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[Mory Dunz]

Ocarina of Time vs. Wind Waker
Twilight Princess vs. Skyward Sword (install base was larger at this release)

I mean, it's not enough data for a conclusive correlation, but it's something to consider at least. Also "that audience" is the Ocarina/Twilight audience.

OoT had a larger install base in general, and especially in NA, and is considered one of the greatest games ever.
The Wii was dead when SS came out, and it needs motion + to play, right?

But you already said that it wasn't conclusive anyway, so no need to say more I guess.

In your comparisons, how come you didn't list
OoT3D vs ALBW? ALBW defintely had cartoonier aesthetic and is selling worse despite being completly new.

lol, now I'm making your argument for you.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Hmm, I'm actually kind of curious why the first parties haven't at least attempted annualisation to try an emulate AC and COD style success. Is it just internal resources are insufficient, is it a fear of franchise depreciation due to overexposure.

I'd guess resources. I think they'd do a COD or AC if they could since those haven't had significant depreciation yet.

 

[Mysterious]

Hmm, I'm actually kind of curious why the first parties haven't at least attempted annualisation to try an emulate AC and COD style success. Is it just internal resources are insufficient, is it a fear of franchise depreciation due to overexposure.

Nintendo's Super Mario, Microsoft's Forza and Sega's Sonic have attempted to do this.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

From shipment numbers, there are about 30 SCE published titles on the PS3 that have passed a million. One of those has shipped over 10 million, five have shipped over 5 million, three have shipped over 4 million, and eight of them have shipped between 2-4 million. The first party studios are fine for the most part, and the majority of the games released do well enough. The problem is more with some studios doing good numbers initially, but subsequent entries showing a strong decline or some projects not meeting expectations even if the number itself may not be that bad.

That, and franchise potential. It's not a good thing when you have a franchise that starts with a 3 million shipment for the initial entry, then the subsequent one decreases by about a million. That's basically that franchise headed in the wrong direction, and now you need to spend time and invest in something else. It's a combination of factors, and what's really wanted is franchises that can have future potential and consistently put up good numbers. That's why The Last of Us (strong future potential), Uncharted, God of War, and Gran Turismo are the only real big franchises. Their sequels will inevitably do big numbers for SCE. Little Big Planet is also great even with a decline in sales for the sequel because it makes a fair bit of money through the game anyway so it's been very successful. That's a bit of a different case though.

Then you see Assassins Creed, which is doing 5-10+ million yearly. That's the dream I imagine. Or Call of Duty, but that's like an almost impossible dream.

PS4 being the market leader should help a lot of the titles this time. PS3 had an uphill battle in that respect. Having said, all of these delays is kind of messing up schedules anyway.

It going to be interesting to see what type of boost Sony games going to get now that they the leading system again .
I know ISS had better first day numbers but i not certain if the IP has gotten bigger .

 

[CosmicQueso]

Hmm, I'm actually kind of curious why the first parties haven't at least attempted annualisation to try an emulate AC and COD style success. Is it just internal resources are insufficient, is it a fear of franchise depreciation due to overexposure.

maybe a much smaller % of annual income for first parties comes from software? Dunno. Take 2 hasn't annualized GTA and the stock can take the up and down while an atvi or ubi stock would probably be impacted more if income peaked and valleyed from year to year?

 

[SwiftDeath]

SwiftDeath do have PS2 NPD numbers for same time frame as PS4 sales so far ?
Wondering when they going to cross stream .

Sure PS2 launched in October 2000

2000

Oct - 391,000
Nov - 188,000
Dec - 522,000

2001

Jan - 248,000
Feb - 233,000
Mar - 547,000
Apr - 329,000
May - 281,000
June - 343,000
July - 352,000

PS2 2000 YTD - 1,101,000
PS2 2001 YTD through July - 2,333,000
PS2 2001 LTD through July - 3,434,000

PS4 2013 YTD - 1,998,000 [or 81% higher than PS2's comparable amount]
PS4 2014 YTD - 1,762,000 [or 24.5% lower than PS2's comparable amount]
PS4 2014 LTD through July - 3,760,000

LTD difference of ~ 326,000

Rest of 2001 looked like this for PS2

August - 322,000
September - 341,000
October - 329,000
November - 919,000
December - 1,971,000

So December at absolute latest?

