PhoncipleBone
Banned
What in the flying fuck at the Stranger Tides budget
-
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Wkd BO 0519-2117 - Express elevator hauls Alien to top, passing everything
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
hodayathink
Member
Building boats is expensive.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Building boats and filming on water ain't cheap. Just ask Kevin Costner.
This is second hand info, but I've heard from a few people who would know, that Pirates 3 also cost much more than the $300M that was reported.
This is second hand info, but I've heard from a few people who would know, that Pirates 3 also cost much more than the $300M that was reported.
They filmed 2 and 3 together, so who knows what sort of shenanigans went on with the reported budgets. Usually films that are shot back to back have their total budget divvied up, but I suspect that the Pirates sequels were so over budget that Disney couldn't claim that they both cost $225M.
There are similar rumors about the Hobbit trilogy films costing way more than the reported $675M combined total as well.
You think Pirates 5 is going to do $124MM less than even the first movie did in 2003, and $433MM less than the lowest of the sequels (all of the older numbers are unadjusted)? That's a bold strategy, Cotton.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Its another Memorial Day weekend, and Hollywood will again try to capitalize on what was once the industrys starting date for the summer. Recent years in particular have had tepid results for the date, with a string of disappointments and more misses than hits. The two releases this week could go either way.
First up, with a relatively unique Thursday release, is Baywatch. Based on the massive international hit TV show, Paramount is looking for a sizeable win here that will try to tap into a box office trifecta: 90s nostalgia, star power, and a 21 Jump Street-esque tone. With plenty of T & A and freakishly chiseled abs, the film is certainly hewing to its source material in that regard. The film features a multicultural cast and the marketing has put Dwayne Johnson front and center. The Rock has been described as franchise Viagra and (for the most part) lived up to that moniker, with 2015s San Andreas being the strongest indicator that he is indeed a draw. Zac Efrons character is also clearly closer to his turn in Neighbors, whose first installment grossed $150M, than in his other comedies. Lastly, with a hard R rating and the promise of over-the-top action, the film is following in the footsteps of Lord and Millers 21 Jump Street reboot films, which have grossed $138M and $192M domestically.
So the ingredients are all there for a massive breakout. And the online numbers from Youtube and Twitter has been strong. But is this buzz all positive? The Baywatch series has considerable name recognition, but unlike 21 Jump Street, the TV show is nowadays more likely to elicit jokes than real nostalgia. And for those who are excited for a reboot, the material here is probably not what they want. The trailers have relied heavily on gross-out humor and dick jokes, and the concept of turning the Baywatch lifeguards into drug cartel busting heroes is decidedly more absurd than the Jump Street films. Similar to Pixels, two potentially winning formulae (videogame space invaders and Adam Sandler in a frat pack action comedy) may end up alienating both audiences. Its also worth noting that this years CHiPs tried also to revive an old TV show into an R-rated action flick and failed spectacularly, grossing only $25M worldwide. Baywatch can at least be safe knowing it will look favorably compared to that.
Making matters worse is that critics have panned the movie; as of this writing, Baywatch has a terrible 16% on Rotten Tomatoes and 37 on Metacritic. While some R-rated comedies have succeeded without a critical stamp of approval, in general, breakouts within the genre have had at least positive reviews. Also worrisome is the film has yet to appear on Movie Tickets top 5 trending, despite the relative weakness of the current crop of films outside the top two.
Is Baywatch gearing up for bomb status, then? Well, not quite. Dwayne Johnson is almost certainly a positive for this film, and if this breaks out beyond expectations he will (unfairly or not) be pointed to as the reason why. The negative signs are enough to prevent a break-out and, in my opinion, from matching the most recent tracking. But I do believe The Rock will help keep this film from sinking, at least on opening weekend.
Getting into specifics, the Thursday release will make for a peculiar daily pattern. Films as diverse as Indiana Jones 4, The Hangover 2 and 3, and Terminator: Salvation have shown that the Thursday before Memorial Day is in general a weak day as business is spread out over five days. Even including previews, box office will spike noticeably on Friday for Baywatch. From there, the Saturday of Memorial Day weekend is weak for much the same reason as Thursday, so expect a minuscule increase at best. The holiday Monday will then lead to strong holds on Sunday and Monday.
Beyond the opening weekend, the biggest question mark will be whether audiences respond to the film with the same vitriol as critics. For what its worth, plenty of comedies have achieved great legs without good reviews, and this one at least promises to have laughs as opposed to the final Hangover film. On the other hand, next week sees the release of three films that will together target virtually every conceivable quadrant, so the second weekend drop will likely not be pretty.
The TV show had by far its largest audience internationally, so it is entirely possible the film will be a rare US comedy to play much stronger overseas than domestically. Sadly, there is very little information available at the time on its outlook in foreign countries. Baywatch will, according to IMDB, release in only four overseas territories this week, most likely to avoid competition from this weeks other opener. My international prediction is admittedly a shot in the dark.
First up, with a relatively unique Thursday release, is Baywatch. Based on the massive international hit TV show, Paramount is looking for a sizeable win here that will try to tap into a box office trifecta: 90s nostalgia, star power, and a 21 Jump Street-esque tone. With plenty of T & A and freakishly chiseled abs, the film is certainly hewing to its source material in that regard. The film features a multicultural cast and the marketing has put Dwayne Johnson front and center. The Rock has been described as franchise Viagra and (for the most part) lived up to that moniker, with 2015s San Andreas being the strongest indicator that he is indeed a draw. Zac Efrons character is also clearly closer to his turn in Neighbors, whose first installment grossed $150M, than in his other comedies. Lastly, with a hard R rating and the promise of over-the-top action, the film is following in the footsteps of Lord and Millers 21 Jump Street reboot films, which have grossed $138M and $192M domestically.
So the ingredients are all there for a massive breakout. And the online numbers from Youtube and Twitter has been strong. But is this buzz all positive? The Baywatch series has considerable name recognition, but unlike 21 Jump Street, the TV show is nowadays more likely to elicit jokes than real nostalgia. And for those who are excited for a reboot, the material here is probably not what they want. The trailers have relied heavily on gross-out humor and dick jokes, and the concept of turning the Baywatch lifeguards into drug cartel busting heroes is decidedly more absurd than the Jump Street films. Similar to Pixels, two potentially winning formulae (videogame space invaders and Adam Sandler in a frat pack action comedy) may end up alienating both audiences. Its also worth noting that this years CHiPs tried also to revive an old TV show into an R-rated action flick and failed spectacularly, grossing only $25M worldwide. Baywatch can at least be safe knowing it will look favorably compared to that.
Making matters worse is that critics have panned the movie; as of this writing, Baywatch has a terrible 16% on Rotten Tomatoes and 37 on Metacritic. While some R-rated comedies have succeeded without a critical stamp of approval, in general, breakouts within the genre have had at least positive reviews. Also worrisome is the film has yet to appear on Movie Tickets top 5 trending, despite the relative weakness of the current crop of films outside the top two.
Is Baywatch gearing up for bomb status, then? Well, not quite. Dwayne Johnson is almost certainly a positive for this film, and if this breaks out beyond expectations he will (unfairly or not) be pointed to as the reason why. The negative signs are enough to prevent a break-out and, in my opinion, from matching the most recent tracking. But I do believe The Rock will help keep this film from sinking, at least on opening weekend.
Getting into specifics, the Thursday release will make for a peculiar daily pattern. Films as diverse as Indiana Jones 4, The Hangover 2 and 3, and Terminator: Salvation have shown that the Thursday before Memorial Day is in general a weak day as business is spread out over five days. Even including previews, box office will spike noticeably on Friday for Baywatch. From there, the Saturday of Memorial Day weekend is weak for much the same reason as Thursday, so expect a minuscule increase at best. The holiday Monday will then lead to strong holds on Sunday and Monday.
Beyond the opening weekend, the biggest question mark will be whether audiences respond to the film with the same vitriol as critics. For what its worth, plenty of comedies have achieved great legs without good reviews, and this one at least promises to have laughs as opposed to the final Hangover film. On the other hand, next week sees the release of three films that will together target virtually every conceivable quadrant, so the second weekend drop will likely not be pretty.
The TV show had by far its largest audience internationally, so it is entirely possible the film will be a rare US comedy to play much stronger overseas than domestically. Sadly, there is very little information available at the time on its outlook in foreign countries. Baywatch will, according to IMDB, release in only four overseas territories this week, most likely to avoid competition from this weeks other opener. My international prediction is admittedly a shot in the dark.
Code:
[U]Predictions[/U]
Pre: $1.3M
Thu: $6.6M/$5.30M
Fri: $8.7M +31.82%/+64.15%
Sat: $8.8M +1.15%
Sun: $7.7M -12.50%
Mon: $5.3M -31.17%
OW (FSS): $25.2M
2nd: $11.1M -55.95%
3rd: $6.4M -42.34%
4th: $3.1M -48.44%
DOM: $72M
INT: $130M
WW: $202MSibersk Esto
Banned
Baywatch will be curious. Can Dwayne Johnson and decent trailer reception weather the bad reviews?
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
I probably won't get my write-up for Pirates done before BOM, Guru, etc. all weigh in, but I'm currently thinking sub $75M 4-day.
Are you thinking $150M domestic?
Also presales for Pirates 5 in China slowed down quite a bit in the past week. Should still be big there, but probably not $200M big. WOM from the premiere is not great.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Yeah. I was getting the feeling last weekend looking at presales that I wouldn't match the $240M I predicted in the top 5 prediction thread. Things aren't looking rosier today, and I felt that reviews were going to impact this film one way or the other.... And it's reviewing even worse than On Stranger Tides.
It's possible I'm overestimating the impact of reviews here, but even then, Johnny Depp has been getting some really poor publicity the last couple weeks as well.
Do you have estimates on how Pirates 4 would look with today's exchange rate? If China is improving on it by "only" $100M, then I don't expect more than $750M WW either.
Pirates 4 would have been roughly $825M worldwide at current rates.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
well, when it comes to predictions, nobody knows anything. Also screenwriting, apparently. And management. And economy. And... you know what, just use that one in general.
The sudden 'shift' towards Wonder Woman is curious, but it's kind of because there's not much else around if Pirates and friends doesn't eat its lunch money. Lucky break for WB there.
Obliterator
Member
Predicting the Box Office is pretty hard. Much harder than predicting sales in the game industry. The gaming industry is much more straightforward and you can usually get a good idea how something will perform months in advance.
I feel like with the BO things can change as quickly as 1 or 2 week's. Some films that have a ton of buzz just seem to lose steam right at the last minute and vice versa.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Just look at Get Out. That seemed to come out of nowhere, then the overwhelmingly positive critical buzz set in and it was a beast after that.
I think that has more to do with how the film was advertised. It was advertised as a cheap horror flick, not this sort of satire thriller. Once it got out what it was, it blew up.
Similar to games like Demon Souls or Nier. They looked cheap, but once gamers got a hold on them. It blew up. There was no way you could advertise either correctly, without spoiling it at the time.
Sibersk Esto
Banned
Guardians 2 has been beating Covenant's weekdays (narrowly). I wonder if it'll beat it this weekend even with both of them getting pushed down by Pirates.
That should easily happen. Covenant is an R rated film and therefore benefits from stronger weekdays. GotG2 was about $5M ahead of Alien Covenant between Sat and Sun last weekend. Covenant only won the weekend because of Thursday previews.
Wow, It's looking like WW will have a stronger OW than Pirates. Didn't see that coming.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Baywatch made $1.25M from preview screenings.
Baywatch made $1.3M from Wednesday previews, which is exactly what B-G-E was predicting in his analysis above (EDIT: Beaten by seconds!).
Tracking for the 5-day weekend was around $40M, but Paramount has said that they are expected a low 30M opening. Hollywood Reporter puts the budget at $60M, which is lower than the earlier quote I mentioned a few days back.
Tracking for the 5-day weekend was around $40M, but Paramount has said that they are expected a low 30M opening. Hollywood Reporter puts the budget at $60M, which is lower than the earlier quote I mentioned a few days back.
Dash_Riprock
Member
So this time China WON'T be saving another crap franchise?
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
also, looking forward a bit, do we expect Transformers to do worse than its predecessors too?
ryutaro's mama
Member
We haven't had one since 1979.
Thats cold
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Most likely. It's predecessor had really weak legs and seems to have the worst WOM of any of the films so far.
Pirates 5 may give us some idea, since so far the trajectories of the two series have been quite similar.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Shit. Beat me to it.
Ow. The edge.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Yet, no lies detected.
What did he mean by this?
Member
The gall of Pirates 5 to have an end-credits scene. Add it to King Arthur's end credits scene of never happening. There's got to be a term for this
Bobby Roberts
Banned
There'll be one more. This can finish at 80mil domestic and they'll chuck him 75-80 mil for the next one like "wrap it up, Ridley"
Then we'll get to wait for like 5-10 years, and they'll try it again.
ryutaro's mama
Member
As it turns out, fairly easily. Lol.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
But what if they somehow convince Cameron to make his own Aliens followup? Distract him from Avatar for a bit?
Or Fox throw enough money and ass kissing to Fincher to finally make an Alien movie on his terms?
Ridley Scott has been talking to Lucasfilm.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Yo-ho-ho, and a box office run
Disney will add continue to add to their coffers this weekend as they crash through the $1 billion mark domestically. Guardians of the Galaxy 2 will reap in cash for them, but the biggest question mark of the weekend is the studios attempt to pivot Johnny Depp in this frame for the second year in a row. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales will easily swagger into first place, but can it reverse the downward trend of the series?
The Pirates franchise is one of the most fascinating in Hollywood, taking inspiration from a theme park ride and becoming one of the biggest franchises in the world. The first released in 2003 was a surprise box office smash, grossing $305M domestically and beating out The Matrix Reloaded. Curse of the Black Pearl had some of the best word of mouth of the last two decades, and the sequel reaped the benefits: 2006s Dead Mans Chest broke the opening weekend record on its way to $423M and, even more shockingly, became the third film to break $1 billion worldwide. The third installment, At Worlds End, released only a year later and was a huge hit as well, but domestically came back down to Earth a bit with $309M. Weaker word of mouth from these bloated sequels took their toll, and On Stranger Tides grossed $241M domestically in 2011. But worldwide, the fourth Pirates film grossed an eye-popping $805M internationally thanks to favorable exchange rates and the boon of 3D.
The Pirates films are a textbook example of a box office philosophy: sequels benefit from the successes of their predecessors, but pay for their sins as well. Unfortunately for Dead Mans Chest, its predecessor had the worst word of mouth of the series, with many finding the film was forgettable and the Jack Sparrow character tired at this point.
Disney has at least marketed the film quite well, delivering a solid run of trailers that have generated strong interest online and employed the tagline The Final Adventure Begins (it is worth noting this tactic did not work for the Shrek series, whose trajectory has matched Pirates very closely). Unlike On Stranger Tides, the film appears to have spectacle and Orlando Blooms cameo is being marketed, which may make fans more excited. After a CinemaCon screening last month, buzz was the film was a return to form, and it seemed plausible the film could counteract the poor reception of its predecessor. But the critical reception has been the opposite; it is, in fact, the worst reviewed Pirates film to date, with 32% on Rotten Tomatoes and 38 on Metacritic as of this writing. Needless to say, Disney hopes audiences will not react the same way.
Another troubling aspect is the star of the film, Johnny Depp. Since 2011, his shtick of playing eccentric characters seem to be played out, with many of his projects flat-out bombing. The domestic abuse allegations were heavily publicized and potentially makes him an off-putting figure now for audiences. Further stories the past two weeks about his financial troubles, erratic behavior on set, and demands of script changes may have further polarized him. Disney has taken the focus off him in the marketing, with more emphasis on newcomers Brenton Thwaites and Kaya Scodelario. But this franchise still lives or dies based on Depp.
All told, its most likely Pirates 5 is gearing up for a large drop-off from the previous film. Fandango has noticeably not reported any presale comparisons for the film, suggesting it is failing to outsell even Pirates 4. 2011 was a lifetime ago for presales, so this is simply not a good sign. Tracking has put this in the $80-85M range for the 4-day opening, which is still possible, but I am feeling this will go significantly lower.
Beyond the opening weekend, things arent going to improve for Pirates. At Worlds End had a Memorial Day release as well, and when including early Thursday showings (which is the standard now, but was not in 2007), the film dropped over 65% in its second weekend. There is not nearly as much rapid anticipation this time around, but the competition Pirates 5 faces is far fiercer. Its only reprieve will be a potential boost in grosses from double features with Cars 3 in its fourth weekend.
As previously mentioned, the last Pirates film made a gargantuan amount in overseas territories. In current exchange rates, though, that figures drops by over $200M. China will show plenty of growth, but so far results are not suggesting it will be a major overperformer there. The only major territory not opening this weekend is Japan so the overseas opening could crack the top ten of all time, but it should account for at least 40% of its total.
Code:
[U]Predictions[/U]
Pre: $5.6M
Fri: $22.2M/$16.6M
Sat: $18.3M -17.57%/+10.24%
Sun: $16.5M -9.84%
Mon: $12.6M -23.64%
OW (FSS): $57.0M
2nd: $20.2M -64.56%
3rd: $10.3M -49.01%
4th: $7.0M -32.04%
DOM: $147M
INT: $560M
WW: $707M
Code:
[U]The Leftovers [/U] [U]3-day[/U]
2) Baywatch $25.2M
3) Guardians of the Galaxy 2 $21.9M -36.80%
4) Alien: Covenant $12.7M -64.88%
5) Everything, Everything $7.1M -39.47%
6) Snatched $4.5M -42.53%
7) King Arthur $3.5M -51.05%
8) The Boss Baby $1.8M -36.84%
9) Fate of the Furious $1.7M -47.37%
10) Beauty and the Beast $1.6M -37.25%- Guardians 2 will be looking at easily its best hold to date. It has shown some great weekdays numbers, and with the same studio double-feature effect, it may end up holding even better than Im predicting.
- Alien: Covenant, on the other hand, is in a rough spot. Historically, R-rated blockbusters do not have strong Friday increases. If it performs like Mad Max percentage over the weekend, it would gross a little under $14M. I am expecting worse here due to extremely mixed word of mouth.
- There isnt much else going on with the rest of the holdovers. Some sharp theater drops will prevent very strong holds for a number of films, including King Arthur.
Sibersk Esto
Banned
"Hey Finch-man, we at FOX were thinking that you are the perfect guy to bring in for a new Aliens movie..."
Aliens...
Aliens...
Green Lanterned?
The Sinestro Corps teaser at the end basically rubbed it in your face that there was now zero chance of ever seeing the Sinestro Corps War adapted to film. Green Lantern was so thoroughly tarnished that he got demoted from being a founding Justice League member in the DCEU.
Claude Augario
Member
Sequel shook.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
I hate to say it, but...
Even if my low prediction ends up happening, I can definitely see them deciding to do a 6th one with Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley as main characters.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Charlie Hunam's agent, telling him to go on a quest for better work.