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May 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 14th

BeforeU

BeforeU

Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
I am sensing this will be a very bad month for Xbox One. I am gonna put Wii U sales above Xbox One.
PS4] 150K
[3DS] 90K
[WIU] 70K
[XBO] 60K
[360] 40K
[PS3] 35K
 
T

Ty4on

Member
Baron_Calamity said:
I was in a gamestop yesterday picking up a used ps3 title and trading a few titles in, while my purchase and trades was being processed. The next two people in line were looking to buy a WiiU system and the next a Vita. Both were sold out. The cashiers stopped and looked at each other and

Cashier 1 asked, "has that ever happen?"
Cashier 2 replied "no it hasn't"
Cashier 1 asked again, "we are out of new and used for both WiiU and Vita?"
Cashier 2 replied "We have sold more of those than anything else this week."

So this could get interesting or it could be just that one store.
Click to expand...
So WiiU>Vita>PS4? :p

What I'd give to see the Vita on top...
 
J

jhmtehgamr20xx

Banned
[PS4] 244 K (*)
[XBO] 105 K (*)
[WiiU] 135 K
[PS3] 45 K
[360] 50 K
[3DS] 70 K

*1: MLB 2014 will probably help a lot more here than Watch Dogs imho.

*2: I only think it might hit 105K b/c there will inevitably be some dopes who didn't hear about the Kinectless bundle. Realistically I expect something closer to 85K.

SDCowboy said:
Anyone think the PS4 possibly could nearly triple the bone for this month?
Click to expand...
They'll certainly at least double them, "more than double" them even. Triple might be stretching it unless it's noticeably sub-100K for XBO.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
I think this is a good place where to post one of my usual comparisons through Amazon :D

PS4 v.s. One: the battle on Amazon.com and Amazon.co.uk (guest star, specific Wii U items)

Amazon.com, as of 20:52 GMT

Watch Dogs
PS4 ($59.96) - 6th
One ($59.96) - 19th

PS4 ($399.99) - 9th

FIFA 14
PS4 ($52.22) - 33rd
One ($39.99) - 206th

inFAMOUS Second Son
Standard Edition ($47.99) - 40th
Limited Edition ($51.98) - 58th

Xbox One with Kinect + Titanfall ($499) - 56th

Wolfestein: The New Order
PS4 ($59.84) - 68th
One ($56.28) - 86th

Call of Duty: Ghosts
PS4 ($39.99) - 77th
One ($32.35; in stock on June 4th) - 127th

Battlefield 4
PS4 ($42.79) - 81st
One ($42.58; sold by third party vendor) - 342nd

[...]

Murdered Soul Suspect
PS4 ($59.96) - 111st
One ($59.96) - 338th

EA Sports UFC
PS4 ($59.99) - 139th
One ($59.99) - 554th

Xbox One without Kinect ($399) - 194th

Wii U corner

Mario Kart 8 ($59.99) - 3rd

Wii U Deluxe with NSMBU and NSLU ($300.00; only one in stock; sold by third party) - 72nd

Amazon.co.uk, as of 21:12 GMT

Watch Dogs
PS4 (£44) - 1st
One (£44) - 4th (360 - £39 - is 3rd)

Wolfenstein: The New Order
PS4 (£39) - 9th
One (£43.50) - 39th

PS4 (£343.65) - 25th

FIFA 14
PS4 (£42) - 27th
One (£39.98) - 181st

Murdered: Soul Suspect - Limited Edition
PS4 (£39) - 28th
One (£39) - 69th

EA Sports UFC
PS4 (£45.85) - 30th
One (£45.85) - 148th

inFAMOUS: Second Son (£39.85) - 50th

Forza Motorsport 5 (£29.99) - 57th

Metro Redux
PS4 (£35.73) - 64th
One (£35.73) - 398th

Call of Duty: Ghosts
PS4 (£34.99) - 70th
One (£30.85) - 105th

The Last of Us Remastered (£49.85) - 97th

[..]

