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NPD Sales Results for January 2014 [Up3: PS4/XB1 #1/#2 best selling; Poke/SM3DW/ALBW]

Definitively agree with this. It really bothered me when Nintendo talked about price that they didn't have a good plan on it. Apple now makes OS updates, iLife and iWork free for Mac/iOS users because they make a decent margin on HW. Why can't Nintendo do something similar instead of desperately trying to get the same insane profits they had during the Wii/DS era. The WiiU bundles in Japan seemingly had a much bigger effect than Mario 3D World.

yes, nintendo should sell hardware that costs ~$200 to manufacture for $600+, good idea
 
What did Gamecube do in its 2nd Jan? I wanna see a continuation of that Dreamcast/Gamecube/Wii/WiiU chart!!
I have it at about 80K.
Ps3 and 360 desperately need a price drop.
I don't think it's really that at this stage. They're over 7 and 8 years old respectively and have sold a combined 67M units. It's saturation.

When the PS2 was down to about a 100K January in 2009, the collective 6th gen consoles had sold around 69M.
 

kinggroin

Banned
We can't direct compare the January for PS4 and Wii yet... both were supply constrained but Sony shipped less than Nintendo... about 100k less units in January.

Who knows how much PS4 or Wii could sell if they have a shipment over 500k in the first January?

Fact for now is that PS4 is selling better than Wii even without Japan... so th gap will increase.


Not a gap, you mean the pace right?

I can get behind the PS4 outselling the Wii worldwide, but I just don't see the demand in the US to be comparable.

Saying they shipped 100k less units in January asserts that its what, MORE supply constrained than the the Wii was back then? I can buy a PS4 today, yesterday, all of last week...

...it may have less shipment, but it SEEMS like much less demand too.

Eh, I'm not going to argue further cause all we have is this tiny snapshot so far. A year of sales will give us a better picture, and may find me being wrong yet again (I predicted Xbox brand dominance in the US this year, ha!)
 

Interfectum

Member
I was able to find Wii's for sale by April, the demand online is somewhat exaggerated. Moreover, you're acting as if a margin of 800k units is some small sum when it's not. Regardless of the reason the point still stands that PS4 is still the top selling console ever by a large sum and the only console to even come close is the XBO and yet..... somehow we're headed for a massive industry contraction. Do you not see how flawed this logic is?

You are focusing on the wrong number which can be explained by manufacturing constraints. Software sales are down 26% with brand new consoles being on the market. That is the number you need to worry about.
 
I have it at about 80K.

I don't think it's really that at this stage. They're over 7 and 8 years old respectively and have sold a combined 67M units. It's saturation.

When the PS2 was down to about a 100K January in 2009, the collective 6th gen consoles had sold around 69M.

Ps2 was priced at $129 when PS3 launched, It sold gangbusters around that time.
 
Not a gap, you mean the pace right?

I can get behind the PS4 outselling the Wii worldwide, but I just don't see the demand in the US to be comparable.

Saying they shipped 100k less units in January asserts that its what, MORE supply constrained than the the Wii was back then? I can buy a PS4 today, yesterday, all of last week...

...it may have less shipment, but it SEEMS like much less demand too.

I don't live in the USA so I don't have any firsthand information, but those stock tracking websites consistently show the PS4 as being sold out at major retailers.

It might be true that you could've walked out and bought a PS4 any day of the month in January, but I haven't seen any evidence for that.
 

CoG

Member
Just browsing the usual sites this morning it seems the NPD numbers changed a lot of people's attitudes from "Xbox One hate is just a GAF thing" to "Microsoft really has a problem here". Even people on /r/xboxone are starting to admit the PS4 is a more powerful system meaning 3rd party will always be better on PS4. TR numbers confirm the better version will sell better.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Saying they shipped 100k less units in January asserts that its what, MORE supply constrained than the the Wii was back then? I can buy a PS4 today, yesterday, all of last week...
You could like 270k others guys could... like 400k Wii guys could... Sony is selling what they ship in US like Nintendo did at Wii launch.

