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[Elios83]

Let's try to gamble a bit this month, don't know how's gonna end

[PS4] 250k
[XB1] 65k
[3DS] 95k
[360] 55K
[WIU] 110k
[PS3] 45k

 

[hepburn3d]

PS4 v.s. One: the battle on Amazon.com and Amazon.co.uk (guest star, specific Wii U items) - only items already released / coming out till around the next month

I do enjoy your amazon posts. I regularly check .com + .co.uk amazon top sellers to get the "feels" for what's selling. Don't know why I like seeing them but I do.

Amazon top sellers graphs would be pretty awesome. I <3 graphs

Edit:

I find it interesting to check how many people have reviewed a product as well. PS4 vs XB1 like for like games. It's interesting that first person shooters are more neck and neck than 3rd person sandbox games. I haven't noticed any trending for future yet though. Need dem NPD's

 

[grimlock442]

[PS4] 240k
[XB1] 50k
[360] 60K
[3DS] 45k
[WIU] 90k
[PS3] 40k

 

[unapersson]

[PS4] 250K
I think watchdogs will give the current gen platforms a boost

I cannot see the XB1 catching up unless it gets more games, a cheaper price or both t. MS seem to be catching up to the PS4 on price and a few others things (paywall + games on gold) but they need to be far more aggressive if they want to be the best selling current gen system.

I wonder why they went ahead with their sales killing announcement shortly before the Watchdogs release. It surely must have muted any Watchdogs related boost.

 

[unapersson]

I do enjoy your amazon posts. I regularly check .com + .co.uk amazon top sellers to get the "feels" for what's selling. Don't know why I like seeing them but I do.

The only real problem is that the further down the chart you get the smaller the actual numerical differences are. So there might be a 1000 copy difference between #1 and #2, but only a 20 copy difference between #60 and #80. So the lack of numbers can be misleading.

 

[random25]

First try to do this...let's see how good my numbers are:

[PS4] 170K
[XB1] 50K
[Wii U] 70K
[3DS] 90K
[PS3] 20K
[360] 50K

 

[Deleted member 125677]

[PS4] 180K
[XB1] 100K
[3DS] 90K
[360] 50K
[WIU] 110K
[PS3] 30K


probably expecting too much of a mk boost but wth

 

[aspiegamer]

[PS4] 227k
[XB1] 76k
[3DS] 88k
[360] 68k
[WIU] 77k
[PS3] 43k

Thoughts: A small Watch Dogs bump for the PS4. I'm thinking a ratio between 5:2 and 3:1. Anecdotally, the Titanfall bundle has been outselling pre-orders on the $399 SKU on Amazon since announce. Total interest in the XB1 might low enough that there's not as much drop-off as many might predict. My actual Wii U number is a The Price Is Right style "XB1+1 units" mostly because I'd love to watch the reactions. Nintendo earned it with MK8 and Microsoft telegraphed the new SKU pretty far ahead of release. If the 360 somehow outsold the XB1 it would be a PR disaster.
Wii U vs XB1 is the drama this month. Awesome PS4 vs XB1 drama coming for June.

 

[Bundy]

The only real problem is that the further down the chart you get the smaller the actual numerical differences are. So there might be a 1000 copy difference between #1 and #2, but only a 20 copy difference between #60 and #80. So the lack of numbers can be misleading.

I'm still not able to search for the "best sellers" of a certain month.
You can search for the "current best sellers" and for the whole year.
But monthly?

 

[unapersson]

I'm still not able to search for the "best sellers" of a certain month.
You can search for the "current best sellers" and for the whole year.
But monthly?

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-05/videogames

 

[Mpl90]

PS4 v.s. One: the battle on Amazon.com (guest star, specific Wii U items) - only items already released / coming out till around the next month

Amazon.com, as of 11:34 GMT

PS4 ($399.99) - 5th

Watch Dogs
PS4 ($59.96) - 7th
One ($59.46) - 20th

Xbox One with Kinect + Titanfall ($499) - 38th

Call of Duty: Ghosts
PS4 ($39.99) - 46th
One ($29.99) - 53rd

Wolfestein: The New Order
PS4 ($57.74; only 11 left in stock; sold by third party) - 54th
One ($59.99) - 87th

Battlefield 4
PS4 ($41.74; sold by third party) - 59th
One ($43.99; sold by third party) - 210th

FIFA 14
PS4 ($59.96) - 61st
One ($32.49) - 64th

EA Sports UFC
PS4 ($59.99) - 67th
One ($59.99) - 197th

inFAMOUS Second Son
Limited Edition ($51.98) - 72nd
Standard Edition ($47.99; only 4 left in stock; sold by third party) - 162nd

Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag
PS4 ($42.76) - 77th
One ($41.66) - 223rd

Murdered Soul Suspect
PS4 ($59.96) - 72nd
One ($59.96) - 165th

Xbox One without Kinect ($399) - 78th

MLB 14 The Show ($58.81) - 86th

NBA 2K14 - All hope is lost
PS4 ($34.99) - 97th. All hope is lost
One ($34.99) - 296th. All hope is lost

Wii U corner

Mario Kart 8 ($59.99) - 3rd

Wii U Deluxe with NSMBU and NSLU ($309.00; sold by third party) - 48th

 

[Lexxism]

[360] 65k
[3DS] 100k
[PS3] 50k
[PS4] 250k
[WIU] 98k
[XB1] 90k

 

[anonymous_abc]

[360] 20k
[3DS] 50k
[PS3] 20k
[PS4] 250k
[WIU] 75k
[XB1] 100k

 

[hepburn3d]

Any chance OP could average everyone's scores before the NPD is released? I'd be interested to see what the average NeoGaf member thinks i.e. are we all optimists, pessimists, realists compared to the actual result. Would be interesting to see from a useless information point of view

 

[idlewild_]

Any chance OP could average everyone's scores before the NPD is released? I'd be interested to see what the average NeoGaf member thinks i.e. are we all optimists, pessimists, realists compared to the actual result. Would be interesting to see from a useless information point of view

He usually does sometime between the prediction deadline and the actual results coming out.

 

[lightning2k3]

I feel like may will be pretty big for the Vita. I tried buying the borderlands bundle and its been sold out at a lot of Gamestops and even on amazon. When i finally located one at best buy they told me they had sold out their last shipment, and that this their new shipmkent has been selling surprisingly well. Maybe the vita will show some signs of life in NA again(30k+)?

 

[Delusibeta]

[360] 50k
[3DS] 75k
[PS3] 40k
[PS4] 200k
[WIU] 90k
[XB1] 80k

That's right, I'm predicting the WiiU outselling the Xbone. I'd imagine a decent chunk of Xbone's sales would be pre-orders for the disKinect edition, which would mean they would fall into next month's tracking. Meanwhile, the WiiU gets Mario Kart 8, which has already sold pretty decent numbers. Watch Dogs is going to be the joker in the pack, but I suspect that is going to benefit the PS4 more than the Xbone.

In other news, predicting Drakenguard 2 to outsell Mugen Souls Z 2:1.

 

[Bruno MB]

[360] 60,000
[3DS] 99,000
[PS3] 30,000
[PS4] 185,000
[WIU] 100,000
[XB1] 95,000

 

[theprodigy]

[PS4] 220k
[WIU] 100k
[3DS] 95k
[XB1] 80k
[360] 66k
[PS3] 35k

probably will come and change this later, and make it worse

 

[SwiftDeath]

Ugh Wii U, 3DS, and XB1 are so hard to predict :\

 

[Bundy]

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-05/videogames

Thanks, buddy ^_^

 

[Jason Colin]

why is everyone predicting such a low number for xbox one?

Yes, it dies seem strange since the day of unkinected is a few days now. I believe Xbox Will pull slightly ahead it tie because if this.

I do not believe however, Mario kart alone, will give a significant boost.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Yes, it dies seem strange since the day of unkinected is a few days now. I believe Xbox Will pull slightly ahead it tie because if this.

I do not believe however, Mario kart alone, will give a significant boost.

As per OP

NPD Coverage: May 4-31, 2014 (4 weeks, April was 4 weeks)

Potential hardware impacting events in May:
Microsoft announced XB1 Kinect-less SKU for $400 to be released June 9 - May 13 (19 days)

MS announced on May 13th that a XB1 could be bought for $100 less without a kinect but this new SKU wouldn't be available until June 9th

Thus signaling to consumers who do not want to buy a kinect with their XB1 to wait almost 3 weeks until the June NPD tracking period

 

[Sharpeye]

[PS4] 275K
[XB1] 105K
[WIU] 90K
[3DS] 55K
[PS3] 27K
[360] 35K

 

[Filaipus]

I understand why the numbers would be low but I can't understand why such a big number for ps4. 230k? What happened this month?

 

[Bundy]

I understand why the numbers would be low but I can't understand why such a big number for ps4. 230k? What happened this month?

