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donny2112 · Nov 29, 2009

We're predicting for five games that I'm reasonably sure will be in the Top 10 for the month with some leaning to what EEDAR predicts will make the Top 10 for the month.

Games/Format:

[360 Assassin's Creed II]
[360 Modern Warfare 2]
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II]
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2]
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii]

[Total SW $ in millions]

* - Indicates EEDAR cannot confirm game in the monthly Top 10 at the time of this thread's posting. (N/A for this month.)

Code:

Good                              Bad
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 2000K      [360 Modern Warfare 2] 2.0m
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 2,000,000  [360 Modern Warfare 2] 2.000.000
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 2000000    [360 Modern Warfare 2] - 2,000,000

The Hardware Prediction thread is here.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EST on Sunday, December 6th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: November 1-28 (4 weeks, October was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: December 10th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Code:

                         Sep 2009  Oct 2009

[Total SW $ in millions]      649       573

Oct-08 -> Nov-08 SW $
   697      1450 (+108%)

360 Assassin's Creed 1 (Nov-07) - 980K
PS3 Assassin's Creed 1 (Nov-07) - 377K
360 Modern Warfare 1 (Nov-07) - 1,570K
PS3 Modern Warfare 1 (Nov-07) - 444K
WII Super Mario Galaxy (Nov-07) - 1,120K

Days available in tracking period (new releases):

360/PS3 Assassin's Creed II - 12 days
360/PS3 Modern Warfare 2 - 19 days
WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii - 14 days

thestopsign · Nov 29, 2009

I'm going to be way off on these, but these games are going to all be fucking huge. I'll edit in the SW $ later, I have no point of reference without a bit of digging.

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 830,000
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3,100,000
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 300,000
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 950,000
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1,600,000

[Total SW $ in millions] 1740

andy_lhc · Nov 29, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 830k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3050k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 580k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1100k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1480k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1550

VegaShinra · Nov 30, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 850k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3500k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 350k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1000k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1550k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1750k

WaltJay · Nov 30, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 650k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 2300k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 300k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 800k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1500k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1600

pseudocaesar · Nov 30, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 800k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3000k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 400k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1000k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1750k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1700

MikeE21286 · Nov 30, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 900k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3000k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 550k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1100k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1200k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1750k

MrDaravon · Nov 30, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 900,000
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3,500,000
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 700,000
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 2,200,000
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1,300,000

Uh, is everyone WAY underestimating MW2, at least on 360? As of right now (one day past the reporting period) the lowest rank person on my friends list on any of the MW2 leaderboards is at 5.1 million. I'm sure there's a moderate amount of rental copies out there, but there's also still people who don't play online/have Live either. Also probably a ton of copies were bought on Black Friday within the reporting period as Christmas gifts.

MikeE21286 · Nov 30, 2009

SailorDaravon said:
Uh, is everyone WAY underestimating MW2, at least on 360? As of right now (one day past the reporting period) the lowest rank person on my friends list on any of the MW2 leaderboards is at 5.1 million. I'm sure there's a moderate amount of rental copies out there, but there's also still people who don't play online/have Live either.

you gotta figure that some people outside of America bought the game

MrDaravon · Nov 30, 2009

MikeE21286 said:
you gotta figure that some people outside of America bought the game

I am an idiot :lol

ZeroRay · Nov 30, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 1000k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3200k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 600k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1100k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1200k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1750k

Jonsoncao · Nov 30, 2009

SailorDaravon said:
[360 Assassin's Creed II] 900,000
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3,500,000
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 700,000
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 2,200,000
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1,300,000

Uh, is everyone WAY underestimating MW2, at least on 360? As of right now (one day past the reporting period) the lowest rank person on my friends list on any of the MW2 leaderboards is at 5.1 million. I'm sure there's a moderate amount of rental copies out there, but there's also still people who don't play online/have Live either. Also probably a ton of copies were bought on Black Friday within the reporting period as Christmas gifts.

the lowest ranking friend of mine is at 5.4m :lol

axiomnightmare · Nov 30, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 830,000
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3,300,000
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 350,000
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1,700,000
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1,600,000
[Total SW $ in millions] 1700

