I know a lot of you went with Bayo 2, but I think everybody, even Nintendo, has tempered expectations for this title sales-wise. It will either be just within their forecast or a surprise hit for them. I'll go with the opposite and say that Bayonetta 2 will be the surprise hit of the year. Not gazillion-levels in terms of sales numbers of course, but more than the usual Platinum sales to make the developers happy. Just my gut feel.
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Predict the biggest gaming bomb of Fall 2014
- Thread starter ……forgetit
- Start date
Lord of Castamere
Member
I think people are underestimating the power of a licensed title. I don't think SoM would have an issue breaking even with average reviews, let alone with praise it's likey to get. Also with Hobbit 3 in Dec it'll probably have legs that will carry it into Early Spring.
Muskieratboi
Member
Shadow of Mordor and Evil Within. My definition of Bomba is an overhyped game that just doesn't deliver, and will be heavily discounted not 6 months from release.
Bayo2 won't sell very much in the grand scheme of things, but it'll do great compared to other Nintendo titles.
Bayo2 won't sell very much in the grand scheme of things, but it'll do great compared to other Nintendo titles.
The genre has declined a lot since then. Its only NFS and MK that still bring in the numbers.
RyanPierre
Member
I don't think their goal is really to market this title to hardcore gamers, so it makes sense to me that the promotion of the game to a more casual audience would start closer to release in avenues that the target audience is more likely to see it. I would expect it to be plugged on a number of talk shows / morning shows to target the "mom" demographic - especially those on ABC (owned by Disney). Also, I'd assume they'd be pushing it to kids on the Disney channel as well.
Microsoft has shipped over 29 million Kinects, so I don't think the install base is a huge problem. I think their task is ultimately in convincing current Kinect owners to dust them off and give the game a shot. A free demo would go a long way I think, but I don't know if that's part of their plan. I think word of mouth is also going to be critical for a game like this, where the gameplay/appeal is not immediately obvious without playing it for yourself. Word of mouth was crucial to the success of the new concept of plastic guitars in homes with the original Guitar Hero.
JohnnyFootball
GerAlt-Right. Ciriously.
Borderlands PreSequel will be the biggest fail.
I think anyone who mentions an MMO like the Crew needs to clarify what they mean by Bomba. Do they mean:
Box Sales Bomba
or
Poor retention rate after X months Bomba.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
Sunset Overdrive. Microsoft seems to be too busy convincing people Destiny isn't exclusive on PS3/PS4 that they forgot about their own exclusive.
The crew that game just looks horrible.
The crew that game just looks horrible.
Semantic Continuum
Member
Piling on Bayo 2. I don't see the game even selling as well as W101 : you can't sell it to kids, fans from the first one are still raging and will probably never buy a WiiU for that, the install base is not THAT much bigger, I just can't see what kind of demographic it's going to hit. The jaded 90's gamer with a Mario addiction ?
And Bayo2 can't possibly be cheap if it's as long as the first one. It's most likely several mil in budget.
Plus the ol' Clover curse.
And Bayo2 can't possibly be cheap if it's as long as the first one. It's most likely several mil in budget.
Plus the ol' Clover curse.
ArkkAngel007
Member
There have been non-positive previews of Alien Isolation?
Some people said it was a bit difficult to their tastes and wonder how much variety will be in the game in regards to the stuff that hasn't been shown, but I haven't seen various articles coming away with mixed impressions.
As for my pick that isn't Bayonetta 2 or Lords of Fallen, I'll go with Middle Earth:Shadows of Mordor unless some big marketing campaign swings up. The Evil Within and Alien Isolation I feel will perform fairly well in respect to what they are.
The Crew doesn't seem to be much like Test Drive Unlimited at all. Did I miss some modes or something? The Forza Horizon series seems to be the closest we've gotten to a TD:U since.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
It's getting it's own exclusive white X1 system bundle. How is that forgetting?
BlackBuzzard
Banned
Seemed to have a very small presence at Gamescom besides the bundle.
