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Xbox 3 Rumor: Dev Kit Silicon In Prod, IBM CPU/HD 7000 Series GPU, 2013 Release

McHuj

Member
http://semiaccurate.com/2012/01/18/xbox-nextxbox-720-chips-in-production/

some quotes from the aricle:

Now for the new stuff. The XBox Next/720 Oban chip is in initial production. Sources at a foundry with a blue logo, confirm that Oban wafers started running in the final days of 2011. Sources on the other side of the continent in Redmond when questioned, said, “Who the f*&$ told you that? I am going to f#*&ing rip someone’s head off”. We at SemiAccurate take this as confirmation that the initial sources were in the right ballpark.

Other sources at Microsoft, conveniently out of head-ripping-off range, said that the initial order was for around 10K wafers, mostly at the aforementioned three letter logo’d company, but a sizeable chunk is being run at Global Foundries too. Again, coincidence? We doubt it.

So, time for a little speculation. Oban is being made by IBM primarily, so that almost definitively puts to bed the idea of an x86 CPU that has been floating. We said we were 99+% sure that the XBox Next/720 is a Power PC CPU plus an ATI GCN/HD7000/Southern Islands GPU, and with this last data point, we are now confident that it is 99.9+%. Why? Several licensing agreements that cover what can be made where will enrich a fleet of lawyers if Oban is x86, but do not preclude the possibility entirely, hence the last .1%.
If you assume the chip is an SoC, and is made on 300mm 32nm SOI wafers, you can come up with a bunch of interesting numbers. Yield on these parts should be pretty high, it is for AMD’s Bulldozer, and those chips run at a much higher speeds on the same process as Oban. If the chip is huge, basically reticle sized at 550-600mm^2, you can expect to get about 100 die candidates per wafer.

With 10K wafers, 100 candidates per, and lowballing yields at 20%, you are looking way way more chips than initially necessary for dev kits. Before you jump up and down about the chances of an XBox 720 under the summer “School’s Out Tree”, these chips are NOT destined for production consoles. You will not get one unless you are in line for a dev kit, or know someone at Microsoft with a penchant for handing out top secret keychains.

Sources are still saying to expect silicon production for retail consoles to start late this year, and that guidance won’t change until the first round of volume parts is analyzed late in the quarter. Production for end user consoles isn’t going to start until late 2012, so don’t expect the XBox Next/720 before spring 2013. One thing you can say for sure now is that the console is real now, and the momentum is really picking up.
 
Sources on the other side of the continent in Redmond when questioned, said, “Who the f*&$ told you that? I am going to f#*&ing rip someone’s head off”

Really? This is a valid source?

In be4 "semiaccurate" jokes.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Semiaccurate kind of lives up to its name.

They're usually right (to some extent), but have such a ridiculous slant on their articles that you have to only go for things that sound factual.
 

McHuj

Member
if they're just starting now then that doesn't bode well for a release in 2013, especially with yields as low as 20%.

He's speculating low yields just to be safe and approximate usable dies from the initial run. No way would the console chip be that big >= 550 mm.
 

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
If the HD7000 is a good place to start with graphics, how good are we talking? I'm going to finally build a new PC in a few months and I've been out of the loop with benchmarking things.
 

wwm0nkey

Member
Well, if they make a 4th console afterwards, what would be bigger than Infinity?

I know it would cause a lot of Toy Story jokes but Beyond would be a good name for the 4th generation of Xbox console.

Infinity has a lot of marketing potential on its name alone and so does Beyond since you can just say Xbox Beyond, Beyond Infinity.

Much better than Loop or that 720 shit.
 
If the HD7000 is a good place to start with graphics, how good are we talking? I'm going to finally build a new PC in a few months and I've been out of the loop with benchmarking things.

It's just the 7000 series, not any one card is mentioned. The range of performance is large so any speculation on graphical prowess is purely speculation. This whole thing is based on rumors too.
 

charsace

Member
If the HD7000 is a good place to start with graphics, how good are we talking? I'm going to finally build a new PC in a few months and I've been out of the loop with benchmarking things.

