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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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Mark my words, Democrats will find their fortunes in women.

If we pay attention, really look at what's happening in the grassroots, it's all women. At the forefront of every movement. Black Lives Matter, the Women's March, The Mothers of the Movement, etc. It's all women. Pissed off women who aren't afraid to speak their minds. That is heart of this moment on the Left.

Hillary Clinton wasn't enough to tap into this moment, but her loss helped ignite it.
But, don't minority women already split D as much as you can possibly expect any group of people to split? I think we already ask of them as much as we physically can.

It's white women who still split R. And they still split for Trump. It was close but they still in a majority voted for him.

Hillary made massive gains on Obama there but I think my concern is that all of that progress would go out the window if republicans ran someone more "folksy" and "nice" in the vein of the Kasich/GWB mold.

Only way I really see white women are more so in the fold if democrats don't improve their numbers with white voters in general is if the sexist, alt-right tone is what their future candidates also look like
 

Valhelm

contribute something
I think about the automation of the trucking industry and the more I do the more I begin to think it'll be the defining turning point for the country and whether we ease into it or if people stick their fingers in their ears and ignore the problem until things turn violent.

I'm worried that a larger population of angry unemployed white guys could help empower somebody far worse than Trump.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Kyle Kondik‏ @kkondik 13m13 minutes ago
Dems should consider dumping Pelosi force simple reason that she is the party leader in the House and they've recovered no ground since 2010

Kyle Kondik‏ @kkondik 13m13 minutes ago
"Oh but she's a great fundraiser!" Well what has that money bought? A net 1-seat gain since 63-seat loss in 2010

https://twitter.com/kkondik
 
Just tuning in. A disaster just like I thought. I'm never confident when POC turnout is low when it comes to Democrats. That's the beginning and end of it.
Just like I said, post-Obama you're gonna have to find candidates who are people of color and/or people who people fucking believe when they talk about civil rights.
 

Zolo

Member
Kyle Kondik‏ @kkondik 13m13 minutes ago
"Oh but she's a great fundraiser!" Well what has that money bought? A net 1-seat gain since 63-seat loss in 2010

Kinda apply it to more of the Democratic party, but this made me laugh.
 

Loxley

Member
To see people go from the ridiculous hubris of Democrats will never lose because of magical demographics to Republicans will never lose because of whatever in less than a year is very trying as someone who doesn't see things in such narrow reactionary ways.

Yeah, the whole "Republicans will never lose" mentality that a number of folks around here seem to have confuses me. I'm not sure what kind of scenario people are envisioning 5-10-20 years down the line. Like, do they genuinely believe that Democrats will never ever have power ever again? Or that Dems will never hold the House or Senate again? Like it's somehow literally impossible for a Democrat to ever be elected into any kind of office whatsoever from this point forward. It's such a laughable notion that I'm amazed they're not embarrassed by it.
 

Blader

Member
God damn Osoff losing sucks. I will be dead inside if Dems don't take back the house and multiple governorships next year. Would've been nice to get one W on the board before next year instead of another well we got close in an impossible district.

There are two governors races in November that are far more feasible Ws than any of these four special House elections were ever going to be.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powe...5fd8e0c288f_story.html?utm_term=.b34ff8f26f20

Echoes the feeling that we may need candidates that are harsher and play the game better.

I've been hesitant about her chances, but I think Harris can do this.

Welcome to the team!
 

Slizeezyc

Member
Yeah, the whole "Republicans will never lose" mentality that a number of folks around here seem to have confuses me. I'm not sure what kind of scenario people are envisioning 5-10-20 years down the line. Like, do they genuinely believe that Democrats will never ever have power ever again? Or that Dems will never hold the House or Senate again? Like it's somehow literally impossible for a Democrat to ever be elected into any kind of office whatsoever from this point forward. It's such a laughable notion that I'm amazed they're not embarrassed by it.

People generally aren't that rational when they're venting on the GAF.
 

Foffy

Banned
I think about the automation of the trucking industry and the more I do the more I begin to think it'll be the defining turning point for the country and whether we ease into it or if people stick their fingers in their ears and ignore the problem until things turn violent.

