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donny2112 · Jul 3, 2010

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EDT on Sunday, July 11th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: May 30-July 3 (5 weeks, May was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: July 15th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[360]
[NDS]
[PS3]
[PSP]
[WII]

Code:

Good              Bad
[NDS] 500K        [NDS] 500 thousand
[NDS] 500,000     [NDS] 500.000
[NDS] 500000      [NDS] - 500000

The Software Prediction thread is here.

Potential hardware impacting events in June:
360 Slim @ $299, Arcade -> $150, Elite -> $250 - mid-June

May's Results - thanks to NPD and EviLore

EviLore said:
PlayStation 3 154.5K
PSP 59.4K
Xbox 360 194.6K
Wii 334.8K
Nintendo DS 383.7K

RED DEAD REDEMPTION 360 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE May-10 945.9K
RED DEAD REDEMPTION PS3 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE May-10 567.1K
SUPER MARIO GALAXY 2 WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA May-10 563.9K
UFC 2010: UNDISPUTED 360 THQ May-10 221.1K
UFC 2010: UNDISPUTED PS3 THQ May-10 192.3K
WII FIT PLUS W/BALANCE BOARD* WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Oct-09
NEW SUPER MARIO BROS. WII WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Nov-09
ALAN WAKE * 360 MICROSOFT May-10
POKEMON SOULSILVER VERSION NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA Mar-10
SKATE 3 360 ELECTRONIC ARTS May-10

(*includes CE, GOTY editions, bundles, etc. but not those bundled with hardware)

May-09 -> Jun-09 transition:

Code:

      May-09  Jun-09   % change
360     175K    241K   + 38%
NDS     634K    767K   + 21%
PS3     131K    165K   + 26%
PSP     100K    164K   + 64%
WII     290K    362K   + 25%

May Prediction Results

archnemesis · Jul 3, 2010

[360] 295k
[NDS] 485k
[PS3] 195k
[PSP] 75k
[WII] 395k

hxa155 · Jul 3, 2010

[360] 280k
[NDS] 360k
[PS3] 180k
[PSP] 80k
[WII] 350k

NeoUltima · Jul 3, 2010

[360] 280k
[NDS] 440k
[PS3] 200k
[PSP] 82k
[WII] 400k

scottnak · Jul 3, 2010

[360] 277k
[NDS] 431k
[PS3] 189k
[PSP] 72k
[WII] 388k

Saiyar · Jul 3, 2010

[360] 300k
[NDS] 450k
[PS3] 200k
[PSP] 75k
[WII] 350k

Dedication Through Light · Jul 3, 2010

[360] 220K
[NDS] 331K
[PS3] 210K
[PSP] 97K
[WII] 220K

lol, guess Ill join in too

EDIT: lol, raised from the original guess of 280K (NDS)

TTP · Jul 3, 2010

[360] 300k
[NDS] 400K
[PS3] 200k
[PSP] 100K
[WII] 350K

Pooya · Jul 3, 2010

[360] 430k
[NDS] 350k
[PS3] 180k
[PSP] 55k
[WII] 350k

Aad · Jul 3, 2010

[360] 310,000
[NDS] 400,000
[PS3] 180,000
[PSP] 60,000
[WII] 300,000

Megadragon15 · Jul 3, 2010

[360] 270k
[NDS] 420k
[PS3] 160k
[PSP] 60k
[WII] 320k

Culex · Jul 3, 2010

[360] 240k
[NDS] 450k
[PS3] 180k
[PSP] 50k
[WII] 350k

perfectchaos007 · Jul 3, 2010

[360] 244K
[NDS] 377K
[PS3] 188K
[PSP] 75K
[WII] 404K

my goal is to not get last place this month :/

Jokeropia · Jul 4, 2010

[360] 360k
[NDS] 500k
[PS3] 195k
[PSP] 74k
[WII] 400k

KuwabaraTheMan · Jul 4, 2010

[360] 292,000
[NDS] 460,000
[PS3] 196,000
[PSP] 79,000
[WII] 435,000

LiquidMetal14 · Jul 4, 2010

[360] 264kk
[NDS] 421k
[PS3] 179k
[PSP] 68k
[WII] 389k

V_Ben · Jul 4, 2010

First time in this thread, so here's my best shot

[360] 365k
[NDS] 346k
[PS3] 320k
[PSP] 90k
[WII] 350k

jvm · Jul 6, 2010

From our friend, Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities:

7/26-30 (est.) June NPD U.S. video games sales data release.

Later on in his comments he says (emphasis added):

We expect NPD U.S. retail video game console software sales data for the month of June to be released in late July. The delay (from its usual second Thursday of the month) is due to an internal technology update at NPD (the May data was delayed 3 weeks).

N.A · Jul 6, 2010

[360] 350k
[NDS] 420k
[PS3] 180k
[PSP] 65k
[WII] 370k

MinnesotaFatz · Jul 6, 2010

[360] 475k
[NDS] 330k
[PS3] 155k
[PSP] 95k
[WII] 275k[/QUOTE]

andy_lhc · Jul 6, 2010

[360] 295k
[NDS] 410K
[PS3] 210k
[PSP] 101K
[WII] 370K

donny2112 · Jul 6, 2010

jvm said:
From our friend, Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities:
Later on in his comments he says (emphasis added):

Thanks for posting it! Looks like we get another extra week for predictions.

Jonsoncao · Jul 6, 2010

[360] 325k
[NDS] 490k
[PS3] 190k
[PSP] 76k
[WII] 410k

360's trajectory is really hard to extrapolate, so by how much the sales went up during those two n half weeks? any news or data donny2112?

jvm · Jul 6, 2010

donny2112 said:
Thanks for posting it! Looks like we get another extra week for predictions.

