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[HaterIsHating]

Wall Street is all about expectations.

This.

You can't really argue with actual sales numbers, because no one really knows the consensus of expected sales numbers. All we know (now) is that expectations were higher than actual sales numbers.

 

[LegendofLex]

I'm not stock guy, but that seems a really disingenuous appraisal of what they have sent out and or lost. The stock is worth that in sales, but it is not actually worth that in the sense that it cost them anything like that to manufacture and put on shelves.

Right, but the degree to which retailers recognize the game overshipped could translate to lost revenues from lower sales to retailers next time around.

 

[Duxxy3]

I'm not stock guy, but that seems a really disingenuous appraisal of what they have sent out and or lost. The stock is worth that in sales, but it is not actually worth that in the sense that it cost them anything like that to manufacture and put on shelves.

Maybe that's how it's normally done, but it seems wrong to do it that way to me.

Stocks are all about expectations and growth.

 

[Spottiettiedop]

Their timing was not that good, actually.

Destiny could easily cannibalize a slice of the COD sales.

It could but it won't matter. COD is not competing against Battlefield this holiday season

 

[MotherFan]

I'm not stock guy, but that seems a really disingenuous appraisal of what they have sent out and or lost. The stock is worth that in sales, but it is not actually worth that in the sense that it cost them anything like that to manufacture and put on shelves.

Maybe that's how it's normally done, but it seems wrong to do it that way to me.

With game releases, the value of the stock will have already been affected by how the investors believe the game will do. They have had alot of time to buy the stock in anticipation. This is why you don't have absurd increases right after a large game has been released and matches expectations. You have stock changes after a release when the game exceeds or under performs expectations.

In this case, investors expected it to sell more. The fact that it would sell alot and maybe even be a very strong IP was already built in to the stock by release day.

 

[maabus1999]

I think you give investors (many of whom don't even manage their own portfolios) too much credit. I guarantee you that many of the investors who sold their shares don't care about Destiny at all. They saw that the stock hit an all-time high a few days ago, and decided to sell and cash. One of the reasons why you can't accurately predict the market all the time is because you can't predict every investor's motivation.

Yes. Professional investors don't track the most expensive IP activision has ever created. Your mom and pop investors don't make up a noticeable volume to affect stock price. Unless your tesla...

 

[Sirim]

IF you were really a finance nut, you would now investor overreacting when things don't meet expectation is normal.

Isn't that exactly what he said?

 

[Heart of Black]

Shareholders are stupid sheep who deserve to exist in a circle of hell full of fecal matter storms, buried up to their necks in said fecal matter.

 

[vinnygambini]

I'm not stock guy, but that seems a really disingenuous appraisal of what they have sent out and or lost. The stock is worth that in sales, but it is not actually worth that in the sense that it cost them anything like that to manufacture and put on shelves.

Maybe that's how it's normally done, but it seems wrong to do it that way to me.

On launch day:

Activision Blizzard, Inc. announced today that the company sold more than $500 million of Destiny into retail stores and first parties worldwide as of day one, making the game the biggest new video game franchise launch in history

Today:

Activision Blizzard, Inc. announced today that its highly anticipated new franchise Destiny sold-through more than $325 million worldwide in its first five days, according to Chart-Track, first parties, retail customer sell-through information and Activision Blizzard internal estimates

This is all Activision Blizzard's wording, not mine.

 

[Damerman]

I agree that sometimes day traders CAN over react. I don't agree that they are over reacting in this case, given what they know about the game's performance.I don't blame the investors they are playing a very expensive game with people's numbers without any cheat sheet.

A lot of gamers are buying into the sell in number Activision put out because they are under no legal obligation to be honest until the quarterly report. Activision used manipulation and players that are not aware of the subtleties of business buys into that sell-in hype.