This is my fear.

It brings me to tears at times knowing how much misery we normalize. Automation is the fucking tipping point to whether we "wake up" or crystalize this culture and how it's very much a culture of combat.
 

Zolo

Member
This is my fear.

It brings me to tears at times knowing how much misery we normalize. Automation is the fucking tipping point to whether we "wake up" or crystalize this culture and how it's very much a culture of combat.

Yeah. I think this will be the biggest issue we face coming up, and considering how much politicians don't want to react to climate change, I'm confident automation is going to do a number on the country.
 
I think about the automation of the trucking industry and the more I do the more I begin to think it'll be the defining turning point for the country and whether we ease into it or if people stick their fingers in their ears and ignore the problem until things turn violent.

By defining turning point...do you mean > GDP growth than Trump projected at 3%, very low unemployment, and rising wages? I don't see why people will get violent when they're so happy.
 
Y'all need more calm in your lives.

The looming automation of the trucking industry is going to massively displace the rural South, so there has to be an interesting economic angle to play there besides "helping the truckers."

Democrats need to be visceral to win Southern House seats.

Automation is unfortunately something that has to happen first before we can run on solutions to the consequences. If climate change is any indication, people don't really care until an issue affects them, even if it'll cause them a ton of pain later.

But, don't minority women already split D as much as you can possibly expect any group of people to split? I think we already ask of them as much as we physically can.

It's white women who still split R. And they still split for Trump. It was close but they still in a majority voted for him.

Hillary made massive gains on Obama there but I think my concern is that all of that progress would go out the window if republicans ran someone more "folksy" and "nice" in the vein of the Kasich/GWB mold.

Only way I really see white women are more so in the fold if democrats don't improve their numbers with white voters in general is if the sexist, alt-right tone is what their future candidates also look like

Women are responsible for over 3/4ths of calls to Congresspeople though. That's not all women of color. And ultimately statements like these are arguing that we need more rural men on board, many (most?) of whom vote pretty racist. My answer to that...

I'm worried that a larger population of angry unemployed white guys could help empower somebody far worse than Trump.

...is the same response here. I'm a rural poor white guy in a red state and yet somehow I haven't fallen prey to the lure of white supremacy. It's not actually that hard to do and there's no reason to give people an out for their actions. A racist being unemployed means nothing to me.
 
So, I have a dumb question. Say tomorrow Nancy Pelosi steps down and someone else takes her place in leadership. Does that end all negative ads tying Democrats to Pelosi? Wouldn't they just continue to do it despite her no longer being in a leadership position?

I don't even know who would replace her. What other Democrat in the House has the kind of willingness to get down and dirty that Pelosi has displayed? I suppose Steny Hoyer takes over, but I doubt he gets by without being demonized as Pelosi's lackey.
 

Emerson

May contain jokes =>
Yeah, the whole "Republicans will never lose" mentality that a number of folks around here seem to have confuses me. I'm not sure what kind of scenario people are envisioning 5-10-20 years down the line. Like, do they genuinely believe that Democrats will never ever have power ever again? Or that Dems will never hold the House or Senate again? Like it's somehow literally impossible for a Democrat to ever be elected into any kind of office whatsoever from this point forward. It's such a laughable notion that I'm amazed they're not embarrassed by it.

There are a lot of people on NeoGAF who were literal children the last time a Democrat wasn't president.
 
By defining turning point...do you mean > GDP growth than Trump projected at 3%, very low unemployment, and rising wages? I don't see why people will get violent when they're so happy.

I don't get this comment. Automation of vehicles is going to displace tens of millions of jobs, with no replacement. This isn't a telegram -> telephone situation. Something like 45 states list "driver" as the number one job in the state, to say nothing of the decimation that mechanics and secondary care occupations will see since automated cars don't crash and won't break down for years.

The turning point is when we as a nation have no choice but to pick between mass homelessness and starvation or a basic income.
 

tbm24

Member
The counter argument here is ______________________ ?
Whoever replaces Pelosi fills in the blank space she'd leave behind for republicans to attack. So nothing would change on this front? Aside losing an effective house leader?
 

