• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Study: Obese men and women have <1% chance of attaining a normal weight (mod edit OP)

Status
Not open for further replies.
What it does suggest is that willpower, in this regard, is mostly an illusion.

People can "just loose weight, it's so simple" in the same way it's simple to rise out of poverty. "Just go back to college, get a good degree, and then aggressively go job hunting. It's really straightforward!"

Very well put.
 

Chris R

Member
I'm down 30lb this year so far, but I still have another 40 to reach what I was at in 2012. One thing that has made it a little harder this time is that I'm living in an apartment above someone so I can't jump around and do T25 like I could when I was living in a house :\

Still need to get out and bike more
 

Reebot

Member
The study also does not take into account those who put the weight back on, which is the vast majority.

So you have a <1% chance of losing the weight, and then a tiny chance of keeping it off long term.

You seem to be arguing a lot in this thread and I'm not entirely sure why. I'd hope you support encouraging obese people to loose weight, and the physical mechanics behind it don't inhibit the vast majority of humanity.

Publicly announcing misleading information like this does no good whatsoever. Everyone can loose weight, and we should be cheering on those who choose to do so - not spouting nonsense comparing it to lottery odds, and implying they're a lost cause.
 
I did it but it was the most difficult thing I have ever done and would not have been possible if I didn't have a bunch of expendable income. personal training and healthy food is not cheap.
 
I'm curious about this, in this time period, were you still doing a caloric deficient diet and not seeing any results anymore, or were you having a hard time keeping/doing a caloric deficient diet?

I was keeping steady. What I did wasn't... healthy really. I was doing ~1200 calories a day for two months.

After that I decided to level out and eat normal and make sure to not over eat. I kept strict logs of what I ate for the day and had a cheat day every Sunday for football.

Now even as I try to lose weight again, I find it more hard. I don't want to do the extreme diet again, but it's simply balancing a, "I'm better now, one more thing isn't going to ruin the day..." mentality and, "you've been eating like shit for the past two weeks, time to chill out and diet better for a few weeks".

I'm constantly going between those things and my weight fluctuation shows it as I go between 183 to 188.
 

KingGondo

Banned
Sorry the rest of my post blows out your cute pithy remark.
No, you're right. I should have dignified this:
Publicly condoning defeatism does nothing to help anyone.

With more than the short response it deserves.

A scientific study with a large sample size that gives certain results isn't "defeatism," it's facts. Sorry.
 

entremet

Member
The biggest issue with losing weight is our environments are not conducive to it.

--We rely on cars too much

--We sit all day

--Most food is higher in calories and portion sizes than 30 years ago.

--We have sedentary hobbies--TV, gaming, internet.

So the default setup is much more easier to be overweight.

Contrast that with losing weight.

--I have to monitor my calories and weight my food

--I have to switch to a standing or treadmill desk

--I need to avoid most fast food and cook from scratch mostly

--I need to have active hobbies or a gym regiment.

The amount of discipline it takes to stay lean requires a lot of willpower, which is a finite resource.

Most American use their willpower on their jobs, so when they come home, they don't want to workout or cook much.

Also a lot of it is terrible urban planning and car culture.
 

guek

Banned
The flaw in this study is that this is based off of medical health records. Physicians are required to document whatever the patients tell them but just because they claim they're restricting their diet and exercising regularly doesn't mean they actually are. Studies show people regularly underestimate the number of calories they consume daily.

I'm not saying losing weight when you're obese isn't crazy difficult, but this idea that your odds of losing weight when obese with diet and exercise being <1% is false.
 
This, followed by this:


I dunno man. Sounds hard to me.

It was difficult, but I view keeping the weight off to be a far more difficult challenge, as that's going to be a lifetime commitment.

The best thing about going on my diet was learning portion control. I learned what a table spoon was, I learned how much six ounces was. I learned what foods to simply avoid as they didn't fill me up and were high in calories.

Learning about portions is what's keeping the weight off today, I know when I'm pigging out and going way over board. Four years ago I had no idea.
 

Reebot

Member
I knew what a calorie was, I just didn't know that it was pretty much solely responsible for weight loss. I didn't know weight loss was so simple.

Oh I see. In which case I agree entirely. Education about calories often comes across hopeless misguided or even outright wrong. For such a basic, easy idea many schools, business, and (of course) "fitness" conmen do their best to confuse the concept.
 

Rich!

Member
I guess it is very psychological at its core

I mean, I could easily go a whole day eating nary a banana. But could someone else? Maybe, maybe not.

For example today I ate a slice of quiche and a banana. Piece of salmon with some potatoes for dinner. I really honestly do not need anything more.
 

Tagyhag

Member
What it does suggest is that willpower, in this regard, is mostly an illusion.