I think my numbers are correct? Someone correct me if they're not

 

[theprodigy]

A Link Between Worlds did not, and will not, sell 5 million+ units.

well it's not like the Wii U version is gonna do it, so....

Sure PS2 launched in October 200

damn the Playstation brand is old

Hmm, I'm actually kind of curious why the first parties haven't at least attempted annualisation to try an emulate AC and COD style success. Is it just internal resources are insufficient, is it a fear of franchise depreciation due to overexposure.

What do you mean they haven't attempted it, Pokemon is practically there already!

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

Hmm, I'm actually kind of curious why the first parties haven't at least attempted annualisation to try an emulate AC and COD style success. Is it just internal resources are insufficient, is it a fear of franchise depreciation due to overexposure.

I strongly think that's a big part of it.

Also for some series that just isn't very possible. Nintendo can't make a Mario Galaxy every year, Sony can't make Uncharted annually, etc. Not unless they want budgets to balloon and the games to run a risk of "creative bankruptcy" (<-I literally could not think of a more appropriate term).

Sure PS2 launched in October 200

PS4's the return of Jesus?

 

[sörine]

Hmm, I'm actually kind of curious why the first parties haven't at least attempted annualisation to try an emulate AC and COD style success. Is it just internal resources are insufficient, is it a fear of franchise depreciation due to overexposure.

I'd guess the latter as well as wanting to give developers more time with their games. Sony had a lot of their studios on pretty consistent 2-3 year schedules last gen, and Nintendo and Microsoft also did the same in some cases.

Overexposure can happen easily even with the biggest franchises and really constrict sales potential. Nintendo's 2012 NSMB releases give a pretty good demonstration of that I think.

 

[SwiftDeath]

damn the Playstation brand is old

Damn it. The ironic thing is I had seen that typo but went to correct something else and it slipped my mind

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Sure PS2 launched in October 2000

2000

Oct - 391,000
Nov - 188,000
Dec - 522,000

2001

Jan - 248,000
Feb - 233,000
Mar - 547,000
Apr - 329,000
May - 281,000
June - 343,000
July - 352,000

PS2 2000 YTD - 1,101,000
PS2 2001 YTD through July - 2,333,000
PS2 2001 LTD through July - 3,434,000

PS4 2013 YTD - 1,998,000 [or 81% higher than PS2's comparable amount]
PS4 2014 YTD - 1,762,000 [or 24.5% lower than PS2's comparable amount]
PS4 2014 LTD through July - 3,760,000

LTD difference of ~ 326,000

Rest of 2001 looked like this for PS2

August - 322,000
September - 341,000
October - 329,000
November - 919,000
December - 1,971,000

So December at absolute latest?

I think my numbers are correct? Someone correct me if they're not

Interesting that means PS4 could cross streams with PS2 by maybe end of this year or early next year depending on holiday sales .

 

[Tomohawk]

Hmm, I'm actually kind of curious why the first parties haven't at least attempted annualisation to try an emulate AC and COD style success. Is it just internal resources are insufficient, is it a fear of franchise depreciation due to overexposure.

Halo sort of does this, but usually i think first parties benefit more from experimentation rather than putting all their eggs in one basket.
There could also be a correlation between frequency of release and system selling power.

 

[Verendus]

It going to be interesting to see what type of boost Sony games going to get now that they the leading system again .
I know ISS had better first day numbers but i not certain if the IP has gotten bigger .

I think Shadow Fall and Second Son will both end up being the best selling entries in their franchises. I agree in regards to the IP getting bigger being questionable simply because these games came where they did because it would benefit them most (and because they'd realistically be the ones ready on time). I don't think another Killzone is going to do better than Shadow Fall for example. I'm quite confident it probably wouldn't.

