SDCowboy
Member
Yeah, next month...
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May 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 14th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Yeah, next month...
Gianni Merryman
Member
No, I misread the OP and was assuming it was launching this month, hthat's why my XBOne prediction was that high.
By the way thank you for pointing that out, I am going to edit my post in the light of this misunderstanding of mine.
Comparisons between April (4-week-month) and May (4-week-month) for datas between 2009 and 2013 shows how May hardware sales are usually 86-87% of April hardware sales, with one case of May sales being 90% of April sales. Still, there have been cases of increases from April to May, but probably those have been due to big software releases boosting hardware sales.
Given March sales
PS4: ~199k
XB1: 115k
3DS: >101k (probably 106k)
360: 71k
Wii U: ~49k
PS3: 35k
Wii: ~17-18k
PSV: ~3.3k
Applying this criteria, we have the following base value for May (let's say May = 86.5% April)
PS4: ~ 172,135
XB1: 99,400
3DS: > 87,365 ( probably 91,690)
360: 61,415
Wii U: 42,385
PS3: 30,275
Wii: ~14,705 - 15,570
PSV: ~ 2,854
But this are just the basis values, without special events happening. But May saw several things going on.
Releases: Watch_Dogs, MLB 14 The Show, Wolfenstein: The New Order, Mario Kart 8
Hardware news: One @ $399.99 announced on May 13th, Mario Kart 8 bundle, 2DS @ $99 at Target
New big releases (Watch_Dogs, Mario Kart 8) will help hardware, while price cut / new model at a lower price news will reduce them even further.
Watch_Dogs had a blasting first day, the best Ubisoft ever had. This means also that the PS4 SKU, 99.9% the best selling one, did very well. So, hardware sales should have received a good boost. Still, considering it's just tracked for 5 days, its impact will be spread across two months. MLB 14 could help as well, but I think just a little, especially compared to Watch_Dogs.
This values even more for Mario Kart 8, which is tracked for just 2 days, and has a bundle as well (i.e. possible sales pre-MK8 being shifted to when MK8 is released). Due to the bundle, its impact on Wii U sales could be, number-wise, bigger than WD on PS4, especially considering it's an exclusive, but since it's just 2 days its tracked period, that sounds difficult. Again, its effect will be seen across both May and June.
One will suffer even more this month, since the new model was announced before the middle of the month. It's also possible April numbers were still seeing some boost from Titanfall (not that much, but still), so the base could even be higher than its real value. It's sure that One will suffer, though.
There's also the new Vita model, which seems it's doing well compared to the shipments, and it'll certainly boost Vita sales 10x, at least, compared to April (no stock for two months)...still, it's the Vita.
2DS @ 99.99$ could help 3DS selling on par with last month / near last month, with also Kirby and Mario Golf being tracked not just for 2 days (like in April NPD).
So, through some guesses based also on trends showed by Amazon charts, let's see...
[PS4] 230,000
[3DS] 100,000
[XB1] 72,000
[WIU] 93,000
[360] 65,000
[PS3] 31,000
[PSV] 40,000
Let's see if my method works, this time for all consoles. Last month, through my method, I would have guessed PS4, but not 3DS (even if by a small amount, number-wise), so I want to see how much the combination of math, scientific calculations and (possibly) realistic guess can work.
Given March sales
PS4: ~199k
XB1: 115k
3DS: >101k (probably 106k)
360: 71k
Wii U: ~49k
PS3: 35k
Wii: ~17-18k
PSV: ~3.3k
Applying this criteria, we have the following base value for May (let's say May = 86.5% April)
PS4: ~ 172,135
XB1: 99,400
3DS: > 87,365 ( probably 91,690)
360: 61,415
Wii U: 42,385
PS3: 30,275
Wii: ~14,705 - 15,570
PSV: ~ 2,854
But this are just the basis values, without special events happening. But May saw several things going on.
Releases: Watch_Dogs, MLB 14 The Show, Wolfenstein: The New Order, Mario Kart 8
Hardware news: One @ $399.99 announced on May 13th, Mario Kart 8 bundle, 2DS @ $99 at Target
New big releases (Watch_Dogs, Mario Kart 8) will help hardware, while price cut / new model at a lower price news will reduce them even further.
Watch_Dogs had a blasting first day, the best Ubisoft ever had. This means also that the PS4 SKU, 99.9% the best selling one, did very well. So, hardware sales should have received a good boost. Still, considering it's just tracked for 5 days, its impact will be spread across two months. MLB 14 could help as well, but I think just a little, especially compared to Watch_Dogs.
This values even more for Mario Kart 8, which is tracked for just 2 days, and has a bundle as well (i.e. possible sales pre-MK8 being shifted to when MK8 is released). Due to the bundle, its impact on Wii U sales could be, number-wise, bigger than WD on PS4, especially considering it's an exclusive, but since it's just 2 days its tracked period, that sounds difficult. Again, its effect will be seen across both May and June.
