Do we know if the costs are actually rising? I mean not every game is bigger than the last one
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Sony FY2014 Q4 (Jan-Mar 2015) Earnings (2.4m PS4 + 400k PS3, 450k PSP+PSV)
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TheStruggler
Report me for trolling ND/TLoU2 threads
when you think the next generation will start roughly?
The Abominable Snowman
Member
PS4 and Xbox One are both doing amazing! PS4 moreso! I'm happy this gen is taking off so fast.
Felessan
Member
Market itself collapsing, so there is not much Sony can do there.
They are expecting sales in yen to drop 2% even though
a) USDJPY currency gain is 10%, this will impact sales from US favorably
b) Software and Network (those two are around half of sales) are bound to increase
So they expecting quite large drop in sales for hardware, it can be attributed to lower PS3/Vita sales and/or reduction of PS4 price.
So it's really down to just how conservative they are with all their predictions. And they are conservative judging from past experience.
Aceofspades
Banned
60m for X1 is hugely optimistic, it has been hovering around 10-13m for a 1.5 which is launching period with front loaded sales. I say 40m max
Sounds nasty, hope it isn't too contagious as I'm due to take part in a charity fun run near Christmas and I hear that condition affects your ability to run properly.
But we don't know what Sony's holiday season line-up looks like, and we won't know until after E3. So can you kindly stop.
Initial cost will always be higher as soon as a generation starts.
But I reckon that it's as much about instant gratification in someone's wallet that will decide if costs are rising.
Ninja Theory seems to manage. Looking great even though they are only 13 people but Hellblade needs to come out before we can judge the quality.
John Bender
Banned
Not for the game itself, because it could go under, when all the other big publishers are releasing their games all at the same time.
It's nice when the game itself has good sales numbers = money!
The PS4 will sell anyway, no matter what.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
Someone correct me, but I guess network is only PS+ subs.
But yeah, correct strategy would be to take a hit by slashing PS4 price significantly ($100) and then enjoy a huge amount of software and network revenue, which is where their profit lays.
For comparison with previous generations:
Home console
2600/INT/CV: 25+3+2 = 30
NES/SMS/7800: 61+13+4 = 78
SNES/MD/PCE: 49+31+6 = 86
PS1/N64/SAT: 102+33+9 = 144
PS2/XBX/GC/DC: 155+24+22+9 = 210
WII/PS3/360: 101+87+84 = 277
PS4/ONE/WIIU: ?+?+? = ?
Handheld console
GB/GG/WS: 119+11+3 = 133
GBA: 81 = 81
DS/PSP/NG: 154+80+2 = 236
3DS/VITA: ?+? = ?
unknownstranger
Member
I don't think they really need to do one that big. I'm expecting a $50 price cut at E3 to give them a boost through the summer and then maybe a $299 PS4 deal during the holidays.
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
They went up against Halo with a broken Driveclub and a broken LBP3 as exclusives, PS4 did okay in that 'battle', I think.
With the state of the Halo series (it's never going to be as big as it was) and the competition from Battlefront, Blops, and Ubi smashes alone, I think 'Halo fever' is more likely to be a 'mild chill'.
Going by previous exchange rates of the $:-
PS2 launched at $400
PS3 at $1000
So PS4 is way cheaper than the PS3 but still super expensive for a country like India especially where plenty of people still consider games to be a kiddy thing and won't even consider paying anything more than $10-15 for games which is why piracy is so rampant here
Saint of Killers
Member
People sugesting price-cut incoming for PS4 based on OP info... Is that nailed on or a informed guess?
Informed guess: more units sold *but* less income in their forecast for FY15 can only mean the selling price will take a hit.
Prototype Viktor
Member
morpheus is early/mid 2016
That sounds reasonable from a technology POV as well. There is no point in a new generation until 4k adoption is high enough and the hardware to power it is cheap enough. I would expect that to happen around 2020 with 10nm parts. If they struggle to shrink from 14nm in the same way they struggled to drop from 28nm it could take longer.
Seems a bit conservative, but all right. I think SCE should try to more agressive with getting marketshare with their own first-party games in the games publishing business.
Hopefully the TV's and smartphones will increase. Their 2015 UHD/4K TV with Android TV, HDR etc definitely looks top-notch. And the Xperias could get a nice boost with the Xperia Z4/Z5 and with James Bond using the Xperia Z4 in Spectre.
Definitely not, the Xperia Z-series have been highly acclaimed. They won severeal iF Design awards and Red Dot awards.
If anything, it's their home consoles that needs work, PS4 is still pretty limited in functionality.
Hopefully the TV's and smartphones will increase. Their 2015 UHD/4K TV with Android TV, HDR etc definitely looks top-notch. And the Xperias could get a nice boost with the Xperia Z4/Z5 and with James Bond using the Xperia Z4 in Spectre.
Definitely not, the Xperia Z-series have been highly acclaimed. They won severeal iF Design awards and Red Dot awards.
If anything, it's their home consoles that needs work, PS4 is still pretty limited in functionality.
On top of what verandas had suggested/hinted at
KillerMan91
Member
You really think PS4 is going to sell less than PS3? Come on. PS4 is ridiculously ahead of PS3 launches aligned. In US alone it's going to sell far more than PS3 did. Also WiiU and Vita both have probably passed already that 10 million mark. Somewhere around 15 million is more likely for both.
I think it's going to be a shorter gen
John Bender
Banned
It is also a lot easier to make cheaper than the PS3 so by the time the PS5 is released they could have a $149 price PS4 with a drop down to $99 shortly after. It will do like the PS2 did and sell in emerging markets long after the next gen console is released. If the PS5 has proper backwards compatibility (which if it remains on X86 then it will be trivially easy to ensure) then PS4 sales will probably decline faster than PS2 sales did in the 1st world markets but I still think 120m + is an achieveable number when it is all said and done.
spatenfloot
Member
I believe most of those sales are in Asia.
