Support NeoGAF

[thestopsign]

It also depends though on stock levels and yeah nintendo will push a lot of extra stock for Splatoon 2's release but the system is still being sold by bloody raffles in many shops theres every chance they may be still selling everything they ship for the next couple of months so there probably wont be many (if any) already on the shelves to be bought

For Nintendo to stock up 700k to sell through in one month in one region, they would have to severely limit stock in the months leading up to that month and that isn't going to happen.

Also I think the largest individual week outside of the year end holidays and system launches was the DS the week New Super Mario Bros. came out in 2006.

May 22-28th, 2006:

1. (DS, Nintendo) New Super Mario Bros. - 899,518
2. (DS, Nintendo) More Brain Age - 86,451 / 2,367,429
3. (DS, Nintendo) Brain Age - 62,616 / 2,282,759
4. (PSP, Square Enix) Dragon Quest & Final Fantasy in Itadaki Street Portable - 48,342
5. (DS, Nintendo) Tetris DS - 46,809 / 545,666
6. (PS2, Enterbrain) Kimikiss - 42,127
7. (PS2, Konami) World Soccer Winning Eleven 10 - 38,419 / 694,927
8. (DS, Nintendo) English Training DS - 37,222 / 1,092,496
9. (DS, Nintendo) Oideyo Doubutsu no Mori - 36,610 / 2,746,097
10. (PS2, Konami) Jikkyou Powerful Pro Major League - 32,742 / 155,557

DSL 285,025
PSP 27,227
PS2 19,798
GBASP 6,652
DS 4,126
GBM 2,013
Xbox360 1,242
GC 1,116
GBA 44
Xbox 8

The 2nd highest I can find is the DS in Golden Week 2007:

01./01. [NDS] Final Fantasy XII: Revenant Wings (Square-Enix) - 109,326 / 383,330
02./03. [WII] Super Paper Mario (Nintendo) - 90,151 / 310,182
03./04. [WII] Wii Sports (Nintendo) - 84,782 / 1,543,596
04./12. [NDS] Yoshi's Island DS (Nintendo) - 58,948 / 791,132
05./06. [WII] Wii Play (Nintendo) - 58,718 / 1,279,131
06./08. [NDS] Mario vs. Donkey Kong 2: March of the Minis (Nintendo) - 57,741 / 233,477
07./05. [WII] Big Brain Academy: Wii Degree (Nintendo) - 55,165 / 97,424
08./14. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) - 51,681 / 4,419,592
09./02. [NDS] Momotarou Dentetsu DS: Tokyo & Japan (Hudson) - 45,662 / 124,642
10./13. [NDS] More Brain Age (Nintendo) - 44,047 / 4,238,185

Hardware - This Week | Last Week | YTD | LTD
1. NDS - 285,192 | 256,063 | 2,888,392 | 16,894,071
2. WII - 101,320 | 102,522 | 1,452,172 | 2,371,815
3. PSP - 35,172 | 33,860 | 839,395 | 5,371,524
4. PS2 - 14,815 | 12,584 | 324,604 | 20,479,463
5. PS3 - 12,974 | 12,791 | 417,056 | 874,614
6. 360 - 3,205 | 3,162 | 93,550 | 358,252
7. GBA - 653 | 1,125 | 35,307 | 15,333,386
8. NGC - 394 | 167 | 6,763 | 4,176,231

 

[ZSaberLink]

With the new stuff plus what we already knew, this is what I'm getting for the 3DS and Switch... and yes July is going to be nuts. I guess for the 3DS that's to make up for the lack of titles in Japan so far this year

3DS
4/20 - Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia
4/20 - Pro Yakyuu
4/27 - Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X
5/11 - Attack on Titan
6/22 - Alliance Alive
6/29 - Radiant Historia: Perfect Chronology
7/13 - Hey Pikmin
7/13 - Ever Oasis
7/13 - Snack World (Treasurers?)
7/20 - Lady Layton
7/29 - Dragon Quest XI
8/3 - Great Ace Attorney 2
8/31 - Etrian Mystery Dungeon 2
2017 - SMT: Deep Strange Journey
Winter 2017 - Kirby action game

Switch
4/20 - Spelunker
4/28 - Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
5/12 - Minecraft Switch Edition (digital)
5/26 - Ultra Street Fighter 2: The Final Challengers
6/1 - Seiken Dentetsu Collection
6/16 - ARMS
7/20 - Fate / Extella Umbra Star
7/21 - Splatoon 2
Fall 2017 - Dragon Quest X
Fall 2017 - Monopoly
2017 - Yoru no Nai Kuni 2
2017 - Sonic Forces
2017 - Sonic Mania (DL)
Winter 2017 - Payday 2
?? - Senran Kagura Refune

 

[Sterok]

Is there a particular reason July is so crowded, or did everyone collectively think this would be a free month safe from the heavy hitters?

