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The Official 2010 NPD Prediction Thread

C

Cheesemeister

Member
This prediction thread covers the grand total of all console hardware sales as given in the NPD reports from January through December 2010.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 4 p.m. EST on Sunday, January 31st. Format use is absolutely required.

Do not use decimal points or "m"/"million" in your predictions. If you predict over 1 million for a system, you can use 1000K or more to get to your prediction. Be careful to use the appropriate number of place values so you don't over or understate your predictions by a factor of 10. People who have such outliers will be disqualified.

Format:

[360]
[NDS]
[PS2]
[PS3]
[PSP]
[WII]

Good

[360] 5500K
[360] 5500000
[360] 5,500,000

Bad

[360] 5.500.000
[360] 5.5 million
[360] 5.5m
[360] - 5.5 m
360 - 5 million

2009 Results
NPD said:
[NDS] 11,185,400
[WII] 9,594,000
[360] 4,770,700
[PS3] 4,334,500
[PSP] 2,495,900
[PS2] 1,799,900
Click to expand...

2008 Results

NPD said:
[WII] 10,170,989
[NDS] 9,951,108
[360] 4,735,403
[PSP] 3,828,746
[PS3] 3,544,966
[PS2] 2,503,231
Click to expand...

2007 Results

NPD said:
[NDS] 8,500,000
[WII] 6,290,000
[360] 4,620,000
[PS2] 3,970,000
[PSP] 3,820,000
[PS3] 2,560,000
Click to expand...

Potentially significant releases for 2010
(No guarantee these'll come out in 2010. Also, this list is not meant to be comprehensive.)

360 - Alan Wake, Crackdown 2, Fable III, FFXIII, Halo Reach, Mass Effect 2, Natal
NDS - DQVI, DQIX, Golden Sun DS, Pokémon HG/SS
PS2 - $50 price drop
PS3 - FFXIII, vs. XIII, FFXIV, GOW III, GT5, Heavy Rain, The Last Guardian, MAG
PSP - KH: BBS, MGS: PW, VC2
WII - Epic Mickey, Metroid: Other M, Monster Hunter 3 (Tri), NMH2, S&P2, SMG2

2009 NPD Prediction Thread
2008 NPD Prediction Thread
2007 NPD Prediction Thread
2006 NPD Prediction Thread
 
May as well add Zelda Wii to the list of upcoming Wii games.

I'll add some predictions later.

[NDS] 10500K
[WII] 9000K
[360] 4500K
[PS3] 4500K
[PSP] 1300K
[PS2] 1300K
 
Hmm... will Wii sales hold steady... will PSP continue to drown... will 360 sales stay pretty much the same for the 4th year in a row? Lots of interesting things to look at.
 
[NDS] 10,00,000
[WII] 12,050,000
[360] 4,200,000
[PS3] 3,900,000
[PSP] 2,000,000
[PS2] 1,550,000

I believe this is gonna be the Wii´s best year in terms of hardware. No limited supply issues, a lot of great games and a potential price cut AND a potential new hardware version to push sales. Might go even higher if that happened.
 
[NDS] 11,000,000
[WII] 8,500,000
[360] 4,950,000
[PS3] 5,400,000
[PSP] 2,500,000
[PS2] 1,100,000

NDS about the same really, might be rumours of NDS2 that'll hold this down. With no NSMBWii I don't think the Wii can get close to the megabucks of last year. 360 a small bumb due to Halo Reach and Natal but it feels like this is the peak. PS3 to put on another million or so due to GT5, FF13 and probable summer price cut. PSP same or so driven by MGS. As for PS2, it'll be like an OAP with Alzheimers, the start of the long inevitable decline.
 
[360] 6,000,000
[NDS] 11,500,000
[PS2] 1,300,000
[PS3] 5,000,000
[PSP] 1,600,000
[WII] 8,900,000

I didn't spend too much time analyzing the figures, but here goes.
360: Natal will make or break it, otherwise it's going to be another 4.7m.
NDS: Rise even higher to heaven.
PS2: Aging very gracefully.
PS3: 2010 will yet be the best PS3 sales year. Year of PS3 continues!
PSP: PSPGo is no go.
Wii: Sales YoY will go down because of other manufacturers' waggles. I'll probably eat crow for this one.
 
This year it seems to be very hard to make a good prediction. Last year there are at least some safe bets (360, PS3, PS2 are predictable, though I never thought PSP would underperform by such an extent).
 
selig said:
[NDS] 10,00,000
[WII] 12,050,000
[360] 4,200,000
[PS3] 3,900,000
[PSP] 2,000,000
[PS2] 1,550,000

I believe this is gonna be the Wii´s best year in terms of hardware. No limited supply issues, a lot of great games and a potential price cut AND a potential new hardware version to push sales. Might go even higher if that happened.
Click to expand...