I hope so. I've had my pre-order paid off for months. Unfortunately for most of my friends that really want to play this game, they can't afford a Wii U. I know that may sound foreign to some people here, but my best friend who is the biggest bayonetta fan is still rocking the PS3 only setup. If he took better care of the stuff I'd just let him borrow mine.
Regardless, I hope that Bayonetta 2 sells really well.
Like many others in the thread, I think games like Shadow of Mordor, The Crew, NHL 15, Borderlands: The Pre-sequel, Sleeping Dogs Definitive Edition, and Dragon Age: Inquisition will all have soft sales. Maybe Alien Isolation too, but I really have no idea about that one.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
I expect the usual Microsoft marketing blitz when the game is closer to release. It's a pretty big exclusive for them.
Alcoholikaust
Member
Shadow Warrior or Sleeping Dogs
edit^ Hardline slipped to 2015.
edit^ Hardline slipped to 2015.
SerTapTap
Member
I forgot Fantasia even existed. I change my answer to that. Probably less sales than Sports Rivals which was apparently also a flop.
Shadow Warrior is known to be of quality though, and their expectations probably aren't super high. Probably digital only after all?
Shadow Warrior is known to be of quality though, and their expectations probably aren't super high. Probably digital only after all?
Clear
CliffyB's Cock Holster
If I was working on The Crew, I'd be begging Ubi not to release it for at least another 6 months, maybe longer. There are too many driving titles in the fall/holiday window for them all to succeed, the market for that type of game simply isn't large enough to support it.
JetSetRadio
Banned
bayo 2
pes
pes
twothunder
Member
Yeah. I highly doubt Nintendo has any big expectations for Bayo 2. Certainly not after Wonderful 101.
SkylineRKR
Member
It doesn't make sense on many levels. Not only because other driving titles will be released, but also because Ubi is going to release Unity about simultanously. They also did this with PoP, XIII and BGE and we know how that went. I think The Crew would be better off as a Spring 2015 release.
I don't think Evil Within is going to bomb. It's a niche game with a small but loyal fan base that's going to buy the game no matter what. Of course, 'bomb' would have to be defined as a game that does not recoup costs, so it all hinges on what the development costs for this one is.
Shadow of Mordor, on the other hand, seems more likely to bomb in my opinion. It's a shame too because it looks good. I don't know, but there's just not enough buzz sorrounding the game.
Shadow of Mordor, on the other hand, seems more likely to bomb in my opinion. It's a shame too because it looks good. I don't know, but there's just not enough buzz sorrounding the game.
I don't think Bayonetta 2 will meet sales expectations from Platinum and Nintendo. It doesn't help that a lot of Wii U owners have already overlooked buying several good exclusives in the past, but the Japanese home console market has gone to hell, so they're not going to be very supportive of the game, Europe doesn't seem to care about Wii U at all , and then there's steep competition in North America with the rest of the holiday lineup full of multiplatform games coming out on 4-5 other platforms as well as Smash Bros. Bayonetta 2 is going to need a miracle to make it on to the top 10 NPD chart.
Capt Toad will bomb. It looks fun, but its just going to be buried in the holiday lineup ,and Wii U owners will just be buying Smash Bros at the end of the year. Nintendo also has yet to really do much to promote the game, and it will take more than Nintendo Directs to help it out.
Capt Toad will bomb. It looks fun, but its just going to be buried in the holiday lineup ,and Wii U owners will just be buying Smash Bros at the end of the year. Nintendo also has yet to really do much to promote the game, and it will take more than Nintendo Directs to help it out.
Assassin's Creed: Rogue
It just has far less marketing going on than anything else and barely exists. Ubisoft has been pushing Unity hardcore and now they're both out on the same day to boot.
Either that or Borderlands: the Pre-Sequel. Last gen only game that people don't exactly seem exited for being released amongst a storm of big new titles.
Another thing is - I don't think games like The Evil Within and Bayonetta 2 have huge sales expectations. They're not going to sell huge, but I think they'll hit their marks with sales. So if they don't sell massively I don't think you could consider that "bombing" unless they just sell nothing at all. Some of the other games games on the other hand likely have very big sales targets. Either way - they'll be fairly *small* bombs and probably not the *biggest* bomb of the season.
