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[ZSaberLink]

Can people actually evaluate the PS4 vs. Wii U in terms of a qualitative analysis? It's still mostly conjecture since we really don't know what will release when for the most part, but at least it's better than "PS4 is awesome, of course it'll outsell the Wii U LTD by X date".

So we currently have about an 800K difference between Wii U & PS4.

In order for the PS4 to outsell the Wii U by week 52 2016, it needs to obviously sell that much more than Wii U.

Now the Wii U did 820K this year thanks to Splatoon & Mario Maker and was up YoY. Now assuming the Wii U is down YoY, I'd guess it may be a bit below 2014.

If Wii U does like 400K, I'd say assuming the PS4 is up YoY, the PS4 LTD would be higher by the end of 2016. However, given Splatoon's popularity, I could actually see a first half of the year that's better than last year, possibly hitting 500-600K. So basically I'd say if the PS4 does 1.5M or higher, it's pretty likely than it finally takes over the Wii U LTD. Otherwise, it kind of depends on how the Wii U does.

Personally I'd just hope both do well, since I really don't care about who's ahead of who.

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

The judgement prior to releases pointed out at a stronger ps3 performances than the actual ones . Ps4 demonstrated to be able to manager the generational switch better than expected.
Bloodborne was offered for free for many weeks and the ps4 baseline benefit from that, and we didn't know about that earlier.
Dqh sold very well and could have anticipate, alongside last year bundle, some brand lover purchase of the console.
The we are pretending the price cut didn't happen, while..it happened.
And we saw how it affected the baseline.

Me too I think next year will have a stronger lineup. And that ps4 will catch wiiu ltd.
But all the rock solid statement about the Slim, another price cut and the certainity about releases still not confirmed are a little too strong imho.

As the earlier sentence about ps 4 not able to catch the wiiu until mi 17

Yea, I don't know why people are so 'sure' about another price cut and a slim model. Nothing really necessitates either one of those in regions outside of Japan. And since Sony is a global corporation, they're not going to take drastic measures just for Japan.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

My mistake then... I misunderstood.

I honestly don't think Splatoon is going to keep selling leading into the next year. Like you said, that won't happen in January because of the boost coming from Holidays but it is definitely going to happen soon after it. I don't see any upcoming game boosting the Wii U hardware. Bundles can only help so much. Don't forget that this was going to be the worst year for Wii U until the magic of Splatoon and Super Mario Maker propelled the consoles to some good sales. There is no Splatoon or SMM like game in 2016.

Pokkémon should boost it's sales for one week or two, but yeah will be a small and fast boost.

I personally expect Wii U to sell 550,000 next year, and PS4 to sell 1,500,000. So, i believe PS4 will beat Wii U by a good 0.95 million unit, and should surpass it by starting December.

To be fair, i predicted some weeks ago 1.35 million for PS4 and 0.50 million for Wii U.

But since both sold over what i expected ( 1.25 million PS4, 0.75 million Wii U was my prediction back in June), i think i should increase my 2016 prediction for both.

Still... Wii U should be up YOY for the firsts months of 2016. Like you said, withouth Splatoon, Wii U was gonna bomb in 2015... so, before Splatoon release, i can see Wii U sells more than last year, even with the NX annunced.

It should eat all sales during the holidays, that's why i don't expect more than 600k at maximum for Wii U next year.

Maybe, we can see PS4 at < 1.30 million ( i honestly believe there is a chance for PS4 be down YOY next year, even with FF and DQ), and Wii U will sell > 600k ( who know), and PS4 won't beat Wii U in 2016.

That's seem a bit strange and i don't believe will happen, but who know. In short, yeah, saying "PS4 has no chance for outsell Wii U in 2016" doesn't make much sense...

Mario Tennis will keep the Wii U hype train going, just wait and see.

Forgot about this! Nevermind, Wii U will outsell PS4 in 2016.

 

[Oregano]

last year and the beginning of this year a lot of people were discounting the ps4 as not having anything major to move hardware because the likes of dqh, yakuza and mgs were also on ps3 but now all of a sudden the year was stacked with great games and the ps4 is supposed to have done gangbusters in sales lol. next year is the real test and what we can call "stacked" with hopefully ffxv, kh3 and dq11 leading the charge

I never said the PS4 should have sold more. I'm just not trying to pretend the PS4 had a bad lineup, only the 3DS had a better one.

Now we're definitely talking revisionist history. Ports of handheld games, remastered of PSP games = stacked. Ok.

The only three legitimate big Japan-centric games the PS4 had were Bloodborne, MGSV, and DQH, the latter of which was mitigated by the slime/code bundle of last year. Next year ps4 Japan lineup is actually impressive.

Edit: Oh, I forgot there was a cross-gen Yakuza prequel.

Ports of handheld games? I don't get why that's a disqualifier. Handheld games rule Japan and it's not like Toukiden and God Eater are small brands(and PS4 got GE the same day).

In terms of amount of games releases, sure. In terms of potential system movers, no.