Blader

Member
Trump won because he supported Social Security and Medicare.

Trump has kind of shown that being an asshole as a boss is terrible as a president because then every embarrassing detail about the White House leaks. Kamala is a huge asshole as a boss. Not sure I love it.

But I do think she could inspire black turnout and black turnout in 2016 was bad because young black people thought Hillary was too racist.

But then again, the GOP is going to hate Kamala as much as they hated Hillary. Republican Senators openly disrespect her already.

This is pretty much a non-issue. The GOP is going to hate any Democratic nominee. Republicans have hated Democratic presidents and Democratic presidential nominees like poison for my entire life, and I have the years of near-daily listening to Rush and Hannity to prove it.


Recruiting candidates and organizing campaigns is not Pelosi's job. That's on the DNC and DCCC.

Yeah, the whole "Republicans will never lose" mentality that a number of folks around here seem to have confuses me. I'm not sure what kind of scenario people are envisioning 5-10-20 years down the line. Like, do they genuinely believe that Democrats will never ever have power ever again? Or that Dems will never hold the House or Senate again? Like it's somehow literally impossible for a Democrat to ever be elected into any kind of office whatsoever from this point forward. It's such a laughable notion that I'm amazed they're not embarrassed by it.

These are undoubtedly many of the same people who believed just a year ago that a Republican would never win the White House again for decades.
 
Mark my words, Democrats will find their fortunes in women.

If we pay attention, really look at what's happening in the grassroots, it's all women. At the forefront of every movement. Black Lives Matter, the Women's March, The Mothers of the Movement, etc. It's all women. Pissed off women who aren't afraid to speak their minds. That is heart of this moment on the Left.

Hillary Clinton wasn't enough to tap into this moment, but her loss helped ignite it.

I think you're pretty much spot on here.

Edit- I would really love for Kamala or Michelle to run in 2020. I think they'd make for very strong candidates in terms of turning out our base.

I mean aren't black women some of the most politically active/vote in high numbers? Too bad black people (and specifically black women) are so reviled in this country :/

I think the two go hand in hand sadly.
 
Not that surprised by Ossoff losing to be honest- he was a good, not great candidate IMHO. Has a future but needs to refine his message- should definitely give it another shot in 2018 as Handel is a pretty awful candidate and this is the type of seat that will flip in midterms.

I'm not chicken littling about this seat- when the midterms occur, there won't be this ridiculous scrutiny on these individual races. The RNC won't be able to pour in millions into these races. The really tight South Carolina race, for example, is really interesting to me.

I'm starting to get of the opinion that Pelosi has become a boogeyman for the GOP that is hurting downstream Democrats. She just has such high unfavorables nationally- I'm not even sure most Democrats like her. I certainly don't hate her but I want the party to go younger and establish a different identity going forward. I'm a liberal East Coaster but I realize voices from my bubble do not resonate everywhere.

I totally agree with most of you- there is a solid core that is moving against Trump. Mobilizing POC is the additional voting block that will be critical to getting Democrats over the top. Increasing young voter participation will also make a big difference.
 
Women are responsible for over 3/4ths of calls to Congresspeople though. That's not all women of color. And ultimately statements like these are arguing that we need more rural men on board, many (most?) of whom vote pretty racist. My answer to that...



...is the same response here. I'm a rural poor white guy in a red state and yet somehow I haven't fallen prey to the lure of white supremacy. It's not actually that hard to do and there's no reason to give people an out for their actions. A racist being unemployed means nothing to me.

I'm not sure how you draw the conclusion that I implied we needed to appeal to racism more to win over women ?

I'm just saying that are numbers with women are were they are. White women still split republican. But a republican who doesn't target minorities or who isn't as blatantly sexist as trump is positioned to do significantly better nationally with white women than anyone democrats run unless democrats improve their numbers with white voters overall.

Racism is a large part of how many white women vote and unless you figure out how to either fix this problem or how we communicate with people or how to improve numbers with whites overall, given how the democrats split im just not sure how I understand how women will be the key to unlocking victory. Because they are the only group of women with big numbers to flip.