It doesn't matter that much anyway since pretty much every studio is getting a shot at a new property. So we're back to the beginning in a way with the chance of some games hitting it big, some maybe not. The real problem now is delays everywhere. Some of these games may be hurt by that, others may not. Probably the main game that benefits from its historic delay is The Last Guardian. That's going to do a hell of a lot better than it would have on the PS3.

 

[vinnygambini]

What do you mean they haven't attempted it, Pokemon is practically there already!

With Pokken in 2015

 

[metalslimer]

Yeah Pokemon is basically a yearly franchise at this point with since some kind of new product has released yearly (in NA at least) since 2009

2009- Platinum
2010- Heart Gold/ Soul Silver
2011- Black/White
2012- Black2/White 2
2013- X/Y
2014- OR/AS

I'm sure 2015 will probably see a new entry in the X/Y series as well. It doesn't seem like any Pokemon will reach the 20 million mark anytime soon, but it doesn't seem to have badly affected the franchise. It's kind of weird remembering that huge gap between Ruby/Sapphire and Diamond/Pearl now.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Probably the main game that benefits from its historic delay is The Last Guardian. That's going to do a hell of a lot better than it would have on the PS3.

No, Verendus. Just no. My heart can't take it.

 

[Mysterious]

Yeah Pokemon is basically a yearly franchise at this point with since some kind of new product has released yearly (in NA at least) since 2009

2009- Platinum
2010- Heart Gold/ Soul Silver
2011- Black/White
2012- Black2/White 2
2013- X/Y
2014- OR/AS

I'm sure 2015 will probably see a new entry in the X/Y series as well. It doesn't seem like any Pokemon will reach the 20 million mark anytime soon, but it doesn't seem to have badly affected the franchise. It's kind of weird remembering that huge gap between Ruby/Sapphire and Diamond/Pearl now.

What huge gap?

 

[vinnygambini]

Yeah Pokemon is basically a yearly franchise at this point with since some kind of new product has released yearly (in NA at least) since 2009

2009- Platinum
2010- Heart Gold/ Soul Silver
2011- Black/White
2012- Black2/White 2
2013- X/Y
2014- OR/AS

I'm sure 2015 will probably see a new entry in the X/Y series as well. It doesn't seem like any Pokemon will reach the 20 million mark anytime soon, but it doesn't seem to have badly affected the franchise. It's kind of weird remembering that huge gap between Ruby/Sapphire and Diamond/Pearl now.

Ì'm banking on Pokken (Wii U with amiibo connectivity) and the equivalent of Pokemon Emerald for the XY series in 2015 (3DS).

 

[metalslimer]

I think Shadow Fall and Second Son will both end up being the best selling entries in their franchises. I agree in regards to the IP getting bigger being questionable simply because these games came where they did because it would benefit them most (and because they'd realistically be the ones ready on time). I don't think another Killzone is going to do better than Shadow Fall for example. I'm quite confident it probably wouldn't.

It doesn't matter that much anyway since pretty much every studio is getting a shot at a new property. So we're back to the beginning in a way with the chance of some games hitting it big, some maybe not. The real problem now is delays everywhere. Some of these games may be hurt by that, others may not. Probably the main game that benefits from its historic delay is The Last Guardian. That's going to do a hell of a lot better than it would have on the PS3.

This is definitely my favorite thing about Sony.

 

[ascii42]

damn the Playstation brand is old

Must have been over 1800 FIFA games for the PS2.

 

[Tomohawk]

Ì'm banking on Pokken (Wii U with amiibo connectivity) and the equivalent of Pokemon Emerald for the XY series in 2015 (3DS).

What if amiibo takes off and nintendo decides to make amiibos for all 700+ pokemon.

 

[Verendus]

No, Verendus. Just no. My heart can't take it.

But seriously, it would be hilarious if TLG got another delay. Not that people would realise if it did anyway, but it would be soul-crushing.

 

[SwiftDeath]

But seriously, it would be hilarious if TLG got another delay. Not that people would realise if it did anyway, but it would be soul-crushing.

