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[Thunder Monkey]

yup. I mean the system can be profitable, but I always do like to play around with folk who keep calling this a turnaround. This is not a turnaround by any conceivable stretch of the imagination. This is just the Hindenburg disaster in slower motion is all.

I love the Wii U, but my gosh the system is going to top out optimistically at what at this point worldwide? 15 million? 16? I can't even figure how we can stretch it much further at this point

My current expectation is around 13 million units total. Give or take a few hundred thousand. 6-6.5 million units in NA, around 3-3.5 million units in Euroland, and roughly 3 million units in Japan.

RoW! will amount to a few hundred thousand units.

I don't expect miracles with the platform. Its next "big" moment will come with the release of Zelda. And that will be marginal in comparison to the "explosive!" level it was selling at with Mario Kart and Smash.

 

[allan-bh]

Hmmm. 1.2m for Nov+Dec of Skyward Sword. High userbase but most of the general core gamers had left years before, so it was mostly just Nintendo core users left on the system still buying a game like Zelda. Twilight Princess did 1.5m on WII+GCN in Nov+Dec 2006. Wind Waker did just under 1m in March+April in 2003. Yeah over 700K seems extremely likely. I still expect over 1m in Nov+Dec, but I can see a good argument for not quite getting that high.

Smash sold 1.3m. Will not be easy for Zelda sell more than 1m.

 

[faridmon]

Why are people still persisting with this "Sony needs to drop the price" narrative?

No they fucking don't. At all. Just because MS has slightly eaten into their lead in the US, while they continue to hugely outsell them everywhere else in the world?

I mean, Sony is in a fantastic position right now to make real bank. Like make actual money. They should milk that opportunity for what iot's worth rather than worrying about a dick measuring contest that they're already winning.

Good lord. Maybe it's people with that line of thinking that got Sony to where they are before Kaz had to be promoted to try and fix it all.

Why are people taking these things personally?

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Wait now people are predicting Vita sales to be over 100k? What?

And I was thinking that Vita would be lucky to crack over 100k. What happened?

 

[ZSaberLink]

teheheheeh



Maybe an entry cost a la 2DS for the Wii U console but I don't see it happening, personally.

But current Wii U will remain 299$ FY16 - like I mentioned, all about staying the course and getting those balance sheets up (it's the lowest they've been since the Gamecube days - they don't like it).

I mean hasn't the 3DS price stayed the same since it's initial price cut?

I'm pretty sure the reason the Wii U price has stayed up is to get rid of any initial stock they had produced of Wii Us/GamePads. If they have finally gotten through that, they might be able to lower the cost of a console, thus allowing for a pricecut. If the XB1 and/or PS4 lower their prices, Nintendo will be forced to cut the price anyhow imo. Iwata got forced to cut the price to $99 in the GC days (2003), at the very least it'd happen here at some point.

 

[donny2112]

You're expecting a really tight, nearly 1:1 retention of sales here though. You think it's gonna hold that strongly with the Wii U userbase where it is? Where was GCN's hardware sales at the time Wind Waker released?

GCN was 3.9m in March 2003. Wii U is at 3.7m currently. *shrugs* Ocarina/Master Quest preorder probably helped a lot, but Wii U Zelda will have Nov+Dec going for it.

Twilight Princess was two consoles, so I think the 1.5million number is clearly not one that we can compare reasonably in that sense. Did it sell 1 million on Wii in Nov+Dec and 500k on GCN, or was the breakdown something else?

930K Wii and 530K GCN. I consider that a little "Oh, yeah! Take that!" to Nintendo since they purposefully delayed releasing the GCN version until December, kept the stock low, and it still sold more than the Wii version did either month. I never even bought the Wii version until Player's Choice years later, and it was still clear the GCN version was better (better controls, camera control, and world wasn't flipped all backwards)! :lol

You're on donny! Loser has to tell the other poster they're totally the winner. Ho ho ho!

Deal. Now just have to remember a year from now.

