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(Hardware) June 2010 NPD Predictions - Closes July 11

J

jvm

Gamasutra.
JoshuaJSlone said:
[NDS] 450K
[Wii] 430K
[360] 330K
[PS3] 190K
[PS2] 91K
[PSP] 90K
Click to expand...
Not picking on JJS here, but rather realizing that I hadn't mentioned this. Judging from Frazier's comments (and comparing with those made by Michael Pachter, just to make sure I wasn't misreading Frazier), I think PS2 sales in May 2010 were around 30-40K.

The relevant statement, as I recall from when I was preparing my article, was "Console hardware unit sales are, in fact, flat to last year." That can't be true unless PS2 was in the range 30-40K, I believe, but I know someone here will probably check my math.

Which is all to say 91K PS2 in June sounds very unlikely to me. More like 50-60K, at best?
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
Interesting. Without previous months to start with and adjust up/down I've mostly started using my PS2 guess as a way to pick on PSP even more.

If accurate that would mean PS2 has been all over the place and back this year.
January: 42K
Februray: 102K
March: 118K
April: ?
May: 30-60K
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
[NDS] 520K
[WII] 450K
[360] 300K
[PS3] 250K
[PSP] 93K

I was tempted to do the 500-400-300-200-100 this month.
 
D

donny2112

Member
65 entrants this month. Not the lowest I've seen in an NPD monthly prediction thread by any means, but this is tied for the lowest since the we started tracking yearly results with points. January 2007 (the first month that we retroactively applied the point system to) also had 65.

NeoGAF Predictions - June 2010

GAF_Agg

1. NDS - 433K
2. WII - 368K
3. 360 - 318K
4. PS3 - 195K
5. PSP - 77K

GAF_spec

1. NDS - 457K
2. WII - 383K
3. 360 - 337K
4. PS3 - 200K
5. PSP - 79K
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Will fill in as figures come in...
Code: 
           GAF_Agg    GAF_spec    WEDBUSH   EEDAR
1. NDS      433K        457K       450K      435K
2. WII      368K        383K       400K      375K
3. 360      318K        337K       325K      350K
4. PS3      195K        200K       195K      185K
5. PSP       77K         79K        85K       75K
6. PS2       --K         --K        40K       --K
 
D

donny2112

Member
Dedication Through Light said:
Whats Gaf_spec?
Click to expand...

It's a subset of GAF_Agg made up of the Top 20 finishers in 2009.

Dedication Through Light said:
I lol cant see DS that high
Click to expand...

If DS was flat with how it sold in May, it would be at 480K in June. Both groups are predicting a drop for DS. The difference is in the degree.
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
The last lol time DS sold less than 700K lol was 2007. The last time DS lol sold less than 500K was 2005 lol. That month it lol and GBA sold a com-lol-bined 400K.
 
D

donny2112

Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
The last time DS lol sold less than 500K was 2005
Click to expand...

Which was the June before DSLite. This'll be the DS's last hurrah in the U.S. with 3DS coming next year. It'll probably still sell > 2m in December, though. :lol
 
J

JardeL

Member
TheKevinButler said:
Dear interns, please close my office door when you’re done bringing my sales reports. I don’t want any awesomeness to leak out. about 1 hour ago via TweetDeck
Click to expand...
Surprise incoming ?
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
JardeL said:
Surprise incoming ?
Click to expand...
Saw that, wondered the same thing.

Previously, companies like Sony, Nintendo, Microsoft got the data on Wednesday, ahead of when we get the media release on Thursday. It's possible that the new system at NPD has moved this up -- to Monday -- but, I don't know for sure.

Or it could just be that Sony's own internal tracking shows some strong sales. Apparently supply finally came in for Sony during the beginning of June, so...
 
Jonsoncao

Jonsoncao

Banned
Dedication Through Light said:
Whats Gaf_spec? I dont want to look foolish, but I lol cant see DS that high
Click to expand...

With no additional info, the most logical and statistically confident guess would be May's data*(5/4) approx. = 479.6k

also adding a white noise to this mean value could give you a nice confidence interval
 
M

Mad_Ban

Member
Feels weird having NPD reports come out so close together. :eek:

Will be interesting to see how/if the 360 price and slim cut spurred sales.
 
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