That's what I'm saying you can't compare PS4 vs Wii sales while they have/had supply issues... the only think we know is that Sony sold more PS4 than Nintendo Wii right now.
 
Some YOY and GOG comparisons. I included weekly calculations in order to account for the extra weeks in 2013 and 2007.

Monthly Basis
Code:
Year Over Year
         2014     2013    % Change
XB1       141             
360        48      281     -82.92%
PS4       271             
PS3        54      201     -73.13%
WIU        49       57     -14.04%
WII                100   
3DS        97      145     -33.10%
NDS                 70   
PSV        17       35     -51.43%
PSP                 10   
                        
Family                  
MSFT      189      281     -32.74%
SONY      342      246      39.02%
NINT      146      372     -60.75%
                         
HAND      114      260     -56.15%
CONSOLE   563      639     -11.89%
                        
Gen over Gen                    
Console  2014     2007    % Change
360                294     
PS2                299     
WII                436     
PS3                244     
TOTAL     563    1,273     -55.77%
                        
Handheld 2014     2008    % Change
NDS                251     
PSP                230     
Total     114      481     -76.30%
Weekly Basis
Code:
Year Over Year
         2014     2013    % Change
XB1     35.25          
360        12     56.2     -78.65%
PS4     67.75          
PS3      13.5     40.2     -66.42%
WIU     12.25     11.4       7.46%
WII                 20      
3DS     24.25       29     -16.38%
NDS                 14      
PSV      4.25        7     -39.29%
PSP                  2       
                        
Family                  
MSFT    47.25     56.2    -15.93%
SONY     85.5     49.2     73.78%
NINT     36.5     74.4    -50.94%
                        
HAND     28.5       52    -45.19%
CONSOLE140.75    127.8     10.13%
                        
Gen over Gen                    
Console  2014     2007   % Change
360               58.8    
PS2               59.8    
WII               87.2    
PS3               48.8    
TOTAL  140.75    254.6    -44.72%
                        
Handheld 2014     2008    % Change
NDS              62.75   
PSP               57.5    
Total    28.5   120.25     -76.30%

Very nice, thx.
 
Ps2 was priced at $129 when PS3 launched, It sold gangbusters around that time.
There were only 35.5M PS2's sold when the PS3 launched and about 14.5M Xbox systems. Again, there are 17M more PS360s already out there in consumer homes.

I really don't think a price drop at this stage will do much, both already have SKUs below the $200 psychological price barrier.
 
You are focusing on the wrong number which can be explained by manufacturing constraints. Software sales are down 26% with brand new consoles being on the market. That is the number you need to worry about.

Month by month software sales fluctuation mean less than you think, as they are influenced by major releases and/or a single major release underperforming. There were no major releases this month whereas 2013 had Ni no Kuni and DmC. Neither lit the charts on fire to be sure, but their presence was enough to bring software sales up year over year back then. If Titanfall and Infamous do poorly you might have a point but until then you're jumping the gun. Nothing came out in January this year which skewed the results down slightly.

Also as far as software goes, CoD on next gen is very close to going over 1 million, is it not? A single game hitting that milestone so early in a console's life without bundles is unheard of.
 

Amir0x

Banned
Some YOY and GOG comparisons. I included weekly calculations in order to account for the extra weeks in 2013 and 2007.

I used your chart in a topic I made, but I was wondering if we had any way to compare how the transitions looked from PS2/Xbox/GCN/GBA -> 360/PS3/Wii/DS/PSP
 

jakncoke

Banned
I may be in the minority with this thinking but I think just because MS has a 4 gb at 199 or whatever it is now and Sony a 12 gb at 199, that the general mass of bargain console shoppers want the higher hdds without having to deal with replacing the hdd themselve. The higher hdd are still quite expensive for this stage of the game. Hell even the smaller ones are pretty expensive. I wonder if they'll try to get that crowd or just let the last gen ease into the sunset with maybe 1 more pricecut.
 