People need to remember that MW2 sold over 3.5 million first day alone, so any numbers less than 4 million total have basically zero chance of happening.

akilshohen · Nov 30, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 900k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3500k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 500k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1500k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1250k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1900 (I really don't know how to estimate)

TheFallen · Nov 30, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 900k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3700k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 600k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1800k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1500k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1850k

rikitikitik · Dec 1, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 920k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3350k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 760k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1470k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1680k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1620

Somnia · Dec 1, 2009

People saying 5.4 million ranking online must remember that that includes overseas when doing your numbers and we know it did like 1.5 in the UK already minimum. However it will break 3.5 million on 360 and 1.5 million on ps3 with ease I think.

gottalovetheglove · Dec 1, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 850k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3250k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 440k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1100k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1450k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1800

donny2112 · Dec 1, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 1100K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3000K
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 500K
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1100K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1250K

[Total SW $ in millions] 1450

DaveTheSnake · Dec 2, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 800k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3200k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 475k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1750k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1100k

[Total SW $ in millions] 2000k

Brakara · Dec 2, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 1200k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3250k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 900k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1750k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1300k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1800

botticus · Dec 2, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 750k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 2800k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 500k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1300k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1400k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1500

adamsapple · Dec 2, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 800k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3600k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 450k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1000k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1300k

[Total SW $ in millions] 2000

Hammer24 · Dec 4, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 1155K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 2755K
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 555K
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1555K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1255K

[Total SW $ in millions] 1655

RBH · Dec 5, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 1100k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 2800k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 600k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 800k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1200k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1600

The M.O.B · Dec 5, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 850K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3100K
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 650K
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 2200K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1320K

[Total SW $ in millions] 1650

whizthekid · Dec 6, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II]1000k
[360 Modern Warfare 2]2000k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II]750k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2]1250k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii]1500k

[Total SW $ in millions]1750

apujanata · Dec 6, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 940K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 2850K
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 430K
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1200K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1250K

[Total SW $ in millions] 1520

shinshero · Dec 6, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 731,000
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 4,238,277
[360 Left4Dead 2] 560,000
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 574,000
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 2,684,243
[PS3 Uncharted 2] 234,000
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1,700,000
[PC Modern Warfare 2] 156,973
[Total SW $ in millions] 1780

gimmmick · Dec 6, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 940,000
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 4,611,700
[360 Left4Dead 2] 810,000
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 404,000
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 2,122,243
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1,200,000

[Total SW $ in millions] 2.200

will123456 · Dec 6, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 1000k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 2900k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 600k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 800k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1200k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1600

rostocker · Dec 6, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 800K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3250K
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 457K
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1300K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1200K

[Total SW $ in millions] 1600

llonesmiz · Dec 6, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 1200K
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 2400K
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 490K
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 950K
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1100K

[Total SW $ in millions] 1550

John Dunbar · Dec 6, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 920,000
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 2,900,000
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 450,000
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1,200,000
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1,450,000

[Total SW $ in millions] 1550

boontje · Dec 6, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 800k
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3900k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 500k
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1700k
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1500k

[Total SW $ in millions] 1425

kay · Dec 6, 2009

[360 Assassin's Creed II] 922000
[360 Modern Warfare 2] 3210000
[PS3 Assassin's Creed II] 556000
[PS3 Modern Warfare 2] 1380000
[WII New Super Mario Bros. Wii] 1450000

[Total SW $ in millions] 1780

donny2112 · Dec 11, 2009

November 2009 NPD Software Prediction Results

Code:

