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Is Hillary up for the biggest Presidential landslide victory in history?
- Thread starter PeakPointMatrix
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15 points is far beyond "not much better".
Bobby Roberts
Banned
He keeps shooting himself in the fuckin' mouth with it, yeah.
Here's my issue with making such a prediction.. it seems every month we hear about the "breaking point" for Trump's campaign, and for every given example so far these statements about Trump's campaign reaching its breaking point have been dead wrong
Also, while Trump is polling as the most unpopular nominee in election history, Hilary is polling as the second most unpopular nominee in election history.
Do I want Hilary to beat Trump? absolutely, but thus far I see nothing worth getting cocky over.. the fact of the matter is Donald Trump may very well be our next president
Also, while Trump is polling as the most unpopular nominee in election history, Hilary is polling as the second most unpopular nominee in election history.
Do I want Hilary to beat Trump? absolutely, but thus far I see nothing worth getting cocky over.. the fact of the matter is Donald Trump may very well be our next president
Bobby Roberts
Banned
This is about as probable as Bernie Sanders' having won the democratic nomination. People believed in it long, long after it was actually plausible, because there was something alluring in the narrative of it that allowed them to minimize or completely sidestep everything that was screaming otherwise.
It is more likely that Trump actually quits the race than it is he wins it.
Perfect Blue
Banned
This is the most likely outcome, IMO.I think it ends up like this.
It's possible Clinton also picks up Georgia, South Carolina, and Utah.
wha??
Ironically, that kind of polarization may help Democrats this time around. The Democrats actually picked up two Senate seats in 1972 and 1984 even though their presidential candidates got thumped. That kind of vote splitting just doesn't exist anymore.
Wowfunhappy
Member
Unless you think the US is going to fall apart in the next few decades, I think it's a bit early to make ultimatums. Times change.
No?
Arizona isn't on there. She has a better chance at AZ than Georgia and definitely Utah.
AuthenticM
Member
No.
How the fuck did that happen?
Hasn't changed yet. Trump should be getting laughed out the building and instead he is proving a worthy opponent. This election will be a wake up call as to what the US is really like, and I wish I could say I was confident trump won't make it close.
The Republican Party is endorsing this man. The party that controls congress and half the country. That alone speaks volumes for whothe people in this country really are
Pretty much everything in this post is wrong. If anything, people have been overestimating Trump based on his performance in the Republican primary which had a pathetic lineup. He has been fumbling pretty much every day since the GE cycle truly kicked into gear during the last real week of primary campaigning from the Dem side. He squandered every opportunity he had (the short bit of bickering among Dems, Orlando which played into his anti-Muslim rhetoric) and his polls are sinking to the ground. His campaign is basically non-existent.
Hillary has been attacked for the past forever. Republicans have hated her and smeared her for ages. We pretty much know everything about her, plus things that aren't even true. And it'd be a lie to say it doesn't matter or that people don't care, but it's just not enough to sink her. If Trump has any ammunition to use against Hillary, it's almost certain that he'll probably end up hurting himself with how he handles things. The stuff that made him popular with Republican primary voters simply won't work with the general electorate, and he doesn't know how to do anything else. The debates are going to be embarrassing for him; especially since Hillary & Dems have shown that they have no interest in playing nice and passive with Trump.
It's not going to be a landslide in the sense the OP suggested, but it's not going to be as close as you think.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
The '80s were a really fucked up decade.
People love romanticizing it but holy shit
DeaconKnowledge
Member
My guess is voter turnout for this election is going to be low, which will help negate any gains Hillary might have gained from her opponent being Trump.
The Apathy for Hillary is high.
The Apathy for Hillary is high.
Joeys_Rattata
Neo Member
tbh this is the absolute best I can see Hillary doing. And this is like, doomsday scenario for Trump, calling Hillary a bitch in the middle of a debate, RNC completely abandoning him, etc.
maaaybe give montana to Hillary too. I can't really see her ever winning the plains states, most of the deep south, or a good chunk of the mountain west.
maaaybe give montana to Hillary too. I can't really see her ever winning the plains states, most of the deep south, or a good chunk of the mountain west.
AuthenticM
Member
Up here in Canada we elected Trudeau Sr multiple times and he gave us the Canadian Charter of Freedom and Rights.
Crazy how two countries so close can be so mentally different.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Reagan benefitted from a number of factors. The economy was in recovery from the early 1980s recession. GDP growth was strong and unemployment, while relatively high in an absolute sense, had been falling sharply. The Democrats also faced an uphill battle given that this election was only four years removed from the end of Jimmy Carter's presidency, which was largely seen as a failure.
Democrats were also facing more fundamental trouble, as their coalition had been coming apart at the seams since the late 1960s, with several of their former key constituencies (e.g., Southerners, working-class whites) defecting to the Republicans. Indeed, of the six presidential elections between 1968 and 1988, Republicans won five. Four were landslides, two of them ranked among the biggest landslides in US history. The only Democratic win came in 1976 in the wake of the Watergate scandal and a weak economy, and Jimmy Carter still only barely managed to defeat Gerald Ford.
Mondale himself was a deeply flawed candidate. He was fundamentally an old-school New Deal Democratic politician in an era when that no longer appealed to enough people to put together a majority. He made some big mistakes on the campaign trail, including telling the American people that he would raise their taxes (the comment was defensible in context, but that context certainly wasn't going to be used when the Republicans attacked him on it). His choice of running mate, Geraldine Ferraro, went over poorly. It was hoped that she would appeal to women, but the selection was regarded as more of a pander, and her husband had some skeletons in his closet that hurt the ticket.