Freeman

Banned
I agree, but if they do that, they take away PS4 & Xbone sales.
Very different consumers at this point. Who games but doesn't own a PS3/360 at this point? Get PS3 bellow 150$ an suddenly it has a much better appeal to someone who already own a 360/Wii or who just wants to have a streaming machine/bluray player and game as a plus.

At 99$ I would buy another two.
 

Opiate

Member
I think it's too early to be drawing strong conclusions from this NPD, just as it was too early last month to conclude that the PS4/Xbox One were going to ride a hot month in to glory and be the best selling systems of all time.

We just need more data. By March or April, we'll probably have a general shape of things.
 

kinoki

Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
Yet they managed to make the PlayStation 2 with a complete lack of competition.

Sega? Nintendo? Microsoft? You do realise that the PlayStation 2 didn't get created in a vacuum. Competition isn't the only thing that drives creative people. Inspiration, ideas and innovation are powerful too. That's how new things get invented.

Competition is what helps the money behind the inspiration focused.

Yeah guys a monopoly will always make sure the consumer has the best deal!

I mean look at cable companies, I'm right now with Time Warner Cable, paying over 100$ a month for Internet Access that is literally 3 times slower on the download and 5 times slower on the upload than I could get from a competitor(I'm talking about Verison, having Google Fiber is nothing but a dream at this point) for the same exact price.

Thank God my area has only 1 dominant cable internet provider leading the industry forward, the consumer benefits are just awesome!

Noone here is saying monopoly is a all good happy days. It just isn't always bad. Not if it still can stand the test of compitition. If we decided to outlaw other console makers after this gen it would be bad but literally anyone can create a console. And speaking of the state of internet in the United States, that's what you get without competition.
 

twobear

sputum-flecked apoplexy
fingers crossed getting consistently outsold by sony makes ms actually increase the value proposition of the xbone instead of just trying to wring more money out of their userbase
 

jcm

Member
I used your chart in a topic I made, but I was wondering if we had any way to compare how the transitions looked from PS2/Xbox/GCN/GBA -> 360/PS3/Wii/DS/PSP

Sorry, I don't have a full data set handy to graph. I think someone made one last month though. Maybe Road?
 

Freeman

Banned
Sega? Nintendo? Microsoft? You do realise that the PlayStation 2 didn't get created in a vacuum. Competition isn't the only thing that drives creative people. Inspiration, ideas and innovation are powerful too. That's how new things get invented.

Competition is what helps the money behind the inspiration focused.

There will allays be competition even after Sony, MS and Nintendo are long gone.
 

kinggroin

Banned
I think it's too early to be drawing strong conclusions from this NPD, just as it was too early last month to conclude that the PS4/Xbox One were going to ride a hot month in to glory and be the best selling systems of all time.

We just need more data. By March or April, we'll probably have a general shape of things.

kinggroin said:
Eh, I'm not going to argue further cause all we have is this tiny snapshot so far. A year of sales will give us a better picture,


:)


Its still fun trying to extrapolate as much as possible for the sake of discussion.
 

Opiate

Member
I think ~6 months is enough to at least have a reasonable idea of the shape of things. People have a tendency to both over and underestimate how much data we need to make projections. We'll have some people extrapolating from a month of sales, and then another person who insists on waiting 3 years before we can say for sure that X console is doing well or that Y console is failing.
 
I used your chart in a topic I made, but I was wondering if we had any way to compare how the transitions looked from PS2/Xbox/GCN/GBA -> 360/PS3/Wii/DS/PSP
Consoles were down ~20% in Jan 06, but up like 95% in Jan 07 Y/Y.

