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June U.S. Primaries |OT| Hey June

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S

Slayven

Member
3phemeral said:
Let the salt flow.

keVZoSd.png
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who dat?
 
M

Maxim726X

Member
TyrantII said:
Their methodology was wrong; IE what part of the electorate would show up to vote.

Just going by census data, Cali is much morr like large Northeast states only with even larger Latino populations.

I guess the question is why did they weight their methodology to favor Sanders, when population says otherwise. Maybe they figure people wouldn't show up because California "didn't matter" much for the top ticket. But Id argue Californians are much more tuned into local tickets as well .
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I think if anything, this primary season has proven how difficult it is to properly gauge the Latino vote/participation.

Which should be very comforting to Democrats... Further proving that Trump has almost an impossible demographics hill to climb, and he's digging himself further under the ground instead of trying to reach out. He really has no idea what he's in for, but the party does. They really are fucked.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
TyrantII said:
Their methodology was wrong; IE what part of the electorate would show up to vote.

Just going by census data, Cali is much morr like large Northeast states only with even larger Latino populations.

I guess the question is why did they weight their methodology to favor Sanders, when population says otherwise. Maybe they figure people wouldn't show up because California "didn't matter" much for the top ticket. But Id argue Californians are much more tuned into local tickets as well .
Click to expand...

Most likely is they didn't have enough Spanish speaking callers and over-represented young respondents as a result.
 
D

Darryl M R

Member
Adaren said:
I'm disappointed that we'll never get to see Bernie's tax returns. :/
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Bernie plan wanted me to pay 7k more in taxes a year. DC rent is so expensive and most of my check goes to paying for that and he expects me to be able to just drop 7k in taxes?

Nah; at least plan to defund something to help offset the tax hikes he would have for most people.

I grew up poor, did good in HS. Went to a top university with scholarship and now have a good job because I majored in something that would get me a career. But there is no way I could go without 7k a year.

8jpOzop.png
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What's really good.
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
Wow, Bernie voters didn't turn out at all in Cali.

So they can come to rallies, but they can't come to the voter booths?
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Measley said:
Wow, Bernie voters didn't turn out at all in Cali.

So they can come to rallies, but they can't come to the voter booths?
Click to expand...

Big rallies don't equal big support. Just because you can pull 100k people doesn't mean everyone in that area supports you. It doesn't even mean a majority of the people in that area support you.
 
3

3phemeral

Member
B-Dubs said:
Big rallies don't equal big support. Just because you can pull 100k people doesn't mean everyone in that area supports you. It doesn't even mean a majority of the people in that area support you.
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I wonder how much overlap and percentage of those rallies were just people who proclaimed they'd purely visit his rallies "because they wanted to be a part of a historical event" and with those who actually didn't care about voting for anything he campaigned for.
 
M

Maledict

Member
Geg said:
Is something like this even possible at this stage? I guess if they changed a lot of the rules specifically to get Trump out
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It would require unprecedented rules changes - you would have to "unbind" all pledged delegates for the first round of voting, and then hope that enough would vote against Trump that he didn't get it. The only way that would happen is if something truly catastrophic turned up that meant he was, without and quibbling, completely unelectable. His racism against a judge doesn't come close to that unfortunately.
 
G

Grover Cleveland

Member
Geg said:
Is something like this even possible at this stage? I guess if they changed a lot of the rules specifically to get Trump out
Click to expand...


The GOP writes the rules for their party's convention so in theory they could do whatever they want and change whatever rules necessary to get it done.

It's too late for them to jerryrig it so that Trump gets kicked out if they want to keep any credibility with their constituency. It would almost assuredly guarantee a third party run from Trump and there's a decent chance that that third party never comes back home for the Elephants.
 
G

gcubed

Member
Maledict said:
It would require unprecedented rules changes - you would have to "unbind" all pledged delegates for the first round of voting, and then hope that enough would vote against Trump that he didn't get it. The only way that would happen is if something truly catastrophic turned up that meant he was, without and quibbling, completely unelectable. His racism against a judge doesn't come close to that unfortunately.
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and if they just moved over to Cruz its not like its any better. They'd have to jump beyond the top two finishers. I mean, if you are going to burn it down, you don't jump from a burning house into a burning dumpster. So, its not going to happen. They are going to let it fall apart, use it as a reason to change a bunch of rules to discourage it from happening again, blame it on the fact that he wasn't a true conservative, and try again in 4 years
 
J

jmdajr

Member
Maledict said:
It would require unprecedented rules changes - you would have to "unbind" all pledged delegates for the first round of voting, and then hope that enough would vote against Trump that he didn't get it. The only way that would happen is if something truly catastrophic turned up that meant he was, without and quibbling, completely unelectable. His racism against a judge doesn't come close to that unfortunately.
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Can't be booted for being a fucking asshole unfortunately.

It's nuts that the requirements are so fucking minimal. Essentially you just have to be a dude born in the U.S. then and sucker enough of them into voting or you.

that's it!
 
M

Meowster

Member
I always thought she'd win by decent margins like this in California but I would have also thought that him being there for months on end and making it the entire crux of his campaign would have made the numbers tighten a bit.
 
C

cbrun44

Member
Darryl M R said:
Bernie plan wanted me to pay 7k more in taxes a year. DC rent is so expensive and most of my check goes to paying for that and he expects me to be able to just drop 7k in taxes?