People can "just loose weight, it's so simple" in the same way it's simple to rise out of poverty. "Just go back to college, get a good degree, and then aggressively go job hunting. It's really straightforward!"

Agreed.

I can understand why the percentage would be so minimal, I would assume that you'd have to have low willpower in general to attain obese status, so losing it would be incredibly difficult.

I just hope that people don't end up believing that you can't lose weight just by eating right because of the study.
 

Alexlf

Member
That's not really misleading. Its a health problem with supposedly the simplest possible solution ever. The fact that only 1% of people manage to deal with it is a problem.

I'd certainly say the press around the study is misleading, as we can't draw any solid conclusions about the difficulty of weight loss unless we know actively how many people are trying. Unless this and a few other things are addressed in the study you can't really say much about what they are presenting at all.
 
D

Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
I always hate how results of surveys are immediately translated into "chance" or "probability" as if things just happen to people independent of their actions.

It is clear that the current wisdom and common advice for weight loss is a dismal failure, though, and stuff like this helps demonstrate that fact.
 
You seem to be arguing a lot in this thread and I'm not entirely sure why. I'd hope you support encouraging obese people to loose weight, and the physical mechanics behind it don't inhibit the vast majority of humanity.

Publicly announcing misleading information like this does no good whatsoever. Everyone can loose weight, and we should be cheering on those who choose to do so - not spouting nonsense comparing it to lottery odds, and implying they're a lost cause.
he probably does support obese people losing weight, just not the way people do it nowadays. By calling them fat asses and making them feel bad about themselves. That usually just ends up with them being fatter.
 
You seem to be arguing a lot in this thread and I'm not entirely sure why. I'd hope you support encouraging obese people to loose weight, and the physical mechanics behind it don't inhibit the vast majority of humanity.

Publicly announcing misleading information like this does no good whatsoever. Everyone can loose weight, and we should be cheering on those who choose to do so - not spouting nonsense comparing it to lottery odds, and implying they're a lost cause.

Oh please.

The attitude you take, while fine for encouraging people who are currently overweight, only serves to send the message to society that "What you are doing is fine. You don't need to make any changes of help overweight people since their problems are caused by themselves, and all they need to do is try harder to lose weight".

Fact is fact. The Obesity problem will not change as long as that perception exists.


You can sit on your high horse and pretend that "encouragement" and "cheering" is the answer, but statistics say otherwise.
 
I stopped drinking Gatorade and eating baked goods and im down about 20 pounds since middle of May. Also eating salads with lean meat on it, no dressing or anything like that obviously and I went back to working out.
Curbing my appetite was one of the harder things but I have that under control now.

Honestly I thought it was hard at first but now not so much.
 

Reebot

Member
A scientific study with a large sample size that gives certain results isn't "defeatism," it's facts. Sorry.

Being a study and the size of the sample are completely irrelevant as to whether its defeatist.

Nice try, but you should probably double check the meaning of words before trying this snappy dismissals.
 

Klyka

Banned
What it does suggest is that willpower, in this regard, is mostly an illusion.

People can "just loose weight, it's so simple" in the same way it's simple to rise out of poverty. "Just go back to college, get a good degree, and then aggressively go job hunting. It's really straightforward!"

But doesn't rising out of poverty depend on a lot more and different circumstances than weight loss which truly is fully in your hand?

Every employer can refuse me a job, but no one but me can refuse to change my food consumption.
 

Nivash

Member
The flaw in this study is that this is based off of medical health records. Physicians are required to document whatever the patients tell them but just because they claim they're restricting their diet and exercising regularly doesn't mean they actually are. Studies show people regularly underestimate the number of calories they consume daily.

I'm not saying losing weight when you're obese isn't crazy difficult, but this idea that your odds of losing weight when obese with diet and exercise being <1% is false.

That's not a flaw. The study does not discriminate between people actively trying to lose weight and those who don't. All it does is look at whether obese people lose weight or not. If the reason they aren't losing weight is because they aren't trying then it just proves that our current efforts to promote weight loss fail at the most basic level - getting people on board to even try them. It proves that said efforts are fundamentally flawed and that we need to find a new approach.
 

HUELEN10

Member
For the obese out there, you can do it!

I was a 350 pound lard ass, and am currently 170 and still fighting to be medically underweight. Running and diet is all it takes, and time. You can do it, never give up!
 
I stopped drinking Gatorade and eating baked goods and im down about 20 pounds since middle of May. Also eating salads with lean meat on it, no dressing or anything like that obviously and I went back to working out.
Curbing my appetite was one of the harder things but I have that under control now.

Honestly I thought it was hard at first but now not so much.

More dressings aren't that bad, two table spoons is the average serving size and that's a shit ton of dressing.

Just avoid the really heavy stuff, I found that italian dressing is light and gives the salad great flavor
 
What it does suggest is that willpower, in this regard, is mostly an illusion.