Handhelds were up ~15% in Jan 06, and up again ~25% over that in Jan 07. EDIT: 07 numbers not normalised for 5-week month.
I think ~6 months is enough to at least have a reasonable idea of the shape of things. People have a tendency to both over and underestimate how much data we need to make projections. We'll have some people extrapolating from a month of sales, and then another person who insists on waiting 3 years before we can say for sure that X console is doing well or that Y console is failing.
I think we'll have a reasonable idea by March really, although it's splitting hairs I guess between 5 months and 6. The Wii U's position was pretty obvious as early as February, even January was tell tale.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Ohhhhh I forgot too... January 2007 was a 5 weeks month.... that's make the PS4 sales even more impressive with just 4 weeks.
 

Drek

Member
That's an incredibly short sighted thing to say. For example, if MS price dropped to $299 then the competition would be ON. Of course they won't, but it's an illustration of how they could take it to Sony easily if they decided to throw money at the problem.

Nintendo are however pretty clearly playing in a different battle.

Competition would not be "on" if MS did that. Sony wouldn't be able to match. The Xbox One wouldn't suddenly become better hardware. MS wouldn't have gone back in time five years and chosen not to shutter the vast majority of their first party studios while letting Bungie walk out the door. It wouldn't change the fact that the Xbox One is inferior hardware designed around an always online, advertisers first consumers second paradigm.

MS would simply be attempting to bribe consumers with short term cash savings for an inferior product backed by an inferior business model and inferior long term service. That isn't competing and that kind of circumvention of good business practices is bad for the industry long term.
 

NHale

Member
I think it's too early to be drawing strong conclusions from this NPD, just as it was too early last month to conclude that the PS4/Xbox One were going to ride a hot month in to glory and be the best selling systems of all time.

We just need more data. By March or April, we'll probably have a general shape of things.

I believe we can see some early signs when the consoles are not supply constrained. That's when we will see the true demand and we don't know that yet about the PS4. Will it be able to sustain this reasonable demand? Not so sure about that.

And looking at the next 10 months I don't see any game that screams huge system seller which has to worry both Microsoft and Sony. Of course if Halo 5 launches this year that is a system seller. Uncharted 4 I don't see it as a big system seller. Destiny and Titanfall are PC+current-gen so not system sellers. COD, BF, sports games are current-gen games too.

I see a dark future for both consoles if they don't have a compelling reason for the mainstream to upgrade in the next 12 months.

That's an incredibly short sighted thing to say. For example, if MS price dropped to $299 then the competition would be ON. Of course they won't, but it's an illustration of how they could take it to Sony easily if they decided to throw money at the problem.

Nintendo are however pretty clearly playing in a different battle.

They could that but then they would give more ammo to those investors that already see the Xbox division as a diminishing return in the big scheme of things. Xbox is not competing only with Sony and Nintendo, it's also competing to those that own a part of Microsoft and only want huge profits in their portfolio.
 
What did Gamecube do in its 2nd Jan? I wanna see a continuation of that Dreamcast/Gamecube/Wii/WiiU chart!!

Edit - 81k ... so WiiU is tracking behind still.

Fuck.

Can't say I'm surprised at this point, though. It's been tracking behind for almost an entire year now. -_-
 

Drek

Member
Yeah guys a monopoly will always make sure the consumer has the best deal!
How would Sony have a monopoly? Selling nearly 130M PS2's didn't assure the PS3 of success did it? This is a cyclical market. Monopolies do not generally exist in cyclical markets.

I mean look at cable companies, I'm right now with Time Warner Cable, paying over 100$ a month for Internet Access that is literally 3 times slower on the download and 5 times slower on the upload than I could get from a competitor(I'm talking about Verison, having Google Fiber is nothing but a dream at this point) for the same exact price.
This isn't even remotely analogous. You allow your local government to sell your freedom of choice out from under you in exchange for their short term gain, but your long term loss. Those contracts are extensive in length and almost always renewed, whereas a console generation is comparatively short (5-10 years), allows for a complete reset, and has no gateway to simply buy out consumer choice like telecoms can.