It just has far less marketing going on than anything else and barely exists. Ubisoft has been pushing Unity hardcore and now they're both out on the same day to boot.
Either that or Borderlands: the Pre-Sequel. Last gen only game that people don't exactly seem exited for being released amongst a storm of big new titles.
Another thing is - I don't think games like The Evil Within and Bayonetta 2 have huge sales expectations. They're not going to sell huge, but I think they'll hit their marks with sales. So if they don't sell massively I don't think you could consider that "bombing" unless they just sell nothing at all. Some of the other games games on the other hand likely have very big sales targets. Either way - they'll be fairly *small* bombs and probably not the *biggest* bomb of the season.
hersheyfan
Member
Im pulling for Shadow of Mordor or Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel.
The first has a horribly timed release date, and the second feels like a cynical Pitchford cash grab...
I actually am pretty curious about SoM, having read some glowing playtests, but Borderlands 1.5 I wouldnt buy even for 20$.
The first has a horribly timed release date, and the second feels like a cynical Pitchford cash grab...
I actually am pretty curious about SoM, having read some glowing playtests, but Borderlands 1.5 I wouldnt buy even for 20$.
This is exactly what I was going to post. The budget of the game should be pretty high, If it don't sell remarkably well BioWare will be in trouble.
sublimit
Banned
Box sales bomba. There's currently zero hype for this game.No one seems to be talking about it and it comes out in a few months.
Slammin_Hammon
Member
The Crew seems like the one destined to fail. It hasn't gotten much publicity and it comes out close to Forza Horizon 2, Driveclub, and Project Cars.
DagnastyEp
Member
-With Bayo 2 and Hyrule Warriors, Nintendo are expecting niche crowds to buy those games, so they expect low numbers, 400-500k are enough for call them success.
-Sunset Overdrive goes the same way, but the budget is higher, and they are doing a lot of marketing. They might expect a 2-3 million of copies and they might not make it. It might bomb, but not as anyone expect.
-The Evil Within will sell a good amount of copies, might not bomb, same as Mordor.
-The Crew will be the big bomba of 2014, Ubisoft threw the game to die on the month where every big game is there (CoD, AC, Halo, Pokemon, Dragon Age, Far Cry, GTA and Smash)
-Sunset Overdrive goes the same way, but the budget is higher, and they are doing a lot of marketing. They might expect a 2-3 million of copies and they might not make it. It might bomb, but not as anyone expect.
-The Evil Within will sell a good amount of copies, might not bomb, same as Mordor.
-The Crew will be the big bomba of 2014, Ubisoft threw the game to die on the month where every big game is there (CoD, AC, Halo, Pokemon, Dragon Age, Far Cry, GTA and Smash)
Since (as far as I can see) The Crew doesn't have any monthly subscription associated with it (or any F2P model that requires constant microtransaction based payments), it is entirely irrelevant whether the retention rate is high or not.
If a shooter sells 10 million copies but the online is dead after a month, the company only cares insomuch that they know their multiplayer isn't sticky enough. It may bode negatively for sales of sequels, but the money has already been made.
Having a huge, consistent multiplayer fan base also doesn't guarantee future sales. Those consumers may be too invested in what they know to move on to a new game (though, to be honest, that is rare).
I can also admit that having a short tail of a user base limits DLC potential, but if your game sells 10 million copies, it's unlikely they care. DLC for most games sells to less than 5% of the user base as it is (outside of notable exceptions), so the people still playing your game when the lobbies have shrunk to 1% of sales are also the most likely to buy the DLC.
its too early to market sunset.
Ivory Samoan
Gold Member
Yep, my thoughts exactly... let's not bomba Shadow of Mordor before it's even out the gate...
Masterbrew
Member
Agreed, not really that turned on by the trailers of DA:I.
Triggerhappytel
Member
Oh, I was watching some stuff on YouTube and remembered Escape Dead Island. That's gonna sink like a mafia informant wearing concrete boots.