Investor given the reviews are probably more concern about the long term profitability of the Destiny project that the short term boost in revenues. So far there is no indication that Destiny will pull in CoD and GTA numbers and destiny cost more to make than GTA did.

so grossing nearly 400 million in 5 days is no indication that Destiny brings in the cash flow? I don't buy that. I'm of the mind that day traders are mouth breathers with EXTEEEEEMLY short attention spans who only love the rush of the valueless activity of short term investments. They don't give a fuck about bungies 10 year plan... and they are willing to risk the equity that backs Bungie's long term creative vision(which i believe will succeed) for small profits on the dollar. Like i said, the world would be better off with people who short for the sole purpose of day to day profits. Have conviction, have a back bone and stop being so selfish and myopic.

 

[Mystic_Wanderer]

This is pure silliness. Look at their stock price over the last year, or 5. This is a minor fluctuation, still much higher than last year's prices.

 

[silvermember]

I think you give investors (many of whom don't even manage their own portfolios) too much credit. I guarantee you that many of the investors who sold their shares don't care about Destiny at all. They saw that the stock hit an all-time high a few days ago, and decided to sell and cash. One of the reasons why you can't accurately predict the market all the time is because you can't predict every investor's motivation.

The question is why should Investor care about destiny? INvestor invest in things that will return them money, they don't really care what product they invest in as long as they research and predict it might make them money.

Actually investors are somewhat predictable, meet their expectation and they are happy. The things that are unpredictable is how the company they invest performs when their new product comes out.

They are probably selling because the reception of Destiny doesn't seem conducive to the growth that they were expecting. So they sell out their stock.

 

[Aquamarine]

This is pure silliness. Look at their stock price over the last year, or 5. This is a minor fluctuation, still much higher than last year's prices.

This may be the start of a trend if Destiny starts to underperform commercially.

That's their growth area. Call of Duty / Skylanders / World of Warcraft / everything else is shrinking, so they need Destiny to pick up the slack and grow the company.

All eyes are on its performance.

 

[Kill3r7]

Shareholders are stupid sheep who deserve to exist in a circle of hell full of fecal matter storms, buried up to their necks in said fecal matter.

Except their money keeps the industry running. So there is always that.

 

[NoPiece]

Investors to ATVI: Sorry, you didn't earn your Metacritic bonus.

 

[BibiMaghoo]

Right, but the degree to which retailers recognize the game overshipped could translate to lost revenues from lower sales to retailers next time around.

Do we have any comparisons to COD shipments? Because those games tend to have legs and stay high priced. It would be good to compare, because they must surely overstock COD games everywhere at launch. I practically fall over displays walking into every shop. Maybe this is because Destiny doesn't have any known legs at this point, it may just fall off the board, so to speak.

Regardless, it just seems an odd way to value something, on what it could have been worth, instead of what it cost.

Stocks are all about expectations and growth.

With game releases, the value of the stock will have already been affected by how the investors believe the game will do. They have had alot of time to buy the stock in anticipation. This is why you don't have absurd increases right after a large game has been released and matches expectations. You have stock changes after a release when the game exceeds or under performs expectations.

In this case, investors expected it to sell more. The fact that it would sell alot and maybe even be a very strong IP was already built in to the stock by release day.

Sure, I just mean the way they value what they have lost in terms of stock for shelves - copies of the game unsold - rather than stocks as shares.

This is all Activision Blizzard's wording, not mine.

Right, but they are talking about in terms of how much that product can make at sale point, rather than what it actually cost them. My gripe was just with the way they value that.

 

[LowSignal]

We all knew this was going to happen. The expectations for new IP's like Watch Dogs, TitanFall and especially Destiny were just way to big.

 

[Northeastmonk]

so grossing nearly 400 million in 5 days is no indication that Destiny brings in the cash flow? I don't buy that. I'm of the mind that day traders are mouth breathers with EXTEEEEEMLY short attention spans who only love the rush of the valueless activity of short term investments. They don't give a fuck about bungies 10 year plan... and they are will to risk the equity that backs Bungie's long term creative vision(which i believe will succeed) for small profits on the dollar. Like i said, the world would be better off with people who short for the sole purpose of day to day profits. Have conviction, have a back bone and stop being so selfish and myopic.

