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donny2112 · Aug 2, 2010

We're predicting for five games that will hopefully either be in the Top 5 for the month or at least get numbers for.

Games/Format:

[360 Red Dead Redemption]
[NDS Dragon Quest IX]
[PC Starcraft II]
[WII NSMB Wii]
[WII Super Mario Galaxy 2]

[Total SW $ in millions]

Note:
Starcraft II won't be in the Top 5 that numbers are released for, but we'll probably hear something about how it sold.

Code:

Good                                 Bad
[360 Red Dead Redemption] 300K       [360 Red Dead Redemption] 300 thousand
[360 Red Dead Redemption] 300,000    [360 Red Dead Redemption] 300.000
[360 Red Dead Redemption] 300000     [360 Red Dead Redemption] - 300,000

The Hardware Prediction thread is here.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EDT on Sunday, August 8th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: July 4-31 (4 weeks, June was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: August 12th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Code:

                               May 2010  Jun 2010

[360 Red Dead Redemption]          946K      583K
[WII Super Mario Galaxy 2]         564K      548K
[WII NSMB Wii]                     183K      201K

[Total SW $ in millions]            466       531

Number of days available for new releases:
NDS Dragon Quest IX - 21 days
PC Starcraft II - 5 days

hxa155 · Aug 2, 2010

[360 Red Dead Redemption] 300k
[NDS Dragon Quest IX] 100k
[PC Starcraft II] 700k
[WII NSMB Wii] 250k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy 2] 400k

[Total SW $ in millions] 450

Dedication Through Light · Aug 2, 2010

Well,

[360 Red Dead Redemption] 310K
[NDS Dragon Quest IX] 134K
[PC Starcraft II] 1200K ( 1.2Mln)
[WII NSMB Wii] 200K
[WII Super Mario Galaxy 2] 350K

[Total SW $ in millions] 492

Pooya · Aug 2, 2010

[360 Red Dead Redemption] 285K
[NDS Dragon Quest IX] 95K
[PC Starcraft II] 800K
[WII NSMB Wii] 180K
[WII Super Mario Galaxy 2] 300K

[Total SW $ in millions] 450

andy_lhc · Aug 2, 2010

[360 Red Dead Redemption] 275K
[NDS Dragon Quest IX] 90K
[PC Starcraft II] 1500K
[WII NSMB Wii] 185K
[WII Super Mario Galaxy 2] 480K

[Total SW $ in millions] 490

courage201 · Aug 2, 2010

[360 Red Dead Redemption] 250k
[NDS Dragon Quest IX] 150k
[PC Starcraft II] 850k
[WII NSMB Wii] 150k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy 2] 300k

[Total SW $ in millions] 400

WaltJay · Aug 2, 2010

[360 Red Dead Redemption] 300K
[NDS Dragon Quest IX] 160K
[PC Starcraft II] 1100k
[WII NSMB Wii] 245K
[WII Super Mario Galaxy 2] 290K

[Total SW $ in millions] 501

donny2112 · Aug 2, 2010

It's worth noting that Dragon Quest VIII (Free with a purchase of FFXII demo!) is the best-selling DQ in the U.S., and it opened up with < 100K in November (i.e. big month) 2005. Leaks for DQIV on DS put its launch month < 50K. DQIX is obviously in a somewhat different situation (lessened SE tax, push by Nintendo), though.

Just wanted to point that out.

Bentendo · Aug 2, 2010

I'm surprised people are expecting Dragon Quest IX to be over 100,000.

seady · Aug 2, 2010

[360 Red Dead Redemption] 320K
[NDS Dragon Quest IX] 150K
[PC Starcraft II] 1200K
[WII NSMB Wii] 200K
[WII Super Mario Galaxy 2] 340K

[Total SW $ in millions] 500

donny2112 · Aug 3, 2010

StarCraft II sells 1.5m copies in first 48 hours. That is worldwide, though, and probably includes digital sales. Probably means > 2m for the first 5 days, but how much from retail in the U.S.?

Curufinwe · Aug 3, 2010

donny2112 said:
Note:
Starcraft II won't be in the Top 5 that numbers are released for, but we'll probably hear something about how it sold.

How come?