Eolz
Member
Nintendo will start it earlier than that, and I doubt the two others will wait until 2020 as well...
I think those games will increase PS4's appeal to mainstream consumers probably similarly as much as a mid/high-profile exclusive.
Since this is a financials thread and not a publisher line-up thread (or you know 'list war' thread), his comment makes sense I think.
Swass
Member
I don't think $50 will have much of an impact, now $100 would be huge, now the console is in the $200 range, very attractive. Also Sony has always cut $100 on the first cut so there's that.
You also force the competition into a corner, they can't very well go much lower and the public perception is the Xbox One should be cheaper than the PS4..
The PlayStation 2 launch price is almost as low as the current PlayStation 3 price so that helps solve my question. It is plausible the PlayStation 3 is dropping off so quickly compared to its predecessor because it hasn't managed to get the price low enough to fill that gap while the PlayStation 4 is cannibalizing the high end segment.
I see knack on the tree
Saint of Killers
Member
This definitely shows that PlayStation isn't a golden goose or magic money tree, like some people sometimes seem to suggest on this forum.
On another note, I kind of hope they'll acquire Vaio again one day. Or that the now independent Vaio is going to ship laptops worldwide or at least Europe.
Huh? PS4 will sell continue to sell just as well and probably outsell XB1 worldwide regardless of Halo 5. It comes down to brand and momentum really.
Don't get me wrong, Halo is a huge franchise, so it's definitely going to have a significant impact. High-profile exclusive games like Halo, Uncharted, Mario, Zelda, Ratchet & Clank, Gran Turismo do have an impact, but the PS4 is still going to remain popular because well the console itself is just popular.
And yeah, don't foget Ratchet & Clank this holiday.
On another note, I kind of hope they'll acquire Vaio again one day. Or that the now independent Vaio is going to ship laptops worldwide or at least Europe.
Huh? PS4 will sell continue to sell just as well and probably outsell XB1 worldwide regardless of Halo 5. It comes down to brand and momentum really.
Don't get me wrong, Halo is a huge franchise, so it's definitely going to have a significant impact. High-profile exclusive games like Halo, Uncharted, Mario, Zelda, Ratchet & Clank, Gran Turismo do have an impact, but the PS4 is still going to remain popular because well the console itself is just popular.
And yeah, don't foget Ratchet & Clank this holiday.
Nintendo may but I do not see their next console being much more powerful, if at all, than the PS4 so it is not really going to offer anything new from that perspective.
As far as a short gen goes I really doubt it. I do not see hardware being powerful enough and cheap enough to run 4k native resolutions much before 2020. It may happen if VR takes off but I think the hardware required to do it properly is not that much different to the hardware needed to do 4k properly so the timeline for a good implementation is not going to be that much different IMO.
Nightengale
Member
I don't like to get into the whole line-up thing, but not every business decision in the world is centered around "my big game X for fall vs your big game Y for fall."
Sony will have games for fall, as par for course of them simply having games throughout the year as part of their existing approach to first-party line-up throughout the year. But that doesn't mean there needs to be a "competitor to Halo" sales-wise for fall.
If they sell less than Xbox in US/UK for the holiday season because of that, then it happens. Big effing deal.
Sony will have games for fall, as par for course of them simply having games throughout the year as part of their existing approach to first-party line-up throughout the year. But that doesn't mean there needs to be a "competitor to Halo" sales-wise for fall.
If they sell less than Xbox in US/UK for the holiday season because of that, then it happens. Big effing deal.
Ratchet & Clank isn't that big, anymore. IIRC, latest entries didn't sell that much, unfortunately.
flaviusconstantius
Member
US sales last year I believe were about 370K. That + Japan gives a bit over 1.5M. Assume a conservative 175%USA for Europe that gives us about 650K there, and 2.15M for Japan+USA+Europe.
Felessan
Member
Shorter gap between generations or shorter lifetime of PS4?
Both PS1 and PS2 had 12 years of lifetime (twice as much as respective generation gap). PS3 will have more or less the same lifetime, as it doesn't really have good legs now.
If PS4 price will be scaled the same way as PS1/PS2 (and there are seems some scaling problems with PS3 as it stuck at the same price for too long) I think it will achieve sales at least somewhere between PS1 and PS2 (~120 mil)
Nightengale
Member
Well, there hasn't been a flagship R&C since a Crack in Time. Into the Nexus was a $30 budget release.
With there being a movie out, presumably within the same time window, one would think that it'll be more prominently marketed than the rest of the recent entries.
With 27 millions units sold, it's still Sony Computer Entertainment's biggest franchise*
I think if it isn't 'big' anymore, then they can make it big again. Since SCE don't have many other first-party games for the holiday season, I think they can definitely spend a big part of their first-party advertising budget on Ratchet & Clank.
There's no more Uncharted 4 to overshadow Ratchet & Clank in terms of first-party games for the holiday season.
The Ratchet & Clank CGI animated film will also contribute to expand the reach and publicity of the Ratchet & Clank franchise. Personally, I'm looking forward to the film a lot. Might be one of the few films that I'm going to watch on day one theatrical release date this year.
Also, yeah the past 3 Ratchet & Clank titles were budget titles. This one is presumably going to be a flagship $60 title.
*Besides Gran Turismo
yurinka
Member
I'd bet Morpheus + Vita 3000 + PS4 2000 + lots of big internal games under development, way more than released this year