These guys aren't going home to play their consoles either. They find talent and ask the talent to deliver. Is this their first time assuming something greater?

I know it's a give and take. You get a certain group who buys in drives one year and the next watch their purchases like a hawk.

 

[Kill3r7]

We all knew this was going to happen. The expectations for new IP's like Watch Dogs, TitanFall and especially Destiny were just way to big.

But the expectations (ROI) have to be big in order for these projects to be funded. We aren't talking indie games here. They have to drum up all sorts of excitement in the market and investors need to be hyped by these new IPs, otherwise they are not worth pursuing.

 

[nrvalleytime]

I think you give investors (many of whom don't even manage their own portfolios) too much credit. I guarantee you that many of the investors who sold their shares don't care about Destiny at all. They saw that the stock hit an all-time high a few days ago, and decided to sell and cash. One of the reasons why you can't accurately predict the market all the time is because you can't predict every investor's motivation.

Agreed. It's a buy and sell game, nothing more.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

Im not a Call of duty fan, but isnt the hype for COD a lot lower this year.....


Like ALOT lower?


Like if you didnt know it was an annual francise, you might if forgot it was coming out?

 

[Damerman]

Actually investors are somewhat predictable, meet their expectation and they are happy. The things that are unpredictable is how the company they invest performs when their new product comes out.

that is so untrue. There are too many moving parts for that statement to hold any water, what about stocks that pay dividends? what about hedge funds? individual investors who buy like 5 or 10 shares? you can't predict investors unless you can fit all your share holders in a room...

 

[zou]

Sure, a 5 day graph is totally going to let you see if it is profit taking /s. EA being up 60% this year is completely irrelevant for ATVI stockholders.

certainly more relevant than comparing its performance to major indices.

profit taking is a bs cop out anyway: "previously good performing stock is down with no apparent reason? profit taking", not that it matters, since that's clearly not the case here. game releases to mixed reviews and stock takes a dive = profit taking?

 

[CosmicQueso]

$175m worth of inventory is about 3.7m units sitting on store shelves.

 

[Kill3r7]

Im not a Call of duty fan, but isnt the hype for COD a lot lower this year.....


Like ALOT lower?


Like if you didnt know it was an annual francise, you might if forgot it was coming out?

The hype train will get going soon enough. Activision had to allow Destiny to reach its full potential prior to bombarding us with COD Ads.

 

[silvermember]

so grossing nearly 400 million in 5 days is no indication that Destiny brings in the cash flow? I don't buy that. I'm of the mind that day traders are mouth breathers with EXTEEEEEMLY short attention spans who only love the rush of the valueless activity of short term investments. They don't give a fuck about bungies 10 year plan... and they are will to risk the equity that backs Bungie's long term creative vision(which i believe will succeed) for small profits on the dollar. Like i said, the world would be better off with people who short for the sole purpose of day to day profits. Have conviction, have a back bone and stop being so selfish and myopic.

Let me fix that for you.

Grossing 400 million in SELL IN in 5 days BEFORE reviews came out. The reviews are not growing which reduces the potential earnings for the game and severily damages the hype and image of the game versus pre release.

I agree with everything else you said, investor don't give a fuck about Bungie and why should they? Bungie, Activision are simply opportunities to invest in with investors. Companies that have been existed longer and achieved more longer than bungie have crashed and burn. Let me also tell you this, Acitivision and it's investor probably dumb that much money due to Bungie's record and it seems their bet on Bungie isn't turning out as well as they might have hope.

In any case, you are speaking like a fan and not like an investor. You probably don't have millions of dollars invested in the company, so you can be as emotionally invested in bungie all you want because it means NOTHING. The potential to lose a lot of money, has earned them the right be uncaring. I am sure your tone will change if it was your money being invested.

