Just to reiterate my point about Splatoon 2 from the last thread.
YW2 on a vastly bigger audience(15 million 3DS sold at that point) sold over 5 million in 2014 year thanks to 3 separate versions of the game. If Splatoon 2 holds this level of performance in the long run it will pass Yo-kai Watch 2: Ganso / Honke launch aligned by the end of 2017. Splatoon on the Wii U sold 300K in December without a bundle on the Wii U, on the Switch we could see at least three times the amount sold during Splatoon 2's first holiday.
This is the reason I think that as the Switch audience grows Splatoon 2 will outsell YW2's LTD sales across three different versions. Basically unlike YW2 Splatoon 2 is going to be a single game with continued growth due to updates and marketing. The only thing holding the game back is the size of the Switch audience in Japan, but this audience should be near 10 million by the end of 2018.
Right now there is only 1.6 million Switches sold, by the end of the year if that figure grows to 4 million - Splatoon 2 at 70% attachment rate would be at 2.8 million. If it achieves a higher attachment rate or if there is more Switches sold it's likely to be higher than this.
70% AR at 4 million - 2.8 million
75% AR at 4 million - 3 million
80% AR at 4 million - 3.2 million
70% AR at 4.5 million - 3.1 million
75% AR at 4.5 million - 3.3 million
80% AR at 4.5 million - 3.6 million
70% AR at 5 million - 3.5 million
75% AR at 5 million - 3.75 million
80% AR at 5 million - 4 million
At least this year there is no bigger game than Splatoon 2 coming out on the Switch, so I've always expected it remain the biggest evergreen title on the Switch from 2017.
It might not reach 80% attach rate for 2017 but it will be close, it's just a matter if Nintendo can supply much more than 4 million to Japan for 2017.
Media Create Sales: Week 52, 2014 (Dec 22 - Dec 28)
[3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Ganso / Honke <RPG> (Level 5) {2014.07.10} (¥4.937) - 42.765 / 3.040.100 (+9%)
[3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi <RPG> (Level 5) {2014.12.13} (¥4.968) - 262.310 / 2.039.205 (-51%)
Code:
-------------------------------------------------------------
| | Yokai Watch 2 | Splatoon 2 | Difference |
| | (2011/02/26) | (2017/03/03) | |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
|Week| Weekly | LTD | Weekly | LTD | YW2 - S2 |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|
| 1| 1.316.707|1.316.707| 648.085| 648.085| -668.622|
| 2| 331.946 |1.648.653| 105.326| 753.411| -895.242|
| 3| 180.880|1.829.533| 74.235| 827.646| -1.001.887|
| 4| 120.682|2.093.992| 87.983| 915.628| -1.178.364|
| 5| 118.526|2.212.518| 34.108| 949.737| -1.262.781|
| 6| 77.465|2.289.983| 54.443|1.004.180| -1.285.803|
| 7| 68.762|2.358.745| 52.320|1.056.500| -1.302.245|
| 8| 63.401|2.422.146| 44.981|1.101.481| -1.320.665|
| 9| 47.065|2.469.211| | | |
| 10| 56.380|2.525.591| | | |
| 11| 66.847|2.592.438| | | |
| 12| 62.887|2.655.326| | | |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|--------------|