     November 2009               Last 3 Months                Overall 2009
1.   boontje            102.74   boontje             284.61   apujanata           876.12
2.   botticus            93.67   rostocker           258.74   boontje             856.32
3.   apujanata           89.91   botticus            255.53   botticus            831.12
4.   DaveTheSnake        88.46   GAF Average         248.9    rostocker           819.65
5.   gimmmick            86.97   Orbitcube           245.52   GAF Average         819.24
6.   chandoog            86.34   apujanata           242.21   llonesmiz           817.31
7.   rostocker           86.13   Brakara             239.91   Brakara             794.73
8.   TheFallen           85.88   donny2112           228.99   andy_lhc            776.60
9.   akilshohen          85.74   John Dunbar         228.71   donny2112           764.20
10.  axiomnightmare      85.6    rikitikitik         227.75   RBH                 763.59
11.  Orbitcube           84.61   andy_lhc            225.27   Hammer24            737.10
12.  donny2112           84.05   VegaShinra          210.75   WaltJay             639.52
13.  GAF Average         83.48   llonesmiz           210.11   rikitikitik         634.60
14.  John Dunbar         82.56   Hammer24            196.72   billy.sea           616.50
15.  kay                 81.18   RBH                 192.05   Jesse2040           615.04
16.  The M.O.B           79.84   Accident            191.27   TwinIonEngines      608.91
17.  shinshero           79.44   WaltJay             179.8    The M.O.B           608.88
18.  VegaShinra          79.28   DaveTheSnake        163.51   John Dunbar         580.28
19.  andy_lhc            78.24   Road                157.59   Chumly              523.32
20.  SailorDaravon       77.97   whizthekid          154.56   Accident            437.39
21.  pseudocaesar        77.51   Ondore              147.53   shykyoichi          390.59
22.  MikeE21286          76.13   The M.O.B           142.09   VegaShinra          308.68
23.  Stopsign            74.39   shinshero           140.79   starship            270.93
24.  Hammer24            73.99   Archie               93.24   kefka2030           267.31
25.  ZeroRay             72.34   AnIco                91.89   Ondore              266.88
26.  rikitikitik         70.45   gimmmick             86.97   perfectchaos007     263.58
27.  will123456          67.7    chandoog             86.34   Orbitcube           245.52
28.  WaltJay             67.67   TheFallen            85.88   Frillen             224.01
29.  llonesmiz           65.36   akilshohen           85.74   _Alkaline_          204.58
30.  RBH                 64.71   axiomnightmare       85.6    NR1                 202.91
31.  Brakara             62.7    shykyoichi           85.56   laserbeam           197.39
32.  whizthekid          62.69   TwinIonEngines       82      Aaron Strife        195.64
33.                              kay                  81.18   zsidane             195.38
34.                              SailorDaravon        77.97   Flakster99          192.67
35.                              EXGN                 77.8    beermonkey@tehbias  167.37

Congratulations, boontje! You swept the November prediction results!

andy_lhc · Dec 11, 2009

Congratulations, boontje! You swept the November prediction results!

This guy must have some insider news...somehow...:lol

botticus · Dec 11, 2009

... how did I get #2? I could have sworn as I off on everything. Wow.

Oh, I thought my AC2 predictions were lower, that makes it a little more understandable.

Brakara · Dec 11, 2009

I knew I had a bad month, but not this bad. :lol

boontje · Dec 11, 2009

And to think I was almost too late for the software prediction

Only drawback... I can only go down from here.

adamsapple · Dec 11, 2009

Booya

lucky number 6

akilshohen · Dec 11, 2009

Fine in Nine!

apujanata · Dec 15, 2009

boontje said:
And to think I was almost too late for the software prediction

Only drawback... I can only go down from here.

Congrats for getting #1. Didn't notice donny's update, so didn't comment before.

Depending on how badly I do for December, and how good you do for December. it is still possible for us to swap places in 2009 Overall.

I underestimated Modern Warfare 2, hence my big difference. Predicting this game for December will be quite difficult. Should I put big drop (>50%), or should I put small drop (<50%) ? Since I didn't play this game, it is more difficult for me to predict it.

boontje · Dec 15, 2009

apujanata said:
Congrats for getting #1. Didn't notice donny's update, so didn't comment before.

Depending on how badly I do for December, and how good you do for December. it is still possible for us to swap places in 2009 Overall.

I underestimated Modern Warfare 2, hence my big difference. Predicting this game for December will be quite difficult. Should I put big drop (>50%), or should I put small drop (<50%) ? Since I didn't play this game, it is more difficult for me to predict it.

Thanks, I'll try to give you a run for your money but you're easily the favorite. 20 points is still a big gap.

December will definitely be a challenge. Modern Warfare selling some unprecedented number in November means we don't really have any games to compare it with. Unless Activision releases some statement when crossing a sales mark before the next round of predictions.

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