There is no use pretending it was good either. It was a barely okay year with a few noteworthy points (MGS, DQ, western titles, etc..). The narrative at the end of 2014 and throughout 2015 has been that the PS4 had very few, if any, system sellers for the year. Now that it has done decent numbers overall in spite of that, the narrative is changing to the PS4 had a "stacked year" and only moved 380K up. I mean, Toukiden as a noteworthy title in the lineup? Seriously?

The Wii U's lineup was so poor it just made the PS4's okay lineup look good in comparison. Splatoon coming out of nowhere and doing crazy good just served as one heck of a safety net for Wii U.

lol@bolded. In spite of what? In spite of the fact that the PS4 got a shit-ton of releases including two in two of Japan's biggest brands? EDIT: And lets not pretend PS4 sales were anything special.

 

[Aostia]

Can people actually evaluate the PS4 vs. Wii U in terms of a qualitative analysis? It's still mostly conjecture since we really don't know what will release when for the most part, but at least it's better than "PS4 is awesome, of course it'll outsell the Wii U LTD by X date".

So we currently have about an 800K difference between Wii U & PS4.

In order for the PS4 to outsell the Wii U by week 52 2016, it needs to obviously sell that much more than Wii U.

Now the Wii U did 820K this year thanks to Splatoon & Mario Maker and was up YoY. Now assuming the Wii U is down YoY, I'd guess it may be a bit below 2014.

If Wii U does like 400K, I'd say assuming the PS4 is up YoY, the PS4 LTD would be higher by the end of 2016. However, given Splatoon's popularity, I could actually see a first half of the year that's better than last year, possibly hitting 500-600K. So basically I'd say if the PS4 does 1.5M or higher, it's pretty likely than it finally takes over the Wii U LTD. Otherwise, it kind of depends on how the Wii U does.

Personally I'd just hope both do well, since I really don't care about who's ahead of who.

Yea, I don't know why people are so 'sure' about another price cut and a slim model. Nothing really necessitates either one of those in regions outside of Japan. And since Sony is a global corporation, they're not going to take drastic measures just for Japan.

I agree with both.
I think ps4 will sell around 1,5/6 millions next year and the wiiu will be way lower, lets say around 500, so Ot should pass it with i the end of the year, but it is a close call imho.

 

[Pennywise83]

Honest question: does it really matter whether PS4 is going to surpass Wii U next year? It's become clear which one third parties chose to support, and what Nintendo is planning for 2016 onwards, so this fight doesn't really make sense.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

I'm perfectly calm and the PS4 had 154 games released in 2015 in Japan (at least 82 of which as I suspect the Wikipedia entry isn't complete beeing physical releases).

That's 3 games per week and the system with the most releases that year behind the Vita. And what else am I comparing PS4's stacked release schedule to when I'm talking about it overtaking the WiiU, PS2's? Yeah, compared to Sony's best selling system ever, the PS4 release schedule is anemic and will never change

Averaging like that is being disingenuous and the significance of the game lineup matters. If you did what I said you would notice the improvement 2016 seemingly offers PS4 right now.

Calm down and look at the list of 2016 games coming to PS4. That is more akin to what you would call stacked.

Ahh, yes, lets go from an objectively low bar to an objectively high bar. Thats irrational.

 

[Elandyll]

I don't think we see a single title carry a platform that way anymore, it's been downright weird to see Splatoon trucking along and dragging the WiiU with it these past few weeks, but good for them

Good results for PS4 too, given the lack of software for the region in general, and wow at MHX tally.

 

[ffdgh]

Mario Tennis will keep the Wii U hype train going, just wait and see.

Nah I'll wait for mario strikers charged nx.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

wiiu will be way lower, lets say around 500,

That's about XB1 level, i agree that PS4 will pass Wii U next year, but come on now.

 

[Nirolak]

Honest question: does it really matter whether PS4 is going to surpass Wii U next year? It's become clear which one third parties chose to support, and what Nintendo is planning for 2016 onwards, so this fight doesn't really make sense.

Yeah, I'm not sure I get it either.

The Wii U is essentially a finished platform. What's even left at this point, Star Fox, Pokken, and a Zelda game that's likely to be cross generation? I'm not sure things like Mario Tennis and Sonic & Mario are even worth mentioning.

 

[Oregano]

Yeah, I'm not sure I get it either.

The Wii U is essentially a finished platform. What's even left at this point, Star Fox, Pokken, and a Zelda game that's likely to be cross generation? I'm not sure things like Mario Tennis and Sonic & Mario are even worth mentioning.

Waluigi is finally getting his own game and it's going to be massive. You just wait and see!

 

[Tratorn]

Is there a release schedule for the first 3 months for PS4?

Out of my head I'd say the most important (>100k) japanese games for the first quarter are DQ:B, SFV, DSIII and SO5.
DQ:B will be much more vita focused though.

I'm curious what the baseline will be in the 1st and 2nd quarter. At least this time it has a constant release of games and PS3 is not as strong as last year, so it should be decent.

 

[sense]

Honest question: does it really matter whether PS4 is going to surpass Wii U next year? It's become clear which one third parties chose to support, and what Nintendo is planning for 2016 onwards, so this fight doesn't really make sense.