Thank God my area has only 1 dominant cable internet provider leading the industry forward, the consumer benefits are just awesome!
Again, not analogous. Stop trying to act like this wildly off-base straw man is even remotely representative of a completely different market.
 

kyser73

Member
Correct, it was a corporation ran entirely by the hardware/R&D guys who did that. The very divisions they're now shedding to move towards a more straight media and services company with select hardware offerings.

Sony kept themselves in-check throughout the PS1 era and the PS2 era. It wasn't until Ken Kutaragi and the engineering side really got carte blanche that they delivered the PS3. Prior to that it was a very comparable hardware concept to the PS4 with PS1 (straight forward, focus on a few key aspects in 3D and optical storage) and while the PS2 was convoluted hardware it offered significantly more power per dollar than other alternatives at the time, gave great developer freedom in hardware implementation, and absolutely raced to a mainstream price point compared to all it's predecessors. It also included DVD without forcing a subsidy and was the generation where Sony tried creating a mid-tier software market with $40 first party releases.

The people responsible for the good parts of the PS2 (first party growth, 3rd party openness) now run the show (namely Kaz Hirai) and the people who designed the PS3 are pretty much all out the door. The corporate culture has done a complete 180, assuming they'll somehow backslide in a single generation when the company is really looking at a 10+ year climb back to being any kind of corporate power is pretty absurd.

I've been wanting to make this post on here for ages. Sony wouldn't be the first company to make the mistake of handing complete control over to its engineers who might be visionary, but maybe out of touch with commercial realities.
 

Spiegel

Member
Anyone has the LTD comparison between PSP and 3DS?
If I remember correctly 3DS was a few millions ahead at this point.

But looking at the monthly sales I'm not sure 3DS will outsell the PSP at the end ot its life. The sony handheld was pulling >200k during most of 2008 and it didn't go below 100k until April 2010.

I can't believe how badly the handheld market has shrunk.
 

Drek

Member
But as far as PS4 unit sales, the Wii was far worse in availability its first January (you can buy a PS4 in the first place), yet nearly doubled the PS4 number.
Sure, much larger initial shipment, much higher initial MSRP, and a more family friendly focus with good word of mouth. I don't think anyone is expecting a Wii phenomenon for the first 2-3 years of PS4. But having 70% of that sales rush and avoiding the back end plummet the Wii experienced (which the PS4 likely would as it is up to date hardware with full 3rd party support) is a better long term product.

I think we're going to see a much smaller, but far more core focused industry this go round. Expect the rise of B-tier budget and indie games, unleash publishers really are that stupid.
I don't think it'll be smaller, if you factor out the Wii buying casuals who've moved on to smart devices. I'd expect N.A. + E.U. + JP to be comparable or slightly larger than the PS2 era, with the majority of new growth coming from China, India, Brazil, eastern Europe, etc.. The emerging consumer markets.
 

FiggyCal

Banned
People should not compare these numbers with 2007 for a few reasons...

a) January 2007 consisted in 5 weeks, January 2014 consisted in 4 weeks
b) PS2 was its 7th January in USA, X360 is its 9th January and for Wii and PS3 its 8th
c) 7th gen sales were a lot larger than 6th gen
d) PS4 sold less than Wii in 2007 because it already sold A LOT MORE in November and December, there is just not enough stock to sell in January. Sony took January shipments to sell in December.
e) Xbox One sold less than X360 in 2006 for the same reason a "d"
f) Xbox 360 and Wii sold better than what Xbox and Gamecube sold at the launch of the next gen.


--
I stole this comment from --colafitte

I think people are way overreacting. Like I said way earlier-- the console market did not suddenly disappear from the record breaking launch of GTA5 in September to January.

It's also worth noting that Jan 2007 was 360's 3rd year-- so it is unfair to compare it to Xbox One's second. I'm not even saying that Xbox One would look better, but that the comparison might be flawed.
 