Your NDS numbers are busted :D

Mine:

[NDS] 10,000,000
[WII] 9,000,000
[360] 5,000,000
[PS3] 5,000,000
[PSP] 2,200,000
[PS2] 1,400,000
 
[360] 4500K
[NDS] 8500K
[PS2] 1200K
[PS3] 4200K
[PSP] 1800K
[WII] 9200K

I'll come back later with more thought out predictions, but this is at least something to put down to avoid missing the cutoff.
 
[NDS] 10,400,000
[WII] 9,300,000
[360] 5,900,000
[PS3] 5,100,000
[PSP] 2,000,000
[PS2] 1,500,000

WII, NDS will slightly decline and level out.

360, sales up 1 million, halo reach & possibly natal will be system sellers
PS3, sales up but not sure if GT5 will bring what many and sony think, GOW will be huge bundle hit, FFXIII will be interesting comparison between 360/ps3, FFXIV expected on 360 and not really system seller

PS2, PSP sales will continue to decline
 
[360] 5100k
[NDS] 9500k
[PS2] 1100k
[PS3] 5100k
[PSP] 2500k
[WII] 9500k

I expect hardware sales to be down yoy, mostly because I think the Wii and DS have hit their peak years individually. Not to say that they are suddenly going to do horribly, but they should be down, as the PS2 hit its peak three years in and the Wii did as well, it just didn't drop off quite as much thanks to a great holiday. The DS got an extra boost last year from the DSi that I don't see it getting this year. I bumped up the PS3 a bit due to residual PS3 Slim sales, and a relatively strong lineup. 360 will be up in the fall, not really seeing that much in the way of clear system sellers until fall though. Most of its big games are sequels, which in truth aren't system sellers as much as their first iterations are. PSP should be constant unless the PSP2 is released, which just fucks up everything. PS2 will decline but will still sell because of the low price point.
 
[NDS] 9900K
[WII] 9100K
[360] 4100K
[PS3] 4400K
[PSP] 1800K
[PS2] 1000K

I think there's already a good console:household ratio in the USA, therefore the sales should be on decline, even when prices go down. I could be totally wrong though, if there are way more consumers willing to buy multiple consoles than in the past.
 
Why the hell not.

[NDS] 10,100,000
[WII] 9,400,000
[360] 4,900,000
[PS3] 4,100,000
[PSP] 1,850,000
[PS2] 1,100,000

[NDS2] 3,000,000
 
[NDS] 11,500,000
[WII] 10,000,000
[PS3] 4,400,000
[360] 4,350,000
[PSP] 2,800,000
[PS2] 1,300,000
 
[WII] 11,239,500
[NDS] 11,131,400
[360] 6,017,000
[PS3] 4,934,900
[PSP] 1,488,600
[PS2] 835,000


Wii back in the lead, baby!
 
[WII] 9,845,000
[NDS] 7,432,000
[360] 6,940,000
[PS3] 5,112,000
[PSP] 1,198,000
[PS2] 1,009,000

And for the hell of it: [NATAL] 1,062,000
 
[360] 4700k
[NDS] 12000k
[PS2] 1750k
[PS3] 4750k
[PSP] 2000k
[WII] 9500k

To defend my predictions, I feel the PS3 and 360 are already around parity. I don't believe that Natal or Arc will change this situation. The PS2 and PSP will continue their YOY declines from last year, I don't know what could change this situation. The Wii will continue to do extremely well during the holiday season. During the rest of the year, it remains to be seen if Nintendo can spark purchases during the slower months, but I suspect it'll do at least as well as it has in the past and as such, the Wii will sell at around the same rate as it did in the previous year. I do think there are still households which do not own a Wii that are still interested, perhaps at a lower price point. It's still the system to get during the holidays and I believe that cache will support sales at this higher volume. As for the DS, I suspect we'll continue to see extremely high sales despite the system's age. Replacement systems (both for broken devices and upgrades from DS/DSLite, much like iPods) will continue to fuel the insane sales. :D
 
[NDS] 11,100,000
[WII] 7,290,000
[360] 4,720,000
[PS2] 1,440,000
[PSP] 2,120,000
[PS3] 5,360,000
 
[NDS] 10,800,000
[WII] 9,600,000
[360] 5,700,000
[PS3] 5,500,000
[PSP] 2,400,000
[PS2] 1,000,000
 
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