 

[NateDrake]

Wait now people are predicting Vita sales to be over 100k? What?

And I was thinking that Vita would be lucky to crack over 100k. What happened?

Where are these predictions happening? I would have been shocked had it crossed 75k.

 

[donny2112]

I mean hasn't the 3DS price stayed the same since it's initial price cut?

Officially, yeah. Officially, the 2DS is $130, but if you ever pay more than $100 for it, it's because you weren't paying attention.

Realistically, I expect price cuts for the non New 3DS models (officially making 2DS $99) and Wii U this next FY. We'll see.

Smash sold 1.3m. Will not be easy for Zelda sell more than 1m.

3DS version sold 2m in 3 months. Hypothetical world, but in a hypothetical world where there was no 3DS version, Smash U sells significantly higher methinks.

 

[Fady K]

Hmm...I'm surprised Sony isn't being a bit more aggressive. Not only did Xbox One beat them for a second month running (by a very big margin IMO - a quarter of a million more is a big deal), but they have been handily beaten this month in the software department. Despite the lack of big time exclusives for the first half of 2015 on the XB1, the $50 price cut (as well as further expected offers from Microsoft) will possibly help Microsoft lead Sony for some time to come.

Historically, I don't recall Sony being aggressive with their marketing from a price point of view hence at this rate I think come summer 2015 XB1 will have blown way past PS4's numbers in NA.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Where are these predictions happening? I would have been shocked had it crossed 75k.

A couple pages back, someone quoted a number but it wasn't accurate anyways.

Given the Borderlands 2 bundle + Vita Slim, it is plausible though. But I have zero expectations.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Where are these predictions happening? I would have been shocked had it crossed 75k.

Based on the pie charts. If they are correct, either the 3DS has to have sold miserably this December or the Vita sold better than expected. Given cream's statement about MS family > Nintendo family > Sony family, the 3DS at the bare minimum needs to be 483K + PS3 + PSV, where Vita + TV is about 1/6th of the handheld market this time somehow (63 degrees according to Shinra's measurement of the pie chart).

an approximate calc would be

3DS + Wii U + Wii > PS4 + PS3 + PSV
3DS > 483K + PS3 + PSV - Wii

3DS ~= 4.66V according to pie chart angles (296.5 degrees for 3DS, 63.5 degrees for Vita + TV)

4.66V > 483K + PS3 - Wii + V
3.66V > 483K + PS3 - Wii
V > ~131K + (PS3 - Wii)/3.66. According to what we know, the Vita sold a lot more than anyone expected... even if it's still miserable

 

[DarkPhoenix]

I'm pretty sure that Nintendo has a surprise that will drop on the E3, maybe new colors and a price drop to $229, I'm willing to know what do they have after Zelda which is their biggest surprise? If the new console comes on Nov 2017 that means that they will care for 2016 but they will drop the WiiU in the last years just like they did with the Wii in 2012.

XB1 is doing it great, I'm glad that it's sticking to the $349 price, let's see which will be the new bundle.

 

[shinra-bansho]

This?

Ah, I see, missed that before.

I'd speculate last gen numbers are lower, like 400K or lower, which is why the PS3 and 360 are much closer. And how Nintendo's combined hardware ends up higher than Sony's.

Playing around with excel, and using lower last gen numbers this reconciles with the given info.

 

[vinnygambini]

Officially, yeah. Officially, the 2DS is $130, but if you ever pay more than $100 for it, it's because you weren't paying attention.

Realistically, I expect price cuts for the non New 3DS models (officially making 2DS $99) and Wii U this next FY. We'll see.

We shall see

Who will be crowned the winner, donny or vinny? Place your bets!

 

[Doctor_Thomas]

Hmm...I'm surprised Sony isn't being a bit more aggressive. Not only did Xbox One beat them for a second month running (by a very big margin IMO - a quarter of a million more is a big deal), but they have been handily beaten this month in the software department. Despite the lack of big time exclusives for the first half of 2015 on the XB1, the $50 price cut (as well as further expected offers from Microsoft) will possibly help Microsoft lead Sony for some time to come.