One will suffer even more this month, since the new model was announced before the middle of the month. It's also possible April numbers were still seeing some boost from Titanfall (not that much, but still), so the base could even be higher than its real value. It's sure that One will suffer, though.
There's also the new Vita model, which seems it's doing well compared to the shipments, and it'll certainly boost Vita sales 10x, at least, compared to April (no stock for two months)...still, it's the Vita.
2DS @ 99.99$ could help 3DS selling on par with last month / near last month, with also Kirby and Mario Golf being tracked not just for 2 days (like in April NPD).
So, through some guesses based also on trends showed by Amazon charts, let's see...
[PS4] 230,000
[3DS] 100,000
[XB1] 72,000
[WIU] 93,000
[360] 65,000
[PS3] 31,000
[PSV] 40,000
Let's see if my method works, this time for all consoles. Last month, through my method, I would have guessed PS4, but not 3DS (even if by a small amount, number-wise), so I want to see how much the combination of math, scientific calculations and (possibly) realistic guess can work.
I'm SO ready for when the actual numbers will come, and my forecast numbers will be far from the truth :lol
No need to recheck, it was in the 40s ranks already before the Kinectless SKU was announced. Kinectless SKU is at #271 right now.
SDCowboy
Member
This is going to be a tough month to predict. So many factors. I personally feel that Mario Kart has more "system seller" potential than Watch_Dogs. Watch_Dogs is multiplatform, cross-gen, and a new IP. Mario Kart is exclusive to the Wii U, and is part of a long running popular franchise.
Mario Kart 8 should have a good mix of sales to people who owned a Wii U before Mario Kart 8 released, as well as people who bought a Wii U for the game after the game released. I think Watch_Dogs on the other hand sold mostly to people who already owned the console that they bought the game for. We'll see though.
But anyway, with me feeling that way + me thinking the $400 SKU announcement had an impact on May Xbox One sales, I'll say...
[PS4] 170K
[XB1] 75K
[3DS] 95K
[360] 50K
[WIU] 84K
[PS3] 27K
Mario Kart 8 should have a good mix of sales to people who owned a Wii U before Mario Kart 8 released, as well as people who bought a Wii U for the game after the game released. I think Watch_Dogs on the other hand sold mostly to people who already owned the console that they bought the game for. We'll see though.
But anyway, with me feeling that way + me thinking the $400 SKU announcement had an impact on May Xbox One sales, I'll say...
[PS4] 170K
[XB1] 75K
[3DS] 95K
[360] 50K
[WIU] 84K
[PS3] 27K
I personally feel that the majority of people who wanted The Show and Watch_Dogs already had PS4s before those games released. Some put 300K (or close to it) for PS4 and personally, that (100K+ increase) seems more far fetched to me than the PS4 sales dropping down a little bit in comparison to last month. We'll see though.
Either way this is a pretty hard month to predict.
SDCowboy
Member
That last bit might be even more troubling than the best selling Xbone being on the 3rd page. If the Kinectless Bone doesn't noticeably increases sales for next month, then what?
Actually, I didn't make any preditions on actual numbers. I typically avoid doing so, because my bubble of retail observations aren't universal, so I just speculate on what I see in here. I don't think 300k is realistic, either. It'd be great for Sony if they hit that number, but that still seems really high. I just stated that we've seen the numbers stay either the same or a little better for last month due to those games.
As to the Show, though, you'd be surprised. One of my friends plays no other video games except for the Show. He found out there'd be a version on the PS4 that looked a lot better, and he waited until it came out, bought them together. Obviously that's a specific anecdote, but we do see people buying the system and the Show together (though usually with a few other games, too), as it was the one that pushed them over the purchase barrier.
Watch dogs being cross-gen and multi-plat will surely change how big of an impact it has on hardware sales, but it also is being heavily marketed on the PS4 side. Mind-share creates perception impact.
Edit: Haha, you stealth edited your statement to Some predicted. I'll leave mine as is.
Nothing probably. No point in making major changes with the Fall/Holiday season coming in which sales will inevitably increase.
If there's a huge drop for the system during the beginning of 2015 though then I wouldn't be surprised to see an actual $100 price drop for both models (kinect and non-kinect). After that, I think MS would have to just let things ride out. They couldn't really do anything else. Again though, that's only if the system doesn't do better than its currently doing after the new SKU, multiple new exclusives and multiplats, and just the boost from the Holiday season; I personally think that's almost impossible... Especially for North America (NPD).
Yes, I got your post confused with others. That was my mistake.
