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Pachter Predicts: Xbox One outsold PS4 in September (dance, you puppets)

You're right, let's keep the company that a little over a year ago planned to force a virtual monopoly on content through excessive control of digital games with draconian DRM and a whole slate of anti-consumer policies. That's the kind of innovation we need!

/s

More or less where we are now... MS just had the balls to tell you.

Do you want some reminders how Sony tried to screw people over?
 
If Sony did that then Netflix and Hulu could complain to the competition authorities and Sony would get the punishment that's coming to them. Same with any other anti-competative actions.

There's nothing wrong with a monopoly gained fair and square through competition. And in a hypothetical situation, a new console transition is when they'd be at their weakest and most vulnerable to new competition.

I doubt that anti trust laws are applicable in that case. Access to a store hosted by a private company is not a guaranteed right.
 
So you are trusting Sony that if they get to a monopoly position they are not gonna abuse it to make more money? The reason we have no monopolies (name one) is because companies always abuse it and get prosecuted.
If I may use your MS analogy. where they used their OS monopoly to push Netscape out, Sony (in that hypothetical position) can just ban Netflix and Hulu from PSN and drive subs for their own streaming service.
But yeah Sony won't do all that because they are #4thegamers right?

Taken from Wikipedia:
MPAA (Motion Picture Association of America) has a monopoly over film ratings in the U.S.
Joint Commission is an organization that accredits more than 20,000 health care organizations and programs in the United States. The Commission has a monopoly over determining whether a U.S. hospital can participate in the publicly funded Medicare and Medicaid healthcare programs.
Monsanto has been sued by competitors for anti-trust and monopolistic practices. They have between 70% and 100% of the commercial seed market.
AAFES has a monopoly on retail sales at overseas U.S. military installations.

Sorry for going off topic but I had to correct that.
 
If you mean WW. X360 had almost one year headstart (and even bigger in EU) compared to PS3. Not sure how long it took from PS3 to caught X360 up in EU.

Pretty sure PS3 was constantly outselling Xbox worldwide. The fact that they managed to catch up after Xbox had a years headstart implies it at least. It just did so averagely in America that everyone in the English speaking world thought it was floundering, so there's a lot of cognitive dissonance when the concept of the PS3 selling at a much faster rate is put forward.

The maths (inaccurate figures based on rough memory, just to illustrate point):

Xbox: 80 million after 6 years - 13 million-ish a year
PS3: 80 million after 5 years - 16 million-ish a year

Ergo, my conclusion.
 
I doubt that anti trust laws are applicable in that case. Access to a store hosted by a private company is not a guaranteed right.

Yes, I was just following his example but there are lots of caveats, the market would have to be constricted to streaming on consoles and likely depend on the market for set top box streamers collapsing. Forcing them off would likely backfire rather than helping. So the hypotheticals are laying on thick.
 

Jack cw

Member
And why did MS throw out those policies and plans?
Because they were losing to direct competition in every measure.
I do not understand why people are rooting for MS to fail, competition drives innovation.

They changed plans not because Sony said "hey, let's do the exact opposite", but for the negative reception of those plans worldwide. This had nothing to do with direct competition, this was a move to cut rights and people reacted and the reaction went so far, that xbone suffers from this until today and will as long as this generation continues. This is what happens when in an age of social media the bad worth of mouth spread like a virus and is still in the minds of many people. They fucked it up all by themselves. And after that Sony reacted and this was the moment when the compeitor hit them the hardest. Not Sony made them ditch their original plans, it was the people. Those people were happy that Sony didn't follow Microsoft's steps and supported them. That's a different case here.

And no one is rooting for Microsoft to fail or anything. You guys are obviously bond personally to a company if it makes you that upset. I was with 360 for 8 years, but in the end I want the best value for my money and couldnt care less about what company is behind it.
 
Yes, I was just following his example but there are lots of caveats, the market would have to be constricted to streaming on consoles and likely depend on the market for set top box streamers collapsing. Forcing them off would likely backfire rather than helping. So the hypotheticals are laying on thick.