 

[Northeastmonk]

Im not a Call of duty fan, but isnt the hype for COD a lot lower this year.....


Like ALOT lower?


Like if you didnt know it was an annual francise, you might if forgot it was coming out?

I don't know. Sometimes I feel that every man, woman, and child knows that it's coming out, but they rather have a conversation about it than actually buy it.

The politics surrounding CoD makes it out to be a health concern or maybe I'm wrong? I think more people know about it anymore.

I'd like for it to be the fun video game. Joining the healthcare field in school has just soured my ears with one sided views. I also ignore the news. You know they don't play anything.

 

[1st Course]

Being the best selling new IP OF ALL TIME isn't enough!?

Kotick said they were hoping it would sell $1B. So far the game sold $325m. The game would need legs to hit that target but with the lackluster reviews and all the negativity it will be very hard if not unlikely to hit that target.

Also Activation is ridiculously overvalued for what it is (seriously ~$20B for a game company that's not even growing? WTF), only natural that shares will go down.

 

[a916]

Mr Market.

Anyone who's read this will agree:

 

[Mysterious]

Still about $1.5B more than Nintendo.

 

[Iorv3th]

52-Week Low (Nov 7, 2013)3: 16.06

https://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ATVI+Key+Statistics


They are up from last year. Yeah they got a quick surge and then it went down again, markets fluctuate. But year over year they are doing a lot better.

 

[silvermember]

Still about $1.5B more than Nintendo.

What does this have to do with Nintendo? I doubt Kotick sleeps are night dreaming at least they are worth more than Nintendo.

 

[maabus1999]

https://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ATVI+Key+Statistics


They are up from last year. Yeah they got a quick surge and then it went down again, markets fluctuate. But year over year they are doing a lot better.

Compare versus peers and overall market, never individually. Atvi is still a strong stock peer wise though.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

The hype train will get going soon enough. Activision had to allow Destiny to reach its full potential prior to bombarding us with COD Ads.

I dunno. Im not sure that approach is going to work as well as it does normally.

I don't know. Sometimes I feel that every man, woman, and child knows that it's coming out, but they rather have a conversation about it than actually buy it.

The politics surrounding CoD makes it out to be a health concern or maybe I'm wrong? I think more people know about it anymore.

I just keep asking my COD playing friends about it and while AW looks "Cool" alot of them have made no indication they are actually going to BUY it.

I feel like the franchise is starting to feel a bit of burnout.

 

[KojiKnight]

Yeah, I'd watch and see how low Acti-Blizz goes, then if you're the type that likes to invest, I'd grab a bunch while they are cheap. Acti-Blizz doesn't stay down long.

 

[vinnygambini]

Still about $1.5B more than Nintendo.

Shameful, absolutely no connection whatsoever.

 

[Hawaii Jeff]

Oh boooooo hooooooo

Not good enough? Really?! Not satisfied after a week?

 

[Northeastmonk]

I dunno. Im not sure that approach is going to work as well as it does normally.



I just keep asking my COD playing friends about it and while AW is "Cool" alot of them have made no indication they are actually going to BUY it.

I feel like the franchise is starting to feel a bit of burnout.

I think its popularity has just caused agendas and people get burned out on their own.

The group I talked to were heavy into BF and they never played CoD. I don't know many people offline anymore who could no scope or throw a dagger 300 ft away for a kill. It's heavy on people who don't even play it. Lol

I sure have heard about a killing sim. Man I never knew I'd get so much training in my life. I didn't even need to join the army.
^ sarcasm. s-a-r-c-a-s-m

I'd say it out loud too "SARCASM"

Next word is: Satire

 

[IndoAssassin]

Hmmmm maybe I should buy some stocks for COD release.

 

[Beer Monkey]

The big launch means jack shit.

Destiny is supposed to be a tentpole, evergreen, market dominating shooter. Years would go by with Halo games in the Xbox top 10 monthly NPD, every single month. Years go by with CoD games in the overall top 10 monthly NPD, every single month. This is what the investors are expecting.

