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February 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 10th

donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, March 10th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: February 2-March 1, 2014 (4 weeks, January was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, March 13th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:
Note: PS3 and WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. They are not included for point results.

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[PS4] 300K       [PS4] 300 thousand
[PS4] 300,000    [PS4] 300.000
[PS4] 300000     [PS4] - 300000


Potential hardware impacting events in February:
PS4 supply

January's Results - thanks to Aquamarine and various angles
Complete spectrum of NPD hardware sales estimates:

PS4: 271K
XB1: 141K
3DS: ~97K
PS3: ~53.5K
Wii U: 49K
360: ~48.5K

January 2013 NPD thread (was 5 weeks)
February 2013 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 

gtj1092

Member
Think xone will have a good showing. First time since launch my walmart has been sold out. Granted its only six units but they lasted awhile.
 
The Wonderful World of Nintendo USA Physical Retail

Early Spring 2014 Edition



Sunday, January 5th, 2014
January NPD period begins:



Nintendo Wii U:

Friday, January 10th, 2014
XiwnDSl.png
YuNXsNa.png

Developer: Nintendo EAD No. 5 + GANBARION Co., Ltd.
Publisher: Nintendo of America, Inc.
Copyright: © 2007-2013 Nintendo.
Retail code: WUP Q ASTE USZ (with Fit Meter)
Retail code: WUP R ASTE USZ (with Balance Board and Fit Meter)
MSRP: $49.99 (with Fit Meter)
MSRP: $89.99 (with Balance Board and Fit Meter)
+ Also sold on the Nintendo eShop


Nintendo 3DS:

NO RETAIL RELEASES





Sunday, February 2nd, 2014
February NPD period begins:



Nintendo Wii U:

Friday, February 7th, 2014
UFbpRLO.png

Developer: TT Fusion
Publisher: Warner Bros. Interactive Entertaiment, Inc.
Copyright: © 2014 TT Games Publishing Ltd., under license from the LEGO Group.
Retail code: WUP P ALAE USZ
MSRP: $49.99
+ Also sold on the Nintendo eShop

Friday, February 21st, 2014
DeiLQF6.png

Developer: Retro Studios + Monster Games, Inc. + Nintendo SPD
Publisher: Nintendo of America, Inc.
Copyright: © 2014 Nintendo.
Retail code: WUP P ARKE USZ
MSRP: $49.99
+ Also sold on the Nintendo eShop

Nintendo 3DS:

Friday, February 7th, 2014
tUphK65.png

Developer: Silicon Studio Co., Ltd. + Square Enix
Publisher: Nintendo of America, Inc.
Copyright: © 2012-2014 SQUARE ENIX CO., LTD. All rights reserved.
Retail code: CTR P BTRE USA (normal)
Retail code: CTR R BTR1 USA (Collector's Edition)
MSRP: $39.99 (normal)
MSRP: $49.99 (Collector's Edition) (Out of print)
+ Also sold on the Nintendo eShop

Friday, February 7th, 2014
ZE3zj8X.png

Developer: TT Fusion
Publisher: Warner Bros. Interactive Entertaiment, Inc.
Copyright: © 2014 TT Games Publishing Ltd., a subsidiary of Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment, Inc. Produced by TT Games under license from the LEGO Group.
Retail code: CTR P AFJE USA
MSRP: $29.99
+ Also sold on the Nintendo eShop

Tuesday, February 11th, 2014
lcXptJk.png

Developer: Three Rings
Publisher: Namco Bandai Games America, Inc.
Copyright: © 2012-2013 NAMCO BANDAI Games Inc.
Retail code: CTR P BRDZ USA
MSRP: $39.99
+ Also sold on the Nintendo eShop

Friday, February 28th, 2014
ZkPb0N2.png

Developer: Level-5
Publisher: Nintendo of America, Inc.
Copyright: © 2013 LEVEL-5 Inc.
Retail code: CTR P AKKE USA
MSRP: $39.99
+ Also sold on the Nintendo eShop


Sunday, March 2nd, 2014
March NPD period begins:


Upcoming Retail Releases in March:

7KXavGw.jpg

Yoshi's New Island - March 14th, 2014 (Nintendo)

0pWHoZA.jpg

Hello Kitty Kruizers - March 18th, 2014 (Bergsala Lightweight)

3zZRUZk.jpg

Madagascar 3 & The Croods: Prehistoric Party: Combo Pack - March 18th, 2014 (D3 Publisher)

4MEC1R7.jpg

Cut the Rope: Triple Threat - March 25th, 2014 (Activision)



Nintendo of America

Keeping the USA Retail Dream Alive since 1980
 
[PS4] 213K
[XB1] 126K
[3DS] 131K
[WIU] 69K
[360] 68K
[PS3] 67K

February usually has a little bit of an uptick from January. Although, I'm probably being too optimistic again. It will be interesting to see whether the PS3 > Wii U > 360 ordering continues to hold, or whether January was an anomaly. I imagine the 360 is more saturated than the 360 in the US market having been at a lower entry price point for longer.
 
