I guess you didnt understand what i said. Either way, next year we will see.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Media Create Sales: Week 46, 2015 (Nov 9 - Nov 15)
- Thread starter hiska-kun
- Start date
I think that 2016 is pretty obviously the year when PS4 will overtake Wii U's ltd in Japan.
I suspect that starting from mid January, the Wii U sales will slow down a lot, and I don't see any reason why its 2016 sales should be somehow near its 2015 results. Splatoon was a very positive anomaly and even if anomalies cannot be predicted, I struggle to see in Pokken or a possible late '16 Zelda release a reason for an actual stable weekly baseline. At the same time, Nintendo was pretty clear in stating with its own actions that they are not cutting their margin/revenue on the Wii U hw, with the Wii U being probably the only console in history in seeing a constant increase of price for its available bundles on the market.
On the other hand, PS4 is obviously going to increase its YoY in '16 over its '15, considering that it will sell for the entire year at a reduced price and that there will be many releases, with some big hitters too (while I think that the only big hit present on the market this year and absent next year will be MGSV). Even if a better lineup and a better price will not affect that positively the YoY trend, it will pretty obviously still sell similarly to this year.
So, foreseeing a decrease in Wii U sales (I'd say at least around its 2014 levels, so probably a 10% decrease?) and a possible increase in PS4 sales, or a probable similar result in PS4 sales, I'd say that PS4 catching up with Wii U ltd is a lock for next year.
Release schedule for PS4 and possible "surprises" for Wii U lineup/price, or the release date of NX, could be elements that will determine during which month this surpass will take place.
I'd say that if NX will be a portable console, and if it will be successfull, it could steal (partially) the thunder from PS4, while if it will be a home console (that to me will hardly be meaningful in Japan) will damage Wii U's sales. If it will be both, I don't know.
I suspect that starting from mid January, the Wii U sales will slow down a lot, and I don't see any reason why its 2016 sales should be somehow near its 2015 results. Splatoon was a very positive anomaly and even if anomalies cannot be predicted, I struggle to see in Pokken or a possible late '16 Zelda release a reason for an actual stable weekly baseline. At the same time, Nintendo was pretty clear in stating with its own actions that they are not cutting their margin/revenue on the Wii U hw, with the Wii U being probably the only console in history in seeing a constant increase of price for its available bundles on the market.
On the other hand, PS4 is obviously going to increase its YoY in '16 over its '15, considering that it will sell for the entire year at a reduced price and that there will be many releases, with some big hitters too (while I think that the only big hit present on the market this year and absent next year will be MGSV). Even if a better lineup and a better price will not affect that positively the YoY trend, it will pretty obviously still sell similarly to this year.
So, foreseeing a decrease in Wii U sales (I'd say at least around its 2014 levels, so probably a 10% decrease?) and a possible increase in PS4 sales, or a probable similar result in PS4 sales, I'd say that PS4 catching up with Wii U ltd is a lock for next year.
Release schedule for PS4 and possible "surprises" for Wii U lineup/price, or the release date of NX, could be elements that will determine during which month this surpass will take place.
I'd say that if NX will be a portable console, and if it will be successfull, it could steal (partially) the thunder from PS4, while if it will be a home console (that to me will hardly be meaningful in Japan) will damage Wii U's sales. If it will be both, I don't know.
Is it?
Moor-Angol
Banned
actually catching the GC is the primary target I think, PS3 started selling well in 2009 iirc
and the table I posted is showing PS3 LTD as beginning of August 2008, while GC is June 2003 and already slowed down
Moor-Angol
Banned
I'm not quite sure what you're asking, but for the two options:
1.) So far Nintendo has only referred to the NX as a home console and said it will be revealed in 2016. They could feasibly not release it until 2017, but their general dearth of upcoming software - combined with most of this year's software being low effort and/or made up of heavy asset reuse - suggests their development efforts are focused elsewhere.
2.) If you mean "Is it even an interesting competition?", this is definitely a junior league type affair.
I think what said by Iwata first and Kimishima later is just that it's a "gaming platform", "system", and that it's not a "direct successor to 3DS and Wii U" (= new philosophy behind it, which could be the family of systems). I know Reggie said home console, and Tanabe talked about Metroid on next home console in 2017, but the official word from both CEOs and in Financial Meetings is that it's a generic "gaming platform". Their statements would still fit if it's (like most of us think) a family of consoles, though.