MLB The Show (PS4)
Watch Dogs selling like hotcakes -> Ubisoft/Sony marketing deal.
(which makes it look like a PS3/4-only game for some people)

 

[SwiftDeath]

I understand why the numbers would be low but I can't understand why such a big number for ps4. 230k? What happened this month?

Today, Ubisoft® announced ongoing record sales for Watch Dogs, which has sold-through more than 4 million copies in its first week, positioning it as the best-selling new IP at launch across the video game industry*. Having already broken sales records in the first 24 hours following its release, Watch Dogs is now the company's best-selling game ever in week one**.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=829897

 

[Filaipus]

MLB The Show (PS4)
Watch Dogs selling like hotcakes -> Ubisoft/Sony marketing deal.
(which makes it look like a PS3/4-only game for some people)

Ooo... Yea it makes sense. Thanks.

 

[astrogamer]

[PS4] 240k
[XB1] 80k
[WIU] 120k
[3DS] 70k
[PS3] 45k
[360] 65k
[Vita] 30k

 

[Prototype Viktor]

threw my PS4 numbers up quite a bit begrudgingly due to the effect of Watch Dogs

 

[Otakumegane]

Dunno I think WiiU is still going to end up just a tad lower then Xbone.

Am I crazy for thinking that?

 

[michaelius]

Dunno I think WiiU is still going to end up just a tad lower then Xbone.

Am I crazy for thinking that?

Who knows.

Wii U has it biggest release ever and new bundle and xbox is at it's worst moment in history just before "price-cut".

Will it be enough ? Hard to say.

 

[Bundy]

Dunno I think WiiU is still going to end up just a tad lower then Xbone.

Am I crazy for thinking that?

Nobody knows it.

In Japan, Mario Kart did nearly nothing for the WiiU, regarding the sales for the console itself. But... well... it's japan. Consoles are nearly dead there.

Then, there is America, were most of the "Joe Average" gamers don't even know that there is a 399$/Kinect-less console coming. So they still bought the Xbone 449/499$ SKU in May.

Everything can happen.

 

[Omotesando]

[PS4] 199K
[WIU] 120K
[3DS] 75K
[XB1] 70K
[360] 60K
[PS3] 40K

 

[Relativ9]

[PS4] 270K
[WIU] 130K
[3DS] 75K
[XB1] 70K
[360] 60K
[PS3] 55K

Thinking Watch_Dogs will do a bit of good for the last gen consoles as well, but it will mostly boost PS4 sales. XB1 would've been lower if it wasn't for Watch_Dogs.

 

[prag16]

That banned site has PS4 243, WiiU 110, XB1 105, 3DS 92, 360 56, PS3 32.

It's always funny to see how far off their numberz are. I bet many of us here beat them consistently. So absurd that many media outlets still cite them as a "legit" source.

 

[Aquamarine]

That banned site has PS4 243, WiiU 110, XB1 105, 3DS 92, 360 56, PS3 32.

It's always funny to see how far off their numberz are. I bet many of us here beat them consistently. So absurd that many media outlets still cite them as a "legit" source.

They stated that Xbox One sold 218K last month. That's right...218K.

So when the real sales data came in (115K), it was quite hilarious to see them fail that hard.

Of course, the DAY AFTER real NPD sales came out, they adjusted that laughably bad 218K down to 130K in reaction to NPD, which is still overtracking the proper 115K figure.

I wish people would stop giving fake video game sales any credibility / giving that stupid website ad revenue. The ridiculous overtracking (claiming 218K "sales" of Xbox One in the USA) demonstrates clearly how Chartz is no more accurate than your average GAFfer's prediction.

 

[Jamix012]

That banned site has PS4 243, WiiU 110, XB1 105, 3DS 92, 360 56, PS3 32.

It's always funny to see how far off their numberz are. I bet many of us here beat them consistently. So absurd that many media outlets still cite them as a "legit" source.

Anyone who uses them to track numbers from the last year is pretty misguided. In their defense though, their legacy numbers are surprisingly accurate. I only really began considering them after Pachter exclaimed they were pretty accurate for numbers older than a year sometime last year. They're banned for a reason: they're a false hub of modern numbers less accurate than the average GAFfer, but honestly? They're useful if you're looking for a place to get legacy numbers in a convenient form.

 

[Aquamarine]

Anyone who uses them to track numbers from the last year is pretty misguided. In their defense though, their legacy numbers are surprisingly accurate. I only really began considering them after Pachter exclaimed they were pretty accurate for numbers older than a year sometime last year. They're banned for a reason: they're a false hub of modern numbers less accurate than the average GAFfer, but honestly? They're useful if you're looking for a place to get legacy numbers in a convenient form.