Blast Processing · Aug 3, 2010

[360 Red Dead Redemption] 300K
[NDS Dragon Quest IX] 100K
[PC Starcraft II] 500K
[WII NSMB Wii] 200K
[WII Super Mario Galaxy 2] 380K

[Total SW $ in millions] 445K

donny2112 · Aug 6, 2010

[360 Red Dead Redemption] 275K
[NDS Dragon Quest IX] 165K
[PC Starcraft II] 800K
[WII NSMB Wii] 150K
[WII Super Mario Galaxy 2] 300K

[Total SW $ in millions] 385

Curufinwe said:
How come?

PC sales are a different subscription, but I expect it to be big news for the month and still be reported somewhere.

TheFLYINGManga_Ka · Aug 6, 2010

I don't know why but I'm interested to see how much Arc Rise Fantasia sold.

I enjoy the game but when I see the results, I'm sure it'll be disappointing...if there's a number at all!

timetokill · Aug 7, 2010

[360 Red Dead Redemption] 240k
[NDS Dragon Quest IX] 175k
[PC Starcraft II] 1200k
[WII NSMB Wii] 160k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy 2] 284k

[Total SW $ in millions] 401

donny2112 said:
It's worth noting that Dragon Quest VIII (Free with a purchase of FFXII demo!) is the best-selling DQ in the U.S., and it opened up with < 100K in November (i.e. big month) 2005. Leaks for DQIV on DS put its launch month < 50K. DQIX is obviously in a somewhat different situation (lessened SE tax, push by Nintendo), though.

Just wanted to point that out.

Indeed. I think if it sells over 150k then it would be pretty incredible. I'm really curious to see how it sold, to see if Nintendo could persuade perhaps some of the Pokemon players to give it a shot. I'm being a little optimistic on it due to the marketing push and the fact that there's not much else out there. We'll see.

Road · Aug 8, 2010

[360 Red Dead Redemption] 199k
[NDS Dragon Quest IX] 144k
[PC Starcraft II] 777k
[WII NSMB Wii] 166k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy 2] 333k

[Total SW $ in millions] 400

rostocker · Aug 8, 2010

[360 Red Dead Redemption] 290k
[NDS Dragon Quest IX] 132k
[PC Starcraft II] 699k
[WII NSMB Wii] 171k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy 2] 370k

[Total SW $ in millions] 420

[Crackdown 2] 270k

starship · Aug 8, 2010

[360 Red Dead Redemption] 200k
[NDS Dragon Quest IX] 250k
[PC Starcraft II] 600k
[WII NSMB Wii] 200k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy 2] 340k

[Total SW $ in millions] 450

Brakara · Aug 8, 2010

[360 Red Dead Redemption] 260k
[NDS Dragon Quest IX] 225k
[PC Starcraft II] 900k
[WII NSMB Wii] 175k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy 2] 260k

[Total SW $ in millions] 390

boontje · Aug 8, 2010

[360 Red Dead Redemption] 280k
[NDS Dragon Quest IX] 125k
[PC Starcraft II] 800k
[WII NSMB Wii] 200k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy 2] 375k

[Total SW $ in millions] 400

botticus · Aug 8, 2010

[360 Red Dead Redemption] 300k
[NDS Dragon Quest IX] 150k
[PC Starcraft II] 750k
[WII NSMB Wii] 150k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy 2] 400k

[Total SW $ in millions] 450

Road · Aug 12, 2010

Hmm..

Major failure on our part for not remembering NCAA... haha

NCAA FOOTBALL 11 360 ELECTRONIC ARTS Jul-10 368.0K
NCAA FOOTBALL 11 PS3 ELECTRONIC ARTS Jul-10 298.8K
CRACKDOWN 2 360 MICROSOFT Jul-10 208.8K
SUPER MARIO GALAXY 2 WII NINTENDO May-10 193.0K
LEGO HARRY POTTER: YEARS 1-4 NDS WARNER BROS. INTERACTIVE Jun-10 141.7K

andy_lhc · Aug 13, 2010

Road said:
Hmm..