I've said it a bunch of times in a bunch of different threads. There's no way that the next xbox doesn't have a DX11 GPU. I still think the GPU will be DX11 compliant with some features that MS will look into putting in future DX versions.
 

wsippel

Banned
Maybe Semiaccurate saw this press release from a week ago and jumped to conclusions:

First products from Fab 8 developed and manufactured in New York's ‘Tech Valley'

Saratoga County, N.Y., Jan. 10, 2012 - GLOBALFOUNDRIES and IBM (NYSE: IBM) today announced an agreement to jointly manufacture advanced computer chips at both companies' semiconductor fabs in New York's "Tech Valley." The new products recently began initial production at IBM's 300mm fab in East Fishkill and GLOBALFOUNDRIES' Fab 8 in Saratoga County, and are planned to ramp to volume production in the second half of 2012. The chips are the first silicon produced at GLOBALFOUNDRIES' newest and most advanced manufacturing facility.

The chips are based on IBM's 32nm, Silicon-on-Insulator (SOI) technology, which was jointly developed with GLOBALFOUNDRIES and other members of IBM's Process Development Alliance with early research at the University at Albany's College of Nanoscale Science and Engineering. The technology vastly improves microprocessor performance in multi-core designs and speeds the movement of graphics in gaming, networking, and other image intensive, multi-media applications. The SOI process was used to build the microprocessor that powered IBM Watson, the question-answering computer that won the Jeopardy! quiz show in early 2011.

"IBM has helped make New York State one of the world's premier locations for semiconductor design and manufacturing," said Michael Cadigan, general manager, IBM Microelectronics. "Recently, we announced that we would spend $3.6 billion researching and developing new silicon technology in New York. We bring the skills, investments and partnerships that keep New York at the forefront of advanced silicon development and manufacturing."

"Today's announcement is a natural extension of our longstanding partnership with IBM that includes production of 65nm and 45nm chips at our fabs in Singapore and Germany," said GLOBALFOUNDRIES CEO Ajit Manocha. "With the addition of our newest factory in New York, we will now be jointly producing chips with IBM at four fabs on three continents."
 

McHuj

Member
Two things I'd like to add, if the speculation on the time line in this article is correct, one hardware Dev kits will be out around GDC and we should get a flood of rumors and hopefully specs.

Two, if developers are getting dev kits with hardware this march but the console isn't launching for another year or more, I'd expect a pretty strong launch window for software. That would probably give devs 12-18 months with the hardware (obviously not final form, but close) before launch.
 

RoboPlato

I'd be in the dick
Sounds in line with what I was expecting. I'm really curious as to how close the Xbox 3 and PS4 are going to be in specs. It seems like both IBM and AMD will be doing the CPUs and GPUs for both. How likely is it that the specs for those will be very similar? It'll be an interesting gen if the only real differences are RAM and disk drive speeds. That would be nice for multiplatform development.
 

charsace

Member
It's just the 7000 series, not any one card is mentioned. The range of performance is large so any speculation on graphical prowess is purely speculation. This whole thing is based on rumors too.
The dev kit card for the alpha 360 dev kits was the X800, the best card they could get at the time. I wouldn't be surprised if the next xbox's final graphics card is on the level of a midrange 8000 AMD card.
 

Zzoram

Member
It's just the 7000 series, not any one card is mentioned. The range of performance is large so any speculation on graphical prowess is purely speculation. This whole thing is based on rumors too.

Well it's not going to be a 7970, that's too big and hot.

Maybe a 7750 or something level GPU is what they're using, that's reasonable.
 

DieH@rd

Banned
So, customized 77xx or 78xx in x720 SoC. That sounds fine, it will produce crapton times more power than x360 gpu.
 

Derrick01

Banned
CPU/HD 7000 Series GPU... how much more powerful is that compared to this gen?