There are no more souls to crush :'(

 

[Amir0x]

But seriously, it would be hilarious if TLG got another delay. Not that people would realise if it did anyway, but it would be soul-crushing.

what happened to Yakuza PS4 US version Verendus? what happened to it?

 

[Verendus]

There are no more souls to crush :'(

Think of it like this, Naughty Dog, Polyphony, SSM and even Ready At Dawn have all had setbacks. TLG is doing fine right now. Most of SCEJA is really. That's one positive for you.

what happened to Yakuza PS4 US version Verendus? what happened to it?

I'm gonna have to refer to my Square Enix gifted handbook on this one Amir0x. None of the options presented seem to fit though.

But give it time. Yakuza PS4 will happen.

 

[vinnygambini]

What if amiibo takes off and nintendo decides to make amiibos for all 700+ pokemon.

The decision lies solely on The Pokemon Company. If Pokken is indeed built solely around amiibo, one will most likely see a roster of 16-20 Pokémon characters at launch, with expansion packs down the line. We ain't going to see no Magikarp amiibo.

 

[ascii42]

We ain't going to see no Magikarp amiibo.

Why even bother, then?

 

[prwxv3]

Think of it like this, Naughty Dog, Polyphony, SSM and even Ready At Dawn have all had setbacks. TLG is doing fine right now. Most of SCEJA is really. That's one positive for you.

Am I in bizzaro world.?

 

[Nirolak]

Hmm, I'm actually kind of curious why the first parties haven't at least attempted annualisation to try an emulate AC and COD style success. Is it just internal resources are insufficient, is it a fear of franchise depreciation due to overexposure.

Well, Nintendo was putting out annual Mario platformers for a while and Microsoft tries to ship out Halo games on an annual basis even if they're not mainline games.

That said, I suspect it's a resources issue and a concern about getting enough breadth in their line-up. Ubisoft and Activision don't put out a lot of games per year.

 

[theprodigy]

man, looking back at older NPD threads, I noticed the 360 didn't really start pulling away from the PS3 until later on, also those Wii/DS sales reactions are absolutely hilarious

 

[Amir0x]

I'm gonna have to refer to my Square Enix gifted handbook on this one Amir0x.

None of the options presented seem to fit though.

Argh! *kicks a door*

 

[Welfare]

man, looking back at older NPD threads, I noticed the 360 didn't really start pulling away from the PS3 until later on, also those Wii/DS sales reactions are absolutely hilarious

Looking back at those numbers, I still look at them like "Really?!" Don't think we'll get those reactions this gen.

 

[metalslimer]

Looking back at those numbers, I still look at them like "Really?!" Don't think we'll get those reactions this gen.

I really hope we do. I hope the PS4 manages to take off with Destiny's release. I don't think either of these systems can hit the mainstream until 299 though.

 

[sörine]

Well, Nintendo was putting out annual Mario platformers for a while and Microsoft tries to ship out Halo games on an annual basis even if they're not mainline games.

That said, I suspect it's a resources issue and a concern about getting enough breadth in their line-up. Ubisoft and Activision don't put out a lot of games per year.

I never realized it but Mario has come really close to annual the past decade.

2006: New Super Mario Bros.
2007: Super Mario Galaxy
2008: X
2009: New Super Mario Bros. Wii
2010: Super Mario Galaxy 2
2011: Super Mario 3D Land
2012: New Super Mario Bros. 2, New Super Mario Bros. U
2013: New Super Luigi U, Super Mario 3D World
2014: X

Being in two different styles likely helps with preventing oversaturation but not when the same style launches close together (like in 2012).

 

[joecanada]

You seem to be following the misconception. Halo and Gears are the only 5m+ sellers that MS has. Forza gets bunched into the Halo/Gears/Forza group, but it doesn't sell as well as those games.

Not only that but when you only make halo gears forza of course they are going to sell alot.. Now pull up a list of all million plus sony games and you will see that fps are only a small part of sony legacy. It's not concerning at all for killzone to not outsell halo when you are still bringing gow, uc, gt, and whatever the order, tlou, h1z1 and others in between

 

[Verendus]

I never realized it but Mario has come really close to annual the past decade.