All I was saying is more competition = better for customer.
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
All I was saying is more competition = better for customer.

yes. More competition is better. That doesn't require parity - in fact competition is more likely to be driven by one party being quite behind and needing to do something different to bridge the gap in sales.
 
They changed plans not because Sony said "hey, let's do the exact opposite", but for the negative reception of those plans worldwide. This had nothing to do with direct competition, this was a move to cut rights and people reacted and the reaction went so far, that xbone suffers from this until today and will as long as this generation continues. This is what happens when in an age of social media the bad worth of mouth spread like a virus and is still in the minds of many people. They fucked it up all by themselves. And after that Sony reacted and this was the moment when the compeitor hit them the hardest. Not Sony made them ditch their original plans, it was the people. Those people were happy that Sony didn't follow Microsoft's steps and supported them. That's a different case here.

And no one is rooting for Microsoft to fail or anything. You guys are obviously bond personally to a company if it makes you that upset. I was with 360 for 8 years, but in the end I want the best value for my money and couldnt care less about what company is behind it.

MS gauged the opinions and assumed more customers would switch to PS4 if they did not remove their original plans.
 
How can you possibly theorize with any certainty on what this hypothetical future would be like?

And like somebody else said, poor Dreamcast.

While the Dreamcast did it too, without the professionalism and universally integrated LIVE, the PS2 and Gamecube would have never attempted to rush half ass Broadband adapter to market. People here are saying Sony holding a monopoly is fine but jesus; this is the same company that tried to destroy wallets with memory cards on BOTH their handhelds, sell a shitty PC-Engine like multitap for the PS2 and then remove backwards compatibility on the PS3. NOW they're selling cheap controllers with shitty sticks, selling fucking analog stick "pro covers" to patch up their fuck up and god knows what else they'll do this gen to piss off consumers.

Monopolies are shit.
 
All I was saying is more competition = better for customer.

Which is what lead to the current situation. Even if Sony were to run away with it then it doesn't eliminate competition. There are still other powerful platforms in terms of market size, you could end up with multiple consoles companies competing very hard for the left over scraps. And not just that there will be competition between developers on that dominant platform.

As a long term Linux user I'm well aware of the issues of a dominant platform abusing their position in the market, so I'm cautious but not ready to see bogeymen where none exist.
 

Jack cw

Member
MS gauged the opinions and assumed more customers would switch to PS4 if they did not remove their original plans.

Well, what else would people do if they had to give up their own rights and if they refuse they could still play on 360... Funny that they first thought their DRM idea was what people wanted and after the shitstorms they figured out that they were wrong. Competition didn't make them create DRM.
 

Respawn

Banned
They changed plans not because Sony said "hey, let's do the exact opposite", but for the negative reception of those plans worldwide. This had nothing to do with direct competition, this was a move to cut rights and people reacted and the reaction went so far, that xbone suffers from this until today and will as long as this generation continues. This is what happens when in an age of social media the bad worth of mouth spread like a virus and is still in the minds of many people. They fucked it up all by themselves. And after that Sony reacted and this was the moment when the compeitor hit them the hardest. Not Sony made them ditch their original plans, it was the people. Those people were happy that Sony didn't follow Microsoft's steps and supported them. That's a different case here.

And no one is rooting for Microsoft to fail or anything. You guys are obviously bond personally to a company if it makes you that upset. I was with 360 for 8 years, but in the end I want the best value for my money and couldnt care less about what company is behind it.
Great post.
 

kinoki

Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
While the Dreamcast did it too, without the professionalism and universally integrated LIVE, the PS2 and Gamecube would have never attempted to rush half ass Broadband adapter to market. People here are saying Sony holding a monopoly is fine but jesus; this is the same company that tried to destroy wallets with memory cards on BOTH their handhelds, sell a shitty PC-Engine like multitap for the PS2 and then remove backwards compatibility on the PS3. NOW they're selling cheap controllers with shitty sticks, selling fucking analog stick "pro covers" to patch up their fuck up and god knows what else they'll do this gen to piss off consumers.