It never mattered. This fight came about because people started comparing ps4 launch sales with wii u launch and people were doubting whether it would even beat wii u Ltd because home consoles are dead

 

[Diffense]

All things considered, Nintendo must be pretty optimistic about Japan. Wii U is clearly moribund but is doing much better than one would expect given its low level of support while 3DS is an unqualified success. WRT to the Wii U, Nintendo is in a peculiar situation of being able to sell so much hardware on only the strength of their own software but it seems to be a double-edged sword. Few other publishers seem willing to compete with Nintendo, on their own turf, in the genres they dominate but publishers also aren't convined that an audience exists on Nintendo home consoles for games that are not typical Nintendo fare. Lowering the technological barriers, and therefore costs, to ports may be a step in the right direction that NX might pursue. Since Nintendo already has exclusive software that the market appreciates (up to 10+ million Wii U sales anyway) getting the support necessary to round out their library should be a priority.

 

[Mr Swine]

Nice numbers for everyone (Go Wii U)! I guess it will be "high" for the next 2 weeks right?

I think that Wii U, Splatoon and SMM will flatline a few weeks after new year sadly

 

[Fularu]

Averaging like that is being disingenuous and the significance of the game lineup matters. If you did what I said you would notice the improvement 2016 seemingly offers PS4 right now.


Ahh, yes, lets go from an objectively low bar to an objectively high bar. Thats irrational.

The PS4 had in 2015 about 12 to 15 games released each month (with a few dry spells during June/July). It recieved a constant stream of minor to average games (50-100k games) and quite a few 150k+ games all year long.

This is the new reality of home console gaming sales for Sony since the PS3, the only outliner as far as home releaes go is and will remain Nintendo. The PS3 has one (legitimate) million seller, the PS4 will probably end up with one too or even none ('m really not sure the Final Fantasy brand hasn't been tarnished beyond redemption by the FF XIII debacle) as I doubt DQ will move over a million unit on PS4 with a 3DS version available.

Is the 2016 better? Potentially, but that would requiere FF XV, FFVII, KH3 and DQXI to come out, which is not happening. We'll probably get DQ XI, maybe the first episode of FF VII, we're definitely getting DQH2, DQB (wildcard here but I expect the Vita version to dwarf the PS4 one as far as sales go), Star Ocean 5 and a new Yakuza.

Beyond that? some middle tier games (DS3, Tales of Besteria) and that's prety much it. Rest is no better nor worse than the 2015 lineup is and I'd argue from a midshare viewpoint, the few SE releases that will make it out this year aren't that much more important than Bloodborne, DQH (at the announcement) or MGS5 were.

Also I find it hilarious that you pimped the PS4 2015 lineup last fall, claiming it would overtake WiiU for sure this year and now you're somehow all "2015 wasn't stacked, it was an ok year at best, blablabla".

Yeah, I'm not sure I get it either.

The Wii U is essentially a finished platform. What's even left at this point, Star Fox, Pokken, and a Zelda game that's likely to be cross generation? I'm not sure things like Mario Tennis and Sonic & Mario are even worth mentioning.

Don't we enjoy talking about "when will X overtake Y"? How many years did we have debates about when the PS3 would overtake the Wii or when the PSP would overtake the PS2?

It's an interesting milestone to watch, it also illustrate or poor the japanese market is when a regular week in the life of the PSone/PS2/Wii is incredible for either the WiiU or the PS4. The "home consoles" market in Japan is prety much in shambles/dead outside of a few major releases here and there.

 

[JetSetRadio]

PS4 -wiiu 3:2
Not bad at all for the little lad.

 

[Schnozberry]

Nintendo really needs to have Splatoon ready for the NX Launch. Perhaps make it free for owners of the Wii U game and include some DLC with the purchase of an NX.

 

[Nirolak]

Don't we enjoy talking about "when will X overtake Y"? How many years did we have debates about when the PS3 would overtake the Wii or when the PSP would overtake the PS2?

It's an interesting milestone to watch, it also illustrate or poor the japanese market is when a regular week in the life of the PSone/PS2/Wii is incredible for either the WiiU or the PS4. The "home consoles" market in Japan is prety much in shambles/dead outside of a few major releases here and there.

Maybe I misunderstood the JJS posts of yore, but I thought the idea was to illustrate the basically hopeless gap between systems where even if the Wii/DS stopped selling immediately, the PS3/PSP would take a nigh eternity to catch up to the still active platforms, whereas this one is basically a guarantee where the timeframe primarily circles around how much of a failure the PS4 is.

I guess it's kind of similar.

I mean there's certainly nothing wrong with discussing it if you want to, it just seems like an odd tangential way of talking about how well the Wii U will hang on with zero content and how well the PS4 will do next year.

I guess the main reason it struck me as odd is that it seemed like a situation where the end result (third party support and the timing of platform succession) has already happened regardless of the phasing, whereas the PS3/PSP were actually making good progress despite the overall generation numbers, suggesting interesting information about the platforms despite their relative market position. This situation on the other hand seems very straightforward.