People can "just loose weight, it's so simple" in the same way it's simple to rise out of poverty. "Just go back to college, get a good degree, and then aggressively go job hunting. It's really straightforward!"
The inability to lose weight is almost entirely a psychological issue whereas rising out of poverty has dozens of external factors that makes it far more complicated. Anyone can get out and run even if they find it difficult to afford healthier foods whereas not everyone can pay for college while working(if they don't get refused work in the first place) so that they don't get kicked out on the street.

I realize it's not meant to be 1:1 but it's not really comparable at all.
 

Rich!

Member
All the best ways of losing weight cost money and time. That's the real problem.

I spent considerably less when losing weight, as I wasn't buying so much crap.

Today I spend a fraction of what I spent before as I almost consistently home cook and rarely order from takeaways.
 

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
But doesn't rising out of poverty depend on a lot more and different circumstances than weight loss which truly is fully in your hand?

Every employer can refuse me a job, but no one but me can refuse to change my food consumption.

unless you're on food stamps
 

Partition

Banned
So you have a <1% chance of losing the weight, and then a tiny chance of keeping it off long term.

No.... It wouldn't be 1% if everyone sampled in this study was trying to lose weight. It would be signicantly higher. And the percentage of those who kept it off would be greater than 1.
 

Nocebo

Member
A far more likely scenario than "99% of fat people are too lazy to lose the weight" to be that the actual difficulty of losing weight in today's society is unreasonably high to the point where it is virtually impossible for many.
How can fat people be lazy if continuously overeating takes considerably more effort than not eating? I'd say that instead of being lazy they are not lazy enough and are actually way too active. When it comes to eating at least.
 

Reebot

Member
he probably does support obese people losing weight, just not the way people do it nowadays. By calling them fat asses and making them feel bad about themselves. That usually just ends up with them being fatter.

Any person who's not a complete asshole would agree with that.

Oh please.

The attitude you take, while fine for encouraging people who are currently overweight, only serves to send the message to society that "What you are doing is fine. You don't need to make any changes of help overweight people since their problems are caused by themselves, and all they need to do is try harder to lose weight".

Fact is fact. The Obesity problem will not change as long as that perception exists.

Hard for me to answer since I think you're just conflating me with someone else. Take a moment to re-read what I wrote.

I never said that society doesn't need to change. Nor did I ever indicate we're properly confronting the obesity problem. Multiple times in this thread, including my initial response to you, I indicated change was needed.

I know you have strong feelings on the matter, but I really don't get your posts.
 
J

Jpop

Unconfirmed Member
....bububu fat shamer gaf told me that all those lazy fat people need to do is eat less.

Easy peasy!

Don't do this.

Eating healthier and working out will allow over weight people to lose weight. Often times the hardest thing to overcome is a psychological barrier that causes them to gain weight again or not being able to put up with a healthier diet or a workout plan.
 

Aikidoka

Member
But 53 per cent of people who had achieved this regained the weight within a year, and after five years, only 22 per cent had maintained their weight loss.

is it just that they lose motivation and stop adhering to their diet and exercise regimen? That would mean that diet and exercise do work but some psychological factors take-over. The study can't really be helpful unless they know the daily activities during the weight loss and after. But, instead of just focusing on prevention, perhaps these psychological factors should be a focus too (there's certainly overlap).

Annoyingly, I can't find a link to the actual journal article in that newspiece
 

ZeroGravity

Member
The bad habits that cause people to get fat in the first place are the same bad habits that make it difficult to lose that weight.
 
How can fat people be lazy if continuously overeating takes considerably more effort than not eating? I'd say that instead of being lazy they are not lazy enough and are actually way too active. When it comes to eating at least.

Hope you don't smoke. That strawman looks dangerous.
 

entremet

Member
I still maintain a lot of the lack of success is the lack of adequate support structures.

If you're obese and your family is obese and your friends are obese, it's gonna be hard.

It's why I always recommend stuff like FitGAF or online communities for accountability.

Your social circle can easily derail your efforts.
 

marrec

Banned
I am the 1%.

I'd be interested to see why and how they gained the weight back, the article fails to mention that.

I still maintain a lot of the lack of success is the lack of adequate support structures.

If you're obese and your family is obese and your friends are obese, it's gonna be hard.

It's why I always recommend stuff like FitGAF or online communities for accountability.

I'd add to the the terrible practices that food producers are allowed to get away with.

We need to regulate food more closely so that people have less opportunity to get fat and fat people stop drinking so much of their calories.
 

Vanish

Member
What it does suggest is that willpower, in this regard, is mostly an illusion.