Fuck.

Can't say I'm surprised at this point, though. It's been tracking behind for almost an entire year now. -_-

2nd January:

Wii (January 2008): 274K
PSP (Janaury 2007): 211K
N64 (January 1998): 162K
Dreamcast (January 2001): 100K
GameCube (January 2003): 81K
Wii U (January 2014): 49K
Sega Saturn (January 1997): 26K
Vita (January 2014): <17K
 

Lexxism

Member
Anyone has the LTD comparison between PSP and 3DS?
If I remember correctly 3DS was a few millions ahead at this point.

Is this the one you were looking for?

portableltd_12qmq31.png


3DS 12th Q was 42.74
 

jcm

Member
Anyone has the LTD comparison between PSP and 3DS?
If I remember correctly 3DS was a few millions ahead at this point.

But looking at the monthly sales I'm not sure 3DS will outsell the PSP at the end ot its life. The sony handheld was pulling >200k during most of 2008 and it didn't go below 100k until April 2010.

I can't believe how badly the handheld market has shrink.

I don't have the LTD, but I have the monthlies:
Code:
        3DS 2013   PSP 2007   NDS 2007
January      145        211        239
February     189        176        485
March        230        180        509
April        113        183        471
May          114        221        423
June         225        290        561
July         150        214        405
August       130        151        383
September    220        285        496
October      452        286        458
November     770        567       1530
December    1100       1060       2470
            3838       3824       8430
                        
        3DS 2014   PSP 2008   NDS 2008
January       97        230        251
February                243        587
March                   297        698
April                   193        415
May                     182        452
June                    337        783
July                    222        608
August                  253        518
September               238        537
October                 193        491
November                421       1570
December               1020       3040
                97     3829       9950
 

driver116

Member
Correct, it was a corporation ran entirely by the hardware/R&D guys who did that. The very divisions they're now shedding to move towards a more straight media and services company with select hardware offerings.

Sony kept themselves in-check throughout the PS1 era and the PS2 era. It wasn't until Ken Kutaragi and the engineering side really got carte blanche that they delivered the PS3. Prior to that it was a very comparable hardware concept to the PS4 with PS1 (straight forward, focus on a few key aspects in 3D and optical storage) and while the PS2 was convoluted hardware it offered significantly more power per dollar than other alternatives at the time, gave great developer freedom in hardware implementation, and absolutely raced to a mainstream price point compared to all it's predecessors. It also included DVD without forcing a subsidy and was the generation where Sony tried creating a mid-tier software market with $40 first party releases.

The people responsible for the good parts of the PS2 (first party growth, 3rd party openness) now run the show (namely Kaz Hirai) and the people who designed the PS3 are pretty much all out the door. The corporate culture has done a complete 180, assuming they'll somehow backslide in a single generation when the company is really looking at a 10+ year climb back to being any kind of corporate power is pretty absurd.

QFT.

I remember some chatter a while ago where people basically predicted PlayStation would be dead this gen because Sony wouldn't get a grip over their technicians. Seems they're making all the right moves now.
 

wildfire

Banned
Again, not analogous. Stop trying to act like this wildly off-base straw man is even remotely representative of a completely different market.

It doesn't matter what the market is. It is a matter of self interest and generally once a business monopolizes a market they make moves that are less about creating value for the consumer and creating more profits for themselves. Read a history book or economics textbook. It's been recorded and observed for 100s of years how we act when we monopolize.

Modern companies like Google and Amazon who buck the trend in their own ways are only interpreting self interest in a different way. In the case of Amazon they don't care about structurally selling at a loss because by delivering on quality service they have grown rapidly as a company and see room to keep on growing as long as they can meet the demands of easy and fast deliveries and return claims.
Google sees that by avoiding abuse they can avoid unwanted regulations they didn't have to deal with before.
 
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