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[ZhugeEX]

Hi all,

I made this recently and thought it might be a useful comparison tool for those who are interested in aligned launch sales of each console. The first graph shows aligned launch sales for PS2, PS3, PS4, Xbox, Xbox 360, Xbox One, Nintendo Gamecube, Wii and Wii U.

It's a bit messy so I've created additional graphs which show less data in a cleaner format.

Please take note that -

• The below shows cumulative console shipments for the first 50 months since launch
• Data is provided via manufacturers and market research companies
• Launches are aligned from month 1
• Shipment data covers all territories (worldwide shipments)
• This table covers consoles from Gen 6, Gen 7 and Gen 8 only

Please also understand that because it is an aligned launch graph that it means for example the PS3 is shown as outselling the Xbox 360 below but the Xbox 360 actually launched a year below PS3 and had a year + 10 million sales headstart. What this does tell us is that PS3 sold faster in the same amount of time and closed the gap relatively quickly early on.

Please take a look-

GEN 6, 7 & 8 Cumulative Hardware Shipments for first 50 months.

GEN 6 Cumulative Hardware Shipments for first 50 months.

GEN 7 Cumulative Hardware Shipments for first 50 months.

GEN 8 Cumulative Hardware Shipments for first 50 months.

PlayStation 2, 3 & 4 Cumulative Hardware Shipments for first 50 months.

Xbox, Xbox 360 & Xbox One Cumulative Hardware Shipments for first 50 months.

Nintendo Gamecube, Wii & Wii U Cumulative Hardware Shipments for first 50 months.

 

[Enter the Dragon Punch]

Very positive trends for the PS4 and One, both above their previous two consoles.

Still... PS4 doing better than PS2 so far in shipments is mindblowing.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Very positive trends for the PS4 and One, both above their previous two consoles.

Still... PS4 doing better than PS2 so far in shipments is mindblowing.

Well PS2's first 7 months was Japan only and the PS2 was supply constrained early on so was not able to fully capitalise on hardware sales till after 2001.

The PS4 matching Wii sales is what's mindblowing. Of course this won't last.

 

[Alchemy]

I would love to see the PS1 numbers on there. Seems like everyone forgets it sold 102 million units, outselling every Nintendo console ever including the Wii (by around 1 million units). Would be interesting to compare the system trajectories, PS1 sales probably just last forever while the Wii sold and died faster.

 

[Enter the Dragon Punch]

Well PS2's first 7 months was Japan only and the PS2 was supply constrained early on so was not able to fully capitalise on hardware sales till after 2001.

The PS4 matching Wii sales is what's mindblowing. Of course this won't last.

What makes you think it won't last? As long as quality games keep coming out for it and in higher quantities, shouldn't it do just fine on this track?

 

[ZhugeEX]

What makes you think it won't last? As long as quality games keep coming out for it and in higher quantities, shouldn't it do just fine on this track?

Sorry, I should clarify. I mean PS4 matching Wii sales worldwide won't last.

PS4 being the market leader this generation by a big margin is a certainty.

 

[The End]

PS2 was very supply constrained at launch. You couldn't walk into a store and expect them to have PS2s in stock until at least March of 2001.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

What makes you think it won't last? As long as quality games keep coming out for it and in higher quantities, shouldn't it do just fine on this track?

Probably not, as the Wii sold to a much wider audience. Anything is possible though. Maybe Morpheus will be a breakout hit with gamers and non-gamers alike.

 

[ZhugeEX]

I would love to see the PS1 numbers on there. Seems like everyone forgets it sold 102 million units, outselling every Nintendo console ever including the Wii (by around 1 million units). Would be interesting to compare the system trajectories, PS1 sales probably just last forever while the Wii sold and died faster.

Would you like a PS1, PS2, Wii graph?

 

[Wynnebeck]

Zhuge doing the Lord's work. Do you expect the PS4 and Xbone to accelerate in growth around this fall? It seems both PS2 and 360 sold very well at their 36 month marks.

 

[Natureboy99]

Well PS2's first 7 months was Japan only and the PS2 was supply constrained early on so was not able to fully capitalise on hardware sales till after 2001.

The PS4 matching Wii sales is what's mindblowing. Of course this won't last.

Really curious to see the Morpheus effect.

 

[impact]

So basically things are looking great this gen for both MS and Sony.