Hillary's issues were more with minority men. Who either didn't vote, voted third party or even voted for trump in much larger numbers than they did in elections with Obama running
 
The counter argument here is ______________________ ?
That that isn't her goddamn job? That's on the DNC/DCCC/DSCC. If we're going to blame her and put things that have nothing to do with her entirely on her shoulders, it just demonstrates that the people making those calls have so little understanding of government and her actual job that I don't know why anyone would take such hot-takes seriously.

Unless the answer is to make that the minority leader/Speaker of the House's role and responsibilities, but it currently is not.

And beyond that, what's the solution? Because whoever replacers her Republicans will do the same goddamn thing to because they're entire line of attack against her is that she was Speaker of the House in the past, and could be again. That's something they could literally do to ANYONE. Not at first, but with time.

So the solution to that is... what exactly? Never keep anyone as Speaker/Minority Leader for more than 2 years? That ain't a good way to build up experience and actually let people become competent at the job! That and it certainly doesn't help the DNC or whatever institutions you think the Minority Leader/Speaker of the House should be working with to elect more D's to actually become a well-oiled machine if our leaders are constantly coming and going, coming and going, coming and going.

And if you don't replace them just like that, then Republicans will have the ability to do with anyone what they did with Pelosi, since their entire line of attack is that she was a Democratic Minority Leader of the House/Speaker of the House, and that's a no good, very bad, terrible thing.

So what's the solution to that exactly? Because I damn well haven't heard one. Either we make Minority Leader/Speaker of the House a revolving door position, or Republicans will do to whomever your replacement ends up being the same they did to Pelosi?

What's the solution to that Catch-22 situation? Until someone can actually answer that, you can all shut the fuck up about Nancy Pelosi and how terrible she is for Democrats based on fucking Republican attack ads that we don't even have a goddamn clue about whether they had any effect on who these people voted for and whether or not they would have voted the same way regardless, and the hit take from that being a solution that would have us wind up in the same position (new Minority Leader/Speaker of the House being demonized just like Pelosi) or worse (the Speaker becoming an ineffective revolving door position for Democrats trying to avoid Pelosi style attacks and shooting themselves in the feet in the process by the works bring gummed up and no one being able to gain experience in the position, which Republicans would also no doubt turn into attack ads about how terrible Democrats are since they can't even keep a leader on board for more than 2 years or whatever and how can you trust such an unstable party like that regardless).

Until I can hear an answer to THAT any hot takes about Pelosi can find their way to the nearest dumpster because unless you can resolve that Catch-22, they're useless and involve tossing an effective fundraiser (among her actual jobs) to the curb just to find ourselves in the same or a worse situation regardless.
 
Yeah, the whole "Republicans will never lose" mentality that a number of folks around here seem to have confuses me. I'm not sure what kind of scenario people are envisioning 5-10-20 years down the line. Like, do they genuinely believe that Democrats will never ever have power ever again? Or that Dems will never hold the House or Senate again? Like it's somehow literally impossible for a Democrat to ever be elected into any kind of office whatsoever from this point forward. It's such a laughable notion that I'm amazed they're not embarrassed by it.

It's a laughable notion, but I could easily see 8-12 years of Republican rule, a la 1980-1992, especially if the Russia investigation ends up going nowhere that specifically ties anything to Trump. The more I skim conservative Twitter, the more I realize just how much conservatives have come to HATE liberals. This is a powerful, galvanizing force.

Edit: Pelosi is not "just" a minority leader, she is basically the face of Washington establishment Dems now that the Hillary boogeyman has been defeated. They're doing their best to build up Schumer as a phony, opportunistic prick, but until that's baked in, stirring up hate against Pelosi is probably their most effective weapon.
 

pigeon

Banned
It's a laughable notion, but I could easily see 8-12 years of Republican rule, a la 1980-1992, especially if the Russia investigation ends up going nowhere that specifically ties anything to Trump. The more I skim conservative Twitter, the more I realize just how much conservatives have come to HATE liberals. This is a powerful, galvanizing force.

