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Media Create Sales: Week 48, 2016 (Nov 28 - Dec 04)

Maxinas

Member
you can say the same things for FF, but it has been just a "FF is dead" in the previous pages
so west counts for Pokemon and west doesn't count for FF ?


SM is declining from XY which was declining from BW

XY was the first main entry in the series which was not able to reach the 5mln milestone, and SM is already 400k below those numbers


this is the fact.


[NDS] Pokémon Black / White - 2.637.285 / NEW
[NDS] Pokémon Black / White - 772.172 / 3.409.457 (-71%)


[3DS] Pokémon X / Y - 2.096.050 / NEW
[3DS] Pokémon X / Y - 591.025 / 2.687.075 (-72%)


01./00. [3DS] Pokemon Sun / Moon # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2016.11.18} (¥4.980) - 1.905.107 / NEW <80-100%>
01./01. [3DS] Pokemon Sun / Moon # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2016.11.18} (¥4.980) - 422.346 / 2.327.453 <80-100%> (-78%)


Look at the difference in sales between X/Y and S/M compared to the decline in sales between B/W and X/Y after the second week. The decline isn't anything compared to what Final Fantasy is going through.
 

hiska-kun

Member
week 1
01./00. [3DS] Pokemon X / Y # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2013.10.12} (¥4.800) - 2.096.050 / NEW <80-100%>
01./00. [3DS] Pokemon Sun / Moon # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2016.11.18} (¥4.980) - 1.905.107 / NEW <80-100%>
weekly difference : -190,943
Total difference : -190,943



week 2
01./01. [3DS] Pokemon X / Y # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2013.10.12} (¥4.800) - 591.025 / 2.687.075 <80-100%> (-72%)
01./01. [3DS] Pokemon Sun / Moon # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2016.11.18} (¥4.980) - 422.346 / 2.327.453 <80-100%> (-78%)
weekly difference : -168,679
total difference : -359,622



week 3
01./01. [3DS] Pokemon X / Y # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2013.10.12} (¥4.800) - 265.984 / 2.953.059 <80-100%> (-55%)
02./01. [3DS] Pokemon Sun / Moon # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2016.11.18} (¥4.980) - 225.697 / 2.553.150 <80-100%> (-47%)
weekly difference : -40,287
total difference : -399,909



-400k in just 3 weeks, wow, at this rate the difference would be around 10%

I wonder if at least nintendo is paying attention to those numbers...

Since Nintendo uses Media Create I doubt they're paying attention.

Now we know why. lol
 
[NDS] Pokémon Black / White - 772.172 / 3.409.457 (-71%)

[3DS] Pokémon X / Y - 591.025 / 2.687.075 (-72%)

01./01. [3DS] Pokemon Sun / Moon # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2016.11.18} (¥4.980) - 422.346 / 2.327.453 <80-100%> (-78%)


Look at the difference in sales between X/Y and S/M compared to the decline in sales between B/W and X/Y after the second week. The decline isn't anything compared to what Final Fantasy is going through.


sorry but from those data I can only see how big is the decline from BW to SM, which is more than one million units

but at least I recognise that DS sales won't be replicable, that's the reason I used XY and SM for comparison: same platform, around same time
if you compare DS and 3DS sales probably the only game which is holding is Animal Crossing
but comparing DS with 3DS would be an easy trolling such as comparing Wii with WiiU or PSP with PSV

the fact is : even Pokemon is suffering a declining in sales, actually the only big franchises which are in a good state are the already mentioned AC and DQ (even MH had a drop from the PSP times)
 

Square2015

Member
That list actually includes bundled copies




Could you rehost? Graph isn't showing up on imgur
Yeah sorry about that.

Updated with the new m-c figure:

PS HW LTD when first FF released. Launches aligned
Dotted line = PS3 vs. PS4 weekly.
AgDeWFu.png

PS1 = gray line
PS2 = deep blue line
PS3 = black line
PS4 = aquamarine line

LTD when FF released and FW attach ratios:
PS1 5.0m - 40% !
PS2 5.3m - 33%
PS3 4.3m - 36%
PS4 3.7m - 19%
 

saichi

Member
Ps4pro, stronger first 9 months, another price-cut and some pretty strong titles get released. Why shouldn't it?

How would PS4 have stronger first 9 months in Japan in 2017 and what strong titles will be released? Also, December is usually the biggest month for Japan and it is likely to be a decline in 2017.

