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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

D

donny2112

Member
ITT, predict for the NPD October 2015 retail period (October 4-31, 2015) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Tuesday, November 10th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: October 4-31, 2015 (4 weeks, September was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, November 12th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in October:
Summary
PS4 Price Drop to $349 (Oct. 9) - 23 days
XB1 Halo 5 1TB bundle ($499, Oct. 20) - 12 days
Halo 5 (Oct. 27) - 5 days


Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

September's Results (estimates)
1. PS4 - 340K
2. XB1 - 280K
3. 3DS - 120K
4. WIU - 85K

September 2014 NPD thread
October 2014 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
D

donny2112

Member
Sangetsu-II said:
Edit: Hey Donny, you can also put in Potential impacting events: Target, Amazon and Best Buy giving out $50 off gift cards in the first week of October (4th - 9th) and Target honouring their giftcard promo after the PS4 price drop.
Click to expand...

Do we think that had a big impact? There are usually sales of one type or another in different months. Included the August XB1 Best Buy one, because that was such a big deal. $50 GC doesn't seem as impactful, but if Abdiel or someone in retail thinks it made a big difference, can add it in.

For reference in November, I usually just use "Black Friday" as a catch-all instead of listing individual sales.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
Finally, the interesting months are here.

Gonna have to come up with a prediction soon. Hopefully I won't forget this month.
 
F

Fat4all

Banned
THE MONTH OF INTEREST IS UPON US.

pBRfXJr.gif


[3DS] 124K
[PS4] 455K
[WIU] 88K
[XB1] 439K
 
D

Deleted member 471617

Unconfirmed Member
[3DS] 70K
[PS4] 380K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 355K
 
K

Kysen

Member
Obligatory "Next month will be interesting" post. X1 has October in the bag, seems MS is determined to not let PS4 run away.
 
A

Aeqvitas

Member
[3DS] 90k
[PS4] 425k
[WIU] 85k
[XB1] 450k

I think the PS4 price cut is gonna be huge, but thinking Halo 5 will draw more for this month. But it is gonna be close either way.
 
H

Hoo-doo

Banned
I'm thinking Xbox has to take this month, lukewarm as the Halo hype-train was this time.

Halo 3 was this industry-wide phenomena. The biggest entertainment release of the year, people lining up around the block, it was on the evening news over here, just crazy. There's nothing like that happening right now, or i'm just getting older and don't notice it anymore.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
This one's going to be a tough nut to crack...

Thinking about it.

Biggest release so far for XB1 with Halo 5 (perhaps its biggest release -ever-) + individual retailer promos

... vs ...

PS4 TTK leftovers, PS4 UC collection, -and- $50 price cut (since 10/8th) + individual retailer promos

Tough (and Amazon needs at least 1 more update on their monthly to paint a clearer picture, at least where they are concerned).

edit: Alright, in spite of the monster Halo 5, I think I'm going to go (between Amazon, Abdiel, and the anecdotal local results of a (possible) Gamestop employee) with a narrow PS4 victory, as unthinkable as it would normally seem so.
Playing in favor of the PS4 imo are the price cut, the inertia, Uncharted Collection bundle, Taken King bundle leftover and the early Battlefront Beta. Halo 5 also had a tail end of the month release, and I think that most (not all obviously) of the die hards had already an XB1 (I could see a lot of die hards buying a 2nd console Halo themed though, the near absence of a $349 bundle in the top 100 tending to hint at that). Still strange that the only Halo bundle was $499, but I guess MS is making bank on this.

So here goes

[3DS] 90k
[PS4] 420k
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 410k
 
L

LegalEagleMike

Member
Hoo-doo said:
I'm thinking Xbox has to take this month, lukewarm as the Halo hype-train was this time.

Halo 3 was this industry-wide phenomena. The biggest entertainment release of the year, people lining up around the block, it was on the evening news over here, just crazy. There's nothing like that happening right now, or i'm just getting older and don't notice it anymore.
Click to expand...

to be fair there are few games that do that now. Maybe GTA and thats it.
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
donny2112 said:
Do we think that had a big impact? There are usually sales of one type or another in different months. Included the August XB1 Best Buy one, because that was such a big deal. $50 GC doesn't seem as impactful, but if Abdiel or someone in retail thinks it made a big difference, can add it in.

For reference in November, I usually just use "Black Friday" as a catch-all instead of listing individual sales.
Click to expand...

Well if one retailer did it it wouldn't cause impact, but 3 out of 5 retailers did it and Target did honor their $50 giftcard after the pricedrop effectively being the cheapest PS4 Bundle you could get for $299 or $350 with an extra game. It's up to you if you consider it impactful or not, you could just say the PS4 pricedrop was all month long if you think about it.

Edit: We need Abdiel here :p
 
P

Primethius

Banned
[3DS] 140k
[PS4] 512k
[WIU] 75k
[XB1] 440k

Think the PS4 edges out the XB1 this month based on the more immediate impact of the price cut combined with how many days the price dropped PS4 had on the market.

I can keep revising the prediction until the deadline, correct? I want to have something here so I don't forget but I also want to see how the rest of the month plays out (and look at charts from other markets).
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
Primethius said:
[3DS] 140k
[PS4] 512k
[WIU] 75k
[XB1] 480k

Think the PS4 edges out the XB1 this month based on the more immediate impact of the price cut combined with how many days the price dropped PS4 had on the market.

I can keep revising the prediction until the deadline, correct? I want to have something here so I don't forget but I also want to see how the rest of the month plays out (and look at charts from other markets).
Click to expand...

Yep.
 
O

Opt1kon_

Member
Reserved spot




[ I'll be reserved but also note that, I'm an employee at a gamestop in NYC area and a lot of customers have come to the Halo 5 Midnight launch however some were even purchasing the Uncharted PS4 W/ WWE 2k16 And/or NBA 2K16 Respectively We just released a promotional for bringing in Old PS4/XBOX1 Systems and trading them in for $250 Store credit towards the purchase of The Halo XB1 console bundle as well as another deal we have trade in 250GB (XBOX360) 120GB (PS3) For $100 store credit towards a newer gen system so far we have had a lot of customers purchasing those $349.99 uncharted bundles ]

JUST MY Two cents on what I've been seeing in my store alone this isn't district wise as i don't have those numbers but the PS4 has literally been flying off the shelf since that price cut
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
Opt1kon_ said:
Reserved spot




[ I'll be reserved but also note that, I'm an employee at a gamestop in NYC area and a lot of customers have come to the Halo 5 Midnight launch however some were even purchasing the Uncharted PS4 W/ WWE 2k16 And/or NBA 2K16 Respectively We just released a promotional for bringing in Old PS4/XBOX1 Systems and trading them in for $250 Store credit towards the purchase of The Halo XB1 console bundle as well as another deal we have trade in 250GB (XBOX360) 120GB (PS3) For $100 store credit towards a newer gen system so far we have had a lot of customers purchasing those $349.99 uncharted bundles ]

JUST MY Two sense on what I've been seeing in my store alone this isn't district wise as i don't have those numbers but the PS4 has literally been flying off the shelf since that price cut
Click to expand...

Interesting, you could get bish verified if you want, also keep working hard for promotions along the way, we need a GameStop guy in these threads ;)
 
B

Blanquito

Member
Anecdotally I know of one person that got a PS4, and no one that got an XB1. PS4 wins confirmed.

But seriously, (despite my bet) I think XB1 wins the month. Preorders for Halo bundle + halo bundle sales this month put it over the combined effort of the PS4 price drop and various SKUs.
 
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