Xbox One with Kinect + Titanfall (£389.99; 20£ off Watch Dogs with this console) - 117th

Xbox One without Kinect (£349) - 1,047th

Wii U corner

Mario Kart 8 (£39) - 2nd

Wii U Deluxe with Mario Kart 8 (£249.99) - 51st
 
G

Graphics Horse

Member
Abdiel said:
So far, I've been kinda confused by the predictions for everyone with the PS4's numbers dropping over the last month. Unlike the previous month, there's some serious releases to stir customer interest, including Watch_Dogs... And I think some of you really undersell the impact the Show has. There's a very dedicated fanbase that plays those games, and they always want the best version of it. I've seen customers buy a PS4 and a Vita just so they can have the best version of the game at home, and keep their RTTS mode with them as they travel. I'm not saying the numbers should be a blowout over the last month for the PS4, but the numbers certainly haven't tracked down for it at least. I'd be (very) surprised if the numbers were lower than the month before.

Though honestly, we have definitely seen the downturn on the XB1 numbers. Stayed on a pretty low end slope... How bad, I have no idea, but MS making that announcement so early definitely seemed to send ripples.
Click to expand...

Any sign of a rise in Wii U sales before or after Mario Kart? assuming BB sells Wii Us. Thanks.

Mpl90 said:
Xbox One with Kinect + Titanfall (£389.99; 20£ off Watch Dogs with this console) - 117th

Xbox One without Kinect (£349) - 1,047th
Click to expand...

Wow I thought it was much higher than that recently, but yeah nobody cares about the Kinectless Xbox One right now, might change once it's an impulse purchase, but all the deals and bundled game are making the Kinect version seem like a better buy for now.
 
G

Gbpackers31

Member
[360] 65k
[3DS] 90k
[PS3] 40k
[PS4] 235k
[WIU] 90k
[XB1] 85k

This is a pretty difficult month. Hopefully some information comes out prior to the deadline at E3.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Graphics Horse said:
Wow I thought it was much higher than that recently, but yeah nobody cares about the Kinectless Xbox One right now, might change once it's an impulse purchase, but all the deals and bundled game are making the Kinect version seem like a better buy for now.
Click to expand...

It doesn't help that Amazon.co.uk has also others batshit insane bundles

As of 23:06 GMT

Xbox One with Kinect + Titanfall (£389.99) - 115th
Xbox One with Kinect (£379.99) - 136th
Xbox One with Kinect + Titanfall & Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag (£389.99) - 240th
Xbox One with Kinect + Titanfall & Live for 12 Months (£399.99) - 711st
Xbox One with Kinect + Titanfall & Just Dance 2014 & Rayman Legends (£389.99) - 1,048th
Xbox One without Kinect (£349.99) - 1,182nd

UK already got a £30 price cut (£429.99 --> £399.99), all models are now priced lower than £399.99, despite bundles with one, if not two, if not 3 games...there are far less incentives in buying the Kinectless bundle than elsewhere. So, given how the rest of Europe is so cold about One, it seems the new model could impact sales mainly in US, not even in US & UK.

P.S. I just realised there's a Wii U SKU in UK top 100, but no One SKU right now. Lol worthy?
 
G

Graphics Horse

Member
That's what I meant by 'all the deals'!

Mpl90 said:
P.S. I just realised there's a Wii U SKU in UK top 100, but no One SKU right now. Lol worthy?
Click to expand...

Interesting, I could be wrong but thought only a day or two ago the xbone was in the top 100 and higher than the Wii U in the UK, but the Mario Kart effect looks to be in full swing now!

edit: had no idea Zombie U was still floating around the top 100. Very cheap of course.
 
P

Prelude.

Member
Baron_Calamity said:
I was in a gamestop yesterday picking up a used ps3 title and trading a few titles in, while my purchase and trades was being processed. The next two people in line were looking to buy a WiiU system and the next a Vita. Both were sold out. The cashiers stopped and looked at each other and

Cashier 1 asked, "has that ever happen?"
Cashier 2 replied "no it hasn't"
Cashier 1 asked again, "we are out of new and used for both WiiU and Vita?"
Cashier 2 replied "We have sold more of those than anything else this week."