2006: New Super Mario Bros.
2007: Super Mario Galaxy
2008: X
2009: New Super Mario Bros. Wii
2010: Super Mario Galaxy 2
2011: Super Mario 3D Land
2012: New Super Mario Bros. 2, New Super Mario Bros. U
2013: New Super Luigi U, Super Mario 3D World
2014: X

Being in two different styles likely helps with preventing oversaturation but not when the same style launches close together (like in 2012).

They seriously did this? I thought NSMBU was NSMB2.

 

[Bluth54]

They seriously did this? I thought NSMBU was NSMB2.

NSMB2 was for 3DS.

 

[Dire]

From shipment numbers, there are about 30 SCE published titles on the PS3 that have passed a million. One of those has shipped over 10 million, five have shipped over 5 million, three have shipped over 4 million, and eight of them have shipped between 2-4 million. The first party studios are fine for the most part, and the majority of the games released do well enough. The problem is more with some studios doing good numbers initially, but subsequent entries showing a strong decline or some projects not meeting expectations even if the number itself may not be that bad.

That, and franchise potential. It's not a good thing when you have a franchise that starts with a 3 million shipment for the initial entry, then the subsequent one decreases by about a million. That's basically that franchise headed in the wrong direction, and now you need to spend time and invest in something else. It's a combination of factors, and what's really wanted is franchises that can have future potential and consistently put up good numbers. That's why The Last of Us (strong future potential), Uncharted, God of War, and Gran Turismo are the only real big franchises. Their sequels will inevitably do big numbers for SCE. Little Big Planet is also great even with a decline in sales for the sequel because it makes a fair bit of money through the game anyway so it's been very successful. That's a bit of a different case though.

Then you see Assassins Creed, which is doing 5-10+ million yearly. That's the dream I imagine. Or Call of Duty, but that's like an almost impossible dream.

PS4 being the market leader should help a lot of the titles this time. PS3 had an uphill battle in that respect. Having said, all of these delays is kind of messing up schedules anyway.

I haven't searched for any sort of Assassin's Creeds figures, but CoD is following the exact same pattern you're describing. They're losing more customers than many new games end up with in total. That's being masked by the fact of that previous statement. Their bump into success was so enormous that discussing the decline of CoD probably sounds amusing when we're talking about a franchise that's still selling in the ballpark of 20million units. I don't think Activision being willing to drop half a billion on a new franchise that they know will cannibalize from the CoD market was a random whim.

I think an ironic problem with many sequels is that they're trying to deal with exactly what you're mentioning. They try to maintain the same userbase and attract even new players, yet in the process they end up alienating former players without really bringing in new players. The games that seem to do the best are the ones that stay true to themselves. They're the same game but incrementally improved instead of reinvisioned. Dragon Age 2 is the obvious example of a disaster along the lines of the former. In a way I think even Dark Souls 2 suffered from the same. From what I've read people are stating it still keeps what made part 1 unique, yet they lost a sell from me at least due to the very confusing marketing talk that implied the game was going to be stuck under the guillotine of soul, named mass appeal. Fool me once and all that - I think most people know what "mass appeal" translates to now a days.

 

[Tomohawk]

But seriously, it would be hilarious if TLG got another delay. Not that people would realise if it did anyway, but it would be soul-crushing.

What would be soul crushing is if The Last Guardian came out and it was garbage.

 

[Llamadeus]

Hmm, I'm actually kind of curious why the first parties haven't at least attempted annualisation to try an emulate AC and COD style success. Is it just internal resources are insufficient, is it a fear of franchise depreciation due to overexposure.

Microsoft sort of tried this with Halo last gen. I remember Halo 3, Halo Wars, Halo 3 ODST, and Halo Reach all coming out almost a year apart. Halo Wars is the exception came out in early 2009.

 

[Aquamarine]

I haven't searched for any sort of Assassin's Creeds figures, but CoD is following the exact same pattern you're describing. They're losing more customers than many new games end up with in total. That's being masked by the fact of that previous statement. Their bump into success was so enormous that discussing the decline of CoD probably sounds amusing when we're talking about a franchise that's still selling in the ballpark of 20million units. I don't think Activision being willing to drop half a billion on a new franchise that they know will cannibalize from the CoD market was a random whim.

