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April 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
slavesnyder
Member
Don't know, but why not?
a) he is working at some place doing analytical stuff on a job labelled "analyst". Then he's an analyst.
b) he is collecting data (undeniable) and puts them together (true) and comes to conclusions (he does, often even to interesting ones). That's what analysts do. So he's an analyst.
So I see no harm here. In my opinion, we have quite a bunch of analysts here in sales GAF that might not earn their money with it (yet), but who provide great service. I would not be surprised if in the end some well-paid analysts get some inspiration from the work of passion by a bunch of teenies hanging around he are hatching excel sheets like we did with our tamagotchi in the 90s.
Bonus question: Am I a banjo player if I can play a banjo?
Bruno MB
Member
My predictions for the biggest new releases of the month:
Dark Souls III - 515,000
Ratchet & Clank - 235,000
Quantum Break - 180,000
Star Fox Zero - 130,000
I have adjusted up my Ratchet & Clank prediction because I now realize that it was released in the US a week earlier.
Dark Souls III - 515,000
Ratchet & Clank - 235,000
Quantum Break - 180,000
Star Fox Zero - 130,000
I have adjusted up my Ratchet & Clank prediction because I now realize that it was released in the US a week earlier.
I say ~300k for Ratchet & Clank. Fight me! :O
DriftingSpirit
Member
I say ~200K but ~300K would be fantastic!
My prediction is that quantum break falls like a rock. It's sank so fast in our stores to join the ranks of largely forgotten titles. Oy. No momentum at all.
Uncharted verily exploded though. Very positive so far. Our Sony rep is ecstatic. Exceptional results in the word of mouth and the reception around the game, but we'll see if it holds up for any length of time. It is a slow time of year, so maybe that will help give it staying power.
Uncharted verily exploded though. Very positive so far. Our Sony rep is ecstatic. Exceptional results in the word of mouth and the reception around the game, but we'll see if it holds up for any length of time. It is a slow time of year, so maybe that will help give it staying power.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
How did R&C do if you don't mind me asking.
Started quietly, but gained more positivity and attention with the reviews, low price and good word of mouth. Seemed to help a good bit. It's not like, a block buster, but it's solid.
What you predict for Bravely Second?
gundamkyoukai
Member
Interesting to see what UC going to do .
Not that bold.
Crimson_Gold
Member
Idk, Harper is slugging and the cubs are winning. DC and Chicago will be all over mlb
CosmicQueso
Member
He's been a professional analyst for a while. Not in the video games sector professionally yet, but neither was anyone else until they were.
Indeed they do.
slavesnyder
Member
Reminds me to watch the gametrailers-Neogaf-documentary once again. In the end, Pachter led me here for the first time.
... thread is not moving for the last 10 minutes on NPD evening... I hope not that everyone now is watching the gametrailers-Neogaf-documentary.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
Don't we usually get it like 5-6pm est
slavesnyder
Member
Customers get the numbers about now.
PR is busy.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
Yea that's the unfortunate thing when NPD is too predictable.
"Quantum Break made more revenue than Ratchet and Clank*"
*the movie, not the game, but this is written in such a small font that you won't be able to notice any way, so suck it. Plus, we've already done this with SPECTRE, so there's precedence. Why do you care anyway, GAF? I've got kids to feed. You try coming up with this shit month over month.
slavesnyder
Member
Did I mess up? Should I go back and fix it or is it too late?
By the way guys it looks like Overwatch just had the largest beta ever with 9.7 million players. Not just for a new IP bit for any game EVER. The beta had more participants than The Division has "registered users"! This game is going to be massive
Beautiful Ninja
Member
Battleborn the new poster child of a game being sent to die.
Rex what you done.
Damnit! I fixed it. I didn't change any figures. Hopefully it's not too late!
slavesnyder
Member
Just out of interest: How low does it have to sell to be considered as dead?
It will be beaten clearly by overwatch. Okay. It will constantly be compared to overwatch. Fair. But is it impossible that it sells well enough to do just fine?
Orthogonal
Member
That would be amazing growth. I think DS2 was well below 300K in its first month.
Donny please tell me I fixed it in time! In my excitement to post after my long ban I completely forgot the proper formatting T_T
It was below 350,000, not 300,000.
Of course you didnt - but knowing Donnny he probably had a look through at stuff that couldnt be parsed and manually fixed it so it could be included
ps3ud0 8)
Beautiful Ninja
Member
Well according to Gearbox themselves, it's only barely tracking ahead of Borderlands 1. Borderlands 1 didn't sell well at launch, it ended up gaining steam post launch once word of mouth hit about how good the game was. Battleborn also likely cost much more to make than Borderlands 1 did.
Battleborn isn't getting that word of mouth.
The first week UK sales of it had it barely outselling BLOPS III on the combined SKU's by like 100 units and to less than 18k total units sold. On the individual charts it got outsold by third week Ratchet and Clank and months old PS4 BLOPS III. The game basically debuted to a wet fart and with Overwatch looming there's pretty much no hope for it to try to establish a player base.
you already know the winner but just don't want to accept it
i kid i kid
slavesnyder
Member
okay, I see. That's not really a success story. Thanks.
It's as everyone predicted.
Ethomaz
AnthonypUK
Member
it sold <18k for both XBO and PS4 SKU's week one, which is less then Quantum break, the order, ROTR, Streetfighter V in the UK, and they were one platform only.
If that trend is the same in the US, battleborn could be something like <150k units in its first month. its only sold 82k on steam worldwide so far.
so its not like in isolation it sold just fine, nevermind taking into consideration Overwatches performance (which will be much stronger on non NPD tracked PC imo.)
I hope so. This would be the first NPD prediction I've missed in 2.5 years of not... Uggh I don't even wanna think about it. I'm incredibly upset with myself. Cannot believe I overlooked the formatting
Yep and to add to that a bit the peak active users on steam dropped 80% on day 3 and has yet to go back above 25% of total tracked steam sales. That's a terrible retention rate. Especially so shortly after the game's release. So yea it's not looking good.
RealityPales
Member
If R&C > Quantum Break
Wow.
Wow.
slavesnyder
Member
Isn't this expected by now?
Crimson_Gold
Member
I wouldn't be too shocked. $20 difference in price and good WoM helps
It would seem likely given that R&C is an established IP with much broader appeal; not to say that wouldn't still be painful for QB.
Beautiful Ninja
Member
If the UK numbers are any indication, it won't be If, but by how much. Ratchet and Clank has managed to keep the #1 sales spot on UK individual charts for the 3 weeks it's been out there.
The only thing QB seems to have going for it saleswise is that it came out a week sooner, but sales seem to have died down pretty much right after launch, while Ratchet and Clank is cashing in on some huge word of mouth.