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June U.S. Primaries |OT| Hey June

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X

Xe4

Banned
I do think there is a clear difference in the campaigns at this moment by the fact that when Clinton brought up Sanders the audience cheered, but when Sanders brought up Clinton, his audience booed. Some of this has to do with the fact that one is loosing and the other not, but it was very unsportsmanlike, and I'm going to call it out.

I'm glad he didn't attack Clinton and focused his attention on Trump, although I still don't want him to go to Philly as a candidate. I'd love him as a speaker though.
 
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RustyNails

Member
So...close to half the vote in Cali is in and Hills is leading by 20 points. If this margin holds, how the hell did last several polls had her winning only by 2%? I know its too early to talk, but i dont see how in such a populous state Bernie can narrow the gap to single digits with 60% of the vote remaining.
 
B

border

Member
Sanders is currently losing California 60-40, with 40% of precincts reporting. How much closer are people expecting the race to be?
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Mr. RPG said:
He didn't thank my state (at least not from what I remember), but I'm not crying over it. :p

Does Hillary thank the voters from each individual state she loses?
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Yes she does, almost every single time. A candidate does NOT pretend that states s/he lost simply don't exist. It's terrible optics. It's awful. It's disrespectful to the people in those states who voted for him.
 
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hawk2025

Member
border said:
Sanders is currently losing California 60-40, with 40% of precincts reporting. How much closer are people expecting the race to be?
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I expected the gap to close a hell of a lot, but when San Francisco has a 12pt gap... My guess is that it will settle at 12-15 or so?
 
X

Xe4

Banned
border said:
Sanders is currently losing California 60-40, with 40% of precincts reporting. How much closer are people expecting the race to be?
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A bit. Clinton is definetly overpreforming. Her results at the ballot box (not mail in) are 54-46 last time I looked, so it's probably not going below that. I'd guess 57-43.
 
D

danm999

Member
RustyNails said:
So...close to half the vote in Cali is in and Hills is leading by 20 points. If this margin holds, how the hell did last several polls had her winning only by 2%? I know its too early to talk, but i dont see how in such a populous state Bernie can narrow the gap to single digits with 60% of the vote remaining.
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The fraud was too effective.
 
L

Loxley

Member
Kite said:
lol Chill folks, I'm betting that once Obama officially supports Clinton Bernie will become irrelevant. He has no more $$, no more staff, hit pieces and negative news articles, getting back-stabbed by staff, becoming more and more isolated. lol The guy is done, Clinton should just ignore him.
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Yeah, after today literally the guy's only hope at this point is if Hillary gets indicted or falls into a sinkhole to the center of the Earth, neither of which are likely to happen.

He's going to drop out, I think it's why he made a "bigger picture" statement in his speech tonight and made a direct attack on Trump instead of Hillary. He doesn't outright endorse her, just heavily implies to his constituents that a vote for Hillary is better than a vote for Drumpf. He's basically prepping them for his concession.
 
M

Meowster

Member
RustyNails said:
So...close to half the vote in Cali is in and Hills is leading by 20 points. If this margin holds, how the hell did last several polls had her winning only by 2%? I know its too early to talk, but i dont see how in such a populous state Bernie can narrow the gap to single digits with 60% of the vote remaining.
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The will of the people decided to declare the coronation.

image.php
 
8

8 X 11 Printer Paper

Member
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 25s
Clinton ahead by 11 points in San Francisco with all of the Election Day vote counted. She lost the Election Day vote there by 90 votes

Says it all really.
 
J

Jorok Goldblade

Member
RustyNails said:
So...close to half the vote in Cali is in and Hills is leading by 20 points. If this margin holds, how the hell did last several polls had her winning only by 2%? I know its too early to talk, but i dont see how in such a populous state Bernie can narrow the gap to single digits with 60% of the vote remaining.
Click to expand...

The polls that had a narrow victory were among all registered voters eligible to vote in the primary. When it was filtered for likely voters, she had a 10 point lead.
 
M

Mr. RPG

Member
Jorok Goldblade said:
The polls that had a narrow victory were among all registered voters eligible to vote in the primary. When it was filtered for likely voters, she had a 10 point lead.
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There were 4 polls (all recent) that had Hillary ahead by only 2 points.

Bernie's supporters didn't come out to vote. That's why he lost so badly.

Turnout very low in California on election day.

Edit: It is strange that no one is talking about the one state that Bernie actually did very well in and almost won which was New Mexico. That would have been a decent upset.
 
T

Thunder Monkey

Banned
danm999 said:
She could well get close to 2383 without supers.

Well, within 150 or so.
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If the margins stay just north of 12 then yeah. Probably closer to 100 delegates. She's going to be very close to that magic number Sanders has been disingenuously floating around.