Historically, I don't recall Sony being aggressive with their marketing from a price point of view hence at this rate I think come summer 2015 XB1 will have blown way past PS4's numbers in NA.

Sony simply doesn't need to be aggressive. They still outsold Microsoft for the year and still hold a comfortable lead, all by doing next to nothing. Software sold better in the final months on the year on XB1 simply because more people were buying software. You don't really expect these sort of numbers to last the rest of the year, do you?

 

[Game Guru]

It's only going to grow. Keep in mind the Wii U's LTD entirely relies on Decembers (except for launch November)....
of the 3.7M or so, we have:
Nov 2012 + Dec 2012 + Dec 2013 + Dec 2014 = 1.929M. More than half is just there. Probably is the rest of the months (460K more with Nov 2013/2014) is just miserable... 1.3M for the console outside of holidays in 2 whole years...

Does this account for the fact that XB1 went from being soundly beaten by PS4 in the US to basically tying with the PS4 in the US because of XB1 outselling PS4 in November and December and that XB1 has otherwise only outsold PS4 in its first December. Basically, what makes Wii U only doing well in December in the US any different from Xbox One only doing well in December in the US at this particular point? Sure, given other people's observations, my initial observation is wrong, but your particular reasoning feels somewhat faulty given what we have seen.

Speaking of which, I will acknowledge that the extra year is a factor for how well Wii U has done so far which a few others had stated in response to my observation which I will admit I had forgotten about. I apologize for not remembering that.

You, my friend, are wildly optimistic optimistic*

*if you are saying Wii U lifetime sales in the US will reach 15m. It'll struggle to hit that worldwide.

That was more of a random worldwide number to make a point. Wii U doesn't have much beyond the US and Japan markets, but XB1 does not have much beyond the US market. Who will win the US between PS4 and XB1 is unclear, but it doesn't really matter since Sony has won everywhere else by far.

 

[Frillen]

Driveclub sales are probably 70% digital. So it's more like 250k

Tales.

 

[donny2112]

Think what you may, but according to what we know, the Vita sold 120K or more somehow this December....

If Wii + DS sell 70K (doable), then it becomes 413K + PS3 + V. PS3 was < 100K in Nov, and it dropped Nov -> Dec the last two years. Could be looking at a 550K 3DS and 50K Vita...

Edit:
Oh, with the angle difference, any 3DS over 500K => Vita (total) over 100K. I see what you're saying. Forgot that we at least had a ratio of 3DS to Vita (total).

 

[Godzilla's Left Toe]

You're expecting a really tight, nearly 1:1 retention of sales here though. You think it's gonna hold that strongly with the Wii U userbase where it is? Where was GCN's hardware sales at the time Wind Waker released?

Twilight Princess was two consoles, so I think the 1.5million number is clearly not one that we can compare reasonably in that sense. Did it sell 1 million on Wii in Nov+Dec and 500k on GCN, or was the breakdown something else? I am still struggling to see how you are so confident it does more than 700k in two months on Wii U to be honest, but I love fun little bets like this.

You're on donny! Loser has to tell the other poster they're totally the winner. Ho ho ho!

Twlight Princess was 412K for Nov and 532.9K GCN and 519.2 K Wii for Dec

 

[shinra-bansho]

(63 degrees according to Shinra's measurement of the pie chart).

Ok. I'm going to have to apologize profusely but I messed up before with this.

I added the Vita TV together with Vita including TV instead of subtracting to get Vita without TV.

Total Vita angle is :56.3
7.2 degrees is Vita TV.
Normal Vita is 49.1

3DS is 303.7 deg.

 

[Hero of Legend]

That was answered just a couple posts up from yours. BoomWU = 68K, Boom3D = 73K.

Sonic Lost World and Sonic Boom are two different games.

 

[Fady K]

Sony simply doesn't need to be aggressive. They still outsold Microsoft for the year and still hold a comfortable lead, all by doing next to nothing. Software sold better in the final months on the year on XB1 simply because more people were buying software. You don't really expect these sort of numbers to last the rest of the year, do you?