I don't think the problen that we don't hate them enough
 
I don't think the problen that we don't hate them enough

Ehhh

You can see it even here... just look at that Nugent/Maher thread. Or any thread about protesting Milo or BLM blocking traffic, etc or guys like Chait or that professor who ran to Tucker Carlson

So much is spent tutting the left

Meanwhile the right can threaten, assault, and out right hate and it's all good
 

kess

Member
The south isn't the only one, Trucking is the most common job in the nation. It is going to be huge, and we are going to see anti-automation laws passed in a bunch of States to try and slow it down once it starts picking up steam in a few years.

And it WILL be blamed on liberals. Ethanol subsidies were blamed on Democrats even though they were voted through Congress under Bush and trucking operators will blame them even whilst utilizing automated services. Democrats need to figure out an answer to this now.
 
Run Pro-Life Democrats in most of these Special Elections and they probably pick up 5 points. White Women generally vote Republican because they are Pro-Life.
Pro life democrats are not an option. We cannot have anti-choice voting members in the party. We can't convince anti-choice voters to vote D anyway.

The best we can do is softer tones like Biden and Kaine. They reach out to women with religious pro life beliefs but are ok with not obstructing choice for women with different beliefs
 
I don't think the problen that we don't hate them enough

There's a difference in the character of it. Liberal hatred of conservatives is great, but more diffuse and difficult to harness because liberals don't really agree on the practical reality of how to achieve their alternative vision of how things should be. For example, I feel zero affinity for the poststructural/critical theoretical turn liberalism has taken the last few years, despite there being an underlying hatred of structural and interpersonal racism, sexism, and homophobia on all our parts. Conservative hatred of liberals is unified and laser-precise, and therefore easier to harness.
 
I'm so smart

Yes, that was clearly a thinly veiled "fuck women" comment, rather than an observation that White Women voted more for Trump in 2016, and Hillary handily won the Younger White Women vote, meaning it was older more Conservative women that voted overwhelmingly for Trump.
 
I'm not sure how you draw the conclusion that I implied we needed to appeal to racism more to win over women ?

I'm just saying that are numbers with women are were they are. White women still split republican. But a republican who doesn't target minorities or who isn't as blatantly sexist as trump is positioned to do significantly better nationally with white women than anyone democrats run unless democrats improve their numbers with white voters overall.

Racism is a large part of how many white women vote and unless you figure out how to either fix this problem or how we communicate with people or how to improve numbers with whites overall, given how the democrats split im just not sure how I understand how women will be the key to unlocking victory. Because they are the only group of women with big numbers to flip.

Hillary's issues were more with minority men. Who either didn't vote, voted third party or even voted for trump in much larger numbers than they did in elections with Obama running

Are you talking presidential or House races? Because if it's the former, I could see this argument fitting with what you mentioned before. But it's not compatible with the latter in areas without many minority voters. If you're saying the Dems need to win those, it's either men or women, and I'd rather play for more women.
 

pigeon

Banned
Yes, that was clearly a thinly veiled "fuck women" comment, rather than an observation that White Women voted more for Trump in 2016, and Hillary handily won the Younger White Women vote, meaning it was older more Conservative women that voted overwhelmingly for Trump.

Suggesting we run pro-life candidates is not really veiled at all.
 

Blader

Member
It's a laughable notion, but I could easily see 8-12 years of Republican rule, a la 1980-1992

Eight years of a Republican White House isn't laughable. Even in spite of Trump's poor approval ratings five months in, modern presidents are more likely to win re-election than lose. Twelve years seems like a pretty tall order though. It worked in '88 because Reagan was so popular and Dukkakis was a terrible candidate. If Republicans are going to try to replicate that scenario with Pence, they're already off to a bad start.
 
While we all pour out our fears about what caused tonight, let me add mine. Georgia officials have straight up said they drew up GA-06 to elect Republicans. Tonight seems to show they were successful.

With advances in precinct level voting trend analysis and one party rule in so many states it seems possible that, unless the Supreme Court restricts gerrymandering, the GOP will be able to craft voting blocs that guarantee them a perpetual majority baring a true 1932-style wave election.
 