I think an ironic problem with many sequels is that they're trying to deal with exactly what you're mentioning. They try to maintain the same userbase and attract even new players, yet in the process they end up alienating former players without really bringing in new players. The games that seem to do the best are the ones that stay true to themselves. They're the same game but incrementally improved instead of reinvisioned. Dragon Age 2 is the obvious example of a disaster along the lines of the former. In a way I think even Dark Souls 2 suffered from the same. From what I've read people are stating it still keeps what made part 1 unique, yet they lost a sell from me at least due to the very confusing marketing talk that implied the game was going to be stuck under the guillotine of soul, named mass appeal. Fool me once and all that - I think most people know what "mass appeal" translates to now a days.

In NPD data, COD Ghosts has been like -30% down from COD Black Ops 2 in the equivalent time period.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Lots of interesting responses.

Nintendo's Super Mario, Microsoft's Forza and Sega's Sonic have attempted to do this.

Hmm, Forza is biannual really, although the introduction of the Horizon spin-off could be considered I suppose. With Nintendo, it's more of an alternation between their platforms, I think? And different franchises with the Mario brand?

maybe a much smaller % of annual income for first parties comes from software? Dunno. Take 2 hasn't annualized GTA and the stock can take the up and down while an atvi or ubi stock would probably be impacted more if income peaked and valleyed from year to year?

Hadn't thought of it that way. Interesting.

I guess that could be seen as why Nintendo is more prone to annualisation to a degree, as their business is essentially still solely gaming and it provides more stability to future income for investors. In that regard, they're probably a lot more similar to third party publishers than Sony or Microsoft. The % of income first party generates relative to third is probably substantially lower for Sony/Microsoft, and further to that the income is probably dwarfed by other business lines like financial services for the former and obviously enterprise and OS for the latter.

What do you mean they haven't attempted it, Pokemon is practically there already!

Was thinking more in terms of home systems.

Regarding overexposure, Ubisoft and Activision to an extent seem to have been able to avoid too much of that so far. They've dipped away from their peaks, but that could just be generational fatigue setting in; we'll get a feel of the sustainability of the franchises going forward with this and next year's entries I guess.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

Agree 100%. The PS4 is selling amazingly well for the current climate the videogame industry is now in. I get annoyed when some people (not you) seem to dismiss the Wii and say "it's selling as well or better than Wii" without knowing the real hard sales figures.

It is worrying though that since we are basically in a two-horse race now and many years later, why haven't we increased sales? Roughly 18 million home consoles were sold in 2008, across the big 3. Has the market shrunk that much? Can the PS4 and XB1 carry things? Where have all those console gamers gone to?

The Wii was completely sui generis. We can't just compare seventh generation to eighth generation and declare the market has shrunk. Add sixth generation to the mix and the situation becomes clearer, IMO.

The sixth generation represents the pre-Wii norm: core gamers and a shrinking "Nintendo core." The seventh generation represents the pre-Wii norm with an anomalous influx of non-gamers who then disappeared because really it didn't make sense for them to be buying dedicated gaming computers in the first place. The eighth generation is back to the pre-Wii norm, either larger or smaller than it was during the sixth generation (at the moment it seems larger).

So I take issue with the idea that the PS4 is selling well "for the current climate of the industry." The industry is fine (at least in terms of sales, obviously not in terms of development costs). That's why the PS4 is selling well. The disappearance of the Wii's audience doesn't mean the market has shrunk because the Wii's audience was basically a separate market all along.

The eighth generation to me looks a lot healthier than the seventh was at this stage in the cycle: the PS4 and Xbone have both sold extremely well by historical standards (helped along by lack of supply constraints, of course, but I'm not sure that's enough to explain away their performance). The Nintendo core that began shrinking with the N64 is almost gone, as someone would have predicted looking at the state of the market in the sixth generation - it's almost like the Wii never happened.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Harker, is DK #4 after the 3 Mario titles atm? Or is that like Nintendo Land or something?