You make good points, but when the margin is big between them in both November and December, don't you think that should concern Sony?

They are the biggest months of the year gaming-wise after all.

 

[hodayathink]

If Wii + DS sell 70K (doable), then it becomes 413K + PS3 + V. PS3 was < 100K in Nov, and it dropped Nov -> Dec the last two years. Could be looking at a 550K 3DS and 50K Vita...

That wouldn't vibe with the handheld pie chart, though.

Edit: Even with Shinra's revised numbers, we're looking at the 3DS selling about 6 times what the Vita did. I'm thinking the numbers would be closer to 480K 3DS and 80K Vita.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Ok. I'm going to have to apologize profusely but I messed up before with this.

I added the Vita TV together with Vita including TV instead of subtracting to get Vita without TV.

Total Vita angle is :56.3
7.2 degrees is Vita TV.
Normal Vita is 49.1

3DS is 303.7 deg.

Ah that explains things. Oh well.

Vita may be slightly up YoY (w/ TV)

3DS > 483K + PS3 + PSV - Wii
6.18V > 483K + PS3 + V - Wii
5.18V > 483K + PS3 - Wii
V > 93.24K + (PS3-Wii) / (5.18)
3DS > 576K + (PS3 - Wii ) * (6.18 / 5.18)

Aqua has said the DS no longer sells. The Wii might still sell a small amount this holiday as it often times was competing with the Vita this year.

Sonic Lost World and Sonic Boom are two different games.

Sorry I completely skimmed over the Lost World part. Nvm.

 

[Nick_crx]

Sony simply doesn't need to be aggressive. They still outsold Microsoft for the year and still hold a comfortable lead, all by doing next to nothing. Software sold better in the final months on the year on XB1 simply because more people were buying software. You don't really expect these sort of numbers to last the rest of the year, do you?

Huh?? But ps4 has a larger install base. Why is xbone aelling more multiplat games?

Dont get it

 

[Mpl90]

Reading what posted in the past few hours, it seems that Captain Toad did fantastic. It had a better NPD debut than 3D World (215,000)! Of course, it's 9 days v.s. 4 full weeks (it came out on December 5th), but I was expecting more like 150,000. Definitely impressed, the budget price did wonders. Pretty good for KH2.5HD and...surprisingly The Crew. How the heck did The Crew sell more than 300,000 units, HOW.

Also, going with retail ranges for SSB 3DS and MK8 and comparing them with NoA's PR numbers, we have

MK8 digital sales - > 200,000
SSB 3DS digital sales - < 300,000

In the case retail numbers are near to the posted numbers, digital numbers shouldn't be that far off the ones just posted as well.

 

[John Harker]

Oh jeeZe 3ds was around 810

 

[NateDrake]

Oh jeeZe 3ds was around 810

There ya go, folks. Recalculate that chart!

 

[allan-bh]

Oh jeeZe 3ds was around 810

Oh good. Now we have a baseline for handhelds pie.

 

[donny2112]

Edit: Even with Shinra's revised numbers, we're looking at the 3DS selling about 6 times what the Vita did. I'm thinking the numbers would be closer to 480K 3DS and 80K Vita.

Yeah, forgot the pie chart. Pie chart says 5:1 3DS:Vita, so any 3DS 500K or above (near certainty) gives Vita (total) of 100K or above. PSTV is Vita, after all.

 

[shinra-bansho]

And that makes things make more sense. Oh well.

And this made me also go back and check the last gen chart as well in case I did the same thing.

Corrected angles for that one are:
216.2 deg
122.9 deg
20.9 deg

My bad, gaf.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Oh jeeZe 3ds was around 810

So Vita is over 100k?

 

[Darklord]

No Dragon Age?

 

[NateDrake]

So Vita is over 100k?

If 3DS did 6x Vita like some have said then we are looking at around 135 for Vita. If it is 5x then Vita did an amazing 162.

