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May 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 14th

donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Saturday, June 14th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.
Important: I'm assuming that NPD release will be delayed until Monday, June 16 as it was last year when NPD release fell during E3 week. If NPD release is NOT delayed, then the prediction deadline will be moved up to Wednesday, June 11.

Edit:
Looks like it will be delayed until the Monday after E3, so the June 14th closing time would stand. Thanks, jvm! :)

Note: This is a quote from a note sent to me by an analyst for Stifel:

So, yes, release on Monday following E3.

NPD Coverage: May 4-31, 2014 (4 weeks, April was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Monday, June 16th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT) (See IMPORTANT note above)

Format:
Note: PS3 and WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. They are not included for point results.

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[PS4] 300K       [PS4] 300 thousand
[PS4] 300,000    [PS4] 300.000
[PS4] 300000     [PS4] - 300000


Potential hardware impacting events in May:
Microsoft announced XB1 Kinect-less SKU for $400 to be released June 9 - May 13 (19 days)
Watch Dogs (PS4/XB1) - May 27 (5 days)
Mario Kart 8 (Wii U) and MK8 Wii U hardware bundle $330 - May 30 (2 days)

April's Results - thanks to Aquamarine and various angles
[PS4] 199K
[XB1] 115K
[3DS] 106K
[360] 71K
[WIU] 48K
[PS3] 35K

April 2013 NPD thread
May 2013 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
Wow, already that time?

[PS4] 230k
[XB1] 105k
[3DS] 80k
[360] 50k
[WIU] 165k
[PS3] 30k
[PSV] 75k

Wii U will see a Mario Kart bump and the new shipment of Vitas was actually sold out in my area and it sold out pretty fast according to various sales reps I talked to. Anecdotal but it seems for the first time in a long time, demand has surpassed supply for the Vita, supply was probably bad anyway.
 
NPD Coverage: May 4-31, 2014 (4 weeks)


Game Releases


PS4 Releases:

May 6th (26 days of tracking):
516L2BnqX4L._AA160_.jpg


May 9th (23 days of tracking):
51gUnhFMngL._AA160_.jpg


May 20th (12 days of tracking):
51sWvKwAELL._AA160_.jpg


May 27th (5 days of tracking):
51v8zNjSSKL._AA160_.jpg



Xbox One Releases:

May 8th (24 days of tracking):
519irz%2Br0KL._AA160_.jpg


May 20th (12 days of tracking):
51UTbVK8L5L._AA160_.jpg


May 27th (5 days of tracking):
51SgejKXYUL._AA160_.jpg



PS3 Releases:

May 6th (26 days of tracking):
61%2BkMZG1icL._AA160_.jpg


May 9th (23 days of tracking):
51CYPK35bLL._AA160_.jpg


May 16th (16 days of tracking):
51Ggya4sIGL._AA160_.jpg


May 20th (12 days of tracking):
51fvaKDUKwL._AA160_.jpg
51C-nUPaPwL._AA160_.jpg
61eN-BIPBJL._AA160_.jpg
51I15QrpAGL._AA160_.jpg
51pPiMqMt%2BL._AA160_.jpg


May 27th (5 days of tracking):
61K6PxZw76L._AA160_.jpg



360 Releases:

May 9th (23 days of tracking):
51VGt6o1R6L._AA160_.jpg


May 20th (12 days of tracking):
51woRuJR1ML._AA160_.jpg
51pC7LubuzL._AA160_.jpg


May 27th (5 days of tracking):
51xuU%2BLQQGL._AA160_.jpg



Wii U Releases:

May 30th (2 days of tracking):
517MqXtmOIL._AA160_.jpg



3DS Releases:

May 20th (12 days of tracking):
612q-eFUPUL._AA160_.jpg



Vita Releases:

May 6th (26 days of tracking):
51GEdRpY0OL._AA160_.jpg
61n27BoPJBL._AA160_.jpg



May 27th (5 days of tracking):
514-SVnDj1L._AA160_.jpg
51vNPXK22sL._AA160_.jpg
 
[PS4] 240k
[XB1] 75k
[3DS] 100k
[360] 65K
[WIU] 85k
[PS3] 50k

I think Xbox One sales fell off a cliff, after the whole diskinect sku announcement.
PS4 will do a bit better then last month, because of Watchdogs and the exclusive marketing/content.
WiiU gets a nice bump from MK8 hype.
 

SDCowboy

Member
I think the following month is going to be really interesting. That's when we might see if the new price for the X1 will help much.
 
lol people seriously lowered their expectations for xbone this month. then, bam! it outsells everything else.

most peeps still don't know there will be an imminent price drop.
 
[PS4] 200k
[PS3] 47k
[PSV] 30k
[XB1] 85k
[360] 60k
[3DS] 82k
[WIU] 60k


The Vita was so low the last few months

I say 30k is a high bump for it with the new model
 

Squalor

Junior Member
This is interesting.

Most people fall in two camps, Mario Kart 8 boots the Wii U to second place or the game has practically no impact on the system's already-dull sales.
 

The Llama

Member
[PS4] 205k
[XB1] 85k
[3DS] 75k
[360] 65K
[WIU] 70k
[PS3] 40k


I'm thinking the PS4 has stabilized now and isn't really going to be much different than April, except a little higher because of The Show. XB1 definitely below 100k.
 
I'm thinking the PS4 has stabilized now and isn't really going to be much different than April, except a little higher because of The Show. XB1 definitely below 100k.

I'm curious to see what Watch Dogs will do for both consoles. Clearly with the co-marketing with PS4 it will almost assuredly sell better on PS4 but April had no huge releases that I can remember. With Wolfenstein and Watch Dogs out for XB1 I'm curious if I'm being too pessimistic about XB1's performance. It really all depends how well communicated the knowledge of the kinectless XB1 is to the average consumer.

I do think Watch Dogs, the Show, and Wolfenstein will push the PS4 up a bit this month. I'm saying 25% which might be a bit high I suppose. Watch Dogs was super highly pre-ordered on PS4 though :\
 
PS4 hasn't been supply constrained for a while, so I'm guessing it's prob going to stabilize around 200k-ish (maybe a little lower because a bunch of games got delayed). XB1 won't be any good, prob around 100k-ish if not lower due to Kinect-less announcement.
 
[PS4] 195K
[3DS] 98K
[WIU] 91K
[XBO] 77K
[360] 57K
[PS3] 32K

Tough month to guestimate.
Are there any past examples of long-in-advance announced price drops to draw from?
 

donny2112

Member
Going by Aquamarine's post, more PSV releases than Wii U releases...? *shakes head*

There's something to be said in there about quality (of sales) over quantity (of releases), just maybe. Yeah, Wii U is either being given exactly what it can handle (relatively high selling games every ~6 months with nothing in-between) or potential game releases are being left on the table. With the apparent dearth of a homerun Nintendo game in the Fall, I wonder how a 6-month late port of highly acclaimed Watch_Dogs on a starving system at Christmas will do. (probably terrible still, but it's a question :p )
 

Usobuko

Banned
Won't Watch Dogs give both PS4 and Xbox One a boost? although the kinectless news might just take away or make it negligible.
 
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