I said the May government could effectively call a vote of no confidence in itself to trigger an early GE, since she has the numbers to do it. Phi said that since the FTPA has provision that once a vote of no confidence is passed an early GE can be prevented if there is a second motion restoring confidence within the next two weeks, they would have to keep an eye on the chamber in case Labour snuck in and passed a motion of confidence in that time.
It seems bizarre to me that the opposition would do that, even if they were extremely unprepared for a GE since it would look like they were endorsing the govt.
I don't think it would be anywhere near as bad as it looks at first sight.
Remember, to even get to this stage, we'd need to have had the Tories voting for a no-confidence motion
against themselves. And it is certainly within the remit of HM Opposition to oppose whatever it is that the government wants. That's the way I would spin it anyway.
Ah sorry, I thought you meant the idea of a sneak-vote was bizarre.
That's what I thought Quiche meant too.
For the other thing, you'd probably have to go back to Ramsay MacDonald to get anything even close.
Travis: How is lowering taxes "nebulous"? It means people have more money in their pocket to pay bills or go on holiday or spend in shops or whatever it is they want to spend their money on. Generally it's much easier to point to the beneficiary's of public spending because the money gets taken from the many and given to the few. It's harder to demonstrate that the opposite - not taking it from people and then not spending it - has beneficiaries, because some people don't seem to consider people keeping more of the money they earned to be a benefit, for some reason. The examples of Tory policies that do directly help people are almost all examples of big-state activity - Help to Buy, forcing small businesses to have pension schemes that they pay into, 0.7% of GNI going to foreign aid etc. But unless your position is "the more the government does, the better" ad infinitum then clearly there's some benefit to people keeping more of their own money. This remains true even if you think it's not worth the sacrifices re: public spending.
I'm very sympathetic to this line of thinking, but I think it has limits.
In principle, and over the long term, then it is a sensible aim. But only so long as it tends towards a "trickle-up" rather than a "trickle-down" approach. That is, it needs to be targetted at the poorer in society rather than the richer, it needs to be sufficient to translate into disposable income rather than to vanish into rounding errors, and it needs to
not be a substitute for risk-based social welfare (consider the difference between insurance-based and state-provided healthcare for example).
Where it falls down is in the "more of
your own money" bit. Because really, the going rate for the job is whatever you get paid after tax. It really wasn't
your own money to start with in any meaningful sense. It is this sort of argument that has (at least I think it has, I've never seen anyone else argue this!) led more-or-less directly to the big inequalities in society that have grown over the last 50 years or so - what happened was the government put in punitive taxation on high earners (83% marginal on earned income), companies increased the gross pay to compensate and then when taxes came down again the employees kept the money despite having never actually earned the increment. And that entirely artificial differential carried on over the decades.
There's a perpetual problem with this because with a progressive income tax system, any reduction aimed at the poorer gets taken up in full by the richer as well, and the headline is "tax cuts for millionaires". I'd be entirely in favour of changes to the tax system that sharply reduce income tax for low earners while limiting the benefit to high earners, perhaps by requiring companies to claim back all or part of the benefit above some threshold. It would be complicated in the short term, but lead to better long term outcomes.