 

[donny2112]

Oh jeeZe 3ds was around 810

O.O

Much better than the doomsday scenarios I was thinking about. Still really bad YOY and probably part of the reason New Nintendo 3DSXL was pushed to February, but better than these ruminations were putting me at. That means Vita was ~150K (including PSTV), too!

Edit:
Also means 360 was > 100K + Wii + DS. Not surprising, but that's a lower limit, at least.

 

[Game Guru]

You make good points, but when the margin is big between them in both November and December, don't you think that should concern Sony?

They are the biggest months of the year gaming-wise after all.

Not really, since Sony does have the rest of the world on lock. Sony's goal with the PS4 in the US isn't to win, but to keep Xbox One from having a large enough lead that it counteracts PS4's lead in the rest of the world.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

No Dragon Age?

Somewhere between 800 to 900K. Sold majority on PS4.'

O.O

Much better than the doomsday scenarios I was thinking about. Still really bad YOY and probably part of the reason New Nintendo 3DSXL was pushed to February, but better than these ruminations were putting me at. That means Vita was ~160K (including PSTV), too!

 

[vinnygambini]

Oh jeeZe 3ds was around 810

Predictions: [3DS] 636k

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

I thought you would of liked my bunny donny

 

[FinalStageBoss]

You make good points, but when the margin is big between them in both November and December, don't you think that should concern Sony?

They are the biggest months of the year gaming-wise after all.

Sony just sold a million consoles without a price drop in NA. I think they are more than happy with that. They need to make money, not win NPD bragging rights.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Oh jeeZe 3ds was around 810

Thanks! I was hoping you'd chime in sooner haha =).

3DS = 810K
PSV + TV = 150K (still higher than I expected... cool?)

Vita is up YoY in December. Ring the bells for SmokeyDave!!!!

 

[Vena]

My bad, gaf.

You have failed us for the last time!

Oh jeeZe 3ds was around 810

Thats... a lot better than I expected. In fact, given the year we're in and the age of the 3DS, I'd say its even good.

 

[allan-bh]

PSV + TV = 150K (still higher than I expected... cool?)

~130K for Vita alone?

 

[vinnygambini]

You have failed us for the last time!

I think you quoted the wrong person, isn't that shinra's lol

 

[hodayathink]

Thanks! I was hoping you'd chime in sooner haha =).

3DS = 810K
PSV + TV = 150K (still higher than I expected... cool?)

Vita is up YoY in December. Ring the bells for SmokeyDave!!!!

That makes me wish they'd at least bite the bullet and pay for everyone to stock it. There's a lot of people that don't realize the reason the Vita numbers were atrocious as opposed to the very bad they should have been was because even if you wanted one, for about half the year it was near impossible to find the thing in stock at retail.

 

[donny2112]

I thought you would of liked my bunny donny

The eyes on the hat blink with the girl's eyes. Ever watch Garfield & Friends? Remember the duck's inner tube that he always wore?

 

[Vena]

Sony just sold a million consoles without a price drop in NA. I think they are more than happy with that. They need to make money, not win NPD bragging rights.

There were a lot of unofficial price drops and updated bundles.

~130K for Vita alone?

Wouldn't be surprised, we had the BL Bundle and the launch of the 2000 standalone, so you have a lot of possible/probable double-dips to inflate numbers.

I think you quoted the wrong person, isn't that shinra's lol

That was quite intentional.

 

[Mpl90]

Cream, don't know if you answered this question, but Retro remix total is for NES Remix 1+2 on Wii U and Ultimate NES Remix on 3DS or is it one of them?

 

[Bitanator]

Vita limps to a hearty holiday

 

[vinnygambini]

The eyes on the hat blink with the girl's eyes. Ever watch Garfield & Friends? Remember the duck's inner tube that he always wore?

this cutie?

 

[Aquamarine]

cod aw dec = 2.84 million including bundles

this is up from ghosts's 2.79 million december 2013


cod aw rebounded from november's -24% decline