Long story short, Reagan was running for re-election in a time of economic growth, while the Democratic Party was struggling to find itself, and Mondale was a poor candidate. Those factors all combined to produce one of the most lopsided elections ever.
yanipheonu
Member
I always wondered what would happen if something similar to what happened in Canada's last election might happen in the States.
Essentially, the Liberals got more seats that many polls had expected, and voter turnout, especially amongst the youth, had increased.
Certainly not apples to apples, but I do wonder if you might see a variation of this. A push back against Trump's campaign, and an increase in people coming out to vote because of it.
And there have been interesting notions that rather than a Trump Right-wing Movement taking hold, you see an increase in left-wing support in America as a reaction to Trump.
Essentially, the Liberals got more seats that many polls had expected, and voter turnout, especially amongst the youth, had increased.
Certainly not apples to apples, but I do wonder if you might see a variation of this. A push back against Trump's campaign, and an increase in people coming out to vote because of it.
And there have been interesting notions that rather than a Trump Right-wing Movement taking hold, you see an increase in left-wing support in America as a reaction to Trump.
Well you know something? I hope you're right.. I just don't believe you're right
He has been falling in the polls more recently, so there is some indication that you are right.. however, there also was a time when he was behind Ben Carson in the polls
OrbitalBeard
Member
I'd really love to see a blowout in favor of the Democrats. I desperately want to see the GOP become more progressive. I really don't like having so much disgust with one of our main parties.
I think so. Trump has blown it. Didn't take advantage of the momentum coming out of the primaries, failed to move towards the centre.
The Republicans kind of fucked themselves early on though. Cruz unelectable, Rubio a lightweight, Kasich a non-starter, Bush obliterated by Trump.
The Republicans kind of fucked themselves early on though. Cruz unelectable, Rubio a lightweight, Kasich a non-starter, Bush obliterated by Trump.
BoosterDuck
Banned
well Rubioto isn't here to remind us of him so no
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
i dont think there's much by way of legitimate criticism about clinton that trump can muster that outweighs what he's said and done this election cycle. don't throw rocks from a glass house
it'll be a big win, but not as much as i'd prefer. this is probably the beginning of another ugly chapter of politics in this country, and i thought it was already bad. trump and his voters arent going away
it'll be a big win, but not as much as i'd prefer. this is probably the beginning of another ugly chapter of politics in this country, and i thought it was already bad. trump and his voters arent going away
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I'm fuckin' right.
Rajack
Member
https://www.yahoo.com/news/hillary-clinton-invokes-unlikely-allies-000000292.html She won't be winning anything if she keeps making comments like this.
Read the article. Those sort of comments are exactly why she way win big - by persuading moderate republics, especially suburban women, to cross over. We are right to praise Bush for going to an Islamic centre and calling for tolerance 6 days after 9/11 - that's what the president should do! The fact the party has now strayed so far from that just highlights how insane they have become.
Also, to the person thinking that voter apathy will result in low turn out for both sides - Hillary won the democratic nomination by millions of votes (more than anyone on either side), and had one of the highest vote totals in the primary process of anyone, despite it being a non-competitive primary. Her favourables with democrats are exceedingly high. Just because the echo chamber of the Internet doesn't reflect her support doesn't mean it doesn't exist - California and New York are testament to that. Democrats are excited by Hillary Clinton and want to vote for her.
teruterubozu
Member
We haven't even got past the Republican National Convention yet. Hillary might run against nobody.
You are correct, but there's a real possibility people will treat trump as a threat and vote against him even if he's guaranteed to lose in a landslide because people will try to make sure they played a role in defeating trump and making sure he has little chance of doing to well.We know that in some states latinos are registering in huge numbers to vote agsinst trump right now I wouldn't really worry about voter turnout because there is a good chance it will be up compared to some of the recent US elections, but i don't think we will see voter turnout be like 7%+ higher than the last presidential election. Were voter turnout will end up I have no clue. The only thing that could really hurt voter turnout is if not many republican or republican leaning voters show up at the polls and voter turnout in other groups is not high enough to prevent an overall decrease in voter turnout.
Nah. They will appoint someone to run just like in some senate races in the past like the Illnois senate race in 04.
This article talks about why it could be a landslide
https://newrepublic.com/article/134366/donald-trump-will-buried-electoral-avalanche
https://newrepublic.com/article/134366/donald-trump-will-buried-electoral-avalanche
Ronald Reagan was a god to (white) America. Still is to Republicans.
Hillary isn't going to split Nebraska unless she takes like 95% of the vote, the state GOP gerrymandered us and split the Dem base in half.
Southern Strategy plus demographics.
Bel Marduk
Banned
The map will look exactly like 2012's with the possibility of Arizona turning blue due to increased Hispanic turnout.
No way North Carolina or Georgia will. Trump's bigotry helps him in the South.
No way North Carolina or Georgia will. Trump's bigotry helps him in the South.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
I'm still a little terrified that The Democrats will screw this up...
ElectricBlanketFire
Member
I'm not taking anything for granted.
entremet
Member
Much of Reagan's issues were not as scrutized back then. They didn't materlalize until later in the public discourse.
He public persona was carefully crafted and he also hid behind the veil of being a strong Cold War President, which ended in his watch.
I remember all the fearmongering as a kid about nukes and the Soviets. Reagan and his handlers capitalized on that.
Democrats actually controlled both Houses at the time and did much better in State houses and governorships back then.
Not even the DNC is that inept.
They don't even have to do anything. He's sinking himself.
TheLaughingStock
Member
How would it be a close GE race vs. Hillary for all the other candidates besides Ben Carson that Trump beat handily?
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