That's like top of the line 2012 PC stuff. Being able to play BF3 and Witcher 2 the way they were meant to be played with most if not all of the graphical extras turned on.

So..grossly more powerful than a 360.
 

DieH@rd

Banned
Well it's not going to be a 7970, that's too big and hot.

Maybe a 7750 or something level GPU is what they're using, that's reasonable.

Well, according to charlie this SoC is taped @ 32nm, so 7750 will be perfect for that power envelope. At 28nm it requires ~70W, at 32nm it will go higher.
 

[Nintex]

Member
Maybe Semiaccurate saw this press release from a week ago and jumped to conclusions:

This rumor hit the web about a week before IBM/GF announced their plans:
http://www.industrygamers.com/news/game-developer-expecting-xbox-720-andor-ps4-for-christmas-2012/

Follow the chips is a rule of thumb here. AMD's HD7000 slides also had some remarks about features that the chipset has that they were expecting to become big with next-gen engines. Spring 2013 they say? I'm still betting on a fall 2012 launch with PGR5. Now the big question is if IBM/AMD sold Nintendo pretty much the same chip...
 

wwm0nkey

Member
sounds about right.

tease at this year's e3. it's happening. Sony is going to look like shit.

I am betting at this years E3 the press conference will end with them saying. "Check back next year for the next generation in gaming" and then a short teaser image/video pops up.
 

artist

Banned
alindndx51dec18.jpg

This is a ....................................................................................................................... PC
 

wwm0nkey

Member
I would take any one of those names. Actually Loop sounds weak.

Well Loop is apparently the code name and Microsoft has a big "8" theme going on this and next year with Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8. Why not just turn the 8 on its side and put the Xbox name on it too? :)
 

KageMaru

Member
I don't get it, a few months ago we get a rumor that MS held a gathering at Disney Land after E3 to get feedback from the developers, and now they already have the final hardware in production and plan to wait almost 2 years before launching?

Something doesn't sound right about any of this. Maybe they are producing early dev kits for developers?
 

McHuj

Member
No old rumor mentions either GlobalFoundries or 32nm SoI, which is exactly what Fab 8 is all about.

What I found interesting in the Fab 8 press release was this line as well:

The new chips also will feature IBM’s eDRAM (embedded dynamic random access memory) technology, which dramatically improves on-processor memory performance in about one-third the space with one-fifth the standby power of conventional SRAM (static random access memory).

Granted that could be related to any upcoming, modern chip from IBM, but I found the mention interesting. Maybe it's nothing.

I guess the other thing being produced at Fab8 could also be a 32nm shrink of the current Xbox XCGPU. The shrink would reduce the cost of the chip as it would be really tiny now and lower the power consumption. I bet MS could then hit a $99 price point this holiday.
 

StevieP

Banned
So I take it that 7000 series is a beast of a GPU?

It could be anything, both weak or powerful depending on the power envelope MS is choosing. As little as a 7300-series, which would be ludicrous or as high as a 77/7800 series equivalent PC card.


IMO a 7750-level GPU would be a best case scenario at 32nm.

Granted that could be related to any upcoming, modern chip from IBM, but I found the mention interesting. Maybe it's nothing.
Doesn't that sound suspiciously similar to their press release for the Wii U CPU? Interesting indeed.
 

subversus

I've done nothing with my life except eat and fap
What about this rumour from OPM. Is Sony's console going to be more powerful? 9xxx series? Or may be Sony will go third party as this woman from Gaikai predicted.

I'M CONFUSED SO MANY RUMOURS.
 

StevieP

Banned
What about this rumour from OPM. Is Sony's console going to be more powerful? 9xxx series? Or may be Sony will go third party as this woman from Gaikai predicted.

I'M CONFUSED SO MANY RUMOURS.

Sony's console is *probably* going to be more powerful simply by the fact that it will be out at a later date, granting more time for die-shrinks and other similar things.
 
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