Major failure on our part for not remembering NCAA... haha

NCAA FOOTBALL 11 360 ELECTRONIC ARTS Jul-10 368.0K
NCAA FOOTBALL 11 PS3 ELECTRONIC ARTS Jul-10 298.8K
CRACKDOWN 2 360 MICROSOFT Jul-10 208.8K
SUPER MARIO GALAXY 2 WII NINTENDO May-10 193.0K
LEGO HARRY POTTER: YEARS 1-4 NDS WARNER BROS. INTERACTIVE Jun-10 141.7K

:lol the Top 2 best selling games are not even in our list....:lol

Celine · Aug 13, 2010

DRagon Quest IX is in 8th place yay!

donny2112 · Sep 7, 2010

Road said:
Major failure on our part for not remembering NCAA... haha

Yep. Oops. :lol

Here's the results without RDR with each game counting for 25 instead of the normal 20.

July 2010 NPD Software Prediction Results

Code:

     July 2010                   Last 3 Months                Overall 2010
1.   courage201         83.96    rostocker           210.27   boontje             554.72
2.   Road               80.23    donny2112           204.41   rostocker           508.92
3.   rostocker          77.91    boontje             203.89   Road                494.8
4.   botticus           76.29    botticus            198.92   donny2112           489.62
5.   miladesn           76.24    GAF Average         189.25   andy_lhc            483.9
6.   donny2112          72.85    timetokill          187.09   GAF Average         475.85
7.   GAF Average        70.13    miladesn            178.19   timetokill          459.46
8.   boontje            68.3     WaltJay             171.56   user_nat            445.85
9.   timetokill         67.21    andy_lhc            166.14   Brakara             431.93
10.  Brakara            58.32    hxa155              164.32   botticus            419.64
11.  Blast Processing   57.99    Road                160      WaltJay             407.92
12.  hxa155             54.38    Brakara             153.3    starship            404.33
13.  starship           50.35    seady               151.14   seady               373.72
14.  Dedication Through 48.61    starship            128.94   Hammer24            352.08
15.  seady              46.88    user_nat            127.5    Jesse2040           349.62
16.  WaltJay            46.14    Dedication Through L 97.01   apujanata           318.68
17.  andy_lhc           30.91    courage201           83.96   Garjon              308.99
18.                              Garjon               75.6    hxa155              301.73
19.                              thestopsign          74.29   RBH                 288.2
20.                              apujanata            74.14   miladesn            286.39

Congratulations (if a little late), courage201!

andy_lhc · Sep 7, 2010

Good god!!! From 1st to last..........:lol

Road · Sep 11, 2010

From Famitsu, July, 2010:

01 [360] NCAA Football 11 (Electronic Arts) - 368.0k
02 [PS3] NCAA Football 11 (Electronic Arts) - 298.8k
03 [360] Crackdown 2 (Microsoft) - 208.8k
04 [WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Nintendo) - 193.0k
05 [DS] LEGO Harry Potter: Years 1-4 (Warner Bros Interactive) - 141.7k
06 [360] Red Dead Redemption (Take 2) - 141k
07 [WII] LEGO Harry Potter: Years 1-4 (Warner Bros Interactive) - 133k
08 [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Starry Skies (Nintendo) - 132k
09 [WII] New Super Mario Bros (Nintendo) - 129k
10 [360] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Activision Blizzard) - 127k

I don't have the magazine, so we'll just have to trust 2ch for now. =P

cooljeanius · Sep 11, 2010

Road said:
From Famitsu, July, 2010:

01 [360] NCAA Football 11 (Electronic Arts) - 368.0k
02 [PS3] NCAA Football 11 (Electronic Arts) - 298.8k
03 [360] Crackdown 2 (Microsoft) - 208.8k
04 [WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Nintendo) - 193.0k
05 [DS] LEGO Harry Potter: Years 1-4 (Warner Bros Interactive) - 141.7k
06 [360] Red Dead Redemption (Take 2) - 141k
07 [WII] LEGO Harry Potter: Years 1-4 (Warner Bros Interactive) - 133k
08 [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Starry Skies (Nintendo) - 132k
09 [WII] New Super Mario Bros (Nintendo) - 129k
10 [360] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Activision Blizzard) - 127k

I don't have the magazine, so we'll just have to trust 2ch for now. =P

Since when does Famitsu track US sales?

Road · Sep 11, 2010

cooljeanius said:
Since when does Famitsu track US sales?

They don't. They (Enterbrain) have a deal with NPD.

Don't tell NPD about it. hahaha

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