 

[Bsigg12]

So basically things are looking great this gen for both MS and Sony.

Yea pretty much.

Those plateaus for the Wii U are devastating.

 

[loaf of bread]

Well PS2's first 7 months was Japan only and the PS2 was supply constrained early on so was not able to fully capitalise on hardware sales till after 2001.

The PS4 matching Wii sales is what's mindblowing. Of course this won't last.

It'll still probably end up beating it out eventually even if it slows down pace a bit due to Wii sales plateauing. PS traditionally have decent legs past the generation end. If I recall PS2 got a good 30-40 mil after gen 7 started.

 

[TimeEffect]

PS4 doing Wii numbers is pretty amazing....surely it wont match or exceed Wii though..right? Seeing as Xbox One is a direct competitor.

 

[TGO]

Well PS2's first 7 months was Japan only and the PS2 was supply constrained early on so was not able to fully capitalise on hardware sales till after 2001.

The PS4 matching Wii sales is what's mindblowing. Of course this won't last.

You expecting the PS4 to have a shorter life span then the Wii?
the Wii sold a shit load but it also fizzled out fast too, something I don't see the PS4 doing doing.

 

[Death2494]

Very positive trends for the PS4 and One, both above their previous two consoles.

Still... PS4 doing better than PS2 so far in shipments is mindblowing.

So we were able to determine the split between Xbox One and xbox 360 from the quarterly reports. Links would be amazing.

 

[IdreamofHIME]

Insane that PS4 is tracking GCN/Xbox lifetime numbers already.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Zhuge doing the Lord's work. Do you expect the PS4 and Xbone to accelerate in growth around this fall? It seems both PS2 and 360 sold very well at their 36 month marks.

Yes, and I expect 2016 to be the peak year for both based on current conditions however I can see this changing should Morpheus take off. Right now my thoughts towards Morpheus and the effects it'll have on console sales is conservative.

Really curious to see the Morpheus effect.

Me too

So basically things are looking great this gen for both MS and Sony.

Yes, The PS4 and Xbox One had amazing launches and their first 2 months worth of sales is higher than any other console. Whilst the PS4 has continued that trend the Xbox One has now fallen behind the PS2 whilst just remaining ahead of the PS3 and 360 at this time. I fully expect Xbox One to fall behind the PS3 and 360 (aligned) in time.

 

[Alchemy]

Would you like a PS1, PS2, Wii graph?

Yeah, that would be pretty rad. Top three systems from the last finished gens.

 

[ZhugeEX]

It'll still probably end up beating it out eventually even if it slows down pace a bit due to Wii sales plateauing. PS traditionally have decent legs past the generation end. If I recall PS2 got a good 30-40 mil after gen 7 started.

You expecting the PS4 to have a shorter life span then the Wii?
the Wii sold a shit load but it also fizzled out fast too, something I don't see the PS4 doing doing.

Sorry, I really should clarify this better.

What I mean is that I don't expect the PS4 to continue matching Wii shipments for the first 50 months. I expect that whilst the PS4 will still sell at a high rate it will fall under the Wii in terms of aligned launches.

Of course later on its life the PS4 may overtake the Wii. Especially as the Wii pretty much died after it reached 95m in such a short time.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Yeah, that would be pretty rad. Top three systems from the last finished gens.

Ok,

So here is the PS4 and Xbox One vs best selling consoles for last 3 gens, PS1 (102.49m), PS2 (155m+) and Wii (101m+)

Please note that launches are aligned and only the first 50 months of sales is shown.

 

[Bsigg12]

PS4 doing Wii numbers is pretty amazing....surely it wont match or exceed Wii though..right? Seeing as Xbox One is a direct competitor.

It's doubtful because the Wii caught a casual market that Sony and Microsoft have been clamoring for. It'll be interesting moving forward to see how they do though.

 

[ZhugeEX]

It's doubtful because the Wii caught a casual market that Sony and Microsoft have been clamoring for. It'll be interesting moving forward to see how they do though.

This is what the PS4 needs to do in order to match Wii over the next year. Lets just say the Wii is in a whole different league and for the PS4 to have matched it during the first 14 months is phenomenal.

 

[UraMallas]

Does that graph really show that 6 million Wii U's have been sold in 2 years? My word...

 

[Captain Zyrain]

I hate being colorblind.

 

[Kouriozan]

Damn at PS4 exploding like the Wii, they truly made the most attractive console.
It pays off to listen to the gamers.

