGN               77.8     Ondore              208.73   rikitikitik         564.15
13.  llonesmiz          76.41    RBH                 201.99   TwinIonEngines      540.88
14.  Averon             76.28    Hammer24            187.96   billy.sea           527.54
15.  rostocker          75.71    Orbitcube           160.91   Jesse2040           517.34
16.  DaveTheSnake       75.05    Road                157.59   WaltJay             488.94
17.  user_nat           72.26    TwinIonEngines      151.5    The M.O.B           454.28
18.  UbiSoftologist     71.24    John Dunbar         146.15   Chumly              452.07
19.  Orbitcube          71.06    NR1                 138.88   Accident            437.39
20.  Valru              67.71    Chumly              136.8    John Dunbar         419.61
21.  NeoUltima          64.05    The M.O.B           131.75   shykyoichi          390.59
22.  andy_lhc           63.45    VegaShinra          131.47   Ondore              266.88
23.  KittyKittyBangBang 62.9     NeoUltima           129.79   perfectchaos007     263.58
24.  Ondore             62.11    billy.sea           128.97   VegaShinra          229.4
25.  Hammer24           61.75    WaltJay             112.13   _Alkaline_          204.58
26.  shinshero          61.35    Archie               93.24   NR1                 202.91
27.  RBH                57.31    AnIco                91.89   starship            201.72
28.  rikitikitik        57.24    whizthekid           91.87   kefka2030           197.75
29.  VegaShinra         55.22    shykyoichi           85.56   laserbeam           197.39
30.  Hazaro             53.35    Jesse2040            83.87   Aaron Strife        195.64
31.  catchabad0ne       48.32    EXGN                 77.8    zsidane             195.38
32.  templeusox         44.74    GhaleonEB            76.45   beermonkey@tehbias  167.37
33.  WaltJay            37.51    Averon               76.28   Orbitcube           160.91
34.  Gadfly             28.02    Dynoro               75.19   Road                157.59
35.  Blablurn           23.01    DaveTheSnake         75.05   Frillen             147.09

Congratulations, AnIco!

Hope you can see this even through the ban.

apujanata · Nov 15, 2009

Congrats, Anico.

I didn't do too badly this month. Only two more months to go.

donny,
how many person predict every months in 2009 ?

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