- 7 of them have already been released on PS4 most as multiplatform though, but as the latest PS3/PS4 multiplat titles have shown the transition is basically over, we should not see any worthwhile PS3/PS4 games anymore in 2017
- From the 3 left 1 is basically dead (Minna no golf), 1 will have its latest entry released in one month and will severely underperform compared to its predecessor (Resident Evil) and the latter will be released sometimes next year and will be nowhere near its highest point on PS3 (Gran Turismo)

And let's not mention that all the big IP from western publishers that the PS3 didn't have this early in its life cycle (
and Persona 5 lol
)

Asides from an hypothetical Final Fantasy XVI the biggest exclusive title we'll see on PS4 in the future might very well be GTA VI, that's just the state of the market for solo focused games on home consoles today in Japan, and multiplayer home console games are something the Playstation environment has failed to produce for quite some time now.

PS4 is just definitively on track to perform similarly as PS3 with slightly lower numbers on a yearly basis.

You are forgetting the 3 biggest titles that's missing from the list - DQ11, KH3 and FF7r! they will sell millions on PS4!
/s
 
sorry but from those data I can only see how big is the decline from BW to SM, which is more than one million units

but at least I recognise that DS sales won't be replicable, that's the reason I used XY and SM for comparison: same platform, around same time
if you compare DS and 3DS sales probably the only game which is holding is Animal Crossing
but comparing DS with 3DS would be an easy trolling such as comparing Wii with WiiU or PSP with PSV

the fact is : even Pokemon is suffering a declining in sales, actually the only big franchises which are in a good state are the already mentioned AC and DQ (even MH had a drop from the PSP times)


Nintendo uses media create. When you compare S&M to X/Y, you can see there isn't a decline.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Upon seeing those Kamen Rider numbers I thought "that seems like a good result, on par with what the last multi-plat entry sold on Vita alone (which I thought was pretty good), but Famitsu has sellthrough at 20-40%... so that's a lot of copies to get through in the holidays.

Appmon though... I mean, wow. It's sold like 10% of Cyber Sleuth. Sellthrough on Famitsu is 0-20% so we've got another Gaist Crusher on our hands possibly where it'll never sell through the first shipment? Crazy. Don't know what they were thinking with this game after seeing other mixed media franchises that aren't named Youkai Watch bomb.

Also Artdink don't seem to be having any successes lately lol. Macross bombed; Neo Atlas didn't do great; A-Train has a pretty low sellthrough and I'm willing to bet Accel World vs. SAO will do quite poorly.

But hey, Super Mario Maker did well at least. And new colours bumped Vita hardware some?

At this time of the year, some games are overshipped on purpose because good sales during the holiday season are expected.

While I agree that Digimom is a mega-bomba and probably won't sell the shipment without slash prices; Kamen Rider and A-Train should be safe and sell through the copies without major problems.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Nintendo uses media create. When you compare S&M to X/Y, you can see there isn't a decline.

Sure... but according to Media Create, X/Y sold an LTD of something close to this: 15./13. [3DS] Pokemon X / Y # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2013.10.12} (¥4.800) - 4.255 / 4.132.144 (-30%) (last time I saw it chart), which is 300K behind what Famitsu had. I agree it's no comparison to FFXV though (which just dropped 50% compared to its last entry and Pokemon is about legs, FF is about 1st week sales primarily).
 

JeffZero

Purple Drazi
Wow. I've been so caught-up in the Final Fantasy discussion, I missed Digimon's numbers. What's the deal there?
 
They made a game targeted at kids when the actual fanbase is made up of older people.

Didn't help it was something barely resembling Digimon at all IMO.

Re:digitize Decode did A LOT better. While its LTD was like 75k IIRC, that's still far higher than this likely ever will be bar a shocking boost in sales due to a tie-in.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
These X/Y and S/M comparisons that determine Pokemon LTD just 3 weeks after launch as if its FF have become funny. I guess next weeks they will tell S/M will go over 5m or 6m since it will be so over X/Y launch aligned

This 4th week at Famitsu

X/Y - 137.720
OR/AS - 151.011

and Media Create

X/Y - 162.347
OR/AS - 152.384

It needs at least 2 months of sales that will show where it will end.

As for LTD for X/Y

Famitsu 4,5-4,6m
Media Create 4,2-4,3m
Dengeki 4,2-4,3m

edit: The none game didn't sell over 5m on 3DS is New Leaf. It crossed the 5m mark even before the amiibo update.
 