 

[Cosmo Clock 21]

Is there a particular reason July is so crowded, or did everyone collectively think this would be a free month safe from the heavy hitters?

Japanese summer vacation starts 7/20

 

[Hero of Legend]

Japanese summer vacation starts 7/20

When's Oban again?

 

[1st Course]

Splatoon 2 will win the marathon only if it becomes the next Monster Hunter.

Splatoon sold 1.5m on the fucking Wii U. Splatoon 2 should be able to do MH numbers (2m+) on a more desirable hardware.

 

[Mory Dunz]

What numbers do you think equates to "bomb"?

Less than 200k LTD

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Switch is gonna have a hard time in May and June. Eek! Hopefully it can stay in the 30k mark.

 

[Eliseo]

Switch is gonna have a hard time in May and June. Eek! Hopefully it can stay in the 30k mark.

Unless ARMS bomb (I doubt it) june seems fine.

 

[Cosmo Clock 21]

Seems like Nintendo is gonna treat Minecraft as the major Switch title in May? Mario Kart at the end of of April will probably carry over as well.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

Switch is gonna have a hard time in May and June. Eek! Hopefully it can stay in the 30k mark.

It has two long-tail games in Mario Kart and Minecraft, a new IP that might do well and some other stuff as well. It'll do fine.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Switch is gonna have a hard time in May and June. Eek! Hopefully it can stay in the 30k mark.

Given how the Switch has done fine with its small set of launch titles it'll do totally fine in May. Actually May is when we'd expect any sort of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe boost, and that's when it also gets Minecraft (RIP Vita), and SF2 (lol).

 

[Branduil]

Switch is gonna have a hard time in May and June. Eek! Hopefully it can stay in the 30k mark.

Minecraft is coming out in May.

 

[zeromcd73]

My Nintendo Store opened orders again for Switch seven minutes ago. Unfortunately the site has now been destroyed by Switchzilla and cannot be accessed.

 

[random25]

Switch is gonna have a hard time in May and June. Eek! Hopefully it can stay in the 30k mark.

With Mario Kart 8 Deluxe at the tail end of April, May will be fine. That and Minecraft will keep it afloat up until Splatoon 2 launches, assuming Arms and other games won't stick well.

 

[CircusOfClouds]

It's amazing that 600k switches have been sold YTD but only 350k copies of Zelda.

 

[Vena]

My Nintendo Store opened orders again for Switch seven minutes ago. Unfortunately the site has now been destroyed by Switchzilla and cannot be accessed.

Rawr.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Wait... so if I'm not mistaken, Omega Force has worked on all these games that have released or will be releasing this year...:

Dragon Quest Heroes 1 & 2 for Switch - port
Fate / Extella Umbral Star - Switch port
Fire Emblem Warriors - new title for new 3DS / Switch
Musou Stars - new title for PS4 / Vita....

How large is Omega Force anyways ?

Also with Minecraft releasing for Switch and potentially more Vita-audience titles getting Switch versions (Fate / Extella and Nights of Azure), are we seeing the final nails in the Vita's coffin?

 

[jj984jj]

I'm sure Omega Force is pretty big but I doubt Marvelous could even afford Koei's development. They're not involved with the Fate games. Also the Nintendo Warriors games are co-developed by Team Ninja so it's not all on Omega Force.

 

[casiopao]

Wait... so if I'm not mistaken, Omega Force has worked on all these games that have released or will be releasing this year...:

Dragon Quest Heroes 1 & 2 for Switch - port
Fate / Extella Umbral Star - Switch port
Fire Emblem Warriors - new title for new 3DS / Switch
Musou Stars - new title for PS4 / Vita....

How large is Omega Force anyways ?

Also with Minecraft releasing for Switch and potentially more Vita-audience titles getting Switch versions (Fate / Extella and Nights of Azure), are we seeing the final nails in the Vita's coffin?

Fate is not by K-T i think.

EDIT: DAMN U jj984jj!!!!!

 

[zeromcd73]

Oh, looks like Level 5 didn't just change Lady Layton's title. Snack World's main character is now a custom avatar that players create themselves. Poor Chapp-kun.

 

[Chris1964]

Splatoon sold 1.5m on the fucking Wii U. Splatoon 2 should be able to do MH numbers (2m+) on a more desirable hardware.

MH is in 3-4m territory and DQXI will likely top 4m. Splatoon 2 has to more than double LTD of Splatoon.