It was actually former and I agree that they better release it at 2016 but I just wanted to know if they've revealed some more info. Afaik NX released at 2016 is all but speculation (based on educated guess though).
IIRC they've just created (or at least preparing to) to establish 3DS game developer studio at Singapore, and development is going to start this year. By reading that news I thought they may drag 3DS a bit longer than we have imagined.
As for competition, yeah it won't be that interesting so I also agree. Not to mention that Japan as a whole becomes less relevant, for dedicating gaming market.
Right, I think it's both, but I was just trying to clarify that if we assumed it was only one or the other, statements would more likely suggest it replacing the Wii U.
There's been no official timeline for release, yeah.
Dr. Feel Good
Banned
I think the complete drop off in Nintendo software this year is absolute proof Nintendo is ramping up development for a new system. For the first time in a long time there really isn't much to buy as a Nintendo fan this Holiday.
Davey Cakes
Member
I agree. We're definitely witnessing the tail end of the Wii U. Nintendo definitely foresaw needing to switch over to the NX early so any late Wii U projects are probably moving over, as well as anything brand new, made specifically for NX.
I'm also in the camp that agrees with Zelda NX being a reality.
Plus the obvious cash grabs with Animal Crossing: Amiibo Festival and Mario Tennis to pad out the Wii U's holiday lineup.
I hope Nintendo understands that a strong start with NX is absolutely vital. They have a good idea with integrating mobile technology and basically using mobile games and apps as a trojan horse into the new Nintendo/NX ecosystem.
While the lesser Nintendo software this year is unfortunate, especially during the holidays, there are still some strong titles to fall back on for the holidays. Splatoon is evergreen. Mario Maker continuously markets itself. Yoshi's Woolly World wasn't released that long ago (in NA, anyway). Xenoblade is coming up. They have some content but, again, there's no doubt they have a heavy reliance on prior-released software and Amiibo for the holiday.
Monster Hunter Explore surpasses 3 million downloads.
http://www.sankeibiz.jp/business/news/151118/bsj1511181600008-n1.htm
http://www.sankeibiz.jp/business/news/151118/bsj1511181600008-n1.htm
see you next month
I was talking about YTD and even if the gap will close it won't by much, PS4 will overtake Wii U next year either way.
I think is quite clear that the wiiu is on its way out by looking at this year releases. I don't think this year nintendo released much less than the last, but the quality of software is on a whole different level, not only on the quality, but also the appeal. Last year i think i got at least one game every month for the console. This year i got 4 (and one of them was Devil's third to boot). There's games i wanted to get like yoshi and rodea, but couldn't, but its a huge dropoff from last year. Splatoon is my most played game in the system ever, but had no interest in xenoblade, Mario Maker, party and... That's it? Quite a shame.
Also, this year holidays are quite strange since its the first time the wiiu won't have an actual big game at the end of the year. In 2012 there was Mario u with nintendoland and monhan as smaller games that surfed along. In 2013 it was 3d world with Taiko 1 as the smaller one. 2014 was smash with kinopio taichou.
This year we got an animal crossing spin off, a new Taiko, an youkai watch spin off and sharp fe. I'm sure these games will do well, but none of them are big releases. Sharp fe will sell since its being released at the biggest week of the year, but only to a dedicated audience. AC, Taiko and youkai are family games and selling to the same people, but i don't know how well they will do. AC looks like a bad game, but i can see selling on the name alone. Youkai is a just dance game, but can sell since its yw and Taiko might even do better than last year, but its more of the same.
Really bad lineup compared to recent years. Americas got it much better with tennis, xenoblade, AC and Devil's third.
Also, this year holidays are quite strange since its the first time the wiiu won't have an actual big game at the end of the year. In 2012 there was Mario u with nintendoland and monhan as smaller games that surfed along. In 2013 it was 3d world with Taiko 1 as the smaller one. 2014 was smash with kinopio taichou.
This year we got an animal crossing spin off, a new Taiko, an youkai watch spin off and sharp fe. I'm sure these games will do well, but none of them are big releases. Sharp fe will sell since its being released at the biggest week of the year, but only to a dedicated audience. AC, Taiko and youkai are family games and selling to the same people, but i don't know how well they will do. AC looks like a bad game, but i can see selling on the name alone. Youkai is a just dance game, but can sell since its yw and Taiko might even do better than last year, but its more of the same.