Will Destiny be in the top 10 come next March?

 

[Aquamarine]

Hmmmm maybe I should buy some stocks for COD release.

Nah. Stock price is built in for a regular Call of Duty launch.

If Advanced Warfare shrinks the franchise even more---which I expect at this point---expect even more stock drops, not the other way around.

 

[CosmicQueso]

The big launch means jack shit.

Destiny is supposed to be a tentpole, evergreen, market dominating shooter. Years would go by with Halo games in the Xbox top 10 monthly NPD, every single month. Years go by with CoD games in the overall top 10 monthly NPD, every single month. This is what the investors are expecting.

Will Destiny be in the top 10 come next March?

Right... this thing is supposed to be a 10 year, 4+ game franchise. Right now, does anyone who even really likes the game after the first week think it is set up well for a 10 year run?

Sure, they can turn it around, but the expectations were that it wouldn't have to.

 

[vinnygambini]

Right... this thing is supposed to be a 10 year, 4+ game franchise. Right now, does anyone who even really likes the game after the first week think it is set up well for a 10 year run?

Sure, they can turn it around, but the expectations were that it wouldn't have to.

That's the Billion $ question.

Bungie planned Destiny as a Lord of the Rings type trilogy, will it succeed on the front? I'm not positive at this point, it's going to be interesting to see moving forward.

 

[Yoda]

A PC release would have helped pad this number a bit. It probably would have at least sold more than one last gen console's worth of the total share of sales. It will undoubtedly eventually hit the projections but the DLC will most likely move less "units". Given those have a higher profit margin that will be quite the disappointment for share holders. While Destiny '2' will certainly have no trouble selling either, it won't become the mega franchise Activision Blizzard was banking on. They are either going to have to accept they can't rely on mega-franchises or revive one of their dying cash cows. WoW/CoD are both shrinking, they are still wildly profitable but their current size is what ACTI is priced for, if they shrink with nothing to fill the vacuum they could see more sell-offs.

 

[Beer Monkey]

This is just a small southern chain so far but...:

Now, did these games "fall off a truck" i.e. is this store selling stolen merch? Or are some distributors already starting to dump excess inventory?

If it's the latter, look to be able to buy Destiny from Tigerdirect or Buy/Rakuten or some other huge seller for $30 shipped on eBay within a week or two.

 

[Braag]

When I read this..

http://www.kotaku.co.uk/2014/05/06/...destiny-need-sell-15-million-games-break-even

I knew something like this would happen.

 

[Damerman]

In any case, you are speaking like a fan and not like an investor. You probably don't have millions of dollars invested in the company, so you can be as emotionally invested in bungie all you want because it means NOTHING. The potential to lose a lot of money, has earned them the right be uncaring. I am sure your tone will change if it was your money being invested.

You know, this is something i've heard countless times and i have no choice but to agree, because i'm not even long on any stocks. BUT i do have some companies that i would put my money in for years upon years just to see the company grow. And those are the only companies i would invest in. I guess the real question is what ur stance on what an investor is. I think an investor is someone who believes in a vision and lends his support because he understands that capital is an important part of making that vision a reality. if the venture didn't work out, it didn't work out, but if it does, then the return is a bonus.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

You know, this is something i've heard countless times and i have no choice but to agree, because i'm not even long on any stocks. BUT i do have some companies that i would put my money in for years upon years just to see the company grow. And those are the only companies i would invest in. I guess the real question is what ur stance on what an investor is. I think an investor is someone who believes in a vision and lends his support because he understands that capital is an important part of making that vision a reality. if the venture didn't work out, it didn't work out, but if it does, then the return is a bonus.

If that mentality ever existed in large numbers, it disappeared a long long long time ago.

 

[blastprocessor]

Is that $175m of unsold stock the next ET?

 

[Welfare]

Oh sweet a Ra- wait never mind, it's uncommon.