 

[Vinnk]

Less than 200k LTD

I agree, if ARMS sold only 200k it would be disappointing.

That really puts the sales of PS4 games in perspective though. Few ever hit even that low bar.

Comparing apples to oranges I know but still interesting.

 

[Chris1964]

I agree, if ARMS sold only 200k it would be disappointing.

That really puts the sales of PS4 games in perspective though. Few ever hit even that low bar.

Comparing apples to oranges I know but still interesting.

A low number doesn't look better because it's similar to another low number.

Apparently Nintendo wants to push Arms hard.

 

[Vinnk]

A low number doesn't look better because it's similar to another low number.

Apparently Nintendo wants to push Arms hard.

Oh for sure. Only 200k would be a disaster for ARMS.

 

[Mory Dunz]

I guess a good question is what would "acceptable" and what would be "good" for ARMS in japan?


Obv they want it to be multi million seller WW, but Japan seems like a big wild card. I think it can do over 1 million LTD in NA at least.

edit:
my random numbers would be 350-450k acceptable and 550k+ as good.
The only metric I see is Nintnedo JPs youtube channel, in which ARMs videos have done decently since reveal.

Spoiler

wtf at senran kagura having 100k views. More than any other Direct video, including Splatoon.

 

[mao2]

Wait... so if I'm not mistaken, Omega Force has worked on all these games that have released or will be releasing this year...:

Dragon Quest Heroes 1 & 2 for Switch - port
Fate / Extella Umbral Star - Switch port
Fire Emblem Warriors - new title for new 3DS / Switch
Musou Stars - new title for PS4 / Vita....

How large is Omega Force anyways ?

Also with Minecraft releasing for Switch and potentially more Vita-audience titles getting Switch versions (Fate / Extella and Nights of Azure), are we seeing the final nails in the Vita's coffin?

Also Toukiden 2 - Steam port and Dynasty Warriors 9. And as others have pointed out, Fate/Extella is developed my Marvelous, not Omega Force.

 

[SalvaPot]

Seems like Nintendo is gonna treat Minecraft as the major Switch title in May? Mario Kart at the end of of April will probably carry over as well.

Minecraft is huuge, it can easily carry the Switch as the superior portable version of the game.

It's amazing that 600k switches have been sold YTD but only 350k copies of Zelda.

That is a 50%+ attach rate on a region that generally doesn't care about Zelda, its honestly way above GAF predictions I think.

I guess a good question is what would "acceptable" and what would be "good" for ARMS in japan?


Obv they want it to be multi million seller WW, but Japan seems like a big wild card. I think it can do over 1 million LTD in NA at least.

edit:
my random numbers would be 350-450k acceptable and 550k+ as good.
The only metric I see is Nintnedo JPs youtube channel, in which ARMs videos have done decently since reveal.

Spoiler

wtf at senran kagura having 100k views. More than any other Direct video, including Splatoon.

I think ARMS doing 1 2 Switch numbers should be what we can expect to call it a decent sucess, but its clear they are aiming for a Splatoon-like success.

 

[1st Course]

MH is in 3-4m territory and DQXI will likely top 4m. Splatoon 2 has to more than double LTD of Splatoon.

Doable imo.

Beside MH is not as strong as it was. 4U failed to hit 3m. Generation barely did 3m. XX surely won't sell anything close to 3m. 3m could be the celling for the series at this point.

 

[Mory Dunz]

I think ARMS doing 1 2 Switch numbers should be what we can expect to call it a decent sucess, but its clear they are aiming for a Splatoon-like success.

What do you think 1-2 Switch numbers will be?

 

[jonno394]

What do you think 1-2 Switch numbers will be?

If it can stay above 10k between now and Mario Kart it'll have sold around 200k so far, uptake in console sales for mk8 and Splatoon 2 could give it a sizeable boost too as people look for unique switch existence. I'm thinking 300-350k by the end of the year, but maybe I'm overestimating things.

 

[Chris1964]

Doable imo.

Beside MH is not as strong as it was. 4U failed to hit 3m. Generation barely did 3m. XX surely won't sell anything close to 3m. 3m could be the celling for the series at this point.

G rankings are supposed to do main entry numbers now?

Generations did 3,4m and that wasn't even a main entry.

 

[MTC100]

Switch doing fine, I guess Nintendo isn't shipping much more than that...

 

[Vinnk]

Spoiler

wtf at senran kagura having 100k views. More than any other Direct video, including Splatoon.

It's GAF mining for gif material.

 

[SalvaPot]

What do you think 1-2 Switch numbers will be?