Monopolies are shit.

I don't think you actually know what monopolies are.

The Xbox 360 is a great product. I thought about buying one for a long time. What it did for online gaming made it the single best product on the market last generation. As a European I felt I got the short end of the stick though. I also don't like paying for a paywall to services like Netflix.

So, we have the rotten infrastructure of Sony's PS2 that led to Microsoft doubling down on online gaming. A niche they so far exceeded at that Sony is still trying to catch up. Sony then had to improve the monotization by offering other services ("free" games) to win consumers. It also kept services like Netflix and f2p out of the paywall. So, checks and balances! Microsoft then had to offer the same to keep up.

If Sony screws up with PS5 we'll see a pretty barren landscape for console gamers. Ripe for the picking for actors like Valve and Apple. Just because Microsoft failed this gen only charted out what the market is ready for an what it isn't. It doesn't become a monopoly just because Sony consoles sell better than Microsoft's for a generation in the North American-market.

The original Xbone that later became XBO was a horrible product that should have been sent back as junk. The XBO is a decent but underpowered product that the market is just starting to warm up to. Hopefully it'll get some nice software. Hopefully Microsoft ditches parity (to encourage more competition) and let's f2p roam free. Microsoft still has a lot of work to do in order to catch up to Sony. By pretending they are doing things right at the moment is a mistake as a consumer.
 

Steroyd

Member
MS gauged the opinions and assumed more customers would switch to PS4 if they did not remove their original plans.

But PS4 isn't the only avenue of gaming PC is, people could just as easily not buy a next gen system at all, just like how casuals abandoned the Wii to WiiU and moved to mobile.
 

Swass

Member
All I was saying is more competition = better for customer.

So far the only customers that have benefitted from this competition are the Xbox One customers. They have seen things like major sales on the base hardware with loads of bundled games, value added to their Gold membership by essentially modeling the service after the leader, and they have had loads of nonsense removed from their system like the paywalls and draconian DRM. However the only thing the Sony customer has got from this competition is games like Titanfall and Rise of the Tomb Raider removed from their library and games being underdeveloped for their system like AC: Unity. So I'm not entirely sure how true your statement really is when the majority of the customers of consoles in this competition are getting the short end of the stick.
 

Lemondish

Member
More or less where we are now... MS just had the balls to tell you.

Do you want some reminders how Sony tried to screw people over?

That's an appeal to hypocrisy - a logical fallacy. Pointing out how Sony tried to screw people over does not immediately absolve Microsoft of trying to do so, nor does it even begin to address your point.
 
Well, what else would people do if they had to give up their own rights and if they refuse they could still play on 360... Funny that they first thought their DRM idea was what people wanted and after the shitstorms they figured out that they were wrong. Competition didn't make them create DRM.

Don and Yusuf were just up in their ivory tower and overestimated the draw the Xbox brand has. They wanted to cut out Gamestop, MediaMarkt etc, because their all digital model would have meant the death of retail.
 

Jack cw

Member
Don and Yusuf were just up in their ivory tower and overestimated the draw the Xbox brand has. They wanted to cut out Gamestop, MediaMarkt etc, because their all digital model would have meant the death of retail.

Fair enough, but what exactly has this to do with Sony, PS4, and "competition is a good thing"? All what Microsoft did last year with their new console was not born out of the thought of competition to win the crowd and market with something both parties could benefit from. It was done to kill compeititors and have a monopoly on retail, digital, distribution and use in the console and games market. The exact opposite of what you are stating with your "competition is good for the consumer".
 

Sarobi

Banned
Tonight is gonna be so gud.

giphy.gif
 
Fair enough, but what exactly has this to do with Sony, PS4, and "competition is a good thing"? All what Microsoft did last year with their new console was not born out of the thought of competition to win the crowd and market with something both parties could benefit from. It was done to kill compeititors and have a monopoly on retail, digital, distribution and use in the console and games market. The exact opposite of what you are stating with your "competition is good for the consumer".