 

[Orniletter]

Nintendo really needs to have Splatoon ready for the NX Launch. Perhaps make it free for owners of the Wii U game and include some DLC with the purchase of an NX.

Nah, Splatoon 2 would be the perfect year one game (kinda like Animal Crossing new leaf for the 3DS...though that wasn't quite year one).

They need more time, the support of the WiiU game ends in January 2016 and for the series to really break out , they have to step it up in the production value department .

I think when your IP is about to hit critical mass, it's best to not bother with ports and halfsteps, it's best to just skip to the full new mainline entry .

 

[ffdgh]

Nah, Splatoon 2 would be the perfect year one game (kinda like Animal Crossing new leaf for the 3DS...though that wasn't quite year one).

They need more time, the support of the WiiU game ends in January 2016 and for the series to really break out , they have to step it up in the production value department .

I think when your IP is about to hit critical mass, it's best to not bother with ports and halfsteps, it's best to just skip to the full new mainline entry .

Can't wait to see splatoon have its "mario kart 8" reveal moment lol.

 

[madstarr12]

Wii U at 6 digits! Been a while since that happened. Splatoon is amazing! Too much fame for them though, Mario Maker is doing very well too! Wonder how bad the drop will be in 2 weeks. We'll see the fate of Splatoon then.

PS4 doing better than last year is good. I don't think it matters when it catches Wii U. If it doesn't do it sometime in late 2016, then Lol.

Wonder when

Spoiler

if

PS4 will catch the Vita in the next 2 years

 

[Oregano]

Maybe I misunderstood the JJS posts of yore, but I thought the idea was to illustrate the basically hopeless gap between systems where even if the Wii/DS stopped selling immediately, the PS3/PSP would take a nigh eternity to catch up to the still active platforms, whereas this one is basically a guarantee where the timeframe primarily circles around how much of a failure the PS4 is.

I guess it's kind of similar.

I mean there's certainly nothing wrong with discussing it if you want to, it just seems like an odd tangential way of talking about how well the Wii U will hang on with zero content and how well the PS4 will do next year.

I guess the main reason it struck me as odd is that it seemed like a situation where the end result (third party support and the timing of platform succession) has already happened regardless of the phasing, whereas the PS3/PSP were actually making good progress despite the overall generation numbers, suggesting interesting information about the platforms despite their relative market position. This situation on the other hand seems very straightforward.

I think the only angle really worth considering is how third parties will react depending on how fast the PS4 sells. For instance Square Enix might not feel comfortable releasing FFXV on a console where it needs 50%+ attach ratio to come anywhere close to historical sales(I don't think that will be the case by the time XV is finished though).

There's also the idea that third parties might be more open to trying different platforms if there isn't the safety net of a massive install base.

Even still the Wii U comparison is purely academic.

 

[Deku89]

Nah, Splatoon 2 would be the perfect year one game (kinda like Animal Crossing new leaf for the 3DS...though that wasn't quite year one).

They need more time, the support of the WiiU game ends in January 2016 and for the series to really break out , they have to step it up in the production value department .

I think when your IP is about to hit critical mass, it's best to not bother with ports and halfsteps, it's best to just skip to the full new mainline entry .

I agree. I can't see a new Splatoon game in 2016; earliest I can see is May 2017. I hope they pull out all the stops and expand on what made it so fun. (Although, I wouldn't say no to a Spatoon RPG or basketball game.)

 

[Ryng_tolu]

As we know, Media Create has 53 weeks this year.

Wii U was at 730,734 unit sold last week. Assuming we will see 100k this week in Media Create, we have Wii U at 830,734 unit in 2015.

2013 is the peak with 898,143 unit.

...Do you believe will Wii U sell 67,409 unit next week and peak in 2015? [MEDIA CREATE]

 

[Arzehn]

Waiting for superior tracker, but hardware sales for both home consoles are good this year.

Medabots declined from 36k > 22k
rip #FE

Also, I don't get the port/remaster to NX posts. Why waste resources porting/remastering a flop when they could port/remaster something that actually sells?

 

[Nirolak]

I think the only angle really worth considering is how third parties will react depending on how fast the PS4 sells. For instance Square Enix might not feel comfortable releasing FFXV on a console where it needs 50%+ attach ration to come anywhere close to historical sales(I don't think that will be the case by the time XV is finished though).

There's also the idea that third parties might be more open to trying different platforms if there isn't the safety net of a massive install base.

Even still the Wii U comparison is purely academic.

I think FFXV in particular isn't a great example because Tabata announced in their annual investor report that they were aiming for FFXV to be the best selling Final Fantasy of all time.

FF7 has sold 11 million copies so even if they were forecasting 2 million copies in Japan, it's a title where over 80% of the sales are expected to come from the West, and thus decisions will center around the overseas market.

(I'm ignoring that I think they're much more likely to have a high end around half that for the moment.)

But yes, companies more focused on Japan would likely alter or expand decisions if they have notably poor perform when releasing only on PS4, especially if nothing else was making up for it and they thought there were potentially better options.