I can see it doing 500k total eventually, specially if it gets a "Nintendo Selects" release or bundles down the line. I guess we'll see, but I think both have potential to be evergreen titles, since I don't see them getting sequels this gen.

I still haven't picked up 1 2 Switch for my console but I would down the line when I have to entertain guests, so probably around Xmas.

 

[Branduil]

I think ARMS should do pretty well. It's the only major game in June, and I think a lot of people who start picking up a Switch around then in anticipation of Splatoon will also buy ARMS.

 

[zeromcd73]

Switch sold out on My Nintendo Store the moment it went back online, although Switchzilla is still causing trouble.

Next shipment will be April 21.

 

[Dynheart]

Switch sold out on My Nintendo Store the moment it went back online, although Switchzilla is still causing trouble.

Next shipment will be April 21.

I'm enjoying my switch, but reading stuff like this makes me appreciate it all the more.

What's funny is that I wasn't going to get it, I was going to settle for the Wii U version of Zelda and get the Switch later. So my wife and I agreed that was for the best. My wife, on the eve of the launch, is doing research and and comes up and says: "buy a switch." I went up to Meijer, grabbed the last ticket, and the rest is history. She plays the damn thing more than I do! Heh

EDIT: Case and point, I have 60 hours in BotW while she has 170!

 

[Chris1964]

Oh for sure. Only 200k would be a disaster for ARMS.

If PS4 was the barrier of success for Switch we would say goodbye to Japan from this year.

 

[Jacobson]

So, how big is Minecraft on Switch? Will it sell like crazy even though lots of people already bought it for other versions (or vita, if you only want portable)?

 

[jonno394]

So, how big is Minecraft on Switch? Will it sell like crazy even though lots of people already bought it for other versions (or vita, if you only want portable)?

Is Minecraft getting a physical release in may or just download only?

 

[casiopao]

I think Arms can actually do well if Nintendo can keep adding character and gimmick there.

With all the marketing push and being position as Switch big title on that month, we probably can see minimum 500k number that month.

 

[SalvaPot]

So, how big is Minecraft on Switch? Will it sell like crazy even though lots of people already bought it for other versions (or vita, if you only want portable)?

Its still selling on Wii U and its not available on 3DS, it should grab the Nintendo crowd who doesn't have a Wii U, and parents might get it for their kids if they were not convinced by the Vita version.

Is Minecraft getting a physical release in may or just download only?

Download only, physical "later" with no date. Seems to me they wanted it out ASAP to cover the month.

This makes me wonder if they could ever release Minecraft amiibo, I can see them doing great.

 

[Celine]

If PS4 was the barrier of success for Switch we would say goodbye to Japan from this year.

Yeah, I've seen a few saying that just by doing better than WiiU or GC or Vita or PS4 (in Japan) would have be enough for Switch to be declared a success which is puzzling considering that neither of those consoles performed particularly well.
I suppose all these years of flagging sales in the japanese market (except 3DS) have skewed general perception on the low side.
Also I suppose not everyone know that we are out of 5 consecutive years of HW YTD decline in Japan which is a very worrisome signal.
Japanese dedicated videogame industry desperately need a strong console.

 

[Aostia]

• Kart8 in late April
• Minecraft in May
• ARMS in June
• Splatoon 2 in July

If those games will confirm their sales potential I think that the Switch release schedule of software has been properly planned by Nintendo this time around, unlike the Wii U, at least for Japan.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Minecraft being early on in the system's life bodes well.

Look at all this mid-tier games being announced.

Where's Oregano? Still banned?

what mid tier games? You talking about Indies?

 

[sphinx]

random thought but, I firmly believe the separate dock thing is one step further into the Switch's coming out as a handheld.

standalone switch tablet for $199.99 and its equivalent everywhere else is coming, question is when, Japan will absolutely devour that.

 

[Mr Swine]

I wonder if Switch sales will remain high now with these announcements of Arms, Splatoon 2 and Minecraft release dates for most of the year. I can see Minecraft sell bonkers during Xmas (hopefully)

random thought but, I firmly believe the separate dock thing is one step further into the Switch's coming out as a handheld.

standalone switch tablet for $199.99 and its equivalent everywhere else is coming, question is when, Japan will absolutely devour that.

But it's already a handheld

 

[LordKano]

'the fuck is wrong with July. The Snack World, Pikmin and Ever Oasis are releasing the same day, followed by Lady Layton and Splatoon 2 the next week, and then there's Dragon Quest XI the week after. Half of that is gonna bomb.

 

[casiopao]

what mid tier games? You talking about Indies?

Sonic
DQ10
Rayman
Fate/Extella
Payday
NIght of Azure is now indies?O_O