It does but the thing with Watch_Dogs is that it was marketed alongside the PS4 for a really long time. The game was going to be a launch title and many people pre-ordered a PS4 mainly for the game. People were disappointed when Watch_Dogs got delayed but many also still kept their PS4 pre-orders or still got one due to the games that were out at launch + the fact that they knew that Watch_Dogs was still going to eventually come out on the PS4.
Heh, that's fine. I knew my mistake shortly after I made the post which is why I changed it fast.
When I picked up my copy of Mario Kart 8 at Best Buy yesterday there was someone in front of me picking up a MK8 Wii U bundle they preordered. Have read several anecdotes from others along the same lines.
Some stores have sold out of the MK8 bundle... my Best Buy is now according to bestbuy.com (I saw they had a couple bundles left on the floor when I was there yesterday).
The regular Wii U consoles seem to be still be available everywhere.
There definitely will be a sales boost, but the question is how big. How many MK8 bundles Nintendo shipped to stores will probably be a big part of that.
It's all good! I figured it wasn't anything malicious, I just have avoided making any concrete number predictions at all... I'm not much of a gambler, I guess.
And while you're right that Watch_Dogs has been marketed as a launch title, it was also delayed before the launch. So there's two sides to that, but I agree that many of the people excited for the game bought the PS4 already, my caveat would be that there were still plenty of people waiting for there to be enough games they wanted, i.e. Watch_Dogs etc.
Graphics Horse
Member
[PS4] 214K
[XB1] 87K
[3DS] 90K
[360] 60K
[WIU] 76K
[PS3] 30K
[PSV] 72k
Kinectless Xbox is barely being ordered on Amazon, so I'm not sure how much of an effect it will have.
[XB1] 87K
[3DS] 90K
[360] 60K
[WIU] 76K
[PS3] 30K
[PSV] 72k
Kinectless Xbox is barely being ordered on Amazon, so I'm not sure how much of an effect it will have.
Dedication Through Light
Member
[360] 50K
[3DS] 90K
[PS3] 30K
[PS4] 180K
[WIU] 80K
[XB1] 100K
[3DS] 90K
[PS3] 30K
[PS4] 180K
[WIU] 80K
[XB1] 100K
michaelius
Banned
[PS4] 210K
[XB1] 90K
[3DS] 85K
[WIU] 71K
[360] 70K
[PS3] 32K
[XB1] 90K
[3DS] 85K
[WIU] 71K
[360] 70K
[PS3] 32K
shinra-bansho
Member
Doesn't count for predictions anyway, but not sure if serious... :|
FullMetaltech
Member
[PS4] 257,000
[3DS] 107,000
[XB1] 78,000
[WIU] 92,000
[360] 76,000
[PS3] 42,000
I could see Watchdogs and E3 announcements give PS4 a boost leading up to the end of closing.
[3DS] 107,000
[XB1] 78,000
[WIU] 92,000
[360] 76,000
[PS3] 42,000
I could see Watchdogs and E3 announcements give PS4 a boost leading up to the end of closing.
Graphics Horse
Member
It's doing well at Amazon anyway, 2 places behind Xbone in May.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-05/videogames/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_pg_3?ie=UTF8&pg=3
It's not that far fetched to at least see a serious boost in the numbers. Vitas were all but completely out of stock the month before, and the BL2 bundles with the 2000 models have actually been selling pretty well. Enough so to need restocks (not a lot were sent to each store, but they've sold out at least twice)
panda-zebra
Member
[PS4] 222K
[3DS] 99K
[XB1] 88K
[WiiU] 77K
[360] 55K
[PS3] 44K
[PSV] 44K
[3DS] 99K
[XB1] 88K
[WiiU] 77K
[360] 55K
[PS3] 44K
[PSV] 44K
MasterSheen
Member
Are people just predicting for the Vita because if the new model?
[360] 70k
[3DS] 95k
[PS3] 40k
[PS4] 200k
[WIU] 80k
[XB1] 85k
[360] 70k
[3DS] 95k
[PS3] 40k
[PS4] 200k
[WIU] 80k
[XB1] 85k
shinra-bansho
Member
It could see some sort of boost, I suppose. But the last time it sold 40K+ was a five-week month after it had just received a price cut, other than in November and December. So that just seems highly unlikely for May.
[PS4] 240,000
[3DS] 95,000
[XB1] 70,000
[WIU] 70,000
[360] 40,000
[PS3] 27,000
[PSV] 12,000
PS4 to sell around the same as all the other home consoles combined. Mario Kart to impact WiiU sales mainly in June rather than May.
I hope Vita sales are well above 12k but I really doubt it.
[3DS] 95,000
[XB1] 70,000
[WIU] 70,000
[360] 40,000
[PS3] 27,000
[PSV] 12,000
PS4 to sell around the same as all the other home consoles combined. Mario Kart to impact WiiU sales mainly in June rather than May.