 

[Kid Ying]

It must.also be noted that many people were stating ps4 to catch up with the wii u within the end of this year, me included. Than splatoon happened.
I firmly believe that next year ps4 will catch the wii u ltd but some reaction has been pretty rock solid imho

That "prediction" that some people made last year never made any sense. Wiiu finished last year with 1,2 million consoles above the ps4, which is exactly what the ps4 sold at the end of the year. The wiiu only needed to sell more than the xone...

Anyway, i think ps4 next year will be good and maybe even better than this year, but dont think that's a lock.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Still... Wii U should be up YOY for the firsts months of 2016. Like you said, withouth Splatoon, Wii U was gonna bomb in 2015... so, before Splatoon release, i can see Wii U sells more than last year, even with the NX annunced.

Mediacreate numbers:

Wii U YTD before Splatoon release (Week 21): 194.297
Average weekly sales: ~9.25k per week

It won't be hard for Wii U to be up YOY with such pathetic LTD in early 2015 compared to 2016. But will the difference be big here? Lets say it will average 15k for early 2016 making it a total of 315k compared to last year.

Lets be reasonable here, this isn't going to happen. Splatoon and Mario Maker going to stop selling at some point and moving Wii U hardware.

Here is PS4 YTD for comparison (Week 21): 517.947
Average weekly sales: ~24.6k

If PS4 can maintain the same sales momentum, it will easily have the similar lead in early 2016 (~300k) and unlike 2015, there won't be a Splatoon or SMM to stop the Wii U downfall later down the line.

 

[Oregano]

I think FFXV in particular isn't a great example because Tabata announced in their annual investor report that they were aiming for FFXV to be the best selling Final Fantasy of all time.

FF7 has sold 11 million copies so even if they were forecasting 2 million copies in Japan, it's a title where over 80% of the sales are expected to come from the West, and thus decisions will center around the overseas market.

(I'm ignoring that I think they're much more likely to have a high end around half that for the moment.)

But yes, companies more focused on Japan would likely alter or expand decisions if they have notably poor perform when releasing only on PS4, especially if nothing else was making up for it and they thought there were potentially better options.

Ahh I forgot about that little nugget. I was using FFXV as the example because it's the biggest game(right now) and in order to match FFXIII's sales it would need an >80% attach ratio right now and even if we assume the PS4 sells ~1.8 million next year it would be just below a 50% attach ratio. I'd also have to think that for SE to plan for it to be the biggest FF game it'd have to not be the worst selling in Japan but who knows with those loons.

To be fair as well I don't think companies will struggle on PS4 at all and they're all set now but it's easy to see how it might be more tempting to expand if the install base is still low and growing at a slow pace.

 

[Vena]

I think FFXV in particular isn't a great example because Tabata announced in their annual investor report that they were aiming for FFXV to be the best selling Final Fantasy of all time.

Can I get a source on that? I want to read that report. I find the statement overshot by a wiiiide margin but I'd still like to read what Tabata has to say in there in full.

 

[Chris1964]

Wait, I thought this year last week will be the next one.

It's easy to find when Famitsu ends months and years, at the last Sunday that belongs to the same month / year. Media Create is different

Famitsu

2015 CY {2014.12.29 - 2015.12.27}
2016 CY {2015.12.28 - 2016.12.25}
2017 CY {2016.12.26 - 2017.12.31}
2018 CY {2018.01.01 - 2018.12.30}
2019 CY {2018.12.31 - 2019.12.29}
2020 CY {2019.12.30 - 2020.12.27}


Media Create

2015 CY {2014.12.29 - 2016.01.03}
2016 CY {2016.01.04 - 2017.01.01}
2017 CY {2017.01.02 - 2017.12.31}
2018 CY {2018.01.01 - 2018.12.30}
2019 CY {2018.12.31 - 2019.12.29}
2020 CY {2019.12.30 - 2020.12.27}

Aligned periods again from 2018

 

[Ryng_tolu]

I think another interesting question should be: Which one will sell more in 2016, PS4 or 3DS?

PS4 should be able to sell ~1.35 million this year, and 3DS around ~2.35 million.

I'd say will be a very close battle, both at ~1.50 million.

 

[Nirolak]

Ahh I forgot about that little nugget. I was using FFXV as the example because it's the biggest game(right now) and in order to match FFXIII's sales it would need an >80% attach ratio right now and even if we assume the PS4 sells ~1.8 million next year it would be just below a 50% attach ratio. I'd also have to think that for SE to plan for it to be the biggest FF game it'd have to not be the worst selling in Japan but who knows with those loons.

To be fair as well I don't think companies will struggle on PS4 at all and they're all set now but it's easy to see how it might be more tempting to expand if the install base is still low and growing at a slow pace.

On paper the RPG market in the West is astronomically huge, it's just that they're unlikely to hit its heights.

Diablo 3 + RoS: 30+ million
Skyrim: 20+ million
Borderlands 2: 12.5+ million
Fallout 4: 12 million at launch

We don't have solid Destiny numbers, but it seems to be in the 10+ million range.