MS would have gone thru with their plans, if Sony wasn't there.
MS did not care about ppl bitching on social media, they cared about potential losses if too many users go to Sony.
 

BokehKing

Banned
I don't think people want to see Microsoft lose and give up on Xbox they just want them humbled and to get use to second or third place.

This whole "if we are not in first place we will use every dirty tactic in the book" mentality they exhibit all with in the first year is quite embarrassing
 

m@cross

Member
I don't think people want to see Microsoft lose and give up on Xbox they just want them humbled and to get use to second or third place.

This whole "if we are not in first place we will use every dirty tactic in the book" mentality they exhibit all with in the first year is quite embarrassing

Actually I do want them to give up.

I'd prefer they sell the brand to a corporation I can stomach or close it and let their IPs go to a new competitor.

I do NOT want any one company to be the only one however.
 

Ray Wonder

Founder of the Wounded Tagless Children
NPD doesn't give hardware sales numbers right? So we're not going to find out specific numbers unless MS and Sony release them.
 

Jack cw

Member
MS would have gone thru with their plans, if Sony wasn't there.
MS did not care about ppl bitching on social media, they cared about potential losses if too many users go to Sony.

You do see that both of your statements are related to each other and are a direct result. Was it the PS4 unveiling last February or was it the legendary TV, TV, TV and Mattrick meltdown in May when the uproar began? Microsoft has a product to sell and invested more than 4 billion Dollars in the last decade to set foot in the market. Every negative PR and especially the dimension this whole affair had, made them ditch their plans. Every outlet, every board, every blog, every retailer had this DRM dilemma as their main topic last summer. Not to mention the tweets and posts per second. Microsoft witnessed the power of the consumers and back pedalled half a year before launch! It is only a secondary effect that many buyers sitting on the fence went with the other system. Again, not Sony made them ditch their plans nor were they responsible that Microsoft came up with the DRM idea. That's not how compeititon works.
 
Actually I do want them to give up.

I'd prefer they sell the brand to a corporation I can stomach or close it and let their IPs go to a new competitor.

I do NOT want any one company to be the only one however.

I'm the same. The biggest issue here is I'm not really sure there's a company out there who would be willing spend the time and money required to move away from a Windows platform or be willing to stick with it.
 
More or less where we are now... MS just had the balls to tell you.

Do you want some reminders how Sony tried to screw people over?

Absolutely. I always love seeing the "List Wars" version of all the things Sony has ever done bad, most of which are things like remove features people weren't willing to pay for anyway, make stupid PR statements 8 years ago, or pay for game exclusives 15 years ago.
 
You do see that both of your statements are related to each other and are a direct result. Was it the PS4 unveiling last February or was it the legendary TV, TV, TV and Mattrick meltdown in May when the uproar began? Microsoft has a product to sell and invested more than 4 billion Dollars in the last decade to set foot in the market. Every negative PR and especially the dimension this whole affair had, made them ditch their plans. Every outlet, every board, every blog, every retailer had this DRM dilemma as their main topic last summer. Not to mention the tweets and posts per second. Microsoft witnessed the power of the consumers and back pedalled half a year before launch! It is only a secondary effect that many buyers sitting on the fence went with the other system. Again, not Sony made them ditch their plans nor were they responsible that Microsoft came up with the DRM idea. That's not how compeititon works.

Both Sony and MS had their next gen reveal on the same day. Sony got great reactions, MS got bad reactions.
MS learned that the public favored the PS4 model over theirs, which made them get rid of the DRM stuff at first, the mandatory kinect later.
You are telling me it had all nothing to do with Sony and the PS4 doing so well?
Implementing stuff that works well for the competitors and learning/stealing from them is exactly how competition works.

Of course you are right that PC, Wii and mobile are out there too. But does Mercedes really care how the S-Class is doing compared to the Hummer H3?
I guess they are only looking at Audi A8 or BMW 7 sales. That is the relevant segment.
So MS and Sony don't really compete with Steam, Wii U because X1 and PS4 are in their own "HD-AAA games-Media-400€" segment.
 
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