Serious question, and maybe this is the wrong thread, but how is it that Vita numbers are guarded tighter than Fort Knox? I was surprised to see we don't even include it in the prediction thread. I mean, I know the numbers are bad but the same goes for Wii U and we still get those numbers.
 

mrjohill

Member
Serious question, and maybe this is the wrong thread, but how is it that Vita numbers are guarded tighter than Fort Knox? I was surprised to see we don't even include it in the prediction thread. I mean, I know the numbers are bad but the same goes for Wii U and we still get those numbers.

Cause they aren't great
 

AniHawk

Member
[360] 41k
[3DS] 88k
[PS3] 43k
[PS4] 250k
[WIU] 40k
[XB1] 90k

i'm running on the theory that no one can buy ps4s and that the industry is doomed.
 

Yoda

Member
PS4: 230K
XB1: 120K
3DS: ~88K
PS3: ~41.5K
Wii U: 41K
360: ~39.5K

Nothing that would push hardware really launched this month. March will be much more interesting.
 
Cause they aren't great

Yes.

Serious question, and maybe this is the wrong thread, but how is it that Vita numbers are guarded tighter than Fort Knox? I was surprised to see we don't even include it in the prediction thread. I mean, I know the numbers are bad but the same goes for Wii U and we still get those numbers.

DS + Wii numbers are also guarded tighter than Fort Knox, and for good reason. We know that January numbers are <17K. Anything below that is essentially too dead to matter for anything.

It's not fun to get consistently dead numbers time and time again...it's just deflating when you get down to it.
 

samar11

Member
So people think PS4 is going to sell Xbox one 2-1 again this month? Isn't titan fall launching soon? I would think the hype would increase Xbox one sells a bit and the PS4 is still hard to find.
 

demigod

Member
So people think PS4 is going to sell Xbox one 2-1 again this month? Isn't titan fall launching soon? I would think the hype would increase Xbox one sells a bit and the PS4 is still hard to find.

Not when you can get the titanfall bundle for the same price. If anything, people would be returning the system until they can get that bundle.
 

LOCK

Member
February should be up over January.

I think the Wii U will continue it's weekly average and DK should give it at least a few k boast. I wouldn't be surprised if it is up over last year. The 3DS will recover some. The 360 and PS3 should be steady. The X1 is a wild card. The PS4 is based on supply.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
So people think PS4 is going to sell Xbox one 2-1 again this month? Isn't titan fall launching soon? I would think the hype would increase Xbox one sells a bit and the PS4 is still hard to find.

If MS greatly cared about this month's NPD, they should have held off the news of the Titanfall bundle until Friday (last day of February).

I'm pretty sure many people who would have gotten an Xbox One last week held off due to the news. March should definitely be interesting as other people have already said in this thread.
 
So people think PS4 is going to sell Xbox one 2-1 again this month? Isn't titan fall launching soon? I would think the hype would increase Xbox one sells a bit and the PS4 is still hard to find.

Depends on supply really.

Hasnt PS4 supply been worse in February due to the Japanese launch?
 
[360] 42K
[3DS]88K
[PS3] 51K
[PS4] 270K
[WIU]35K
[XB1]123K

theory: customers preordering titanfall package rather than buying X1 this month, and Europe taking the brunt of the Japanese launch stock. For everything else, January was a typical month and not a late shoppers from xmas.
 
February should be up over January.

I think the Wii U will continue it's weekly average and DK should give it at least a few k boast.
I wouldn't be surprised if it is up over last year. The 3DS will recover some. The 360 and PS3 should be steady. The X1 is a wild card. The PS4 is based on supply.

Wii U sales (adjusted)

December 2012:
463K (five weeks)

January 2013:
46K (four week adjusted)

February 2013:
66K (four weeks)


March 2013:
54K (four week adjusted)

April 2013:
37K (four weeks)


----

December 2013:
481K (five weeks)
+18K higher than last year

January 2014:
49K (four weeks)
+3K higher than last year

February 2014:
(66K last year)


Trending along the same line and taking into account market conditions, we should have somewhere between 50K and 80K this time around.
 
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