Even if she hit the actual pledged delegate majority much earlier in the night.
 
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madstarr12

Member
It'll probably end up 55-45 +/- 2 in California. She over-performed. She also surprised in South Dakota, that one Hillary island in a sea of Bernie.

She will have the majority of pledged delegates, it's over. There is no "slim" chance, well, unless she's indicted or some crazy "insider info" from that Trump speech next time.

Mr. RPG said:
Bernie's supporters didn't come out to vote. That's why he lost so badly.
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You sure that there weren't just more Hillary fans than Berners?
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Mr. RPG said:
There were 4 polls (all recent) that had Hillary ahead by only 2 points.

Bernie's supporters didn't come out to vote. That's why he lost so badly.

Turnout wasn't good in California on election day.
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OR I'm thinking Hillary's widely praised lambasting of Trump's foreign policy combined with Trump's comments about Judge Curiel worked towards her favor immensely. I just dont see how 4 or 5 polls all with a specific 2% margin of victory shat the bed at the same time.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Mr. RPG said:
There were 4 polls (all recent) that had Hillary ahead by only 2 points.

Bernie's supporters didn't come out to vote. That's why he lost so badly.

Turnout wasn't good in California on election day.
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No. The polls and mail-in exit poll undersampled older Hispanic (and Asian) voters.
 
X

Xe4

Banned
I don't see any feasible way for Clinton to win on pledged delegates alone. Assuming margins in all states but Cali remain the same, she sweeps DC and gets 60% in California, which is the best possible realistic scenatio for her, she's still ~80 delegates short.

Now that's actually really good for Clinton, as getting 80 supers should be a piece of cake. It does give Sanders more barging than he would otherwise have, even just a little.

All in all though Clinton did very well this primary. If there were no caucuses, I feel confident that she would have easily won by pledged delegates, because Caucuses tend to (but not always) tilt waaaaaay in Sander's favor.

Anyways, I figured I'd give do the math just in case anyone was wondering.
 
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madstarr12

Member
Xe4 said:
I don't see any feasible way for Clinton to win on pledged delegates alone. Assuming margins in all states but Cali remain the same, she sweeps DC and gets 60% in California, which is the best possible realistic scenatio for her, she's still ~80 delegates short.

Now that's actually really good for Clinton, as getting 80 supers should be a piece of cake. It does give Sanders more barging than he would otherwise have, even just a little.

All in all though Clinton did very well this primary. If there were no caucuses, I feel confident that she would have easily won by pledged delegates, because Caucuses tend to (but not always) tilt waaaaaay in Sander's favor.

Anyways, I figured I'd give do the math just in case anyone was wondering.
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But once all votes are counted and delegates are distributed, she would have won a majority of pledged delegates.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
Based on total pledge delegates she will get the majority which is 2026 and based on total delegates which includes supers she already exceeded that. I don't think Obama even got majority of pledged delegates; he had to get supers to get over the pledged delegate threshold. Hillary already is going to get both.
 
G

giga

Member
Las7 said:
So wait people here are actually expecting Hillary to win California?
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Las7 said:
Nate and 538 were closer than other outlets with projections but all the states you quoted the projections they had based on polls and polls plus were still pretty far from the actual results.



Prepare to be shocked
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Where you at bruh?

CkWdNpDVAAAOEeD.jpg


California sitting at 56/43 Hillary right now and benchmark expects it to end at 54/46.
 
T

TyrantII

Member
RustyNails said:
So...close to half the vote in Cali is in and Hills is leading by 20 points. If this margin holds, how the hell did last several polls had her winning only by 2%? I know its too early to talk, but i dont see how in such a populous state Bernie can narrow the gap to single digits with 60% of the vote remaining.
Click to expand...

Their methodology was wrong; IE what part of the electorate would show up to vote.

Just going by census data, Cali is much morr like large Northeast states only with even larger Latino populations.

I guess the question is why did they weight their methodology to favor Sanders, when population says otherwise. Maybe they figure people wouldn't show up because California "didn't matter" much for the top ticket. But Id argue Californians are much more tuned into local tickets as well .
 
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Random17

Member
American Greens are ruining their reputation by attacking Hillary, but that's not surprising in a two party system. It's a shame really.
 
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TyrantII

Member
Y2Kev said:
Plus she switched to jill stein like a week ago.
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You're kidding.

My respect of her just dropped if so.

Least Eva Longoria had a good head on her shoulders.

Random17 said:
American Greens are ruining their reputation by attacking Hillary, but that's not surprising in a two party system. It's a shame really.
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What reputation?

These are the same people that had antiVax ideology in their platform along with being anti-GMO, and anti-Nuclear.

They dont have any plan to govern or represent anything other than a pissy minority of the fringe. And they dont vote consistently.
 
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