Really bad lineup compared to recent years. Americas got it much better with tennis, xenoblade, AC and Devil's third.
Is the dropout really that bad from last year?
Stuff like Smash, Kart, Bayo2 are tough to compete with because they are GOTY games that just about own their genre.
But this year there has been. Yoshi, Mario Maker, splatoon, Kirby, and xeno. Games that wont win GOTY probably but are all good entries in their franchises. And if star fox came out this year you could add that.
Mario Party stinks but sold well...
So I'm not sure I'm seeing it.
Edit:
And some more dlc this year. Wouldn't be surprised if MK8 dlc made more than a retail release or two this year.
Stuff like Smash, Kart, Bayo2 are tough to compete with because they are GOTY games that just about own their genre.
But this year there has been. Yoshi, Mario Maker, splatoon, Kirby, and xeno. Games that wont win GOTY probably but are all good entries in their franchises. And if star fox came out this year you could add that.
Mario Party stinks but sold well...
So I'm not sure I'm seeing it.
Edit:
And some more dlc this year. Wouldn't be surprised if MK8 dlc made more than a retail release or two this year.
Personally I don't think con sole NX is next year
fredrancour
Member
True. The thing salvaging it for me in the us on a personal level, xenoblade, is old news there.
Pennywise83
Banned
De facto Nintendo holiday Wii U games are Splatoon and Super Mario Maker.
From the official PR on Digipen's site
So, Singapore developers can be helped by DGS and, consequently, by Nintendo, for putting their titles on the eShop on 3DS for a global release. And it's an initiative that potentially can be extended to other platforms, both Nintendo and non-Nintendo ones. So, I don't think it's indicative at all that Nintendo could extend the handheld's life for that much.
Actually, I remember Nirolak posted a recap of Nintendo's upcoming lineup. Could you post it again, Nirolak?
There's sharp fe here too.
But yeah... It's splatoon who is going to sell systems this holiday. Everything else is an after though... Maybe youkai watch can surprise people. I don't know.
test_account
XP-39C²
How much more content does God Eater Resurrection have compared to God Eater 2 Burst?
January 2017.
Before that, Splatoon will continue to be in the TOP 20, or really close to it.
Pennywise83
Banned
GE: Resurrection is not really a re-release, though.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
He's trying to lol
What would you call it? It's certainly not a remake.
Sure:
I'd be surprised if they didn't launch both systems next year barring catastrophic manufacturing and/or development issues.
test_account
XP-39C²
Isnt it a remake? I thought it was a remake with improved and redone graphics/textures. I guess its more of an enhanced version? But even as a full remake, a remake selling 200k seems great to me. Whats the highest sell remake or enhanced version in Japan?
Time to update it, then (adding development teams)
Upcoming first party titles in Japan
Wii U
Mario Tennis: Ultra Light - Camelot, releasing in a few hours in the West
Pokken Tournament - Bandai Namco
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess HD - Tantalus
Star Fox: Zero - EPD/Platinum (co-development)
The Legend of Zelda U - EPD
Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games - SEGA
#FE - Atlus
3DS
Mario & Luigi: PaperJam - AlphaDream
Hyrule Warriors Legends - Omega Team / Team Ninja
Mario & Sonic at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games - SEGA
Metroid Prime: Federation Forces - Next Level Games
Culdcept Revolt - Omiyasoft
As you can see, the upcoming lineup sees a very light involvement from Nintendo's own teams, except for Zelda U. A good chunk of teams (especially major) aren't involved. And we haven't heard almost anything about specific teams for quite a long time.
If I have to make a prediction about a Nintendo team still working on 3DS next year, I suppose we'll see HAL Laboratory on 3DS again with a new Kirby (spin-off or a main): I just can't see a Nintendo handheld leaving the market with just one retail Kirby game, and the other games sold well (Kirby: Triple Deluxe is a million+ seller WW, and Kirby Fighter Z is a 200k+ seller on the eShop).
Of course, there's also Pokémon Z to consider.
Pennywise83
Banned
I remember we reached the conclusion it's halfway between a remake and a remaster. NB advertises the game more as a remake, though, with plenty more contents with respect to the original release.