 

[Cess007]

Does that graph really show that 6 million Wii U's have been sold in 2 years? My word...

Maybe i'm reading it wrong, but it isn't close to 10 million in the graph?

 

[ZhugeEX]

I hate being colorblind.

Sorry, I didn't take that into consideration. If you want the numbers or want me to explain something then let me know.

Maybe i'm reading it wrong, but it isn't close to 10 million in the graph?

Correct, 9.2 million units sold in 26 months.

 

[ascii42]

Ok,

So here is the PS4 and Xbox One vs best selling consoles for last 3 gens, PS1 (102.49m), PS2 (155m+) and Wii (101m+)

Please note that launches are aligned and only the first 50 months of sales is shown.

Wii vs PS1 is interesting to see because they wound up selling about the same amount, but had very different trajectories to get there.

 

[UraMallas]

Maybe i'm reading it wrong, but it isn't close to 10 million in the graph?

Correct, 9.2 million units sold in 26 months.

I was counting from the 2 months on. The big boom of about 3-4 million at launch and then it's just, like... yeah... 6 million in the next 24 months worldwide.

 

[Alchemy]

PS4 doing Wii numbers is pretty amazing....surely it wont match or exceed Wii though..right? Seeing as Xbox One is a direct competitor.

Short term I doubt the PS4 will match the rate that Wiis were sold, but the PS4 should easily surpass total lifetime sales. 101million is that impressive, and the PS3/360/Wii Gen had three strong competitors. This gen there are only really two, the PS4 and Xbox One and the PS4 is already outselling it world wide 2:1.

As for the casual market talk, keep in mind the PS1 and PS2 both outsold the Wii lifetime. Those were certainly mainstream, but I wouldn't say they were casual machines. Similar product positioning for the PS4, except PS4 sales are significantly better around launch. Like holy shit at that graph, the PS1 is so much lower at launch and the damn thing still pushed over 100 million. Crazy.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Wii vs PS1 is interesting to see because they wound up selling about the same amount, but had very different trajectories to get there.

Yup, the PS1 launched into a smaller console market as a new competitor and technically sales exploded, and for that time it really was the fastest selling console ever etc....

Obviously with the Wii there was a larger market to be had and it resonated with not just gamers but everyone, one interesting fact you may not know is that the Wii sold 85 million between 2006 to end of 2010 and just 16 million between 2011 to end of 2014.

I was counting from the 2 months on. The big boom of about 3-4 million at launch and then it's just, like... yeah... 6 million in the next 24 months worldwide.

Ah gotcha, Yup, just over 6 million sold in the first 2 years after the two month launch period.

 

[MikeE21286]

Wii U...

ooooof

PS4 reaching Wii levels is surprising. Not sure it will have the same legs but will be interesting to watch.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Sorry, I didn't take that into consideration. If you want the numbers or want me to explain something then let me know.

No worries, once I got to the sub-breakdown boxes it made it easier to discern, then I could use the shape of the line to figure it out.

My eyes apparently think everything reddish-pinkish-orangeish-greenish is all basically the same color!

Great info though.

I wonder what the total population was, who were in "shipping" countries during this time frame? For example, the world had roughly 6 billion people in 2000, somewhere north of 7.2 billion people last year.. but obviously that increase isn't in countries where these consoles are popular or even available.

But man, that Wii U.

 

[DragonSworne]

PS4 doing Wii numbers is pretty amazing....surely it wont match or exceed Wii though..right? Seeing as Xbox One is a direct competitor.

It won't match Wii because of Japan.

 

[El-Pistolero]

Sorry, I should clarify. I mean PS4 matching Wii sales worldwide won't last.

PS4 being the market leader this generation by a big margin is a certainty.

You mean that the PS4 will not replicate the 4 years burst that the Wii had enjoyed. As far as final numbers are concerned, I think that the PS4 may very well reach the 100 million buyers milestone over its lifeime.

Nevermind, it was clarified... ;-)

 

[barneystuta83]

Great insight, thanks for sharing.

Good on Microsoft and Sony for improving on their previous gen sales so far.

 

[Welfare]

So we were able to determine the split between Xbox One and xbox 360 from the quarterly reports. Links would be amazing.

Not so much "determine" but most likely scenario based on 360 drops in shipments during Q4 2013 and Q4 2014, NPD data showing sales slowing, and Microsoft saying that 360 sales fell sharply during the holidays compared to last year.

 

[Servbot24]

Still... PS4 doing better than PS2 so far in shipments is mindblowing.

PS2's success came in large part from its longevity. Greta initial numbers, but nothing about PS2's launch was insurmountable.

I wonder how long PS4 can keep it up. I have to think 100mil would be considered a huge success.

 

[KillerMan91]

PS2's success came in large part from its longevity. Greta initial numbers, but nothing about PS2's launch was insurmountable.

I wonder how long PS4 can keep it up. I have to think 100mil would be considered a huge success.

PS3 is about to hit 90 million. I think PS4 will reach 100 million quite easily in the end. Not PS2 numbers (155 million) but maybe something like ~120 million.

 

[Goodacre0081]

if MS didn't drop the price last holiday I assume the XB1 would have pretty much matched the 360 at that point.

 

[AP90]

Nice work! But I am also curious to see the end of the generation result as Wii sales were tremendous with 2 other serious competitors.. Were as PS4 only really has one competitor. Wish we could see numbers that reflected how many people from each loyal fan base jumped ship or how many people were able to purchase more than one console this Gen vs last gems.

I remember growing up me and my brother picked up Xbox og a year after release and that was the only console we had. As for the 360, I picked up 3years after release (part time job, car/saving for college was the reason why and I was saving for my first gaming PC to build). Now I have PC and only xb1. But I'm sure there are more people this Gen who cross buy because they are like me who grew up and now work and a can afford more consumerism.

Hopefully there are more gamers at the end of this Gen then the last!

 

[KillerMan91]

if MS didn't drop the price last holiday I assume the XB1 would have pretty much matched the 360 at that point.

Not to mention I really don't think staying ahead of early X360 sales is much of an feat. X360 was following original Xbox that did 24 million ww when Xbox One is following X360 that sold nearly 90 million ww. Brand should be way stronger now.

 

[AP90]

if MS didn't drop the price last holiday I assume the XB1 would have pretty much matched the 360 at that point.

And if they would have only bundled Kinect with console from the get go for $400 (loss leader), it may have been a better run than now... Maybe next Gen if they will learn to do what they did for Xbox og and 360 and ps3 did.. That is spend more on console hardware and etc, eat $70-100 of the cost and provide significantly better hardware.

 

[Natureboy99]

Wii U...

ooooof

PS4 reaching Wii levels is surprising. Not sure it will have the same legs but will be interesting to watch.

It won't without Morpheus being a hit i think.

 

[Josh5890]

I keep waiting for the PS4 sales to slow down (I'm not a hater. I bought my PS4 day 1. I'm just making an observation). Yet that black box continues to surprise me. Now that the PS4/X1 era is just starting to reach the beginning of its prime with the games coming out this year I expect PS4 sales to be steady. They don't even need a price point right now and they are still fine.

 

[Blanquito]

Great info, thanks.

Are you estimating XB1 WW sales? If so, what is the final number you're using?

(Hopefully I didn't miss you talking about this already. If you did, my apologies)

 

[Darknight]

Still remember people (mainly Nintendo diehards I supposed) predicting consoles were gonna fail horribly due to WiiU sales yet here we are.

I agree that PS4 is gonna keep tracking well but wont be able to reach Wii/PS2 levels. Surpass PS3/360 certainly but we'll see.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Still remember people (mainly Nintendo diehards I supposed) predicting consoles were gonna fail horribly due to WiiU sales yet here we are.

I agree that PS4 is gonna keep tracking well but wont be able to reach Wii/PS2 levels. Surpass PS3/360 certainly but we'll see.

What's sad in a way is that the Wii U actually had one of the best console launches of all time.... and then flopped. Badly.

if MS didn't drop the price last holiday I assume the XB1 would have pretty much matched the 360 at that point.

I would agree with you on this. The only reason the Xbox One is tracking ahead of the Xbox 360 at this point is due to the price cut and bundles. And that's not a good thing.

Great info, thanks.

Are you estimating XB1 WW sales? If so, what is the final number you're using?

(Hopefully I didn't miss you talking about this already. If you did, my apologies)

Sales are based off Microsoft figures, NPD figures, Gfk figures, Strategy Analytics figures and my own analysis. It's estimated that Xbox One sell in was around 11.5m-12.5m units at end of 2014.