Nah; at least plan to defund something to help offset the tax hikes he would have for most people.

I grew up poor, did good in HS. Went to a top university with scholarship and now have a good job because I majored in something that would get me a career. But there is no way I could go without 7k a year.

What's really good.
Click to expand...


Based on one of the online tax calculators, under Bernie's plan my wife and I would have had to pay 30,000 additional. I literally don't know where I would have come up with an additional 30,000. Between childcare and just living life that would have killed us.

I'm more than willing to pay more, but Bernie's plan was excessive.

So adios Bernie. Let's get it Hillary!!!
 
A

ampere

Member
Look at poll aggregates not individual polls
Recognize that Latinos are undersampled and harder to poll in general

All signs pointed to a big California win for Hillary, but DEAD HEAT is more exciting to talk about in the news
 
P

Paskil

Member
Hillary's Correct the Record people probably came in after each Bernie rally and scooped up all the attendees and held them hostage until after the polls closed last night. We should breaking news at some point soon of a mass exodus of confused Bernie supporters numbering the hundreds of thousands trying to make their way home.
 
Kite

Kite

Member
Measley said:
Wow, Bernie voters didn't turn out at all in Cali.

So they can come to rallies, but they can't come to the voter booths?
Click to expand...
lol Ask Romney about the whole huge rallies not equaling winning. Bernie should have paid attention to Romney's failure.

It may be his supporters, or it may be those getting a glimpse of the GOP nominee for the first time, but Mitt Romney’s crowds are getting bigger in the campaign’s final stretch.

Since his strong presidential debate performance last Wednesday night, Romney has seen a bump in the number of people attending his rallies, which the campaign calls a sign of new enthusiasm in the final month of the campaign.

In the past week alone, Romney’s campaign says at least three of its rallies have, per the campaign’s crowd counts, exceeded 10,000 people: an Oct. 4 event with country singer Trace Adkins in Fishersville, Va., which was Romney’s largest event ever at 14,000 people; a rally last Sunday in Port St. Lucie, Fla., that drew 12,000; and one in Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio, that fire marshals estimated also drew 12,000. . .

“Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are more fired up about this election, and fired up about Gov. Romney,” Gorka said. “The debate helped crystallize that energy and it’s translating to our events.”
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http://www.politico.com/story/2012/10/mitt-drawing-larger-crowds-082348
 
DeviantBoi

DeviantBoi

Member
Maledict said:
It would require unprecedented rules changes - you would have to "unbind" all pledged delegates for the first round of voting, and then hope that enough would vote against Trump that he didn't get it. The only way that would happen is if something truly catastrophic turned up that meant he was, without and quibbling, completely unelectable. His racism against a judge doesn't come close to that unfortunately.
Click to expand...

Which is why I hope the Dems save the big guns till after he gets the nomination.
 
DeviantBoi

DeviantBoi

Member
ampere said:
Look at poll aggregates not individual polls
Recognize that Latinos are undersampled and harder to poll in general

All signs pointed to a big California win for Hillary, but DEAD HEAT is more exciting to talk about in the news
Click to expand...
A dead heat is more profitable for the networks.

Which is probably why Clinton v Trump is gonna be portrayed as a very close election.

It might not be true, but it will help get those Dems out to vote if they think a Trump presidency is a very real possibility.
 
DeviantBoi

DeviantBoi

Member
Measley said:
Wow, Bernie voters didn't turn out at all in Cali.

So they can come to rallies, but they can't come to the voter booths?
Click to expand...
Could be:

1. The AP naming Clinton the winner of the primary.
2. Disenchantment from Bernie's statements recently.
3. People were planning on voting Hillary all along but wanted to hear Bernie out at the rallies.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
Measley said:
Wow, Bernie voters didn't turn out at all in Cali.

So they can come to rallies, but they can't come to the voter booths?
Click to expand...

I think a lot of the crowd is there for the crowd, not necessarily for Sanders. This isn't a personal indictment on him, I think that's the case for many large rallies.
 
T

Thequietone

Member
Measley said:
Wow, Bernie voters didn't turn out at all in Cali.

So they can come to rallies, but they can't come to the voter booths?
Click to expand...
Not trying to be snarky or anything, but if you have a rally in Oakland and it's mostly a white crowd that is not good for your chances of winning California.
 
T

Talka

Member
Just took a peak at r/SandersForPresident and saw this gem:

xLupKKn.png


Yeah, let's all take a moment and appreciate just how far "old white guys" have come in this country.
 
O

OriginofHysteria

Banned
cbrun44 said:
Based on one of the online tax calculators, under Bernie's plan my wife and I would have had to pay 30,000 additional. I literally don't know where I would have come up with an additional 30,000. Between childcare and just living life that would have killed us.

I'm more than willing to pay more, but Bernie's plan was excessive.

So adios Bernie. Let's get it Hillary!!!
Click to expand...

That's insane. I remember a guy at my job said 'Let's see all the people who vote for Sanders support him after receiving their paycheck'
 
L

Loxley

Member
I wonder what it's like to live in such a closed off bubble that you genuinely believe the United States will, like, cease to exist when your candidate of choice (whom you've placed all of your hopes and dreams on) doesn't get elected. That's got to be the strangest feeling in the world. I suppose it speaks to the power of politicians' to enrapture folks and get them to (I don't mean this in a mean-spirited way) fall under their spell.
 
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