Takao

Banned
Didn't help it was something barely resembling Digimon at all IMO.

Re:digitize Decode did A LOT better. While its LTD was like 75k IIRC, that's still far higher than this likely ever will be bar a shocking boost in sales due to a tie-in.

Appmon is effectively a reboot of the Digimon lore meant for a time when kids have smartphones, not desktops. None of the pre-existing Digimon have appeared in it AFAIK. The sub-brand itself takes a lot from Yo-Kai Watch in terms of the way it's presented (though, tonally it's more serious), but the game is allegedly very similar in mechanics to the Digimon Story releases.

The retail 3DS title was pretty much the final distinct component of the Appmon franchise left to launch. The toys, the TCG, the anime and the two manga series all came out months ago. I only see that LTD crawling higher because Digimon anime always runs for at least a full year, and based on that sell through, retailers are going to have a tonne of copies on deep discount.
 
These X/Y and S/M comparisons that determine Pokemon LTD just 3 weeks after launch as if its FF have become funny. I guess next weeks they will tell S/M will go over 5m or 6m since it will be so over X/Y launch aligned

This 4th week at Famitsu

X/Y - 137.720
OR/AS - 151.011

and Media Create

X/Y - 162.347
OR/AS - 152.384

It needs at least 2 months of sales that will show where it will end.

As for LTD for X/Y

Famitsu 4,5-4,6m
Media Create 4,2-4,3m
Dengeki 4,2-4,3m


have we got YSO prediction for next week?


sorry for asking dk where to find that.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Sure... but according to Media Create, X/Y sold an LTD of something close to this: 15./13. [3DS] Pokemon X / Y # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2013.10.12} (¥4.800) - 4.255 / 4.132.144 (-30%) (last time I saw it chart), which is 300K behind what Famitsu had. I agree it's no comparison to FFXV though (which just dropped 50% compared to its last entry and Pokemon is about legs, FF is about 1st week sales primarily).

Famitsu numbers for XY are WRONG for sure. I've just checked Nintendo shipments, and Famitsu sales are over Nintendo's shipment. lol

Nintendo Shipment
Pokemon XY (until march 2014) - 4.37M
Pokemon XY (additional shipment until December 2014) - 90k / 4.46M

Famitsu Sales Top 100 2014 (until December 28th)

11. [3DS] Pokemon X / Y # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2013.10.12} (¥4.800) - 477.496 / 4.454.325

At first you might think numbers are correct because it leaves 6k units. But that's without Digital Sales, and Nintendo numbers are shipped+digital, not sold.
Digital Famitsu estimates:

[3DS] Pokemon X / Y <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2013.10.12} – 79.657

Digital Sales are not complete, only tracked the months that XY charted on the Top 30.
So, total minimum sales for Famitsu at the end of 2014 are:

[3DS] Pokemon X / Y # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2013.10.12} (¥4.800) - 4.533.982

And Nintendo shipped 4.46M. Wow sold more than shipped.

#Superior tracker
 

Fisico

Member
You are forgetting the 3 biggest titles that's missing from the list - DQ11, KH3 and FF7r! they will sell millions on PS4!
/s

Yeah kinda, Both DQ Heroes games covered most of the fanbase that would buy the console entry of DQXI though, and there should be a big overlap between FFXV and FFVII-R buyers.

KH is a bit of an unknown, it's probably not something that will reach 500k anymore and I don't know how similar are the audiences for this game and the others RPG on the platform (probably very similar again)
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
The top 3 WiiU games combined barely pass NSMB Wii sales

MHP3 alone > Vita top10

DS had 5 titles >5mln; 3DS has none


the market has changed since 2008, for both nintendo and sony

PS4 is selling like or even better than PS3 while PSP/DS were both way more succesful than their follow ups so that comparison doesnt make much sense.

FF XV is just under performing, we also know why, stop blaming the "market" for everything.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
If Media Create has first week sellthrough < 70% with 60% for first 3 days, price collapse will come very soon.

I don't get how retailers were fooled this time.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
As for Famitsu and their continued "Famitsus".

When I started making my database a few years ago and was adding everything I could find bttb had sent me a link with a weekly report. I deleted the link when I added the numbers and didn't give it much base back then since I was still playing with numbers at the time but at that link there was the methodology of how they do the estimates (at least what they were doing 10-15 years ago).

3 different employees gave 3 different sets of numbers.

2 had similar numbers and 1 was from a little to a lot off from the others.