 

[freefornow]

Still no TLoU RM numbers? I've always been impressed with Gafs ability to get close to an actual number. The Titanfall calculations were phenomenal.
Seems like the trail has gone cold.
Creamsugar gave us >100k, but there has been no other number put foreward. Only an analyst who claims that it was 50k below his expectations (what number that was, who knows)

 

[sörine]

Did we ever get a 3DS number?

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Hmm, I'm actually kind of curious why the first parties haven't at least attempted annualisation to try an emulate AC and COD style success. Is it just internal resources are insufficient, is it a fear of franchise depreciation due to overexposure.

I don't necessarily think it's in Sony's best interests to try and produce yearly titles like the major third party publishers do. Sony is trying to push hardware sales by having a diverse lineup. Third parties provide some level of diversity, but many of them are rather conservative with the AAA approach.

Sony receives revenue from third party royalties, PS+, and media from the Playstation store, so in order to be a successful platform they don't need their first parties to be hugely profitable with massive teams that churn out safe multi-million sellers.

Their studios are much smaller in comparison, take longer to develop their titles, but also tend to (in my view) be of higher quality when they do release, and provide something different from what the third parties offer. In this respect, their games are differentiators that attract people to the platform.

That being said, having a Naughty Dog game release every two years that goes on to sell 5+ million seems to be the ideal sales target and schedule cycle for their bigger first party studios. Not all of them will be able to achieve it, due to being smaller studios, but they should aim to emulate their success on a smaller level with studios like Sucker Punch and Guerrilla Games.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Did we ever get a 3DS number?

Not that I've seen thus far

 

[lyrick]

The Wii was completely sui generis. We can't just compare seventh generation to eighth generation and declare the market has shrunk. Add sixth generation to the mix and the situation becomes clearer, IMO.

The sixth generation represents the pre-Wii norm: core gamers and a shrinking "Nintendo core." The seventh generation represents the pre-Wii norm with an anomalous influx of non-gamers who then disappeared because really it didn't make sense for them to be buying dedicated gaming computers in the first place. The eighth generation is back to the pre-Wii norm, either larger or smaller than it was during the sixth generation (at the moment it seems larger).

So I take issue with the idea that the PS4 is selling well "for the current climate of the industry." The industry is fine (at least in terms of sales, obviously not in terms of development costs). That's why the PS4 is selling well. The disappearance of the Wii's audience doesn't mean the market has shrunk because the Wii's audience was basically a separate market all along.

The eighth generation to me looks a lot healthier than the seventh was at this stage in the cycle: the PS4 and Xbone have both sold extremely well by historical standards (helped along by lack of supply constraints, of course, but I'm not sure that's enough to explain away their performance). The Nintendo core that began shrinking with the N64 is almost gone, as someone would have predicted looking at the state of the market in the sixth generation - it's almost like the Wii never happened.

This doesn't makes sense and never will. The Wii wasn't some magical outsider to the industry as some would like to pretend. It did pick up an expanded audience, but the core was mixed in there too.

What do you think happened to the millions of "core" gamers that Accounted for over ten million worth of sales for games like Mario Galaxy and Smash Bros or the players of the 20 -30 million copies of New Super Mario Bros or Mario Kart Wii?

My guess is that after 7+ years they probably picked up other platforms too and are still part of the gaming ecosystem in some way or another.

 

[theprodigy]

Stumpokapow, in the December 2009 NPD thread:

The quality scale for sales discussion on the internet:
GAF MC threads on regular weeks >
GAF MC threads on bad weeks >
GAF NPD threads on regular months >
"Orbital" GAF sales age threads--publisher sales claims, discussions on million sellers, PR pissing matches >
GAF NPD threads on spectacular months >
Sales discussion anywhere else on the internet.

PAL charts are so lame they don't even get an appearance on the scale, funny how accurate this still is

also it's been over 24 hours and we haven't gotten a 3DS number? when's the last time it's taken that long