So this could get interesting or it could be just that one store.
Click to expand...
Well, the Vita just got restocked with a new model after months of nothing and the Wii U got MK8 so I guess that's understandable.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Graphics Horse said:
Interesting, I could be wrong but thought only a day or two ago the xbone was in the top 100 and higher than the Wii U in the UK, but the Mario Kart effect looks to be in full swing now!
Click to expand...

Xbox One just got red shelled (Not Blue Shelled, since it's not first)!

Being honest and serious, we must also consider that there are several One SKUs, so we must consider the sum of sales of each SKU. The same could be said for Wii U, but the other SKUs available aren't that high: the Lego bundle is 739th now, the others are all outside of top 1000 (even if the Just Dance, Wii Party and Mario Kart 8 pack is sold out).
 
G

Graphics Horse

Member
Mpl90 said:
Xbox One just got red shelled (Not Blue Shelled, since it's not first)!

Being honest and serious, we must also consider that there are several One SKUs, so we must consider the sum of sales of each SKU. The same could be said for Wii U, but the other SKUs available aren't that high: the Lego bundle is 739th now, the others are all outside of top 1000 (even if the Just Dance, Wii Party and Mario Kart 8 pack is sold out).
Click to expand...

True but none of those can count for much. Xbone needs a boost or it's in danger of falling below 138th place.Vita. edit: Ah I see the non-Titanfall one now, so it's doing more than twice as good as the Vita currently.
Anyway we're probably confusing people talking about UK sales in the NPD thread so I'm stopping for now.
 
S

S¡mon

Banned
[PS4] 219K
[XB1] 78K
[3DS] 92K
[360] 74K
[WIU] 60K
[PS3] 35K

Xbox One thoughts:
I am assuming that for the first ten days, Xbox One sales per day were equal to the sales/day in April (so: 41K up to that point [4.1K/day]). On the other 18 days, it was known that a $399 Xbox One would be coming out.
So, for those 18 days, I am assuming a 50% drop in sales. I'm honestly not sure how much sales have dropped, it could be way lower (like 20%), but also be way higher (like 80%).. but I'm going for 50%. That would suggest 37K [2.05K/day] in sales. 41K+37K = 78K.
Also, let's not forget big games like Watch_Dogs and Wolfenstein came out.

PlayStation 4 thoughts:
Supply has caught up with demand (in the US). Normally, I would say that PS4 sales would go down compared to April. That said, the following games will probably compensate for that and may even cause an uptick in sales compared to April:

- MLB 14: The Show (exclusive to PS4 (and PS3), it must have sold some PS4 units in the US)
- Wolfenstein: The New Order (won't have sold that many PS4s, but hey... there must be some people that bought a PS4 for this)
- Watch_Dogs (this game has been marketed with PS4 (and PS3) everywhere - heck, I've even heard multiple persons thinking that Watch_Dogs was a PS4 exclusive)

Other platforms: Mario Kart for Wii U will be Xbox One's Titanfall (there will be an uptick, but nothing to call home about), PS3 and X360 slight uptick in sales because of Watch_Dogs.
 
H

hepburn3d

Member
[PS4] 197K
[XB1] 99K
[3DS] 90K
[360] 60K
[WIU] 70K
[PS3] 50K
[PSV] 27K

Edit: Put xbox up due to amazon showing bundles still doing well. Put WiiU down due to how late MarioKart8 released for this month
 
S

Skeff

Member
Skeff said:
[PS4] 240,000
[3DS] 95,000
[XB1] 70,000
[WIU] 70,000
[360] 40,000
[PS3] 27,000
[PSV] 12,000

PS4 to sell around the same as all the other home consoles combined. Mario Kart to impact WiiU sales mainly in June rather than May.

