For those who are unaware, "active userbase" is a concept referring not to the total number of people who own a console, but the number who own it and are actively buying games for it. The PS2, for example, sells far less software than the PS3 does, despite having almost 4x the userbase, because that userbase is no longer very active. In turn, the Wii has had a steeply declining active user base, as original owners get bored of the system and move on to other entertainment options.
I would like to propose that this will also happen for the PS3 and 360. I think it likely would have happened already, but developers are doing an excellent job of keeping these bodies floating longer than is typical by simply pumping so much money and development talent at them. Eventually, however, people will become bored of the PS3 and 360, and move on to other options: perhaps new game platforms (PC, 3DS, iOS, new Nintendo system, Facebook), or to new hobbies altogether while they wait for something interesting to catch their interest in gaming again.
First, I'd like to discuss whether people think this will actually occur, or if we think that interest in PS3 and 360 gaming can be sustained indefinitely. I'd argue that's extremely implausible -- you're essentially arguing that people will never get bored of PS3/360 games -- but the point of this thread is to broker discussion, so if someone has a good counter argument for a powerful historical trend, I'm willing to listen.
Second -- and this is the heart of the discussion -- if/when this does happen, what will third parties do? They can't be happy about a new generation, as that will increase costs again significantly. At the same time, you can't stay in this generation if revenues are beginning to decline in a high cost industry.
I think we'll begin to see the tip of this problem in late 2011 / early 2012, when PS3/360 stop showing YoY growth in software (although this date, too, is completely open to discussion). It seems like a very significant problem that I've seen very few people talk about, perhaps because the problem seems so inevitable and so unsolvable that nobody wants to think about it. Or perhaps I'm overlooking something obvious and important.
Discuss!
I would like to propose that this will also happen for the PS3 and 360. I think it likely would have happened already, but developers are doing an excellent job of keeping these bodies floating longer than is typical by simply pumping so much money and development talent at them. Eventually, however, people will become bored of the PS3 and 360, and move on to other options: perhaps new game platforms (PC, 3DS, iOS, new Nintendo system, Facebook), or to new hobbies altogether while they wait for something interesting to catch their interest in gaming again.
First, I'd like to discuss whether people think this will actually occur, or if we think that interest in PS3 and 360 gaming can be sustained indefinitely. I'd argue that's extremely implausible -- you're essentially arguing that people will never get bored of PS3/360 games -- but the point of this thread is to broker discussion, so if someone has a good counter argument for a powerful historical trend, I'm willing to listen.
Second -- and this is the heart of the discussion -- if/when this does happen, what will third parties do? They can't be happy about a new generation, as that will increase costs again significantly. At the same time, you can't stay in this generation if revenues are beginning to decline in a high cost industry.
I think we'll begin to see the tip of this problem in late 2011 / early 2012, when PS3/360 stop showing YoY growth in software (although this date, too, is completely open to discussion). It seems like a very significant problem that I've seen very few people talk about, perhaps because the problem seems so inevitable and so unsolvable that nobody wants to think about it. Or perhaps I'm overlooking something obvious and important.
Discuss!