People can "just lose weight, it's so simple" in the same way it's simple to rise out of poverty. "Just go back to college, get a good degree, and then aggressively go job hunting. It's really straightforward!"

is that a fair comparison? For most people to lose weight, you have to be dedicated and eat less and maybe exercise more. An individual has full control of that. Getting out of poverty relies on a million factors, with many of them being out of a person's hands.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
It's also something you can rebound back into so easily. For an obese person the only solution is a drastic change in lifestyle, which is basically destroying the norm and rebuilding it.

It's the hardest addiction to kick, we've always known this on some level. A smoker can stop smoking and put barriers to prevent them from smoking, same with a drug taker and a gambler.

Someone with a food addiction still has to fucking eat every day of their lives. which is why it requires dedication. Your eating what your addicted to but not too much bro, not too much.
 

Alexlf

Member
Man oh man, do so little people read the entire thread?

This study does next to nothing about talking towards the difficulty in losing weight.

It tracks a huge group of people, if which anywhere between all and none could be trying to lose weight.

What it IS saying is that having GPs recommend that people lose weight and giving them tips DOES NOT overall have a large effect on weight loss of the general public.

So people should absolutely not be looking at this and seeing that they have a "<1% chance" of losing weight, it's extremely disingenuous and is NOT what the study is saying.
 

AnAnole

Member
Given the incredibly low odds of the obese returning to a normal weight (especially the morbidly obese), I think it's time we stop looking at body weight as a function of willpower.
The simple fact is, you just cannot delete all the extra fat cells. Once obesity is established, a new set point will be established, and the brain will do everything that it can to return the individual back to the their set-point if they try to deviate too far below it. In fact, putting an obese person on a diet will eventually elicit a response that mirrors starvation in non-obese people, well before that obese person attains a normal weight. This is especially true of the morbidly obese.

The simple fact is this: fat cells, when shrunken, are much less efficient at releasing leptin, which means that when you compare two people of the same fat mass, but one has lost weight to get there, the one who has lost weight will have less circulating leptin. Leptin is the hormone that signals long-term nutritional status and is released by fat cells, where it circulates in the blood and crosses the blood-brain barrier so it can signal to a special area of the hypothalamus that you're fed. When the leptin signal becomes weak, the body responds by influencing a number of downstream factors that cause a significant reduction in energy expenditure and an increase in appetite. This increase in appetite can be measured across several domains, including physical hunger, food seeking and the response visual food stimuli. Bottom line: a person's normal weight is controlled by powerful homeostatic mechanisms that are almost invariably impossible to overcome in the long-run without drastric interventions. At best, an obese person can expect to obtain a weight loss on the order of 5%, which, fortunately, can substantially improve metabolic health, assuming they can maintain that 5% weight loss, along with a healthy lifestyle.

If you have the time, you should watch the following video by Jeffrey Friedman, who is one of the top researchers in the field of obesity and is the co-discoverer of leptin, for which he has won many prestigious awards.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pBj0wy35A8
 

marrec

Banned
Wait wait wait wait... the studies methodology doesn't seem to support the conclusion.

Methods. We drew a sample of individuals aged 20 years and older from the
United Kingdom’s Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 2004 to 2014. We
analyzed data for 76 704 obese men and 99 791 obese women. We excluded
participants who received bariatric surgery. We estimated the probability of
attaining normal weight or 5% reduction in body weight.
Results. During a maximum of 9 years’ follow-up, 1283 men and 2245 women
attained normal body weight. In simple obesity (body mass index = 30.0–34.9 kg/m2
),
the annual probability of attaining normal weight was 1 in 210 for men and 1 in
124 for women, increasing to 1 in 1290 for men and 1 in 677 for women with
morbid obesity

They simply did a statistical analysis, which is useful but not enough to draw this extreme of a conclusion.
 
I think making as much of your exercise something you must do is a good tactic. Walk or ride a bike to work, walk to the grocery store. If you have a lawn, ditch the riding or self propelled mower and get a push reel mower. Maybe try and develop a taste for playing a sport with some friends.

Making it a required task takes out some of the motivational zapping effect of just exercising to exercise, when initially results come slowly and your brain chemistry isnt rewarding you yet.
 

Opiate

Member
But doesn't rising out of poverty depend on a lot more and different circumstances than weight loss which truly is fully in your hand?

I think part of what this is showing is that it is not in your hand. At least, not in the way you mean it.

Hypothesis: if obesity was "truly in your control," very few people would be obese, because very few people enjoy being obese. They suffer from low energy, early mortality (if they are very obese, that is), are often ridiculed, and are typically given lower social status (as most people perceived as "ugly" are).

The fact that so many people seem to be "choosing" to be obese in the developed world when there is strong social and medical pressure to avoid it seems to be compatible with the notion hat this isn't really in your control in the way we mean it, and the sense that it's in your control is mostly an illusion.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom