Feel sorry for Phil, its hard to see a path where xbox catches up to PS4. Its easy to say make good games or hire good devs and give them the right amount of time and they will make a good game, but consider Horizon Zero Dawn and Mass Effect Andromeda.
HZD was made by the people who have done Killzone, and the last KZ was not received that well. A SP only game that will take place in a post apoc world featuring a female PC? MMmm, I dunno, sounds pretty dicey.
ME:A on the other hand, a sequel to a beloved series and the 4th game should be a slam dunk hit. Sure, ME:3 had some issues but they are easy to identify and not repeat. Bioware can use the Frostbite engine, so should be no tech problems at all given Battlefront, Dragon Age, Battlefield 1, etc.
Most people would have bet on ME:A being the great game and selling very well. Whoops.
End of the day, sure, your odds of success are up a lot if you hire really good people (this was probably the KEY differentiation between MEA and HZD), give them the time to finish the game to their standards, and not interfere too much but its still very much a biz where you really won't know if something works or not for years and if it doesn't work, throwing it all away is a tough call. Its frankly amazing Sony has had so many great successes with its first parties and now on top of that the multiplats that are really fantastic are favoring Sony, making it even harder for xbox to ever catch up.