I hope Vita sales are well above 12k but I really doubt it.
Click to expand...

i bumped my PS4 number up from 210k to 240k after reading about the 90% increase or whatever it was in the UK week over week thanks to watchdogs.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
PS4 v.s. One: the battle on Amazon.com and Amazon.co.uk (guest star, specific Wii U items) - only items already released / coming out till around the next month

Amazon.com, as of 17:40 GMT

Watch Dogs
PS4 ($59.96) - 6th
One ($59.96) - 19th

PS4 ($399.99) - 8th

Xbox One with Kinect + Titanfall ($499) - 41st

FIFA 14
PS4 ($47.99; only 12 left in stock; sold by third party) - 52nd
One ($32) - 104th

Call of Duty: Ghosts
PS4 ($39.99) - 61st
One ($29.99) - 89th

Wolfestein: The New Order
PS4 ($59.84) - 68th
One ($59.99) - 82nd

Murdered Soul Suspect
PS4 ($59.96) - 72nd
One ($59.96) - 165th

inFAMOUS Second Son
Limited Edition ($51.98) - 81st
Standard Edition ($47.99) - 84th

Battlefield 4
PS4 ($42.79) - 88th
One ($43.45; sold by third party vendor) - 218th

Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag
PS4 ($42.77) - 90th
One ($43.19) - 272nd

EA Sports UFC
PS4 ($59.99) - 94th
One ($59.99) - 248th

[..]

Xbox One without Kinect ($399) - 111st

Wii U corner

Mario Kart 8 ($59.99) - 1st

Wii U Deluxe with NSMBU and NSLU ($302.00; sold by third party) - 44th

Amazon.co.uk, as of 17:55 GMT

Watch Dogs
PS4 (£44) - 1st
One (£44) - 4th (360 - £39 - is 3rd)

Wolfenstein: The New Order
PS4 (£39) - 10th
One (£42.40) - 35th

Murdered: Soul Suspect - Limited Edition
PS4 (£39.85) - 22nd
One (£39) - 23rd

EA Sports UFC
PS4 (£45.85) - 25th
One (£45.85) - 56th

PS4 (£343.65) - 26th

FIFA 14
PS4 (£42) - 37th
One (£39.98) - 156th

Forza Motorsport 5 (£29.99) - 49th

Metro Redux
PS4 (£35.73) - 59th
One (£35.73) - 136th

Dead Rising 3 (£29.95) - 62nd

The Last of Us Remastered (£49.85) - 70th

inFAMOUS: Second Son (£42.85) - 73rd

Xbox One with Kinect + Titanfall (£389.99) - 80th

Battlefield 4
PS4 (£41.86) - 84th
One (£42.85) - 207th

Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes
PS4 (£20) - 85th
One (£29) - 590th

[..]

Xbox One without Kinect (£349) - 1,003rd

Wii U corner

Mario Kart 8 (£39) - 2nd

Wii U Deluxe with Mario Kart 8 (£249.99) - 40th
 
M

Miles X

Member
[360] 50k
[3DS] 100k
[PS3] 30k
[PS4] 250k
[WIU] 100k
[XB1] 105k


3DS should be flat with last month, PS4 will get huge bump. XB1 will drop but the harshness of the price drop announcement will be offset by Watchdogs boost. WiiU is a bit of a toss up, feel 100k is generous, maybe it'll do better ...
 
R

RayMaker

Banned
[PS4] 250K
[XB1] 150K
[3DS] 100K
[360] 70K
[WIU] 70K
[PS3] 30K

I think watchdogs will give the current gen platforms a boost

I cannot see the XB1 catching up unless it gets more games, a cheaper price or both t. MS seem to be catching up to the PS4 on price and a few others things (paywall + games on gold) but they need to be far more aggressive if they want to be the best selling current gen system.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
After Watch Dogs number I will give my take.

[PS4] 240k
[3DS] 75k
[WIU] 100k
[XBO] 90k
[360] 40k
[PS3] 35K
[PSV] 55k
 
joecanada

joecanada

Member
Mpl90 said:
PS4 v.s. One: the battle on Amazon.com and Amazon.co.uk (guest star, specific Wii U items) - only items already released / coming out till around the next month
Click to expand...


you know it would be interesting if someone would graph Amazon as an indicator of next gen sales... throughout this gen, when people were saying ps4 wasn't sold out anywhere or that ps4 had models "everywhere" it was consistently charting high on amazon (when in stock) and breaking sales records...
I have seen it to be fairly accurate in sampling for the US.
 
prag16

prag16

Banned
Can't understand how some people are predicting xbone to increase month over month. Yes, Watch_Dogs came out, but I expect that to be slanted towards PS4, and the cheaper SKU hits next month..
 
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