Zolo

Member
Suggesting we run pro-life candidates is not really veiled at all.

I could see the practical idea behind it since abortion's the #1 issue people bring up to each other in voting Republican, but the (possible?) gains would still be too small for the other reasons the Republican candidate would still win.
 
Eight years of a Republican White House isn't laughable. Even in spite of Trump's poor approval ratings five months in, modern presidents are more likely to win re-election than lose. Twelve years seems like a pretty tall order though. It worked in '88 because Reagan was so popular and Dukkakis was a terrible candidate. If Republicans are going to try to replicate that scenario with Pence, they're already off to a bad start.

I meant permanent Republican hegemony is laughable, not 8 years. Every time I see something happen on a college campus with some regular-ass liberal professor getting protested by students, or video of some dudes in black hoodies beating up on a Trump supporter, or other such things that are very easily weaponized by conservative media without having to engage in much spin, my gut tells me that the Republican outrage machine is much, much better than anything the liberals have.
 
To less effect.

Basically, let Republicans dictate the Dems . If Republicans don't like a Democrat leader and keep tying them to candidate, then the Democrats must force the Democrat leader to step down so Republicans won't be mean. Lol, you know how weak that looks? Who will put their trust in the party if the party reacts to the whims of the opposition? Words won't describe on how pathetic that is.

So what if they go after Bernie Sanders, if he becomes a Democrat leader? You will let him go too?
 
Suggesting we run pro-life candidates is not really veiled at all.

Did I say I liked that idea? Simply put, the people who consistently show up and vote don't like Abortion--to the point that they would vote for someone like Donald Trump in record numbers (he won Evangelicals by a higher margin than any Republican before him). If you want a Candidate that can consistently win in these regions they need to be more Manchin and less Harris.

Truth be told I think the Government should stay out of a Woman's Right to Choose entirely, it should be between a woman and their doctor, as well as what they think is best for themselves. But the fact is, it's the one issue that consistently riles up the Conservative base, and like it or not, the South is full of Conservative voters.

I could see the practical idea behind it since abortion's the #1 issue people bring up to each other in voting Republican, but the (possible?) gains would still be too small for the other reasons the Republican candidate would still win.

Every person I know that votes Republican does so for two reasons: Abortion and Guns. They then say they want lower taxes, but voters have no idea how the tax system in this country works anyway--to the point where Republicans in 2017 said they were happier with their income tax rate than they were in 2016 despite literally nothing changing. The number of times I have to explain that getting a raise at work won't lower your take home by bumping you into a higher tax bracket is astounding.
 
Are you talking presidential or House races? Because if it's the former, I could see this argument fitting with what you mentioned before. But it's not compatible with the latter in areas without many minority voters. If you're saying the Dems need to win those, it's either men or women, and I'd rather play for more women.
In general I think it's both really. But in smaller state elections In areas without many minority voters, I don't believe white women can be split away from white men in large enough numbers in order to win consistently.

I mean I could but totally wrong but I'm not sure what approach you would need to take. I think realistically given where we are at you'd likely have to figure out how to reach out to more of both. Even if you can't win a majority of either.
 

royalan

Member
I'm not sure how you draw the conclusion that I implied we needed to appeal to racism more to win over women ?

I'm just saying that are numbers with women are were they are. White women still split republican. But a republican who doesn't target minorities or who isn't as blatantly sexist as trump is positioned to do significantly better nationally with white women than anyone democrats run unless democrats improve their numbers with white voters overall.

Racism is a large part of how many white women vote and unless you figure out how to either fix this problem or how we communicate with people or how to improve numbers with whites overall, given how the democrats split im just not sure how I understand how women will be the key to unlocking victory. Because they are the only group of women with big numbers to flip.

Hillary's issues were more with minority men. Who either didn't vote, voted third party or even voted for trump in much larger numbers than they did in elections with Obama running

Every thing you say here was the wise man's thinking about Barack Obama prior to his run. He broke the rule book.

We have seen time and time again recently, the rule book does not trump the politics of the moment.
 
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