Was #FE delayed out of 2015? I thought it was this year in Japan.
Or maybe it was always 2016 and I'm hallucinating.
Or maybe it was always 2016 and I'm hallucinating.
I believe this historical term for this was "Enhanced Port", but as remasters came in the terminology got lost somewhere in the ether.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
By upcoming, I meant all the games we know about that aren't released yet, including this year.
theprodigy
Member
dakkumauji
Member
I thought it was going to do that off salty tears about how its ruining everything precious to the two franchises
3DS will sell around 50m games a year because of the userbase. A new handheld would only manage around 20m even in a successful first year. Nintendo can coast on evergreens and 3rd parties for 3DS for another 2 or 3 years if they want to(and maybe a price cut or two) and focus first parties on fixing their console
console business.
fredrancour
Member
DriftingSpirit
Member
Bold, I like it!
Ah I see. That makes sense.
I think if they've decided their handheld business is not going to be especially productive in the West regardless, then there's not a major pressure to move on from the 3DS since it will still rule the dedicated market in Japan.
That said I'm skeptical that throwing more resources and even handheld teams at NX home console exclusives is going to produce tremendous results.
If you look Mario Kart, it was still in TOP even in August if i remember correctly... it is dropped under the TOP 20 during March 2015 because a lot of new released, but was really close to it, and then, is back in the TOP 20 by April.
I believe we will see a similar trend with Splatoon, but since it's legs are stronger, the numbers will be bigger, so i don't think will drop under the TOP 20 in March, but even if will, it will for sure back.
Like Mario kart 8 was selling 4,000 to 6,000 per week in 2015 in the worst case, i think is likely for Splatoon sell 8,000 to 12,000, and in a normal week, during Gloden / Obon week will be even bigger, for not even talk about December sales.
PS4 has so many japanese system sellers in 2016. It should be an amazing year.
From the top of my head:
- Final Fantasy XV
- World of Final Fantasy
- Dissidia Final Fantasy (very likely)
- Kingdom Hearts 2.8
- Dragon Quest XI (maybe 2017)
- Dragon Quest Builders
- Dragon Quest Heroes 2
- Nier Automata
- Star Ocean 5
- Gran Turismo Sports
- The Last Guardian
- Gravity Rush 2
- New Minna no Golf
- Level-5 & Sony Collaboration Project (maybe 2017)
- Street Fighter V
- Yakuza 6
- Yakuza 1 Remake
- New Valkyria
- Dark Souls 3
- Naruto Ultimate Ninja Storm 4
- King of Fighters XIV
- Ni-Oh
- Tales of Berseria
- Persona 5
- Tekken 7
- One Piece Burning Blood
- Resident Evil Zero HD
- Resident Evil 7 (very likely IMO)
- Devil May Cry 5 (very likely IMO)
And probably some others I am forgetting! Add to that big western hitters like Uncharted 4 and COD!
From the top of my head:
- Final Fantasy XV
- World of Final Fantasy
- Dissidia Final Fantasy (very likely)
- Kingdom Hearts 2.8
- Dragon Quest XI (maybe 2017)
- Dragon Quest Builders
- Dragon Quest Heroes 2
- Nier Automata
- Star Ocean 5
- Gran Turismo Sports
- The Last Guardian
- Gravity Rush 2
- New Minna no Golf
- Level-5 & Sony Collaboration Project (maybe 2017)
- Street Fighter V
- Yakuza 6
- Yakuza 1 Remake
- New Valkyria
- Dark Souls 3
- Naruto Ultimate Ninja Storm 4
- King of Fighters XIV
- Ni-Oh
- Tales of Berseria
- Persona 5
- Tekken 7
- One Piece Burning Blood
- Resident Evil Zero HD
- Resident Evil 7 (very likely IMO)
- Devil May Cry 5 (very likely IMO)
And probably some others I am forgetting! Add to that big western hitters like Uncharted 4 and COD!
I think you're kinda pushing the term system seller. 2016 should be nice though.
DangerMouse
Member
Yup, my wallet's going to kill me as those make it over here.
Around 20% of those games are system sellers ( and i'm generus).
leatherhat
Member
A lot of those aren't really system sellers but whats important is that ps4 shouldn't have any major software droughts next year.
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
All those 'system sellers' are from the top of your head? That is some amazing memory you have.