Then there are some smaller ones that wouldn't quite get them there like The Witcher 3 was at 6 million at last count (~2 months after launch) and BioWare moves around 5 million.

But yeah this is still a console JRPG. It's just I imagine these are the conditions they're looking at when making those projections.

 

[Oregano]

I think another interesting question should be: Which one will sell more in 2016, PS4 or 3DS?

PS4 should be able to sell ~1.35 million this year, and 3DS around ~2.35 million.

I'd say will be a very close battle, both at ~1.50 million.

We discussed that last thread. PS4 should probably take it but it will be close. 3DS has a strong(er?) lineup but not many brands that will expand the audience.

EDIT: @Nirolak: True, I just don't think they can hit the zeitgeist the way FFVII or Skyrim did.

 

[KillerMan91]

We discussed that last thread. PS4 should probably take it but it will be close. 3DS has a strong(er?) lineup but not many brands that will expand the audience.

Imo it depends on what NX is and how well it will launch. If we get some kind of handheld variant of NX and it launches well 3DS should die pretty quickly after the launch (like NDS did).

 

[Days like these...]

Also I find it hilarious that you pimped the PS4 2015 lineup last fall, claiming it would overtake WiiU for sure this year and now you're somehow all "2015 wasn't stacked, it was an ok year at best, blablabla".


Don't we enjoy talking about "when will X overtake Y"? How many years did we have debates about when the PS3 would overtake the Wii or when the PSP would overtake the PS2?

It's an interesting milestone to watch, it also illustrate or poor the japanese market is when a regular week in the life of the PSone/PS2/Wii is incredible for either the WiiU or the PS4. The "home consoles" market in Japan is prety much in shambles/dead outside of a few major releases here and there.

Psycho is among one of the most faithful. I remember before the ps4 launched (in japan) he would argue that the ps4 would at least match the ps3 in sales (in japan). People would try and tell him the market's changed but he was obstinate till the end.

 

[Aostia]

As we know, Media Create has 53 weeks this year.

Wii U was at 730,734 unit sold last week. Assuming we will see 100k this week in Media Create, we have Wii U at 830,734 unit in 2015.

2013 is the peak with 898,143 unit.

...Do you believe will Wii U sell 67,409 unit next week and peak in 2015? [MEDIA CREATE]

I bet it will fall short by few hundred units. What about famitsu 13 vs 15 comparison?

 

[Chris1964]