Just trying to help. Is there a mod in these threads regularly who can change the thread title?

JoshuaJSlone · Jul 6, 2010

[NDS] 450K
[Wii] 430K
[360] 330K
[PS3] 190K
[PS2] 91K
[PSP] 90K

Scott32020 · Jul 8, 2010

[360] 340k
[NDS] 365k
[PS3] 195k
[PSP] 60k
[WII] 325k

ReBurn · Jul 8, 2010

[360] 320K
[NDS] 450K
[PS3] 190K
[PSP] 90K
[WII] 350K

user_nat · Jul 8, 2010

I'm still depressed after my performance last month. Don't even care now!

[360] 321K
[NDS] 420K
[PS3] 200K
[PSP] 80K
[WII] 320K

Dedication Through Light · Jul 8, 2010

^

I hate to intrude, but I think anything over 400K for DS is just outlandish, tbh. All overshot it last month, nothing on DS to force sales, lol.

v

WaltJay · Jul 8, 2010

[360] 295k
[NDS] 480k
[PS3] 175k
[PSP] 45k
[WII] 325k

starsky · Jul 8, 2010

[360] 400k
[NDS] 475k
[PS3] 185k
[PSP] 70k
[WII] 380k

donny2112 · Jul 9, 2010

Dedication Through Light said:
I hate to intrude, but I think anything over 400K for DS is just outlandish, tbh.

You're forgetting that this month was 5 weeks vs. last month being 4 weeks. Anyone predicting 400K or under for DS is assuming that sales dropped 17% or more. That seems a tad unlikely. Edit: Oh, and since you are you, "lol".

[NDS] 450K
[WII] 425K
[360] 305K
[PS3] 175K
[PSP] 100K

jvm · Jul 9, 2010

NPD just informed me that the June 2010 data will be released on 15 July 2010. This is contrary to the expectations posted earlier, and I've emailed donny2112 to let him know. He'll decide how things will run here, of course.

jj984jj · Jul 9, 2010

[360] 325k
[NDS] 417k
[PS3] 186k
[PSP] 82k
[WII] 390k

FrankT · Jul 9, 2010

jvm said:
NPD just informed me that the June 2010 data will be released on 15 July 2010. This is contrary to the expectations posted earlier, and I've emailed donny2112 to let him know. He'll decide how things will run here, of course.

Was just going to come in here and ask if it was going to be moved up every month. Back to normal good stuff.

modulaire · Jul 9, 2010

[360] 260k
[NDS] 420k
[PS3] 210k
[PSP] 75k
[WII] 390k

botticus · Jul 9, 2010

[PS3] 200k
[PSP] 70k
[360] 325k
[WII] 400k
[NDS] 460k

I never even saw the prediction results last month, didn't realize I did so well! Too bad I'm still a longshot for anything remotely like a decent finish after missing a month somewhere.

donny, any chance we can have a separate "Avg Points Per Appearance" ranking so we can see how people do when they remember to compete? :lol

donny2112 · Jul 9, 2010

jvm said:
NPD just informed me that the June 2010 data will be released on 15 July 2010.

Oh, crap! So there's no delay after all. :lol Guess we're back to predictions being due by July 11 at 5 p.m. EDT, then. They can't go to July 18, now.

Thanks, jvm!

Edit:

botticus said:
donny, any chance we can have a separate "Avg Points Per Appearance" ranking so we can see how people do when they remember to compete? :lol

For the year? That should be doable. There'll probably be a minimum # of appearances, though.

seady · Jul 9, 2010

[360] 280K
[NDS] 380K
[PS3] 170K
[PSP] 60K
[WII] 320K

SonicX_Zero · Jul 9, 2010

[360] 250k
[NDS] 410k
[PS3] 185k
[PSP] 75k
[WII] 345k

JoshuaJSlone · Jul 9, 2010

donny2112 said:
You're forgetting that this month was 5 weeks vs. last month being 4 weeks. Anyone predicting 400K or under for DS is assuming that sales dropped 17% or more. That seems a tad unlikely.

That, plus June has been pretty strong for DS in general. Only in 2009 did it do worse per-week than May, but still nowhere near 17% down per week.

2005: +96%
2006: +307% (DS Lite launch)
2007: +33%
2008: +73%
2009: +21%

Cheech · Jul 9, 2010

[360] 450k
[NDS] 360k
[PS3] 150k
[PSP] 65k
[WII] 300k

astroturfing · Jul 9, 2010

[360] 250k
[NDS] 365k
[PS3] 142k
[PSP] 51k
[WII] 315k

Koralsky · Jul 9, 2010

[360] 433k
[NDS] 455k
[PS3] 221k
[PSP] 127k
[WII] 350k

Sadist · Jul 9, 2010

[360] 305k
[NDS] 401k
[PS3] 245k
[PSP] 65k
[WII] 380k

confuziz · Jul 9, 2010

[360] 450k
[NDS] 495k
[PS3] 225k
[PSP] 80k
[WII] 380k

lowlylowlycook · Jul 9, 2010

[PS3] 190k
[PSP] 70k
[360] 280k
[Wii] 400k
[DS] 460k

Hyllian · Jul 9, 2010

[PS3] 200K
[PS2] 92K
[PSP] 87K
[NDS] 460K
[360] 335K
[Wii] 420K

Orgen · Jul 9, 2010

[360] 296K
[NDS] 467K
[PS3] 181K
[PSP] 89K
[WII] 408K

pitseleh · Jul 9, 2010

[360] 290k
[NDS] 410k
[PS3] 205k
[PSP] 70k
[WII] 320k

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