Their legacy numbers aren't uniformly reliable, no.

I have a hunch that VG Chartz steals some numbers from NPD / Famitsu, but it's not done across the board.

That is, they have absolutely no standards of reliability. They throw in random guesses and guesstimates and slightly-modified NPD data into one massive crap shoot and gloss over all of it as "video game sales data."

The website staff just do it to bring in ad revenue anyway. It's a huge money maker that preys on ignorance, and every time some delusional news organisation quotes it like it's fact, the unreliable misinformation continues to spread.

 

[SwiftDeath]

I would pay MPL90 for his Amazon based analysis on future NPDs before I'd give a cent to that site

At least I'd know he'd put work into it

 

[groshkar]

[PS4] 165K
[3DS] 122K
[360] 73K
[XB1] 70K
[WIU] 60K
[PS3] 36K

 

[lightzGamin]

PS4: 210K
XBOX1: 130K
WII U : 60K
PS3: 40K
360: 47K
3DS : 100k

 

[prag16]

Hah, their "prediction" for this month seems more reasonable than last month's xbone prediction... but still probably too high. Wonder where they'd rank among gaf members. Probably not near the top based on what little I've paid attention to.

 

[Welfare]

Even when numbers do come out, Chartz sometimes doesn't adjust the numbers. 360 is still over-tracked in the US, XB1 2013 is still over-tracked, and their 3DS numbers have always been laughable. I only visit that site to go on their forum, and even they know Chartz is BS.

 

[Aquamarine]

Even when numbers do come out, Chartz sometimes doesn't adjust the numbers. 360 is still over-tracked in the US, XB1 2013 is still over-tracked, and their 3DS numbers have always been laughable. I only visit that site to go on their forum, and even they know Chartz is BS.

If they know the numbers are bullshit, I wish they would go another, BETTER forum that doesn't give the management more ad revenue.

Like NeoGAF.

 

[fedexpeon]

[PS4] 210K
[XB1] 70K
[Wii U] 30K
[3DS] 60K
[PS3] 35K
[360] 75K

 

[Jason Colin]

As per OP



MS announced on May 13th that a XB1 could be bought for $100 less without a kinect but this new SKU wouldn't be available until June 9th

Thus signaling to consumers who do not want to buy a kinect with their XB1 to wait almost 3 weeks until the June NPD tracking period

An announcement that was not heavily spread.

 

[Jamix012]

Their legacy numbers aren't uniformly reliable, no.

I have a hunch that VG Chartz steals some numbers from NPD / Famitsu, but it's not done across the board.

That is, they have absolutely no standards of reliability. They throw in random guesses and guesstimates and slightly-modified NPD data into one massive crap shoot and gloss over all of it as "video game sales data."

The website staff just do it to bring in ad revenue anyway. It's a huge money maker that preys on ignorance, and every time some delusional news organisation quotes it like it's fact, the unreliable misinformation continues to spread.

You might be correct, and you're probably one of the GAFers I'm most likely to listen to, but none the less I'm not so sure you're right on this. I don't want to be banned for arguing in their favour too much, but I will point out that Pachter (who probably has the data to check this) seems to think their legacy numbers are pretty on the spot and leave it at that. Again though, their recent numbers might as well be predictions though and are totally unreliable and I support their banning.

 

[SwiftDeath]

An announcement that was not heavily spread.

Sure that is a valid argument that the announcement didn't trickle down to potential XB1 buyers but with May historically being down from April and Watch Dogs being heavily co-marketed towards PS4/PS3, XB1 is unlikely to sell anything but less than it's April numbers

Per normal historical trends where May is around 86 - 88% of April numbers, XB1 has a baseline around 99k assuming no negative impact from that announcement

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=114148834&highlight=#post114148834

Pretty much any effect from that announcement is going to assure XB1 is sub-100k unless something big happens unexpectedly

 

[Aquamarine]

Sure that is a valid argument that the announcement didn't trickle down to potential XB1 buyers but with May historically being down from April and Watch Dogs being heavily co-marketed towards PS4/PS3, XB1 is unlikely to sell anything but less than it's April numbers

Per normal historical trends where May is around 86 - 88% of April numbers, XB1 has a baseline around 99k assuming no negative impact from that announcement

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=114148834&highlight=#post114148834

Pretty much any effect from that announcement is going to assure XB1 is sub-100k unless something big happens unexpectedly

I agree...Xbox One sales definitely seem like they're lower than last month. And if last month they were 115K, sub-100K seems pretty guaranteed.