+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
|  | Famitsu  | Famitsu  | Famitsu  | Famitsu  | Famitsu  | Famitsu  | Famitsu  | Famitsu  |
|  |   WIU    |   WIU    |   WIU    |   WIU    |   WIU    |   WIU    |   WIU    |   WIU    |
|Wk|2011.12.26|2011.12.26|2012.12.31|2012.12.31|2013.12.30|2013.12.30|2014.12.29|2014.12.29|
|  |    to    |    to    |    to    |    to    |    to    |    to    |    to    |    to    |
|  |2012.12.23|2012.12.23|2013.12.29|2013.12.29|2014.12.28|2014.12.28|2015.12.27|2015.12.27|
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| 1|          |          |    70.662|    70.662|    60.548|    60.548|    43.014|    43.014|
| 2|          |          |    21.489|    92.151|    14.029|    74.577|    13.155|    56.169|
| 3|          |          |    16.635|   108.786|    11.036|    85.613|     9.718|    65.887|
| 4|          |          |    12.335|   121.121|     9.461|    95.074|     7.352|    73.239|
| 5|          |          |    11.714|   132.835|     8.679|   103.753|     6.716|    79.955|
| 6|          |          |    11.092|   143.927|     8.605|   112.358|     6.364|    86.319|
| 7|          |          |    10.167|   154.094|     8.706|   121.064|     6.665|    92.984|
| 8|          |          |     9.495|   163.589|     8.129|   129.193|     5.346|    98.330|
| 9|          |          |     9.528|   173.117|     8.515|   137.708|     5.615|   103.945|
|10|          |          |     9.089|   182.206|     8.128|   145.836|     5.973|   109.918|
|11|          |          |     8.567|   190.773|     7.297|   153.133|     6.333|   116.251|
|12|          |          |    10.172|   200.945|     9.504|   162.637|     5.485|   121.736|
|13|          |          |    21.502|   222.447|    13.073|   175.710|     5.298|   127.034|
|14|          |          |    14.413|   236.860|     7.686|   183.396|     5.753|   132.787|
|15|          |          |    10.147|   247.007|     5.693|   189.089|     5.208|   137.995|
|16|          |          |     8.047|   255.054|     5.588|   194.677|     5.008|   143.003|
|17|          |          |     8.058|   263.112|     5.596|   200.273|     6.215|   149.218|
|18|          |          |    10.573|   273.685|     8.217|   208.490|    22.936|   172.154|
|19|          |          |     6.744|   280.429|     8.065|   216.555|     8.864|   181.018|
|20|          |          |     6.058|   286.487|     6.836|   223.391|     6.698|   187.716|
|21|          |          |     5.536|   292.023|     8.858|   232.249|     6.836|   194.552|
|22|          |          |     5.669|   297.692|    19.031|   251.280|    15.787|   210.339|
|23|          |          |     4.549|   302.241|    12.576|   263.856|    17.104|   227.443|
|24|          |          |     5.031|   307.272|    10.366|   274.222|    16.740|   244.183|
|25|          |          |     4.236|   311.508|     8.373|   282.595|    14.868|   259.051|
|26|          |          |     5.846|   317.354|     9.010|   291.605|    14.013|   273.064|
|27|          |          |     6.380|   323.734|     8.020|   299.625|    14.406|   287.470|
|28|          |          |    20.728|   344.462|     8.034|   307.659|    10.981|   298.451|
|29|          |          |    14.024|   358.486|     7.283|   314.942|    12.204|   310.655|
|30|          |          |    10.937|   369.423|     8.623|   323.565|    11.421|   322.076|
|31|          |          |     9.432|   378.855|     8.722|   332.287|    12.589|   334.665|
|32|          |          |     9.291|   388.146|    11.266|   343.553|    14.214|   348.879|
|33|          |          |    10.951|   399.097|    17.717|   361.270|    19.259|   368.138|
|34|          |          |     7.024|   406.121|     7.558|   368.828|    11.632|   379.770|
|35|          |          |     6.239|   412.360|     6.237|   375.065|    11.499|   391.269|
|36|          |          |     5.054|   417.414|     5.551|   380.616|    10.197|   401.466|
|37|          |          |     4.842|   422.256|     5.473|   386.089|    20.564|   422.030|
|38|          |          |     5.147|   427.403|     6.689|   392.778|    18.614|   440.644|
|39|          |          |     5.560|   432.963|     9.197|   401.975|    18.133|   458.777|
|40|          |          |     3.853|   436.816|     6.837|   408.812|    11.996|   470.773|
|41|          |          |     3.405|   440.221|     5.107|   413.919|    10.895|   481.668|
|42|          |          |     3.083|   443.304|     4.017|   417.936|    10.882|   492.550|
|43|          |          |     3.010|   446.314|     3.385|   421.321|     9.349|   501.899|
|44|          |          |    40.118|   486.432|     3.623|   424.944|     8.139|   510.038|
|45|          |          |    14.060|   500.492|     3.884|   428.828|     9.268|   519.306|
|46|          |          |    14.006|   514.498|    12.063|   440.891|    14.861|   534.167|
|47|          |          |    20.177|   534.675|     8.506|   449.397|    13.808|   547.975|
|48|          |          |    27.325|   562.000|    13.533|   462.930|    19.120|   567.095|
|49|          |          |    46.773|   608.773|    27.191|   490.121|    24.527|   591.622|
|50|   308.570|   308.570|    72.982|   681.755|    29.411|   519.532|    47.259|   638.881|
|51|   130.653|   439.223|   119.159|   800.914|    36.397|   555.929|    80.301|   719.182|
|52|   122.356|   561.579|    79.174|   880.088|    48.927|   604.856|   101.122|   820.304|
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+

 

[Nirolak]

Can I get a source on that? I want to read that report. I find the statement overshot by a wiiiide margin but I'd still like to read what Tabata has to say in there in full.

I guess he technically said "highest-profitable", which isn't necessarily unit sales.

I think that would instead put it up against Final Fantasy XI which made a gazillion dollars off of sub fees for 10+ years.

http://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/pdf/ar_2013_01en.pdf

If this was an IGN interview I'd view it as a total whatever statement, but it's addressed to shareholders who use this report to project whether it's worth it to keep investing in the company which puts more weight on it.

 

[theprodigy]

I bet it will fall short by few hundred units. What about famitsu 13 vs 15 comparison?

It's already over because Famitsu doesn't have an extra week for 2015 lol

 

[DarkLordMalik]

I guess he technically said "highest-profitable", which isn't necessarily unit sales.

I think that would instead put it up against Final Fantasy XI which made a gazillion dollars off of sub fees for 10+ years.

http://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/pdf/ar_2013_01en.pdf

Lets not dig the past here. He was still listed as a co-director here

 

[Nirolak]

Lets not dig the past here. He was still listed as a co-director here

They can always lower expectations, yes, they did just go through a series of financial write-offs last quarter.

They did that with most of Eidos' titles at one point too IIRC.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

They can always lower expectations, yes, they did just go through a series of financial write-offs last quarter.

I think SE will be more than happy if FFXV can match the WW sales of FFXIII (6+ million), considering the current state of market.

What's more important here is for the latest entry in the series to regain the trust of the fans after the disaster that was FFXIII.