I don't know if they all had the sample for entire Japan, or it was divided somehow at 3 parts but the 3 sets of numbers were equally added and divided by 3.

Even if only 1 set of numbers is off it takes the numbers off. Since then things of course are improved but it gives a picture of what was or is still happening.
 
We are in early December there should be bit better legs for FF XV due to that - lifetime sales should easily pass 1 milion in Japan which is probably better than worst case scenarios after FF XIII disaster last generation.
 

Celine

Member
We are in early December there should be bit better legs for FF XV due to that - lifetime sales should easily pass 1 milion in Japan which is probably better than worst case scenarios after FF XIII disaster last generation.
Easily? With an opening of 695K?
FF is a front loaded franchise.

FFXV might pass 1 million units sold but only on the behalf of a big first shipment and slashed prices.
 

Bladenic

Member
So FFXV was wildly overshipped/SE overestimated demand. Wonder if that's exactly how it'll play out WW with the rest of the 5M shipped copies.
 
I feel Mario Maker 3DS should do fine even if it's only at 50% ST, considering it's the only major Mario release for the holiday season aside from Super Mario Run IIRC. It's meant to be an evergreen title.
 

ianpm31

Member
There's a lot of negativity surrounding Pro, because well, there's nothing really Pro about it.

Scorpio will do fine if it delivers on its promises.

Good luck selling a console that has very limited worldwide appeal at a high price. And the pro is exactly what it's suppose to be it's not a new gen.
 
So FFXV was wildly overshipped/SE overestimated demand. Wonder if that's exactly how it'll play out WW with the rest of the 5M shipped copies.

XV is coming off XIII (which had overwhelmingly negative reception), so it was expected that initial sales wouldn't be too hot.

XV has been very well received by both critics and fans, so I imagine it will have better legs compared to the series norm (or at least XIII).
 

horuhe

Member
So, try to guess what's the game that is being discounted this week...

Yeah, FFXV! The Regular Edition is at 5980yen and the Deluxe Edition is at 9980yen. There are also quite a bit amount of second hand copies, so this time will be very difficult to sell all the units shipped to retailers. The online retailer Rakuten also has the game at 20% of discount.
 

Lexxism

Member
So, try to guess what's the game that is being discounted this week...

Yeah, FFXV! The Regular Edition is at 5980yen and the Deluxe Edition is at 9980yen. There are also quite a bit amount of second hand copies, so this time will be very difficult to sell all the units shipped to retailers. The online retailer Rakuten also has the game at 20% of discount.
Hmm. 90% down next week?
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
So, try to guess what's the game that is being discounted this week...

Yeah, FFXV! The Regular Edition is at 5980yen and the Deluxe Edition is at 9980yen. There are also quite a bit amount of second hand copies, so this time will be very difficult to sell all the units shipped to retailers. The online retailer Rakuten also has the game at 20% of discount.


What? ! Already? !
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
So, try to guess what's the game that is being discounted this week...

Yeah, FFXV! The Regular Edition is at 5980yen and the Deluxe Edition is at 9980yen. There are also quite a bit amount of second hand copies, so this time will be very difficult to sell all the units shipped to retailers. The online retailer Rakuten also has the game at 20% of discount.

Last December's 3 winners at overshipped bombs at retail were

1. Mobile Suit Gundam Extreme Vs-Force
2. Animal Crossing: amiibo Festival
3. Pokemon Rumble World

We have found who gets the gold medal this year.
 

MacTag

Banned
There's a lot of negativity surrounding Pro, because well, there's nothing really Pro about it.

Scorpio will do fine if it delivers on its promises.
I think part of the issue with the Pro is that outside an arguably smaller visual upgrade it doesn't really offer any functional improvements. If you look at similar mid-cycle handheld upgrades like GBC, DSi or n3DS they all gave you additional improvements to the platform beyond just a spec bump, and in some cases improvements that impacted your old games universally (new color palettes, Super Stable 3D, etc).

Either Pro needed a larger spec bump (almost to the point of being new gen) or it needed some additional functional improvements beyond what PS3/Slim already deliver. UHD Bluray could've been an easy one but it still would've needed more.
 

random25

Member
So, try to guess what's the game that is being discounted this week...

Yeah, FFXV! The Regular Edition is at 5980yen and the Deluxe Edition is at 9980yen. There are also quite a bit amount of second hand copies, so this time will be very difficult to sell all the units shipped to retailers. The online retailer Rakuten also has the game at 20% of discount.

Oh man. Too early to run out of gas.
 
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