I hope Vita sales are well above 12k but I really doubt it.
prag16
Banned
Now that I have a few minutes in between playing MK8 constantly, commentary:
I might be a little high on Wii U, but it's now or never... I suppose PS4 may do better than I'm saying here with Watch_Dogs, etc; however I'm skeptical as to how many people were waiting for this multiplat as a system seller, and it hasn't been supply constrained for months now. So I'm thinking small-ish drop, and a bigger drop for xbone as this was the trajectory it may have been on to begin with, plus the new SKU announced for June.
Vita numbers will be interesting with the new bundle, but I still expect it to finish below all listed console, and possibly even Wii. But who knows, hard to peg that one. It was apparently hard to find, but you can bet your ass Sony wasn't going to mess around massively overshipping that thing; probably erred on the side of undershipping.
Napalm_Frank
Member
Are may sales usually better than april? Cause if not I think PS4 barely breaks 200k thanks to WD. I also think XBO will be pretty miserable. Wii U over 100k, I have faith in Mario Kart.
Rogue_Ledr
Banned
Considering Microsoft announced the Kinectless SKU of Xbox One this month. If imagine most gamers are holding off on buying one till June.
Blue Ranger
Neo Member
Npd may 2007
Nintendo DS - 423,000
Wii - 338,000
Xbox 360 - 155,000
PlayStation 3 - 82,000
PSP - 221,000
PlayStation 2 - 188,000
Wiiu > ps4 > 100k > one
Mk8 > wd single sku
Nintendo DS - 423,000
Wii - 338,000
Xbox 360 - 155,000
PlayStation 3 - 82,000
PSP - 221,000
PlayStation 2 - 188,000
Wiiu > ps4 > 100k > one
Mk8 > wd single sku
sjagolinzer
Member
[360] 57K
[3DS] 89K
[PS3] 36K
[PS4] 273K
[WIU] 51K
[XB1] 77K
[3DS] 89K
[PS3] 36K
[PS4] 273K
[WIU] 51K
[XB1] 77K
How times have fallen and I seriously doubt the WiiU will be above the PS4 though I do expect MK8 to take the top singe sku spot.
[PS4]180k
[WiiU]85k
[XB1] 94k
[3DS] 101k
[360] 55k
[PS3] 45k
[PSV] 25k I hope
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
[PS4] 184K
[3DS] 93K
[WIU] 101K
[XB1] 76K
[360] 48K
[PS3] 31K
[3DS] 93K
[WIU] 101K
[XB1] 76K
[360] 48K
[PS3] 31K
Baron_Calamity
Member
I was in a gamestop yesterday picking up a used ps3 title and trading a few titles in, while my purchase and trades was being processed. The next two people in line were looking to buy a WiiU system and the next a Vita. Both were sold out. The cashiers stopped and looked at each other and
Cashier 1 asked, "has that ever happen?"
Cashier 2 replied "no it hasn't"
Cashier 1 asked again, "we are out of new and used for both WiiU and Vita?"
Cashier 2 replied "We have sold more of those than anything else this week."
So this could get interesting or it could be just that one store.
Blue Ranger
Neo Member
Wii u sub 100k wpuld be preety horrible.. Damn guys... it is fucking mario kart!!
Wii U sales are horrible every month, so that wouldn't be anything new.
Seriously, if Wii U was flat from April, then it would've sold 12K per week for the first three weeks of this four-week May period. So 36K with one week left. MK is released. Sales that last week go to 6x the rate of the first 3 weeks to put it over 100K? Not impossible, but seems a bit unlikely. You could argue that sales would've been higher the whole month in anticipation of MK8's release, but then you could be argued against that potential buyers would've held off for the MK8 bundle's release making those first 3 weeks even lower than April's average.
Personally, I think 100K is more attainable in June since it's a 5-week month and MK8 would've been available for the full month instead of just for 2 days in the month, though.
airmangataosenai
Member
PS4] 250K
[3DS] 100K
[WIU] 95K
[XBO] 105K
[360] 60K
[PS3] 50K
[3DS] 100K
[WIU] 95K
[XBO] 105K
[360] 60K
[PS3] 50K
James Sawyer Ford
Member
Traditionally May is a down month compared to April.
I suspect PS4 sales will continue to drop slightly, even with Watch Dogs and MLB The Show. I believe most gamers that wanted those titles had plenty of months to pick up a PS4 for them. So maybe 170-190K.
I also don't think Xbox One will see too much of a dramatic fall off....maybe 80-100K or slightly below. Sure, they announced a Kinectless SKU, but they still have plenty of Titanfall bundles at $499, which, IMHO, is even a better deal than a $399 Xbox One without Kinect. I don't believe the Kinectless SKU will do much for Xbox One sales.
Wii U vs. Xbox One will be interesting to watch, though. I still think Xbox One will sell better, but the gap will be closer certainly.