 

[Chris1964]

The Splatoon effect

+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+
|  | Famitsu  | Famitsu  | Famitsu  | Famitsu  |
|  |   WIU    |   WIU    |   PS4    |   PS4    |
|Wk|2014.12.29|2014.12.29|2014.12.29|2014.12.29|
|  |    to    |    to    |    to    |    to    |
|  |2015.12.27|2015.12.27|2015.12.27|2015.12.27|
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| 1|    43.014|    43.014|    35.789|    35.789|
| 2|    13.155|    56.169|    16.716|    52.505|
| 3|     9.718|    65.887|    13.074|    65.579|
| 4|     7.352|    73.239|    11.513|    77.092|
| 5|     6.716|    79.955|    13.971|    91.063|
| 6|     6.364|    86.319|    14.812|   105.875|
| 7|     6.665|    92.984|    17.981|   123.856|
| 8|     5.346|    98.330|    23.210|   147.066|
| 9|     5.615|   103.945|    46.495|   193.561|
|10|     5.973|   109.918|    32.946|   226.507|
|11|     6.333|   116.251|    30.647|   257.154|
|12|     5.485|   121.736|    47.429|   304.583|
|13|     5.298|   127.034|    46.830|   351.413|
|14|     5.753|   132.787|    26.928|   378.341|
|15|     5.208|   137.995|    16.831|   395.172|
|16|     5.008|   143.003|    14.324|   409.496|
|17|     6.215|   149.218|    19.516|   429.012|
|18|    22.936|   172.154|    17.671|   446.683|
|19|     8.864|   181.018|    14.591|   461.274|
|20|     6.698|   187.716|    10.945|   472.219|
|21|     6.836|   194.552|    10.846|   483.065|
|22|    15.787|   210.339|    11.327|   494.392|
|23|    17.104|   227.443|    10.137|   504.529|
|24|    16.740|   244.183|    10.117|   514.646|
|25|    14.868|   259.051|    12.748|   527.394|
|26|    14.013|   273.064|    11.977|   539.371|
|27|    14.406|   287.470|    15.182|   554.553|
|28|    10.981|   298.451|    12.906|   567.459|
|29|    12.204|   310.655|    22.380|   589.839|
|30|    11.421|   322.076|    15.256|   605.095|
|31|    12.589|   334.665|    13.192|   618.287|
|32|    14.214|   348.879|    13.104|   631.391|
|33|    19.259|   368.138|    17.420|   648.811|
|34|    11.632|   379.770|    13.525|   662.336|
|35|    11.499|   391.269|    17.321|   679.657|
|36|    10.197|   401.466|    54.720|   734.377|
|37|    20.564|   422.030|    18.354|   752.731|
|38|    18.614|   440.644|    10.558|   763.289|
|39|    18.133|   458.777|     6.793|   770.082|
|40|    11.996|   470.773|    43.372|   813.454|
|41|    10.895|   481.668|    28.597|   842.051|
|42|    10.882|   492.550|    25.350|   867.401|
|43|     9.349|   501.899|    21.562|   888.963|
|44|     8.139|   510.038|    20.850|   909.813|
|45|     9.268|   519.306|    32.593|   942.406|
|46|    14.861|   534.167|    27.150|   969.556|
|47|    13.808|   547.975|    26.472|   996.028|
|48|    19.120|   567.095|    24.516| 1.020.544|
|49|    24.527|   591.622|    34.366| 1.054.910|
|50|    47.259|   638.881|    40.289| 1.095.199|
|51|    80.301|   719.182|    49.634| 1.144.833|
|52|   101.122|   820.304|    60.330| 1.205.163|
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+

 

[Nirolak]

I think SE will be more than happy if FFXV can match the WW sales of FFXIII (6+ million), considering the current state of market.

What's more important here is for the latest entry in the series to regain the trust of the fans after the disaster that was FFXIII.

Yes I think any *reasonable* expectation for the game would be happy with 5+ million since that would make budgeting and selling the next entry pretty straightforward and profitable. That level of sales would pass the bar at basically any publisher for continuing a series (not that this is something up for discussion here regardless, but just in the "I, publisher _________, will greenlight a title if it will sell at least X million copies" sense).

It's just, you know, they've had pretty high expectations historically.

 

[Pennywise83]

I feel 6m would not be that good for a game such as FFXV, aiming at the Western audience and releasing on one of the most successful (so far) home platforms ever. Also, FFXIII ww LTD is close to 7m on consoles only (was 6.6m in Jan 2013).

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Yes I think any *reasonable* expectation for the game would be happy with 5+ million since that would make budgeting and selling the next entry pretty straightforward and profitable. That level of sales would pass the bar at basically any publisher for continuing a series (not that this is something up for discussion here regardless, but just in the "I will greenlight a title if it will sell at least X million copies" sense).

It's just, you know, they've had pretty high expectations historically.

Correct me if I am wrong, but that was mostly under "His Imperial Hot" i.e Wada's rule, no? I remember games like Tomb Raider and the spin-offs of FFXIII for this reason in particular.

Now that the CEO is different, it is hard to determine their expectations based on history alone.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

I think SE will be more than happy if FFXV can match the WW sales of FFXIII (6+ million), considering the current state of market.

What's more important here is for the latest entry in the series to regain the trust of the fans after the disaster that was FFXIII.

I doubt they would be "more than happy" to sell only 6 million copies of an AAA game that's been in development for over a decade.